View
234
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
1/56
Disaster Management I:Risk Analysis & Contingency
Planning
Nik Ahmad Shaiffudin Bin Nik HimMMC: 35241
MD, MMed (Emerg.Medic ine, USM), AM(Mal)nikshaiffudin@unisza.edu.my
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
2/56
Develop the understanding of disaster medicine and masscasualty incident management
Subject contents (Disaster management I):
Risk analysis and contingency plan
Performance criteria :
Discuss the principles of risks analysis and contingency
plan Perform disaster/ MCI risk analysis
Objective
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
3/56
1. Understand the principles & practice of disaster
management/ MCI following the national disaster
response framework / NSC Directive 20.2. Able to perform risk analysis for disaster/ MCI
Learning Outcome
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
4/56
Presentation Outlines1. Introduction
2. Risk Analysis
3. Contingency planning
4. Summary
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
5/56
Require risk information
....... for Analysis & Communication.....
and Risk Management
Introduction
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
6/56
TYPES OF DISASTER/MCI
1. NATURAL DISASTERS
2. TECHNOLOGY & HUMAN CAUSED
(MAN-MADE)
3. HYBRID OR MIXED
The Risk...
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
7/56
Term & Definition
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
8/56
Stakeholders
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
9/56
The Guidance
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
10/56
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
11/56
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
12/56
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
13/56
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
14/56
e.g Framework for Action
1. Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and alocal priority with a strong institutional basis forimplementation
2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risksand enhanceearly warning
3. Use knowledge, innovation and education to build aculture of safety and resilience at all levels
4. Managethe underlying risk factors
5. Strengthen disaster preparedness for effectiveresponse at all levels
Disaster Risk Management
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
15/56
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
16/56
Disaster Risk Management
Risk Analysis1.Hazard Identification
2.Hazard Assessment
3.Elements at risk/ Exposure4.Vulnerability Assessment
5.Risk Estimation
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
17/56
Risk Governance Framework
The aim of Riskgovernance is to
involve the
various
stakeholders
within all
aspects of riskmanagement.
Risk
communication
is central.
The International Risk Governance Council Risk Governance Framework
( Source: IRGC, 2006)
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
18/56
Risk communication
who (Source)
says what(Message)
via what medium(Channel)
to whom(Receiver)
and directed atwhat kind ofchange (Effect).
Predecisional
processes
Environmental
cues
Social context Information
sources
Information
channels
Message
content
Receiver
characteristics
Risk identification: Is there a
real threat I need to payattention to?
Risk assessment: Do I need to
take protective action?
Protective action search: What
can be done to achieveprotection?
Protective action assessment:
What is the best method of
protection?
Protective action
implementation: Does
protection action need to betaken now?
Information needs assessment:
What information do I need?
Communication action
assessment: Where and how canI obtain this information?
Communication action
implementation: Do I need the
information now?
Risk communication is the interactive exchange of information about risksamong risk assessors, managers, news media, interested groups and the general
public.
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
19/56
e.g Risk communication: Netherlands
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
20/56
Information and communication
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
21/56
Risk visualization
1. Statistical information per administrative unit (country, province, municipality,
or neighbourhood)2. Risk curves
3. Mapswhich shows the spatial variation of risk over an area
4. WebGIS applications that allow the user to combine different types of
information, and display information such as:
1. Spatial Data Infrastructure / Clearinghouses, where through internet basic GIS data canbe shared among different technical and scientific organizations involved in hazard and
risk assessment.
2. Animationsshowing the spatial and temporal distribution of hazards and risk
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
22/56
What to visualize for whom?Stakeholder Purpose Type of risk visualization
General public General information on risks over largeareas Basic WebGIS applications in which they can overlay thelocation of major hazard types with high resolution imageryor topographic maps.
Awareness raising Animations (what if scenarios)Community-based DRR projects Simple maps of the neighborhood with risk class, buildings
and other featuresBusinesses Investment policies, and location planning General information about hazards and risks in both
graphical and map format.
Technical staff of(local) authorities
Land use regulation / zoning Map with simple legend in three classes: constructionrestricted, construction allowed, further investigationrequired.
Building codes Maps indicating the types of building allowed (building type,number of floors)
Spatial planning Hazard maps, with simple legends related to probabilitiesand possible consequences
Environmental Impact Assessment Maps and possible loss figures for future scenarios
Disaster preparedness Real time simple and concise Web-based information inboth map and graphical forms
Decision makers /local authorities
Decision making on risk reduction measures Statistical information, loss exceedance curves, F-N curves,maps.
