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Economic Trends Shaping the Future of HiringMariano Mamertino, Economist, Indeed Hiring Lab
Economist Dublin
Increasingly talent-driven economy
Integrating the unemployed
Two-tier labor market
1
2
3
4
5
6
6 Key Trends
Talent is on the move
Hidden pockets of talent
Search behavior and preferencesbridge generations
1. Increasingly talent-driven economy
A stronger EU economy
GDP Quarterly Index GDP Quarterly IndexGDP Growth Rate
q-o-q%
105
100
-2
-3
20082007 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016
95
2012
Index, 2007 = 100
forecast
0
-1
1
Source: European Commission Economic Forecast, Spring 2015
1.8
2.1
Economic confidence picking up
Source: European Commission
120
100
80
6020062005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Eurozone economic confidence jumps in September
Lower EU unemployment
Source: Eurostat
14%
8%
6%
4%20072006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
10%
12%
EU28 Euro area Germany France Italy United Kingdom
Unemployment rate, EU and selected countries (seasonally adjusted)
But also lower labor force participation
Source: Eurofound
85
EL HR IT ES BG MT SK RM PL HU IE BE PT CY EA18 SI EU28 FR LV LT LU CZ FI EE NL DK
UK AT DE SE
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
2008 Q2 2011 Q2 2014 Q2
EU28 employment rates for 20-64 year olds
2. Integrating the unemployed
Different outcomes across countries
Source: Eurostat
Unemployment rate, June 2015 (seasonally adjusted)
And disproportionately affecting the young
Source: Eurostat
GermanyLatvia
Netherlands
Estonia
Slovenia
DenmarkAustria
Greece
Lithuania
Ireland
EU28
Spain
Cyprus
FinlandSlovakia
Malta
Sweden
France
Hungary
Portugal
BelgiumUnited Kingdom
Poland
Croatia
Luxembourg
Romania
Ireland
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Youth (15-24) vs. overall unemployment (ratio)
1 41.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Italy
But unemployment is lasting longer
Source: Eurostat
Unemployment by duration, % of total unemployed
30
<1 1-3 6-12 12-18 18-24 24-48 >483-6
20
10
0
Short-term unemployed Long-term unemployed
2009 2014
European Union total
3. Two-tier labor market
College education rates are rising worldwide
Source: Eurostat
40%
30%
20%
10%
Lexembourg SwedenUnitedKingdom
Ireland Finland Belgium AustriaSpain France
Denmar
k EU15 ItalyGreece Germany
Portuga
l
Population aged 16-64 with tertiary education (%)
1995 2014
0%
High-skill workers are increasingly in control
Source: Eurostat
Unemployment rate by level of education attainment, EU28
25%
20%
15%
0%20062005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
10%
5%
Tertiary Upper secondary No education, primary and lower secondary All levels
Jobseeker interest in high-demand fields is growing
Source: Indeed Data
DigitalMarketing
HealthcareAdministration
JavaDeveloper
WebDeveloper
AthleticTrainer
InformationTechnology
TalentAcquisition
DataAnalyst
NetworkEngineer
InstructionalDesigner
30%22%20%13% 15% 17%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
More specialised often means more globalised
Source: Indeed Data
Clicks from jobseekers abroad as % total clicks
Italy Great BritainNetherlands Germany France Spain Ireland
All jobs Computer and mathematical
4. Talent is on the move
Talent is on the move and headed to EU
9% 70%of people search for jobs outside of their current
country
People are willing to relocate for the right opportunity
Source: Indeed Data
of clicks on our European websites come from within the EU
Top 10 most desirable countries
Source: Indeed Data
1
2
3
6
4
5
78
9
10
United States
United Kingdom
India
Japan
Germany
Italy
France
Canada
BrazilSouth Africa
Italy
United Kingdom
Germany
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
Ireland
India
All traffic flows
France
United Kingdom
United States
Italy
United Kingdom
Poland
India
United States
Java flows
Italy
United Kingdom
United States
Germany
Skilled workers search far and wide
Germany
United Kingdom
Poland
India
Germany
Austria
United Kingdom
Switzerland
France
United Kingdom
United States
Belgium
5. Hidden pockets of talent
Recent graduates
Source: Eurostat*share of employed graduates (20 to 34 years old) having left education and training in the past one to three years
82
78
74
7020072006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
72
76
80
Employment rate of recent graduates, EU28 (%) 2006-2014*
The rise of self-employment
Source: Eurostat
140
120
100
80
160
19961995 1997 19991998 2000 20022001 2003 20052004 2006 2007 2008 20102009 2011 20132012 2014
Germany France Italy Netherlands United Kingdom
Self-employment as a share of population aged 16-64
Increasing jobseekers’ interest for the gig economy
Source: Indeed Data
2013 -
01
2013-
07
2014-
01
2014-
07
2015-
01
2015-
07
Searches for gig jobs has increased dramatically over the past 2 years
Sh
are
of
all
job
searc
hes
Workers are getting older
Source: United Nations Population Division
20%
15%
10%
5%
25%
19551950 1960 19701965 1975 19851980 1990 20001995 2005 2010 2015 20252020 2030 20402035 2045
Share of population aged 65+ in Europe
Demography: a challenge and an opportunity
Source: European Commission, The Economist*Forecast †20-64 year olds
2013 2030
30
15
0
45
Italy PortugalGermany Sweden
Finlan
d EU28 France
0.6 8.1 -1.3
-
12.1
-
12.7-
6.2-0.9
Spain
Great
BritainNetherlan
ds Ireland
2.3
-
11.3 -4.7
-7.4
Old-age dependency ration %
% change in working population† 2013-30*
Older workers are already working until later in life
Source: Eurostat
11%
10%
9%
8%
12%
Employment rates of 65-69 year-olds, EU28 (%)
20042003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Increasing preference for flexibilityWorldwide, job searches for flexible work increased 38% over two years
Source: Indeed Hiring Lab
Germany France Italy Netherlands United Kingdom Portugal Spain
6. Job seeker behavior and preferences bridge generations
73.4% 71.3% 48.5%
Millennials Baby BoomerGeneration X
Mobile job search isn’t just a millennial habitShare of clicks that come from a mobile device
Source: Indeed Hiring Lab
Generational differences in job search are overhyped
Source: Indeed Hiring Lab
Baby Boomers Millennials Gen Xers
Less interest from millennials More interest from millennials
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance
Transportation and Material Moving
Production
Arts, Design and Entertainment
Business and Financial Operations
Sales and Related
Office and Administrative
0 102 4 6 8 12 14 150 5 10 20 25
And the same goes for gig jobs
Baby Boomers (Age 51-70)
Gen Xers (Age 31-50)
182.0
169.2
Millenials (Age 21-30)
158.7
0 50 100 150 200
Source: Indeed Hiring Lab
Increasingly talent-driven economy
Integrating the unemployed
Two-tier labor market
1
2
3
4
5
6
Talent is on the move
Hidden pockets of talent
Search behavior and jobseekers’ preferences bridge generations
6 Key Trends
Get the latest Indeed Hiring Lab report
indeed.co.uk/hiringlab
Q&A
Economic Trends Shaping the Future of HiringMariano Mamertino, Economist, Indeed Hiring Lab
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