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Presentation of the project The database

Econometrics

Empirical paper

Abstention rate model - Being parent's model

Marine de Michiel Clothilde Camus

IENAC 10 T

11 mai 2012

Steve Lawford

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Presentation of the project The database

Index

1 Presentation of the project

2 The databaseGathering dataDescription of data

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Presentation of the project The database

Aims of the project

How can the abstention rate evolve against the elector'scharacteristics?

How can we create being parent's model?

According to you, which one is the hardest to model?

3/15

Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Presentation of the project The database

Aims of the project

How can the abstention rate evolve against the elector'scharacteristics?

How can we create being parent's model?

According to you, which one is the hardest to model?

3/15

Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Presentation of the project The database

Aims of the project

How can the abstention rate evolve against the elector'scharacteristics?

How can we create being parent's model?

According to you, which one is the hardest to model?

3/15

Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Presentation of the project The database

Gathering data

Index

1 Presentation of the project

2 The databaseGathering dataDescription of data

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Presentation of the project The database

Gathering data

The Google Form

Ingathering of information thanks to a Google Form

103 observations obtained in 10 days

5/15

Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Presentation of the project The database

Gathering data

The Google Form

Ingathering of information thanks to a Google Form

103 observations obtained in 10 days

5/15

Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Presentation of the project The database

Description of data

Index

1 Presentation of the project

2 The databaseGathering dataDescription of data

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Presentation of the project The database

Description of data

Age

Figure 1 : Age distribution

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Presentation of the project The database

Description of data

Age²

Figure 2 : Age² distribution

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Presentation of the project The database

Description of data

Gender

Figure 3 : Men/Women distribution

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Presentation of the project The database

Description of data

Marital status

Figure 4 : Marital status distribution

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Presentation of the project The database

Description of data

Family status

Figure 5 : Family status distribution

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Presentation of the project The database

Description of data

Commitment in political life

Figure 6 : Commitment in political life distribution

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Presentation of the project The database

Description of data

Town or countryside?

Figure 7 : Town/countryside distribution

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Presentation of the project The database

Description of data

Where in France ?

Figure 8 : Regions distribution

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Presentation of the project The database

Description of data

Level of studies

Figure 9 : Level of studies distribution

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

The abstention rate model

Index

1 The abstention rate model

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

The abstention rate model

Preliminary model

Figure 10 : Abstention rate against the age

Thanks to t-test, we reject the null hypothesis for H0:βage = 0

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

The abstention rate model

Preliminary model

Figure 10 : Abstention rate against the age

Thanks to t-test, we reject the null hypothesis for H0:βage = 0

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

The abstention rate model

Completion of preliminary model

Relevance of used parameters :

ABSTENTIONi =β0 + β1AGEi + β2AGEi²+ β3BAC4i + β4FRMETROPOLEi +β5SSACTIVITEi + β6VILLECAMPAGNEi + β7SUDOUESTi +β8PARISi + β9PARTIPOi + β10BACi + β11SEXEi

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

The abstention rate model

Completion of preliminary model (2)

Figure 11 : The abstention rate model

We can't conclude about the relevance of any parameter

maybe because there exists a dependence between some binary

variables5/7

Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

The abstention rate model

Completion of preliminary model (2)

Figure 11 : The abstention rate model

We can't conclude about the relevance of any parameter

maybe because there exists a dependence between some binary

variables5/7

Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

The abstention rate model

Trial on improving this model

Figure 12 : Another abstention rate model

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

The abstention rate model

Trial on improving this model (2)

Only FRMETROPOLE can be considered relevant

However, R² is very low

⇒We can't elaborate an abstention rate model

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

The abstention rate model

Trial on improving this model (2)

Only FRMETROPOLE can be considered relevant

However, R² is very low

⇒We can't elaborate an abstention rate model

7/7

Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

The abstention rate model

Trial on improving this model (2)

Only FRMETROPOLE can be considered relevant

However, R² is very low

⇒We can't elaborate an abstention rate model

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Being a parent's model Conclusion

Outline

1 Being a parent's model

Construction of the model

Comments on this model

2 Conclusion

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Being a parent's model Conclusion

Construction of the model

Outline

1 Being a parent's model

Construction of the model

Comments on this model

2 Conclusion

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Being a parent's model Conclusion

Construction of the model

Creation of the model

ENFANTS = β0 + β1MARIEi + β2PARISi + β3AGEi +β4AGEi²+ β5ABSTENTION i + β6BAC1i + β7BAC4i +β8VILLECAMPAGNE i + β9FONCi + β10SEXEi +β11FRMETROPOLEi

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Being a parent's model Conclusion

Construction of the model

Creation of the model (2)

Figure 13 : Being a parent's model

ENFANTS = −0, 569+ 0, 279MARIEi + 0, 013PARISi + 0, 029AGEi −0, 0001AGEi ²+ 0, 009ABSTENTION i − 0, 0359BAC1i − 0, 046BAC4i +0, 0255VILLECAMPAGNE i + 0, 119FONCi + 0, 0180SEXEi −0, 063FRMETROPOLEi

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Being a parent's model Conclusion

Comments on this model

Outline

1 Being a parent's model

Construction of the model

Comments on this model

2 Conclusion

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Being a parent's model Conclusion

Comments on this model

The relevant parameters

Figure 14 : Student's t-test

Relevant parameters: marital status, age, being or not a civil servant

R²≈80%

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Being a parent's model Conclusion

Comments on this model

The relevant parameters

Figure 14 : Student's t-test

Relevant parameters: marital status, age, being or not a civil servant

R²≈80%

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Being a parent's model Conclusion

Comments on this model

The relevant parameters

Figure 14 : Student's t-test

Relevant parameters: marital status, age, being or not a civil servant

R²≈80%

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Being a parent's model Conclusion

Comments on this model

Analysis of residuals

Figure 15 : Residuals

Our model is quite close to the reality, in spite of some

exceptions.

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Being a parent's model Conclusion

Summary

Tough to model the abstention rate

Collected data are expandable and good quality

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Being a parent's model Conclusion

Summary

Tough to model the abstention rate

Collected data are expandable and good quality

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper

Being a parent's model Conclusion

End

Thanks for your attention !

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Marine de Michiel, Clothilde Camus IENAC 10 T Econometrics Empirical paper