Investments Economic losses, projected economic losses for future
scenarios.Strategic Environmental Assessment General statistical information for administrative units.
NGOs Influence political decisions in favor ofenvironment and sustainable development
This can vary from simple maps to Web-based applications,depending on the objectives of the NGO
Scientists / technicalstaff of hazard dataproducers
Hazard information exchange to public andother agencies
WebGIS applications where they can access the basicinformation
Exchange of basic information for hazardand risk assessment
Spatial Data Infrastructure / Clearinghouse for exchanginginformation
Insurance industry Development of insurance policy Loss Exceedance Curves of economic losses, F-N curves
Media Risk communication to public, Animations of hazard phenomena that clearly illustrate theproblems.
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
23/56
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
24/56
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
25/56
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
26/56
Risk visualization: example 1.
http://www.grid.unep.ch/activities/earlywarning/preview/index.php
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
27/56
Risk visualisation: example 2http:// www.risicokaart.nl
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
28/56
Web-GIS: RiskCityhttp://geoserver.itc.nl:8181/cartoweb3/WebRiskCity/WebRiskCity.html
Risk Atlases: example
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
29/56
Risk Atlases: example
Java,Indonesia
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
30/56
Risk atlas: example Andean countries
http://www.comunidadandina.org/predecan/atlasweb/index.html
Population
Roads
Electrical
energy
system
Oil
infrastructure
Harbours
Airports
Agriculture
Earthquake Volcanoes Landslides Debrisflow Flooding Cold Drought
Tsunami
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
31/56
Risk Reduction
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
32/56
Risk reduction
R = f (H, V, C)R = Risk
H = Hazard
V = Vulnerability
C = Coping capacity
Risk can be reduced by:1. Reducing the hazard
2. Reducing the vulnerability of the
elements at risk3. Reducing the amount of the
elements at risk
4. Increasing the coping capacity
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
33/56
Risk option strategies
1. Avoidance(eliminate) i.e. modify the hazard
2. Reduction(mitigate) i.e. likelyhood of occurence & modify
the susceptibility of hazard damage and disruption.
3. Transference(outsource or insure) i.e. modify the impact
of hazards on individuals and the community.
4. Retention( accept and budget)
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
34/56
Risk reduction measures
Structural :
Refer to any physical construction to reduce or avoidpossible impacts of hazards, which include engineering
measures and construction of hazard-resistant and
protective structures and infrastructure
Non-Structural :
Refer to policies, awareness, knowledge development,public commitment, and methods and operating practices,
including participatory mechanisms and the provision of
information, which can reduce risk and related impacts.
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
35/56
Risk reduction measures
Structural measuresAny physical construction to reduce or avoid possibleimpacts of hazards
engineering measures
construction of hazard-resistant and protective structures and
infrastructure
retrofitting
B ildi d i t ith t d h d
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
36/56
Building design to withstand hazards
in Mountain areas
Foundation Base plate foundation
Basement
Waterproof concrete
Enhancement openings and sealing
Backflow flaps
First & second floor Reinforcement of supporting walls
Roof Reinforcement of roof
Building openings
Decrease amount and area ofwindows in hazard direction
Avalanche shutters
Temporary preventive measures (to
close openings)
Fuchs et al., 2011
Building design to withstand hazards
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
37/56
Building design to withstand hazards
in Mountain areasMeasure Increase in construction costs
Reinforcement of the hillside outer wall 17
Reinforcement of the structural slab 30
Reinforcement of the truss 10
Reduction of eaves (decrease in roof area) -16
Avalanche-proof window and window shutters 67
Above flood-level light shafts +23 23
Total costs of the prototype reinforced building 8
Fuchs et al., 2011
Ri k d ti
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
38/56
Risk reduction measures
Dunes
Dikesandpolders
Dams and barriers
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
39/56
e.g: Landuse planning-Netherlands
To avoide future flood
losses.... a secondarychannel & island areplanned.
Restrictive developmentand some removal ofexisting buildings
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
40/56
Non-Structural measures:1. Awareness/Education
2. Early Warning3. Preparedness and contingency planning
4. Emergency management (e.g. shelter facilities,
evacuation plans etc.)
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
41/56
Contingency Action PlanContingency ActionPlan
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
42/56
"The plan is nothing.
