View
216
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
1
Electoral College Reform: Evaluation and Policy Recommendations
Albert Qian, Alex Hider, Amanda Khan, Caroline Reisch, Madeline Goossen,
and Araksya Nordikyan
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Research Question
What are alternative ways to allocate votes in the Unites States, and which of these systems is best for
California?
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Background & Summary● Enacted during the
Constitutional Convention of 1787 to reconcile differing state and federal interests, giving leverage to less populous states while preserving the popular vote in the election
● The electors are chosen by the states “in such Manner as the Legislature may thereof direct” (U.S. Constitution, Article II, Section 1)
Source: (History.com)
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Background & Summary cont.
● The constitution gives each state a number of electors equal to its Senate membership (2 per state) and House of Representatives delegation (ranging from 1 to 52)
● The 23rd amendment gives 3 electors to the District of Columbia as well
Source: (History.com)
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
California’s System● California has the largest
amount of electors of any state, 55
● On or before October 1st of the presidential election year, each party’s nominee must submit a list of the 55 electors’ pledges to him/her, with each party having their own method of selecting electors (California Secretary of State)
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
California’s System cont.● For the Democratic party,
each congressional nominee and each US senate nominee designates one elector
● California operates on a winner-take-all system, with all 55 electoral votes going towards the candidate with the majority of the popular vote in the state (California Secretary of State)
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Current Usage● Democratic Primaries
○ Party requires all states to use Proportional Representation■ 15% threshold
○ 25% of votes are decided at-large○ The remainder are decided by district
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Current Usage
● Republican Primaries○ States choose how to divide their delegates, but
must use proportional if their primary is before March 14th■ Maximum 20% threshold, some use smaller
○ 10 base electors plus any bonus electors are decided at large
○ 3 delegates per congressional district can be decided by district or based on the statewide vote
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Benefits● Reduces the disparity between the popular vote and the share of
electors● Fewer wasted votes● Encourages political parties to campaign everywhere
Drawbacks● In general election could lead to a president winning with a very small
percentage of the vote● Provides a route for extremists● Can prevent winnowing
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Implementation● Primaries● General Election
○ State-by-state■ Colorado tried in 2004 with a ballot initiative,
lost 34.7% to 65.2%■ Main argument against it was that it takes
away Colorado’s power, would usually be split 5-4 so no candidates would focus on Colorado
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Benefits● Simple implementation● More representative → Higher voter turnout● Accurate geographic representation of country ● Not a drastic change● Gives Independents more of a chance● Doesn’t strip states of power
Drawbacks● Can heighten disparity between popular and electoral vote● Seemingly Republican bias● Gerrymandering
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
GerrymanderingGill v. Whitford (pending)
Current SCOTUS case striving to fix the
inequalities of gerrymandering
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Starting Point ● Consider changing how district
lines are drawn in nationwide
● Congressional district voting would need to start in a swing state rather than CA
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
25
Benefits
● Saves money○ Eliminates primary & runoff elections
■ Turnout issues ● Stronger voices ● Better candidate choices● More positive campaigns ● Eliminates “spoiler effect”● Accountable leaders● Broadens participation
Source: FairVote
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
26
Empirical Support: Four Bay Area Cities
● Higher Voter Satisfaction ● Less Candidate Criticism● Less Negativity ● High Voter Understanding● Overall Support
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
28
Drawbacks
● Administrative Burdens● Financial costs ● Implementation Time ● Confusing to Voters ● Example of Portland, Maine
