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Dr. Richard N. Palmer, Margaret A. Hahn, Dr. Azad Mohamadi, Dennis Kessler, Joe Dvorak
Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of Washingtonpalmer@u.washington.edu
http://maximus.ce.washington.edu/~palmer/
A Computer Assisted Decision Support System
Portland Water Bureau’s Storage and Transmission Model (STM)
Endangered Species
Growing Urban Demands
Climate Variability
Planning Process Drivers for IMP
Stakeholder Interest Wholesale contract renewal (2005) Water shortage Governance Issues
(Wilsonville Tigard) Clackamas Consortium to evaluate
transmission Reliability/Vulnerability
Potential Role from “Strategic Direction and Mission”
Be the regional water supplier
Supply Multnomah Counties and
others as water is available
Serve primarily Portland
Serve the historic service base
IMP Objectives
Provide cost data for contracts Examine emergency supplies Address aging infrastructure Develop evaluation procedures Identify preferred alternatives
During the past 50 years, our means of water resource evaluation has changed remarkably
The Evaluation of Supply Alternatives
Qua
lity
of L
ife
Years
Portland System
Serves ~ 840,000 people Largest system in state Bull Run
Watershed (215 MGD capacity)
Columbia South Shore Wellfield 1984 (90 MGD capacity)
Bull Run Watershed national forest
reserve in 1892
First pipeline built in 1895, 24 miles
long.
Dam 1 built in 1929
Conduit 4 built to 100 mgd
Dam 2 built in 1962
Bull Run System
Dam 1
Dam 2
Bull Run Lake
Modeling Approach
Who will use the model, how will it be used?
Facilitate evaluation of a wide range of alternatives
Reflect issues of importance to the degree possible
Shared Vision of resources, operations and alternatives
Modeling Approach
Requires modeling environment that is flexible and robust
Built conjunctively with Bureau PWB must understand strengths
and limitations of model Ownership must be shared by
PWB and model developers
Questions to be addressed
What is the safe yield? What is yield of Dam 3? What is the yield of groundwater? What are the impacts of operations? Is transmission adequate? Should in-town storage be increased? In what year is increased supply
required?
Primary Alternatives
Conservation Expansion of In-Town Storage
and Transmission Groundwater Dams ASR Changing of Operating Rules
Portfolio of Alternatives
EXISTING
Conservation Groundwater Dam 3Expansion
WEST
EAST
REGIONAL EXISTING,
DAM 3, MEDIUMCONSERVATION
EXISTING,
HIGHCONSERVATION
EXISTING, MEDIUM
CONSERVATION
REGIONAL, DAM3, HIGH
CONSERVATION
Software Selection
What the model does
Tracks daily movement of water Evaluates future water
demands In 30 seconds:
evaluates 500,000 variables for any year from 1940-1998 for any forecasted period for 60
years
Key Metrics
Adequacy of Supply
Storage Remaining
Groundwater Used, ratio of use
Percent Reliability
Transmission Shortfall
First decision support tools
Notice attention to detail!
Notice stakeholder involvement and
outreach program in action
Now, lets see, which button was I supposed
to push for the paper feed?
PWB Team
Scenario Process
Two iterations were used Describe plausible futures with
emphasis on different goals Develop 20 scenarios, evaluate, then
further investigate 9 Bring together staff members to view
impacts of scenarios with the STM Note surprises, counter-intuitive results,
and insights
Lessons learned
Conservation will play an important role Conduit 5, Powell Butte Reservoirs I&II,
Upgrade CSSW, Treatment, Westside ASR Use of groundwater drives Dam 3 Dam 3 could supply regional customers If no expansions in BR, then groundwater More customers with new surface sources
requires increased groundwater use
Future Activities
Automate STM Develop a Bureau systems
approach to modeling Integrate models where
appropriate Explore role of climate change
(climate variability)
Identify Problems and Objectives
FormulateTeams
Define the Status Quo
FormulateAlternatives
EvaluateAlternatives
Implementthe Plan
Exercisethe Plan
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