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MeasuringNon-EnergyBenefitsofIndustrialEnergyEfficiency:
THECURRENTFRONTIER
CHRISTOPHERRUSSELLVisi%ngFellow,ACEEE::crussell@aceee.org
incoopera%onwithNaviusResearchofCanada
AmericanCouncilforanEnergy-EfficientEconomywww.aceee.org
• ACEEE:anonprofit501(c)(3).Catalysttoadvance
energyefficiencypolicies,programs,technologies,investments&behaviors.
• 50staffinDC,MD,DE,MI,WA&WI• Focusonend-useefficiencyinindustry,buildings,
u%li%es&transporta%on• Otherresearchineconomicanalysis;behavior;na%onal,
state&localpolicy.• Funding:
◦ Founda%onGrants(52%)◦ ContractWork&Gov.Grants(20%)◦ ConferencesandPublica%ons(20%)◦ Contribu%onsandOther(8%)
OutlineforToday• Aspira%on:defineandrecognizethefullrangeofnon-energybenefits(NEBs)resul%ngfromenergyefficiencyimprovements
• Intermediatefindings
• Issuesandopportuni%esfordevelopingandusingsuchinforma%on
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WHYNEBs?PLANTLEVEL
• Realdollars,fullbenefitsofenergyimprovementsremainhidden
• NEBsvaluesaccruebeyondu%litybills– Strongeraccoun%ngofcashflowsandinvestmentreturns– Broaderorganiza%onalandbusinessimpacts– Broaderrangeofinterestedstakeholders– Increasedcredibility,defenseofenergymanagementfunc%ons
WHYNEBs?REGIONALENERGYMARKETS
• Realdollarsèenhancedjus%fica%onforcapitalinvestment
• Greaterbusinessreturnsègreatercompe%%venessandviabilityofu%lityratepayers
• Clearaccoun%ngofNEBsvalues:– Strongertransparencyofavoidedcostsforu%li%es– Closeralignmentofu%litytariffswithactualvalueandbenefitofenergyuse
– Improvedstructuringofdemand-siderebatesandincen%ves
IdealOutcome:ValueForecastsForecastthetypeandvalueofNEBsforanysingleprojectbasedonpastobserva%ons:
$NEBs=f(typeofenergymeasure,industryapplicaFon,etc.)
RaFo:NEBsperMMBtu
“Best”data?Alreadycollectedinlargevolume,formahedforinstantqueryingandinterpreta%on.
AllowsNEBses%matewithinboundsofsta%s%calcertainty.
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“NextBest”OutcomesIftheidealisnotavailable…
• Es%matetheeffortneededtoahaintheideal:– Sources?– Defini%onalconsistency?– Datastandardiza%on?– Timeandeffort?
• CensusofwhatcurrentlyISavailable.
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CRITICALASSUMPTIONS• INTEGRITYOFOBSERVATION.Changeinenergyconsump%oncanbewholly
ahributabletospecificprojects.Changeinenergyconsump%onandNEBsforanyoneprojectcanbeisolatedfromothersimultaneousprojectsinthesamefacility.
• INTEGRITYOFMEASUREMENT.Accurateconsump%onbaselinemeasures.Measurementofsavingsarestandardizedacrossallobserva%ons.
• NORMALIZATIONOFVARIANCE.Before/Anerconsump%onsarenormalizedforproduc%on,weather,etc.Whencomparingtwoormorefacili%es,adjustmentscanbemadefordifferencesinu%liza%onfactor(annualhoursofopera%on)andoverallsystemdesign.
• INTEGRITYOFDATACOLLECTION.Allfacili%eshavetheabilityandmo%va%ontomeasureandconsistentlydocumentproject-specificenergyusebeforeandanerEACHimprovement.(NOTE:U%lityprogramsrou%nelyrelyoncustomerself-measurementandrepor%ng.)Therearenoproprietaryissuesforbiddingthefacilitytoshareitsenergydata.
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2.3 ELECTRICALPOWER2.31 DEMANDMANAGEMENT2.311 ThermalEnergyStorage2.313 Scheduling2.319 Miscellaneous2.32 POWERFACTOR2.33 GENERATIONOFPOWER2.331 DC2.332 AC2.34 COGENERATION2.35 TRANSMISSION2.351 Transformers2.352 ConductorSize2.4 MOTORSYSTEMS2.41 MOTORS2.411 Opera%on2.413 Hardware2.414 MotorSystemDrives2.415 MotorMaintenanceandRepair2.42 AIRCOMPRESSORS2.422 Hardware2.423 Opera%ons2.43 OTHEREQUIPMENT2.431 Opera%ons2.432 Hardware2.7 BUILDINGSANDGROUNDS2.71 LIGHTING2.711 Level2.712 Opera%on2.713 Controls2.714 Hardware2.72 SPACECONDITIONING2.721 Maintenance2.722 Opera%on2.723 Hardware-Hea%ng&Cooling2.724 Hardware-AirCircula%on2.725 Evapora%on2.726 Controls2.727 Humiditycontrol2.729 Miscellaneous2.73 VENTILATION2.74 BUILDINGENVELOPE2.742 SolarLoading2.744 Infiltra%on2.749 Miscellaneous
NAICS INDUSTRYCLASSIFICATIONS311,312 Food,Beverages,Tobacco313,314 Tex%les&AlliedMillProducts315,316 Apparel,Leather,&AlliedProducts321 WoodProducts322 Paper323 Prin%ng&Related324 Petroleum&Coal325 Chemicals326 Plas%cs&RubberProducts327 NonmetallicMineralProducts331 PrimaryMetals332 FabricatedMetalProducts333 Machinery334 Computer&ElectronicProducts335 ElectricalEquipment,Appliances,andComponents336 Transporta%onEquipment337 Furniture&RelatedProducts339 Miscellaneous
33Electricityimprovementmeasures18Manufacturingindustries
--594dis%nctmeasure+industrymatches30replica%onsofeachmeasure+industry
--17,820observaFonsrequiredtoachievestaFsFcalvalidity.ThisisthenumberBEFOREaccounFngforregionalvariance.
