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November 3, 2016
Economic Outlook for the U.S. and DC Metro Area
Terry L, Clower, Ph.D., Director Center for Regional Analysis
Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University
Presentation to
RSM Clients, Alumni & Friends Event
U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2017
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics August 2016
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6Forecast
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
%
Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
1982-Q3
1991-Q1
2001-Q4**
2009-Q2
% C
ha
ng
e in
GD
P*
Quarters After Trough *in 1992 or 2009 Chained Dollars ** Quarters 26+ include the 2009 Recession
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
* Quarters 26+ include the 2009 Recession Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
6.2%
8.3%
9.3%
12.2%
8.9%
11.5%
11.06%
12.7%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 242526 27 28
Pe
rce
nt
of G
DP
Quarters After Start of Recession
1982-Q3
1991-Q1
2001-Q4*
2009-Q2
Increasing Role of Exports % of GDP 28 Quarters Post-Recession
3.4%
4.3% 3.5%
4.2%
5.2%
3.0% 2.7%
3.6%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 242526 27 28
Pe
rce
nt
of G
DP
Quarters After Start of Recession
1982-Q3
1991-Q1
2001-Q4
2009-Q2
Decreasing Role of Residential Investment % of GDP 28 Quarters Post-Recession
* Quarters 26+ include the 2009 Recession Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. Leading Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mfg
N-Mfg
ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices
Source: Institute for Supply Management
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
Existing (Left Axis)
New (Right Axis)
U.S. New and Existing Home Sales
(000s) (000s)
Source: National Association of Home Builders (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing)
Growth in Total Consumption Outlays
3.1
3.8 3.5
3
2.2
-0.3
-1.6
1.9 2.3
1.5 1.5
2.9 3.2
2.7 2.6 2.3
2.6 2.5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics August 2016
Forecast > > > >
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – US Month-Over-Year (000s)
Sep = +2.4M
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average
Oct 22: 258K
Source: Department of Labor
(000s)
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics August 2016
Sep = 5.0
%
IHS Forecast 16 – 4.9 17 – 4.7 18 – 4.8 19 – 4.9 20 – 5.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16
Consumer Confidence
Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Expectations
Current Situation
1985 = 100
Expectations = 83.9 Current = 120.6
The Washington Economy
2010 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy
Local Serving Activities 34.8%
Non-Local Business 12.0 %
Total Federal 39.8%
Procurement 19.1%
Other Federal 10.7 %
Fed Wages & Salaries 10.0%
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Federal Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, 1980-2015
$ Billions
TOTAL = $1,235.9 Billion
Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov
79.9 76.3
69.1 71.1
82.5
Annual Job Change Washington MSA, 2002-2016
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
02
20
05
20
08
(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Professional & Business Services Washington MSA
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20
02
2005
2008
Feb
May
Aug
No
v
Feb
May
Aug
No
v
Feb
May
Aug
No
v
Feb
May
Aug
No
v
Fe
b
May
Aug
No
v
Feb
May
Aug
No
v
Feb
May
Aug
(000s)
Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sep-16 Total: 746.1
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Annual Month Over the Year
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Prof., Sci. & Tech. Svcs & Mgt. Admin. & Waste Mgt.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(000s)
Federal Government Washington MSA
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2002
2005
2008
Feb
May
Aug
No
v
Feb
May
Aug
No
v
Feb
May
Aug
No
v
Feb
May
Aug
No
v
Fe
b
May
Aug
No
v
Feb
May
Aug
No
v
Fe
b
May
Aug
(000s)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Sep-16 Total: 369.8
Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Job Change by Sector Sep 2015 – Sep 2016 Washington MSA
1
3
1
0
0
3
5
10
6
4
14
5
26
(20.0) (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 30.0
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total = 76,100
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5
2
1
0
10
24
34
97
43
65
83
-5
-7
-10
-12
-10
-8
-49
-34
-23
0
-24
-100 -75 -50 -25 0
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
Educ & Health Svcs
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery
(000s)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Total -181 Total 363
Aug 2008-Feb 2010 Feb 2010-Jul 2016
15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Sep 2015 – Sep 2016
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%Washington +2.4%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
August 6.5 – DC 4.9 – U.S. 4.0 – SMD 4.0 – MSA 3.3 – NVA
Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, 2009-2016
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)
47,989 47,150 46,096
36,871 43,070 47,495
4,495
(24,741) (27,907) (40,000)
(20,000)
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015
Net Domestic Migration
Net International Migration
Natural Increase
Source: Census Bureau
WDC Metro Area Population Components of Change
(60.0)
(40.0)
(20.0)
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Aug = -9.5%
Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes
Month-Over-Year 2000 – 2016, MSA
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.
Total Active Listings Per Sale Aug Each Year – Metro Area
0
2
4
6
8
10
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through Aug 2016
12-Month Moving Average
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Median House Sales Price Washington MSA
$399.3K Aug 2016
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(000s) (000s)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Washington MSA Building Permits
2003 – 2016, 3-Month Moving Avg
Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change
12-Month Moving Average
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
-4
-2
0
2
4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
%
Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: April 2016
U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 2007 – 2015 – 2020
(Annual % Change)
Washington
U.S.
%
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
%
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: April 2016
Economic Outlook (GRP), 2007-2020 Washington Area and Sub-State Areas
(Annual % Change)
DC
SM
MSA
NV
%
Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (000s)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
D.C. 13.0 6.5 14.7 14.1 9.7 10.6 8.9 8.2
Sub. MD 6.1 11.1 17.4 20.2 17.7 14.1 12.0 11.0
No. VA 8.9 1.3 27.3 25.5 23.6 15.9 13.7 12.6
REGION 28.0 18.9 59.4 59.8 51.0 40.6 34.6 31.8
Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (January 2016) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV.
Where are we?
• We are growing: • Some diversification
• Some catch-up
• Recent job growth across all wage levels
• Headwinds • Sequester?
• Further market shifts needed
• Cost of living
• Cost of doing business
• Mobility
• Access to capital
• Lack of regional branding, economic development cooperation
• Globally competitive?
• Advantages • Government Center • International Institutions • Connectivity to the World • Concentration of Leaders • High Quality-of-Life • Diverse Population • Higher Educational Services • Educated Work Force • High Labor Force Participation • Advanced Occupational
Specializations
Thank You
Questions
cra.gmu.edu
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