Planning is everything"
General Eisenhower
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
43/56
Definition
A contingency plan is the synthesis of the discussions, analysis and
decisions made during the planning process.
It is also a means of communicating these ideas to people who may
not have been involved in the planning process.
Written contingency plans also document, and in some cases
formalise, commitments made during the planning process.
A process, in anticipation of potential crises, ofdeveloping strategies, arrangements and
procedures to address the humanitarian needs of
those adversely affected by crises.
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
44/56
Contingency plans answer some basic questions
about a potential situation.
What could happen?
What would be needed to alleviate the situation?
How would action be taken?
What materials, supplies and staff would be
needed?
What preparation is necessary?
How much will it cost?
In other words....
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
45/56
Starts with considering the types disaster/MCI that canoccured.
Identifying and assessing common disasters isessential for planning how to response and minimizethe effect.
Identify the top five most probable problems that mightoccur regardless of whether the event has ever actually
occurred. Once these events are identified, the next step involves
developing an action plan specific to each emergencyscenario and establishing procedures to be followed.
Identifying And Assessing
Contingencies
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
46/56
Key Elements Of A Contingency Plan
1. Response strategy:Defines what is to be achieved. Basedon the scenarios, specific intervention objectives and targets, including
beneficiary numbers is developed. The response strategy links the
scenarios and the subsequent plans.
2. Implementation plan: Defines how it is going to beachieved. Thus, the response strategy defines appropriate interventions
or programmes; the implementation plan defines how these programmes
will be implemented (e.g. using community-based targeting and
partnership with local governments) and the steps required (e.g.
emergency needs assessment and logistics).
3. Operational support plan: Sets out the administrative,logistical and other support requirements of a response.
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
47/56
4. Preparedness plan : Actions to improve preparednessfor both specific and general crises are identified. In some
exercises, these actions become the focus of planning efforts
because they can have the biggest potential impact on actual
responses. The results of this process, often called preparedness
planning, are then consolidated into a preparedness plan.
5. Budget :Budget is developed, both for preparedness and forthe actual responses that have been planned.
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
48/56
Contingency Planning Processes
The Linear Model:
The first step requires analysis of the hazards and risks faced by a
population, to develop a better appreciation of the types of situation
that require contingency planning.
Followed by a specific prioritisation of contingencies (possible
situations).
For each of these contingencies, scenarios are developed, and
form the basis for a contingency plan.
Finally, preparedness actions defined in the plan are implemented,
and the plan is periodically updated.
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
49/56
The continuum model:
An ongoing process that doesnot finish with the activation ofthe emergency response.
It helps to anticipate andprepare for differentpossibilities.
The cycle is complete whenlessons from the response areincorporated back into thecontingency planning process.
Triggered again when earlywarning mechanisms indicate
the onset of the next crisis.
Wh T F O Diff El Of
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
50/56
When To Focus On Different Elements OfA Contingency Plan
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
51/56
Sample Contingency Plan
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
52/56
Summary 1
1. Risk Analysis consist of.....
Hazard Identification
Hazard Assessment
Elements at risk/ Exposure
Vulnerability Assessment
Risk Estimation
2. Risk communication is the interactive exchange of
information about risks among risk assessors, managers,
news media, interested groups and the general public.
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
53/56
1. Risk option management strategies:
Avoidance
Reduction
Transference
Retention
2. Risk reduction measures
Structural
Non Structural
Summary 2
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
54/56
Summary 3
1. There are 5 elements of contingency plan. Response strategy
Implementation plan
Operational support plan
Preparedness plan
Budget
2. Contingency plan is important as... Bring significant benefits to humanitarian response.
Helps to identify and prioritise preparedness activities, and the process
itself can be a useful exercise in information preparedness. Maintain and improve the coordination mechanisms.
Can identify indicators - focus early warning efforts.
Translate early warning into early action......
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
55/56
8/10/2019 Disaster Mx 1 Risk Analysis & Contingency Planning.ppt
56/56
Refferences
1.NSC Directive 20 , Minister Dept, Malaysia
2.https://www.ifrc.org
3.https://www.odihpn.org
4.https://ipcc-wg2.gov
5.http://www.wcpt.org/
https://www.ifrc.org/https://www.odihpn.org/https://ipcc-wg2.gov/http://www.wcpt.org/http://www.wcpt.org/https://ipcc-wg2.gov/https://ipcc-wg2.gov/https://ipcc-wg2.gov/https://www.odihpn.org/https://www.ifrc.org/Recommended