U.S.D
OEINDU
STRIALASSESSM
ENTCE
NTERDA
TABA
SE
ENER
GYCONSERV
ATIONM
EASU
RECLASSIFICAT
IONSYSTEM
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HOWMUCHDATA?
Howclosetotheidealcanweget?
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OURAPPROACH• SurveyofNorthAmericanexperience• ACEEEcoveredU.S.contacts,NaviuscoveredCanada• Obtained51U.S.items,35Canadian.Sourcesincluded
u%li%esandalliedregulatorygroups,governments,academics,consultants,vendors,andliterature.
• “Items”includereports,databases,projectsummaries
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RESPONSETYPES• REAL,PROJECTSPECIFICDATA(mostlyCADDET)
Basedonpost-implementa%onmeasurement
• EXPERTESTIMATESBASEDONREALPROJECTANALYSES(IACDatabase)Centraltendenciesderivedfromlargenumbersofexanteprojectanalyses
• INDIRECTHARDDATASta%s%csdescribingfrequencyofNEBsobserva%on,paybackswith/withoutNEBs,etc.
• MEASUREMENTPROTOCOLSFormulaicmodelsforevalua%ngNEBsbasedonexpertconsensus
• PRACTICALINTERPRETATIONSProject-levelrulesofthumbforNEBes%ma%on
• DIOGNOSTIC&METHODOLOGICALTHEORYApproachesfores%ma%ngNEBs(programadministratoraudiences)
• ANECDOTALOBSERVATIONSReferencetospecificprojects’impacts,minimalquan%fica%on
• CONCEPTUALJUSTIFICATIONTheore%caldiscussionimpacts,noquan%fica%on
• DEAD-ENDsNoresponse,ornoinforma%ontoreport
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86RESPONSESThissummaryDOESNOTincludetheIACDatabasefindings(2,378U.S.projectsavingses%mates)
*IncludesmanyglobalexamplesNotenoughforsta%s%callysignificantmeasureofofcentraltendency,confidenceintervals,etc.asoriginallyenvisioned.
*
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30
DEADENDS
CONCEPTUALJUSTIFICATION
ANECDOTALOBSERVATIONS
DIOGNOSTIC&METHODOLOGICALTHEORY
PRACTICALINTERPRETATIONS
MEASUREMENTPROTOCOLS
INDIRECTHARDDATA
REALPROJECT-SPECIFICNEIDATA
CANADA U.S.
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ABOUTEXISTINGNEBsDATA• Majorityofdocumenta%onusedtosupportevalua%onsof
energyprogramcosteffec%veness(totalresourceplanning,societalimpactcosts,etc.)Dataarenotbuiltupfromindividualprojects(bohomup),butderivedfromaggregateprogramresults(topdown).
• Virtuallyalltop-downNEI/NEBmetrics/mul%pliersarederivedfromexpertconsensus,NOTfrommeasurementofactualinstalla%ons.