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
30
California & Beyond
Source: Phone call with Madeline, Research Fellow at FairVote
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Methodology● Using data from the
past 15 presidential elections and reallocating votes using the proportional model
● Focus on main candidates, but all electoral votes are considered
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Elections from 1960-1972Name PV % EC New
Kennedy 49.72% 303 270
Nixon 49.55% 219 261
Other 0.73% 15 6
Name PV % EC New
Johnson 61.05% 486 320
Goldwater 38.47% 52 215
Other 0.48% 0 3
Name PV % EC New
Nixon 43.42% 301 234
Humphrey 42.72% 191 225
Other 13.86% 46 79
Name PV % EC New
Nixon 60.67% 520 332
McGovern 37.52% 17 205
Other 1.81% 1 1
1960
1964
1968
1972
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Elections from 1976-1988
Name PV % EC New
Carter 50.08% 297 272
Ford 48.01% 240 263
Other 1.91% 1 2
Name PV % EC New
Reagan 50.75% 489 280
Carter 41.01% 49 224
Other 8.24% 0 34
Name PV % EC New
Bush 53.37% 426 292
Dukakis 45.65% 111 245
Other 0.98% 1 1
Name PV % EC New
Reagan 58.77% 525 321
Mondale 40.56% 13 217
Other 0.67% 0 0
1976
1980
1984
1988
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Case Study: Election of 1968
19 18
3
1 1
3
22
1
10 10 5
4 14
1 1 1
3 2
22
2 2
2 2
2 1
3 2 1
2 2
2 2
2 2
3 2
4 2 1
4 3 1
4 5 1
5 4
5 5 2
2 2 2
3 3 4
6 5 1
12 212
46 4
2 2
1 2 4
13 14 2
2119 3
4 3 5
5 9
1 3
2 2
2 1
9 10 2
1 24 43
4 23 4 4 24 45
44
78 2
21
1 82
323
12 11 3
7 5 1
3 3 1
5 44
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Case Study: Election of 1980
24 16
3
2 1
2
22
14 11 1
5 13
2 1
4 2
13
3 1
2 1
2 1
4 3
2 1
2 1
2 1
3 1
4 2 1
5 3
4 5 1
4 3
6 5 1
3 3
5 5
5 5 1
13
79 1
2 2
4 3
13 10 2
1819 4
7 5
7 7
2 1
2 1
2 1
10 9 1
1 25 5
4 12 5 54 45
34
79 1
12
5 4
44
7 5 1
7 5 1
3 3
6 15
5
1
1
1
1
1 1
13
1
1
1
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics Elections from 1992-2004
1992
2000
1996
2004
Name PV % EC New
Clinton 43.01% 370 225
Bush 37.45% 168 203
Other 19.54% 0 106
Name PV % EC New
Clinton 49.23% 379 263
Dole 40.72% 159 225
Other 10.05% 0 50
Name PV % EC New
W. Bush 47.87% 271 264
Gore 48.38% 266 258
Other 3.75% 1 16
Name PV % EC New
W. Bush 50.73% 286 272
Kerry 48.26% 251 258
Other 1.01% 1 8
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Elections from 2008-20162008
2016
2012
Name PV % EC New
Obama 52.86% 305 288
McCain 45.60% 173 250
Other 1.54% 0 0
Name PV % EC New
Obama 51.01% 332 272
Romney 47.15% 206 259
Other 1.84% 0 7
Name PV % EC New
Trump 45.93% 304 253
Clinton 48.02% 227 261
Other 6.05% 7 24
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
18 25
2
Case Study: Election of 1992254
232
31 1
112
3
3
4
2
4
8
4
4
2
5
2
3
3
13
3
1
2
2
1
3
3
4
5
11
5
3
2
1
1
4
3
1
12
2
21
1
2
1
1
1
2
3
2
1
2
2
3
1
1
7
1
22
1
11 1
3 1
5
11
1
1
5
3
3
6
3
10
64
5
4
8
4
8
6
6
4
10
64
5
3
85
7
25
1
1
11
1
5
2
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
5
6
1
1
10
16
1
8
11
1
5 21
1
2
1
0
4
1
3
3
6
1
3
1
2
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics Case Study: Election of 2016
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
4
7
11
5
14
32
3
2
2
3
4
2
5
1
1
2
1
4
1
16
25
1
3
4
2
4
34
14
63
5
7 2
4 5
8
6
2
4
3
2
3
8
19
5
3
52
4
2
2
5
2
3
3
3
3
17
4
6
96
8
5
3
3
8
17
8
6
4
3 3
10
11
1
0
2
4
8
6
9
4
2
3
6
2
2
7
1
2
0
2
3
1
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Remapping Evaluation
Problems● Rounding to whole numbers can skew results ● Candidates can fail to reach 270 - requires reworking of
current system
Benefits● Elections more closely resemble popular vote percentages● Proportional model allows for viable third party candidates● Increases competitiveness of elections
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Survey Demographics
● What is their age?● What is their
ethnicity?● What is their
education level?● What is their average
household income?
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Survey Questions
● Focused on determining the knowledge surveyors already had of the Electoral College
● Wanted to determine their opinions on alternative methods
Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics
Policy Recommendations 1. Restructure system of drawing district lines2. Ranked Choice Voting should be used for local and state
elections nationwide3. Implement Proportional Representation in the General
Electiona. Utilize in Primary contests b. Republican Party either should require this, or each state
should switch to this method c. Start with a coalition of swing states: Florida,
Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina
d. If no one reaches 270, whoever garners the most electoral votes wins
Recommended