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Earth Resources —the Looming
Crunch!
by
Poorna Pal
Earth Resources can be …• Exhaustible or
Nonrenewable– Minerals
» Metallic: Ferrous, Nonferrous (or Polymetallic), Precious
» Nonmetallic: Industrial, Gemstones
– Energy Resources
» Radioactive Minerals» Fossil Fuels:
Coal, Oil and Natural Gas
• Perpetual or Renewable– Direct solar energy
– Indirect effects related to hydrological cycle, e.g., wind, tides, running water etc.
• Potentially Exhaustible/Renewable
– Fresh Air– Fresh Water– Fertile Soil– Biodiversity
Ocean ResourcesOcean Resources
• Resources and manResources and man• The ocean reservoirThe ocean reservoir
– Food resourcesFood resources– Mineral resourcesMineral resources– Energy resourcesEnergy resources
• Oceans and the environmentOceans and the environment– Climate changeClimate change– Environmental degradation and waste disposalEnvironmental degradation and waste disposal
Resources and ManResources and Man
• The Malthusian trapThe Malthusian trap
• The kinds of resourcesThe kinds of resources– renewable versus nonrenewablerenewable versus nonrenewable
• The nature of exhaustibilityThe nature of exhaustibility
SELF-ACTUALI-ZATION
SOCIAL
SECURITY
PHYSIOLOGICAL
ESTEEM
Food is the most basic of allour needs
MASLOW’S HIERARCHY OF NEEDS
Thomas Malthus
increases in geometric increases in geometric progression, the progression, the resources to sustain this resources to sustain this growth do not. Thus, if growth do not. Thus, if population grows too population grows too much faster than food much faster than food production, this growth production, this growth is checked by famine, is checked by famine, disease, and war.disease, and war.
Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)InIn “An Essay on the Principles of “An Essay on the Principles of Population”Population”, , published in 1798,published in 1798, Thomas Thomas Malthus argued that while populationMalthus argued that while population
In an essay first published* in 1798, Thomas Roberts Malthus argued that
This was entitled “An essay on the principles of population as it affects the future improvement of society”
*
“the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man”.
This should ordinarily signal disaster. Take the case of wolves and moose at Isle Royale National Park, Lake Superior, for instance.
Wolf p
opu
lation
1900
3000
4000
5000
1000
200050
30
40
20
10
1920 198019601940 20000
The sustainable levels forIsle Royale inhabitants
0
2
4
6
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Source: A. Maddison, Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992 (OECD, Paris, 1995).
Wo
rld
Po
pu
lati
on
(in
bil
lio
ns)
World’s population, a little over a billion at the time of Malthus, has multiplied over five-fold since then.
0
10
20
30
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Source: A. Maddison, Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992 (OECD, Paris, 1995).
Gro
ss
Wo
rld
Pro
du
ct
(tri
llio
n 1
99
0$
)Measured in inflation-adjusted 1990 dollars, world’s total output, now about $30 trillion, was about $700 billion at the time of Malthus.
18000
15
30
45
1850 1900 1950 2000
Rel
ativ
e to
th
e 18
20 l
evel
Source: A. Maddison, Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992 (OECD, Paris, 1995).
Economy
Population
Clearly, economic growth has been more strongly exponential than that of the demand (population growth) that created it.
0
2
4
6
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Va
lue
s r
ela
tiv
e t
o 1
95
0
Gross World Product
World Grain Production
World Population
0
2
4
61 2 3
World Grain OutputG
ross
Wo
rld
Pro
du
ct
0
1
2
3
Wo
rld P
op
ulatio
n
The growth in world’s grain output has been faster than population but world
economy has growth even faster.
Adam Smith (1723-1790),Adam Smith (1723-1790),
Wealth of NationsWealth of Nations (1776), that every (1776), that every individual in pursuing his or her own individual in pursuing his or her own good is led, as if by an invisible hand, good is led, as if by an invisible hand, to achieve the best good for all. to achieve the best good for all. Therefore any interference with free Therefore any interference with free competition by the government is competition by the government is almost certain to be injurious.almost certain to be injurious.
the British philosopher and economist, the British philosopher and economist, argued, in his celebrated treatise argued, in his celebrated treatise An An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of theInquiry into the Nature and Causes of the
First Green Revolution in this century took place in developed countries
during 1950-70.
