DEVELOPING HYDROLOGICAL MODELS FOR THE …...Flujo subsuperficial Flujo lento. IWA-IDB Conference @...

DEVELOPING HYDROLOGICAL MODELS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF THE WATER

RESOURCES OF ANDEAN CATCHMENTS (ECUADOR)

Raúl F. Vázquez Z. & Henrietta HampelUniversity of Cuenca, Av. 12 de Abril S/N, Cuenca, Ecuador.

R. Lelieveld, B. Fischer, N. Lam, S. LyonUniversity of Stockholm, Stockholm, Sweden.

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

LIST OF CONTENTS

1.- INTRODUCTION

2.- HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING OFANDEAN SYSTEMS: AN EXAMPLE

3.- QUESTIONS?

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

WHY STUDYING WAT. RES.?

¿Water a granted good/service?

¿Is it in the right place and time ?

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

WATER IN ECUADOR

Obvious increment of physical and human damages owing toextreme draughts and rain

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

84

92

100

108

116

124

132

140

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion

[TW

h]

GD

P pe

r cap

ita [U

S$ in

hab.

-1]

Year

GDP (OER)

Energy consumption

WATER IN ECUADOR

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

SOCIETY AWARENESS& REQUEST

WATER IN ECUADOR

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

LAB. ECOLOGÍA ACUÁTICA

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300Número de pasos de tiempo

Cau

dal [

m3 s

-1]

Caudal (Zhurucay alto)Escorrentía (flujo rápido)Flujo subsuperficialFlujo lento

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

LIST OF CONTENTS

1.- INTRODUCTION

2.- HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING OFANDEAN SYSTEMS: AN EXAMPLE

3.- QUESTIONS?

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

MODELLING PROTOCOL

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

• Is finding a (best fit) "only optimal parameter set"really valid in practice?

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/FS-121-97/

?MODEL CALIBRATION

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

MODEL UNCERTAINTY

•DATA

•STRUCTURE•PARAMETER

uncertainty

uncertainty

•DATAuncertainty

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

ST. CASE 2: RESULTS

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

• Upgrading distribution function

MODEL UNCERTAINTY

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

ST. CASE 2: RESULTS

IAG004 - distribución posterior (EF2>0.50)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140Jul-08 Ago-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08

Fecha

Lluv

ia [m

m]

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Cau

dal [

m3 s

-1]

Banda predicción (90%) Lluvia Observaciones

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

“MODELLING THE HYDROLOGY OF THE YANUNCAY SUBCATCHMENT, SOUTHERN

ECUADOR”

STUDY CASE

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

YANUNCAY SUBCATCHMENT

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

YAN: MAIN CARACTERISTICS

Average monthly precipitation over 21 years(1997-2018) and average monthlytemperature over 4 years (2014-2018).

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

YAN: CLIMATE

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

YAN: HBV - MODELLING

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

YAN: HBV - MODELLING

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

YAN: HBV CALIBRATION

Automatic calibration (single optimal model)

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

YAN: HBV – PREDICTIONS

0.69 0.66

0.86

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Yanuncay Pucán Soldados

EF2

[--]

Subsystem

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Percentage of time that the discharge was equalled or exceed

10.0

1.0

0.1

Dis

char

ge [m

m d

-1]

YanuncaySoldadosPucán

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

NAM CONCEPTUAL CODE

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

CALIBRATION RESULTS

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

CALIBRATION RESULTS

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

CONCLUSSIONS

(i) Both conceptual structures seem to producesimilar predictions.

(ii) The scarcity of continuous information seems toplay the key role on the quality of the predictions.

(iii) Apparently, the model structures have moretrouble simulating the main reach than modellingthe tributaries (lower data uncertainty?).

(iv) There is a significant number of ongoing researchactivities that are aiming at better characterisingthese very important and sensible Andeansystems by using models. We hope to set upsome model tools that could be more or lessoperational in the future.

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

LIST OF CONTENTS

1.- INTRODUCTION

2.- HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING OFANDEAN SYSTEMS: AN EXAMPLE

3.- QUESTIONS?

IWA-IDB Conference @ Guayaquil Ecuador 01.10.2019

QUESTIONS?

THANKS very much !!

DEVELOPING HYDROLOGICAL MODELS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF THE WATER

RESOURCES OF ANDEAN CATCHMENTS (ECUADOR)

Raúl F. Vázquez Z. & Henrietta HampelUniversity of Cuenca, Av. 12 de Abril S/N, Cuenca, Ecuador.

R. Lelieveld, B. Fischer, N. Lam, S. LyonUniversity of Stockholm, Stockholm, Sweden.