• Singlelargestdatasourceofferses%mates,notactuals(IACDatabase).16,300assessments,123,000projects
EXAMPLE:CADDET*CASESTUDIES*CentrefortheAnalysisandDissemina%onofDemonstratedEnergyTechnologies
• Dataclosesttomee%ngthecriteriasoughtbythisstudy• 26individualindustrial,electrotechnologyprojects.Ofthese:
– 77%quan%fykWhsavings– 4%quan%fynaturalgassavings– 42%describegrosssavings(allforms)indollars– 58%describeelectricitysavingsindollars– Dollarsavingssome%mesprovidedforvariousNEBs(from4%to31%)– 35%providesimplepayback– ThebalancesimplynotethatvariousNEBsexist,withoutquan%fica%on
Eventhis“best”datafallsFARshortofthequanFtyandqualityneeded
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EXAMPLE:INDIRECTHARDDATA:(Woodruff,etal)
hhp://www.leonardo-energy.org/sites/leonardo-energy/files/documents-and-links/EECORE%20Benefits.pdf
PERCENTOFRESPONDENTSCLAIMINGNON-ENERGYBENEFITS
NON-ENERGYBENEFIT
Woodruff,etalStudyN=63
Reducedmaintenancematerialcost 92%
Reducedmaintenancelabor 71%
PermanentCAPEXavoidance 33%
Avoidedprocurementcost 63%
Avoidedpurchasesofcarbonoffsets 10%
EnhancedPR,Image 44%
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EXAMPLE:MassachusehsTechnicalReferenceManualhhp://www.ma-eeac.org/Docs/8.3_TRMs/1MATRM_2013-15%20PLAN_FINAL.pdf
O&M($)SAVINGSPERUNITINSTALLEDOVERECONOMICLIFE
MEASURE LOW HIGH
VARIOUSLIGHTING&LIGHTINGSENSORFIXTURES(p.418) $0.41 $33.65
ANNUALNEIVALUEPERkWhSAVEDBYC&ILARGERETROFITPROJECTSCHPSystems Administra%vecosts,O&M $0.015
Prescrip%veLigh%ng Administra%vecosts,materialhandling,materialmovement,otherlaborcosts,O&M,salesrevenue,wastedisposal $0.027
Prescrip%veHVAC Administra%vecosts,othercosts,otherlaborcosts,O&M,rentrevenue $0.097
CustomHVACAdministra%vecosts,materialhandling,materialmovement,othercosts,otherlaborcosts,O&M,productspoilage,rentrevenue,salesrevenue,wastedisposal
$0.024
CustomLigh%ng $0.059
Refrigera%on $0.047
Other $0.056
FactorsbasedonresultsofvariousstudiesconductedbyKEMA,TetraTechandOp%malEnergyforMassachusehsprogramadministrators
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IACDATABASE:Highlights
MEASURE FREQANNUAL
kWhSAVED
NATGASmmBtuSAVED
PERMWh
OTHERFUELmmBtu
SAVEDPERMWh
NON-ENERGYCENTS
SAVEDPERkWh
RATIO:$NON-ELECSAVINGSPER$ELECSAVED
AIRCOMPRESSORS-Hardware 496 105,663,196 0 0 1.43 0.24
AIRCOMPRESSORS-Opera%ons 25 1,450,649 0 0 0.34 0.06
MOTORS-Hardware 188 37,641,217 0.47 0 0.43 0.12
MOTORS–Maintenance,Repair 23 3,889,539 0 0 0.84 0.14
MOTORS–SystemDrives 1,123 331,467,976 0.34 0.17 0.06 0.06
OTHERMOTORSSYSTEMS-Hardware 511 82,807,274 1.54 0.11 12.25 2.21
OTHERMOTORSYSTEMS-Opera%ons 12 1,255,260 0 0 16.07 2.68
Elec@$0.06/kWh,naturalgas@$6.00/mmBtuSavingsvaluesarees%matesprovidedbyexpertsacrossmanyprojectsRa%osarebasedonmul%pleprojectvaluesinsumma%onDataNOTadjustedforregion,annualu%liza%onfactors,overallsystemdesign,opera%ngstrategy,etc.
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AVAILABLENEBsFINDINGSIN2014
• Overwhelminglyanecdotaldata.Sta%s%calreliabilityremainselusive.
• IndirectmeasurementofNEBs:rulesofthumborprescribed“percentadders”sanc%onedbyu%lityregulators(7.5%to30%ofsavedenergyvalue)
• SmallsamplesofdescribefrequencyofobservedNEBsbytype,novalua%on
MOVINGFORWARD:Opportuni%estoGenerateSolidNEBsData• En%%es*interestedinimprovingNEBsdata• RecentNorthAmericanenergyprogramrebates&incen%ves
havegeneratedlotsofcustomprojectfeasibilitydata• Considerasyndicatedeffortacrosspar%cipa%ngu%li%esto
generateNEBdatafromprojectreports:– Pullfrompastreports,or– Developacollabora%vedataprotocoltoensureconsistentdata
collec%onacrossu%li%es,generatedatafromfuturecustomprojects
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*BCHydro,OntarioPowerAuthority,ManitobaHydro,AMECEnvironmentalInfrastructure,SaskEnergy,NRCanada,MichaelsEnergy(supportcontractorto22+u%li%es),Na%onalGrid,PGE,WSUClearinghouse
CONCLUSIONS• SufficientdatadoesnotyetexisttoreliablypredictNEBs
• “SecondBest”dataincludes:
– Expertes%matesacrossmanyproposals(IACdatabase,n=2,378since2000)andMassachusehsTechnicalReferenceManual.S<llverylimitednumberoftechnologies,industries
– Actualdataforaverysmallnumber(n=26)ofprojects(CADDET)– Surveysdescribingpercentoffacili%esdetec%ngNEBs
• Reconsider:SeekNEBstoimprovesimplepayback?Orseekbeherinvestmentmetricsforenergysavings?
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Energy PathFINDER .com ChristopherRussell
info@energypathfinder.com
@ENERGYpathfndr
THANKYOU!
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