First Green Revolution
Second Green Revolution has occurred in developing countries
since mid-1960s.
Second Green RevolutionFirst Green Revolution
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1940 1960 1980 2000
100
200
300
400 Pe
r Ca
pita
Gra
in A
va
ilab
ility (k
g p
er y
ea
r) W
orld
Gra
in P
rodu
ctio
n (b
illio
n to
ns p
er y
ear)
Despite the tremendous strides in world grain pro-duction, per capita grain availability has remained unchanged since the mid-1970s*.
*Lester R. Brown: “Facing the Prospect of Food Scarcity” in STATE OF THE WORLD 1997 (Worldwatch Institute, 1997)
the annual food production world-wide, including grains, poultry, seafood and meat,• is about 4 billion tons per year, or• about 4½ lbs per person per day.
Currently,
from ~1500 lbs per year in America, to
But per capita food consumption varies, worldwide,
~1000 lbs per yearin Mediterranean/Middle East region, and
about 500 lbs per year in India and South Asia.
An average American diet world-wide is clearly
impossible, without a proportionate
increase in the world’s food production.
5.75 billion 8 billion to 12 billionin 2025in 1995
World populationWorld population
Instead, our realistic option in theimmediate future is
an average Mediterranean diet, world-wide, if the population stabilizesat ~8 billion, but
an averageIndian diet,eventually, as the worldpopulation reaches 12-15 billion.
LessonLesson??Get used to the Indian diet!Get used to the Indian diet!
Alternative?Alternative?Grow more food!Grow more food!
That requires
•Land and•water
Being largelystenohumid as well asstenothermal,agriculturalcrops imposea rather restrictedrange of climatic conditions. Farmland therefore tends to be in short supply.
Mea
n A
nnua
l Tem
pera
ture
(C
) o
0
15
30
Mean annual precipitation (cm)
0 400
Tropical Forest
Des
ert G
rass
land
Arctic and alpinetreeless areas
100 200 300
Farmland
Coniferous Forest(green year-round)
Deciduous Forest(seasonal loss of leaves)
Oceans (71%)
Land(29%)
Most of theEarthiscoveredby water
“...water, water, every wherenor any drop to drink!”
In use
Potentialfarming
Unusable
Potentialgrazing
Cultivated11%
Grazed10%
14%Forests, semi-arid6% Arid
Ice, snow, deserts,mountains (51%)
8%Tropicalforests
Oceans (71%)
Land(29%)
andbarely a fifth of itis available forfarming related activities.
But the supply of land too is limited...
Economic growth exacerbates the demand for water, e.g.,
• with economic growth at 7-10% per year, poultry consumption is rising at the rate of 15% per year in India, Indonesia and China the water demands of this nontraditional industry are only likely to grow;
• we need about 250,000 gallons of water to produce a ton of corn, 375,000 gallons to produce a ton of wheat, 1,000,000 gallons to produce a ton of rice, and 7,500,000 of water to produce a ton of beef.
World Reserves of Nonfuel Minerals
Figure 12.1
12-2 Source: Data from Mineral Commodity Summaries 2000, U.S. Geological Survey.
Pegmatite
Figure 12.2
12-3 Source:Courtesy of Carla W. Montgomery.
Hydrothermal Ore Deposit
Figure 12.4B
12-4 Source: Photograph by W.R. Normark, USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.
Sulfur Deposition Around a Fumarole
Figure 12.5
12-5 Source: Photograph by J.C. Ratté, USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.
Distribution of Copper and Molybdenum Deposits
Figure 12.6A
12-6Source: Data from M. J. Jensen and A.M. Bateman, Economic Mineral Deposits, 3d ed. Copyright © 1981 John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York.
Precious-Metal-Producing Areas in the U.S.
Figure 12.6B
12-7 Source: Data from Mineral Commodity Summaries 1995, U.S. Bureau of Mines.
“Black Smoker Chimney”
Figure 12.7A
12-8 Source: Photograph by W.R. Normark, USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.
Banded Iron Formation
Figure 12.8
12-9 Source: Courtesy of Carla W. Montgomery.
