Dr . Ada Ignaciuk , Agricultural Policy Analyst ,

What are the most efficient measures of mitigation and adaptation to produce more in a sustainable manner?

Dr . Ada Ignaciuk,Agricultural Policy Analyst, Environmental Division of Trade and Agriculture Directorate, OECDEmail: Ada.Ignaciuk@oecd.org

Scenario analysis- socio-economic developments- climate- technology projections

1) OECD’s short-medium term projections

‘OECD-FAO Outlook’2) OECD’s long term projections

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

• Agricultural Outlook - a set of conditional projections published in an OECD-FAO annual report

• Comprehensive, dynamic partial equilibrium model

• Dedicated OECD-FAO web page: www.agri-outlook.org

Co-operators Program

• Involve member governments in global projection process– to link expertise world wide and build consensus on

emerging national and global issues – Participate in annual world commodity projection

– Access to data, models, commodity experts

– Participate in analysis projects

– Access to capacity building – training

– Tap global expertise

5

Climate damages

OECD (2010)

6

Climate Change costs

7

Market outlook: prices

OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate

Whe

at

Coars

e gr

ains

Rice

Oilsee

ds

Prot

ein

mea

ls

Veget

able

oils

Raw su

gar

BeefPo

rk

Poul

try

Sheep

Butte

r

Chees

eSM

PW

MP

Ethan

ol

Biodi

esel

Fish

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

% change in average (real) prices 2002-11 to 2012-21“2012-21 prices above last decade”

8

Prices

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Refe

rence

IPS

L_LP

JM

L

HA

DLE

Y_LP

JM

L

IPS

L_D

SS

AT

HA

DLE

Y_D

SS

AT

Refe

rence

IPS

L_LP

JM

L

HA

DLE

Y_LP

JM

L

IPS

L_D

SS

AT

HA

DLE

Y_D

SS

AT

Refe

rence

IPS

L_LP

JM

L

HA

DLE

Y_LP

JM

L

IPS

L_D

SS

AT

HA

DLE

Y_D

SS

AT

Refe

rence

IPS

L_LP

JM

L

HA

DLE

Y_LP

JM

L

IPS

L_D

SS

AT

HA

DLE

Y_D

SS

AT

Refe

rence

IPS

L_LP

JM

L

HA

DLE

Y_LP

JM

L

IPS

L_D

SS

AT

HA

DLE

Y_D

SS

AT

Refe

rence

IPS

L_LP

JM

L

HA

DLE

Y_LP

JM

L

IPS

L_D

SS

AT

HA

DLE

Y_D

SS

AT

Refe

rence

IPS

L_LP

JM

L

HA

DLE

Y_LP

JM

L

IPS

L_D

SS

AT

HA

DLE

Y_D

SS

AT

Refe

rence

IPS

L_LP

JM

L

HA

DLE

Y_LP

JM

L

IPS

L_D

SS

AT

HA

DLE

Y_D

SS

AT

Refe

rence

IPS

L_LP

JM

L

HA

DLE

Y_LP

JM

L

IPS

L_D

SS

AT

HA

DLE

Y_D

SS

AT

Refe

rence

IPS

L_LP

JM

L

HA

DLE

Y_LP

JM

L

IPS

L_D

SS

AT

HA

DLE

Y_D

SS

AT

Refe

rence

IPS

L_LP

JM

L

HA

DLE

Y_LP

JM

L

IPS

L_D

SS

AT

HA

DLE

Y_D

SS

AT

FRUITS MAIZE POTATOES MILLET OTHER GRAINS RAPESEED RICE VEGETABLES WHEAT BEEF POULTRY

Pric

e ch

ange

in 2

050

com

pare

d to

20

05C

limat

e ch

ange

eff

ect

9

Zooming into Mexican (irrigated) yields

IPSL LPJML IPSL DSSAT HADLEY LPJML HADLEY DSSAT

2010 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050Fruit 18 24 -16 -20 -12 -23Maize 5,4 10,3 14 -19 11 -14Other grains 3,2 5,5 -6 -15 -6 -16Potatoes 31 43 -15 -20 -12 -22Sorghum 5 6,7 1 -9 2 -5Sugar cane 88 122 18 -21 19 -17Vegetables 18 22 -14 -20 -12 -22Wheat 4,7 5,2 -15 -29 -9 -36

Reference (%) as compared to baseline

IRRIGATED Yields

10

Land use

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

IPSL_LPJML IPSL_DSSAT IPSL_LPJML IPSL_DSSAT IPSL_LPJML IPSL_DSSAT IPSL_LPJML IPSL_DSSAT

Maize Wheat Rice Millet

% o

f ch

ang

e co

mp

ared

to

th

e R

efer

ence

sce

nar

io

North America

Europe

Australia & New Zealand

Sub Sahara Africa

Middle East & North Africa

Southeast Asia

11

Autonomous adaptation e.g. changing cropping patterns, changing varieties

Changes in management practices e.g. no-till

More efficient management of inputs

Improved water management

Adaptation -on field Adaptation - different governance

Provide information on e.g. weather and provide advisory services

Biofuels

R&D

Improved soil management

Mitigation and adaptation plans

Diversify livelihood

Insurances

Shift production

Changes in management of manure

Mitigation

Adding legumesAgroforestry

12

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

No mitigation

With mitigation

No mitigation

With mitigation

LPJML DSSAT LPJML DSSAT No mitigation

with mitigation

No mitigation

with mitigation

No mitigation

with mitigation

No mitigation

with mitigation

NCAR CSIRO IPSLM HGEM 2.5 � C increase 2.5 � C increase HadCM3 HadCM3 CSIRO

Developed Developing Developing OECD Developed Developing Developed Developing

2030 2050 2050 2055 2080

Millio

n U

SD

(2

00

5 U

SD

)

Series6

Public R&D

Private R&D

Total Infrastrucuture

Infrastrucuture (Roads)

Infrastrucuture (Water)

Flow Adaptation

Stock Adaptation (including R&D and Infrastrucuture)

78,037 78,03734,227 34,227

UNFCC (2007) OECD (2013) de Bruin (2013) IIASA (2007)World Bank (2010)

13

Conclusions

• Climate change will affect agricultural production; but still many uncertainties

• To align adaptation and mitigation policies now, across different governance levels

• Holistic approach to climate policies to avoid maladaptation practices

• Climate change may be a challenge for some, but opportunities for others

16