Do Potential Studies Accurately Forecast What is Possible ......Sep 21, 2015  · Resource...

Do Potential Studies Accurately Forecast What

is Possible in the Future?

Are we Mislabeling and Misusing them?

Presented at the ACEEE Energy Efficiency as a

Resource Conference

Little Rock, Arkansas

September 21, 2015

Philip Mosenthal

Optimal Energy

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Is This Really “Maximum Achievable”?

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2.76% (MA 2014)

3.40% (RI 2014)

1.30% (MA 2010)

1.67% (MA 2011)

2.07% (MA 2012)

2.34% (MA 2013)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

- 5 10 15 20 25

Ave

rage

An

nu

al S

avin

gs (

% o

f Sa

les)

Study Time Period (Years)

Electric Savings Maximum Achievable Potential (% of Sales)

Midwest Northeast South West Median MA 2014 RI 2014 MA

Sir Roger Bannister—May 6, 1954

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5

6

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Do Codes and Standards Eliminate Potential?

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Why are we Assuming Suboptimal Programs?

Recent Solar Forecasts—Chasing Reality

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Mosenthal & Loiter, National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency: Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies, U.S.

EPA, 2007

Is there an alternative?

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Mosenthal & Loiter, National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency: Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies, U.S.

EPA, 2007

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Mosenthal & Loiter, National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency: Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies, U.S.

EPA, 2007

Pearl Harbor—December 7, 1941

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Optimal Energy, Inc.

10600 Route 116, Suite 3

Hinesburg, VT 05461

802-482-5607

Mosenthal@optenergy.com

Philip Mosenthal