Rock Salt
Figure 12.9
12-10 Source: Courtesy of Carla W. Montgomery.
U.S. Per-Capita Mineral Consumption
Figure 12.11
12-11 Source: Data from Mineral Commodity Summaries 2000, U.S. Geological Survey.
Aluminum Consumption Per/Capita
Figure 12.12
12-12 Source: World Resources Institute.
U.S. Share of Consumption of Selected Materials
Figure 12.13
12-13 Source: Data from Mineral Commodity Summaries 2000, U.S. Geological Survey.
U.S. Mineral Needs Supplied by Imports
Figure 12.14
12-14 Source: Data from Mineral Commodity Summaries 2000, U.S. Geological Survey.
U.S. Material Consumption Trends
Figure 12.15
12-15 Source: World Resources Institute.
Groundwater Sampling for Mineral Exploration
Figure 12.16
12-16 Source: After U.S. Geological Survey.
Mapping Distribution of Minerals by Air
Figure 12.18
12-17 Source: USGS Spectroscopy Lab.
Locating Possible Ore Deposits by Extrapolation
Figure 12.19
12-18Source: Data from C. Craddock, et al., Geological Maps of Antarctica, Antarctic Map Folio Series, folio 12, copyright 1970 by the American Geographical Society.
Manganese-Nodule Distribution on Sea Floor
Figure 12.20A
12-19Source: Data from G.R. Heath, “Manganese Nodules: Unanswered Questions,” Oceanus 25, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 37-41. 1982. Copyright © Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute.
Manganese Nodules off the Marshall Islands
Figure 12.20B
12-20 Source: Photograph by K.O. Emery, USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.
Consumption Growth of Plastics and Mineral
Figure 12.21
12-21 Source: U.S. Bureau of Mines.
Mining Activities in the U.S.
Figure 12.22
12-22 Source: Mineral Commodity Summaries 1996, U.S. Bureau of Mines.
Collapse of Land Over Copper Mine
Figure 12.23A
12-23 Source: Photograph by H.E. Malde, courtesy USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.
Subsidence Pits and Troughs Over Coal Mines
Figure 12.23B
12-24 Source: Photograph by C.R. Dunrud, courtesy USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.
Bingham Canyon, Utah Open-Pit Mine
Figure 12.24A
12-25 Source: Photograph courtesy of Kennecott.
Strip-Mining in South Africa
Figure 12.24B
12-26 Source: Photograph courtesy USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.
Spoil Banks, Rainbow Coal Strip Mine in WY
Figure 12.25A
12-27 Source: Photograph by H.E. Malde, USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.
Grading of Spoils in ND
Figure 12.25B
12-28 Source: Photograph by H.E. Malde, USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.
Revegetation of Ungraded Spoils
Figure 12.25C
12-29 Source: Photograph by H.E. Malde, USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.
Reclaimed Portion of Indian Head Mine
Figure 12.25D
12-30 Source: Photograph by H.E. Malde, USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.
Tailings Around Bingham Canyon
Figure 12.26A
12-31 Source:Courtesy of Carla W. Montgomery.
Erosion by Surface Runoff Near Bingham Canyon
Figure 12.26B
12-32 Source:Courtesy of Carla W. Montgomery.
1900 21002000
What will happen if world’s population and economic growth continue at the 1990 levels, assuming no major policy changes or technological innovations*
* Donella Meadows et al., Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future (Chelsea Green, 1992)
Population
Pollution
Resources
1950 2050
• is a problem if we take
– the Malthusian perspective, that exhaustibility limits socioeconomic growth;
– the neo-Malthusian perspective, that resource exploitation has environmental limits; or
– the Ricardian perspective, that progressive depletion raises costs and lowers quality; but
• poses no problem if we take the cornucopian view, that technological innovation will always provide substitutes and alternates.
