Designing Landscapes for Sustainable Bird Populations Structured Decision Making Workshop Atlantic...

Designing Landscapes for Sustainable Bird

Populations

Structured Decision Making Workshop

Atlantic Coast Joint Venture

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Presentation Outline

Strategic habitat conservation? Project Goals

– Vision for the final products– Process – structured decision making

Decision support tool roadmap– Defining and dividing the problem– Priority birds

Objectives – bird habitat conservation Alternatives – selecting focal (surrogate) species Consequences of the selection

– Landscape characteristics Objectives Mapping priorities

Strategic Habitat Conservation (SHC)

Strategic Habitat Conservation?

Biological planning– Ecological context (Threats and limiting factors)– Selecting surrogate bird species (SDM)– Population objectives – SAMBI Plan– Species-habitat relationships – Jaime, Steve, Matt

Conservation Design– Habitat required to meet the population objectives - ???– Desired landscape configuration (SDM) – Decision support tool

Where will we get the best response from conservation?

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LMV JV decision support tool

One focal habitat – bottomland hardwood forests

Landscape dominated by agriculture

Goal: target populations of surrogate forest bird species

Primary means – Reforestation

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EGCP JV open pine decision tool

One focal habitat Complex landscape Goal: target populations of

surrogate open pine bird species

Primary means:– Longleaf restoration– Improved management of

existing habitat– Habitat acquisition

Similar projects

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Vision for the final product(s)

Multiple habitats Complex, dynamic landscape

– Urban growth– Climate change

Goal: target populations of many surrogate bird species

Product(s)– Map of highest priority areas for each habitat type

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How do we get there?

Structured Decision Making– Process for making smart choices

References– Gregory, R.S., and R.L. Keeney. 2002. Making smarter environmental

decisions. Journal American Water Resources Association. 38(6):1601-1612

– Hammond, J.S., R. L. Keeney, and H. Raiffa. Smart choices: A practical guide to making better decisions, by Harvard Business School Press, Boston, Massachusetts, 1999.

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Introduction to SDM

Important decisions are made in any action or policy Smart decisions are fundamental to success Tools available to professionals:

– Economics– Psychology– Statistics– Biology and ecology– Project management

Ignore basic principles of sound decision making– Not just an “art”

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Five core elements - PrOACT

Problem – Solve the right problem

Objectives – Describe the desired outcomes

Alternatives – Consider any reasonable actions that achieve the outcomes

Consequences – Describe how well alternatives meet objectives

Tradeoffs – Evaluate consequences of each alternative

– Core of structured decision making (Hammond et al., 1999).

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Three additional elements - URL

Uncertainty – Understand the limits of the data and models

Risk Tolerance– Low tolerance ~ grave consequences– High tolerance ~ less serious consequences

Linked Decisions– Do choices made today influence choices to make

tomorrow?

More advanced concepts

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Reasons for SDM process

Group psychology encourages conformity– Results in erroneous choices

– Fail to address individuals’ priorities Don’t explore minority views

Real decisions left to someone else– Managers provide “competent options”

– Dealing with complexity -> administrators

– Neglects importance of individual decision making

– Overlooks diversity of approaches/perspectives