Does Shale Gas have a role in Annex 1 climate change commitments? john.broderick@manchester.ac.uk...

Does Shale Gas have a role in Annex 1 climate change commitments?

john.broderick@manchester.ac.uk

Prof Kevin Anderson and Dr John BroderickTyndall Manchester

www.tyndall.manchester.ac.uk

Key Point

Natural Gas (inc. shale gas) is not a low carbon fuel

Context

The international energy agency’s (IEA) view on climate change

on track for a 3.5°C rise by 2040 (i.e. 4.2°C relative to preindustrial)

“When I look at this data, the trend is perfectly in line with a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have

devastating consequences for the planet.”

“we have 5 years to change the energy system –

or have it changed”

Fatih Birol - IEA chief economist

UNFCCC

“stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”

Article 2

What is dangerous?

‘To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent with science and on the basis of equity’» Copenhagen Accord (2009/10), Cancun Agreement (2010/11)

‘… must ensure global average temperature increases do not exceed preindustrial levels by more than 2°C’» European Commission’s annual communication (2009)

What is mitigation challenge?

To hold cumulative emissions of CO2 in the atmosphere at

levels that provide a high probability (90%-99%) of staying below a 2°C rise in global surface temperature

What emissions pathways fits with 2°C?

In 2012 it is too late for a high probability of staying below 2°C i.e. already blown the budget for our existing commitments

So lets take an outside chance (<50:50) chance of ‘avoiding dangerous CC’

With significant reductions in deforestation & halving food-related emissions

What is left for emissions from energy? i.e. the pathway for 50:50 chance of avoiding dangerous climate change

Year

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtCO2yr-1

0

10

20

30

40

50

Increasing probability

of exceeding 2°C

… for energy emissions?(with 2020 peak & a high probability of exceeding 2°C)

20502030

Year

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtCO2yr-1

0

10

20

30

40

50

… and for energy emissions?(with 2020 peak & a high probability of exceeding 2°C)

10-20% annual reductions

20502030

Globally: no emission space for coal, gas, or shale – even with CCS!

… and for Annex 1 nations (~OECD)?

40% reduction by 2015 70% reduction by 2020 90+% reduction by 2030

Why such different conclusions?

Context Take science-based view of 2°C (i.e. cumulative emissions not 2050 targets) ‘Fair’ division of emissions between Annex 1 & non-Annex 1 Explicit account of global deforestation and food emissions

NB: decarbonising power sector is not the same as “avoiding dangerous climate change”

Impact Timeframe of transition to low/zero carbon energy system significantly reduced Gas not compatible with such a science-based timeframe Gas with CCS only compatible with very high capture (over 95%)

NB: research priorities should be genuinely low or zero carbon energy technologies

For unconventional gas

Non-Annex 1Part of rapid carbon intensity reduction if upstream emissions are managed… but must lock out other fossil fuel infrastructures & enable CCS

Annex 1 Incompatible with even weak version of 2°C commitments

- inc. with CCS» Rapid reduction in energy demand; and» increase in very low/zero energy supply necessary