The exhaustibility of extractive earthresources
C0
TE
0ekt = S
Depletion time based on the “Limits to Growth” scenario*
*Depletion time or the exponential index, TE, is computed here by solving this equation
Aluminium 2003 2027Chromium 2067 2126Coal 2083 2122Cobalt 2032 2120Copper 1993 2020Gold 1981 2001Iron 2065 2145Lead 1993 2036Manganese 2018 2066
MolybdeniumNatural GasNickelPetroleumPlatinumSilverTinTungstenZinc
2006 20171994 20212025 20681992 20222019 20571985 20141987 20332000 20441990 2022
S 5xS S 5xS
1980 2000 20402020 20601960
Five times the current stock
Current stock
The depletion time of selected resources based on the “Limits to Growth” scenario
Depletion of estimated reserves by the year 2100(H. Goeller & A. Zucker: Science, February 1984)
Cobalt
Manganese
Molybdenium
Nickel
150%
120%
249%
152%
Titanium 102%
Tungsten 236%
Zinc 581%
Reserve inadequacy of advanced material elements beyond the year 2000(S. Fraser, A. Barsotti & D. Rogich: Resources Policy, March 1988)
Arsenic 1.7
Barium 1.3
Bismuth 1.2
Cadmium 1.6
Gold 1.9
Indium 1.4
Mercury 1.1
Silver 1.5
Tantalum 1.4
Thallium 1.9
Tin 0.8
Measured Reserve
World demand
1900 1925 1950 20001975
200
100
Long-run inflation-adjusted world prices for nonferrous metals (aluminum, copper, tin and zinc)
1925 1950 1975 2000
20
Average world crude oil prices
10
OPEC
Oil40%Coal
22%
Naturalgas: 22%
NuclearBiomass: 4%
Hydel, Geothermal,Solar etc.
Oil33%
Coal27%Natural
gas: 18%
7%
5% 5%
6%
Bio-mass11%
World USA
1991 commercial energy use by source*
* Sources: US Department of Energy and Worldwatch Institute
0 20 40 60 80
Industrialsocieties
Advanced agri-cultural societies
Early agri-cultural societies
Hunter-gatherersocieties
Primitivesocieties
Food HomeFarming &
IndustryTrans-
portation
Daily per capita consumption in kcal
Average daily per capita energy use at various stages of human cultural development
28
60
70
80
90
100
1985 1990 199522
24
30
26
The U.S. oil production costs and proven reserves have
been falling
64
70
67
61 11
12
13
14
199519901985
Oil output per well is rising world-wide, though falling in the U.S.
dC(x)dx F(x)
sdPdt
P - C(x)P - C(x)dF(x)
dx
The basic equation for optimally exploiting a renewable resource is*
dxdt
x
F(x)
where
F(x) is the growth curve for stock of size x and dF(x)/dxits marginal productivity or its own rate of return,
F(x) [dC(x)/dx] is the marginal stock effect that measuresincrease in future costs of harvesting due to reduction instock caused by harvesting now,
P - C(x) is the net utility or gain of consuming now, and
s is that resource’s discount rate or shadow price.
*D. Pearce & R. Turner: ECONOMICS OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT (Harvester Wheatsheaf, New York, 1990)
dC(x)dx F(x)
sdPdt
P - C(x)P - C(x)dF(x)
dx
The Hotelling RuleThe Hotelling Rule* :* :
*Harold Hotelling: ‘The economics of exhaustible resources’, Journal of Political Economy (1931)
dPdt = s
1P
or Pt = Poest
TimeQuantity
Pt = Poest
Po
PB
Resourcestock
T
T
The Hotelling price path
Population or Demand
TotalProduct
StationaryState
ConstantReal Wage
In the long run, economic growth peters out, in the Ricardian* perspective, because rising demand forces society to exploit increasingly poorer quality of resources.
*David Ricardo (1772-1823)
dC(x)dx F(x)
sdPdt
P - C(x)P - C(x)dF(x)
dx
Take the basic equation for optimal resource exploitation:
and set
• dF/dx = -(dF/dC)(dC/dx)
• dC/dx = -, a constant (note that Casx)
and treat [P - C(x)] = /H, where denotes profit and H is the harvest, i.e., this ratio too is a constant.
Then
dF/dC + (H/)F = s/ - (H/) (dP/dt)
so that,
writing Fo = (H)s - (1/) (dP/dt),
we have
(F/Fo) = 1 - e-(H/)C
i.e., F grows asymptotically with C, as thedata on worldwide oil production and pro-duction costs clearly show.
As predicted by theory, the extraction costs indeed rise exponentially
0
20
40
60
80
0 4 8 12 16 20
Cost (US$ per barrel)
1994 World Demand
The Exponential Fit
Also note thatFo = (H)s - (1/) (dP/dt)translates into(dP/dt) - sP = - (Fo + sC)so that, writing Po = (Fo + sC),we have
P/Po = 1 - est
i.e., unlike the Hotelling Rule of rise in the prices, technology induced growth impliesa decline in the prices.
Depletion Time (TE) =
The time when 80% ofthe resource is used up
80%
Time
The depletion curve for a typical nonrenewable resource
1.00
1850
4
Actualproduction
Cummulative production as share of the earlier resource estimate
Cummulativeproduction as the
share of currentresource estimate
0
1
2
3
19501900 2000 20500.00
0.25
0.75
0.50
U.S. oil production (1857-1995)
Fraction used up
Fraction remaining
f
1 - f
eA+Bt=
=
f
1 - fWrite =f1
Then
y = ln f1 = A + Bt
where f1 are the observed data as function of time (t), so that the constants A and B can be found by linearregression analysis.
0
1
2
3
4
1950 20502000
Actual Production
1995 resource estimate1986 resource estimate
Logistic or Hubbard curves for the U.S. oil output and
prospects using
Estimates of the world petroleum
reserves
1,500 2,000 2,500 billion barrels
Numb
er of
estim
ates
0
8
6
4
2
0
20
40
60
1900 2000 2100
Hubbard curves for world petroleum output and prospects assuming
resource estimates of3.0 x 1012 barrels
2.2 x 1012 barrels
1.4 x 1012 barrels
ActualProduction
Wolf population
1900
3000
4000
5000
1000
200050
30
40
20
10
1920 198019601940 20000
Wolves and Moose at the Isle Royale National Park, Lake Superior - an example of “sustainable growth”
FranceU.K.
China
Sweden
Russia
USA
BrazilItaly
Singapore
0.1
1
10
100
0.01 0.1 1 10
Mexico
GermanyIndia Japan
NorwaySwtizerland
Saudi ArabiaNetherlands Australia
Spain
GDP (PPP) in trillion US $
Economic prosperity and energy con-sumption are closely correlated
0.03
0.1
1
3
0.1 1 10
0.3
30.30.03
USA
China
Japan
Russia
GermanyIndia
U.K.
UkrainePoland Canada
Italy
France
Iran
Brazil
MexicoSouthKorea
Australia
SouthAfricaNorth
Korea
Kazakstan
...and so are economic prosperity and carbon emmissions
GDP (PPP) in trillion US $
Thank You!
Carrying Capacity and Sustainable GrowthMoose and Wolves on the Isle Royale National Park, Lake Superior
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Moo
se p
opu
lati
on
Carrying Capacity and Sustainable GrowthMoose and Wolves on the Isle Royale National Park, Lake Superior
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Moo
se p
opu
lati
on
Carrying Capacity and Sustainable GrowthMoose and Wolves on the Isle Royale National Park, Lake Superior
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Moo
se p
opu
lati
on
Wolf p
op
ula
tion
Carrying Capacity and Sustainable GrowthMoose and Wolves on the Isle Royale National Park, Lake Superior
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Moo
se p
opu
lati
on
50
25
Wolf p
op
ula
tion
Carrying Capacity and Sustainable GrowthMoose and Wolves on the Isle Royale National Park, Lake Superior
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Moo
se p
opu
lati
on
50
25
Wolf p
op
ula
tion
Carrying Capacity and Sustainable GrowthMoose and Wolves on the Isle Royale National Park, Lake Superior
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Moo
se p
opu
lati
on
50
25
Wolf p
op
ula
tion
Carrying Capacity and Sustainable GrowthMoose and Wolves on the Isle Royale National Park, Lake Superior
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Moo
se p
opu
lati
on
50
25
Sta
te o
f th
e W
orld
Resources
PopulationIndustrial Output
1,900 2,0001,950 2,1002,050
Food
Oil (39%)Natural gas (24%)
Coal (32%)Hydro-electric (2.5%)
Nuclear(2.5%)
Worldwide commercial energy consumption, 1989*
*Data from World Resources Institute, 1992
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