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Delivering solar forecasts to AEMO:benefits, lessons learnt, best practices
Matthew Jeppesenmjeppesen@proaanalytics.com
Victor Depoortervdepoorter@proaanalytics.com
2proa.energy
Solar forecasts help businesses to understand and manage solar
Solar generation is variable
What will happen over:the next minute?5 minutes? 3 hours?7 days?
proa.energy 3
Integration
Better information for other generators & system operators (e.g. AEMO, PWC, Horizon) to make informed decisions.
Operations
Reduce costs for solar farms, improve operations and storage recharge & discharge.
National Electricity Market
Solar (and wind) farms self-forecast for dispatch (5 mins ahead).
Northern Territory
Solar forecasts for PWC GPS (esp. 0—30 mins ahead).
Forecast benefits
4proa.energy
NEM business case
Forecast errors determine solar farm Causer Pays Regulation FCAS costs.
i.e. the solar farm’s share of the cost of maintaining NEM frequency near 50 Hz
40 × increase since 2014:
Now +$500k / year for 100 MW solar farm (using AEMO forecasts)
Professional NEM solar farm self-forecasting services to reduce these costs are commercially investable
2019$60M
(to August)
2014$2M
NEM Mainland Frequency Regulation Costs
5proa.energy
Australian company founded in 2016 offers state-of-the-art solar forecasting, energy analytics, and weather monitoring services.
About us – Proa
Selected projects:
• NEM solar farm forecasts including Tailem Bend Solar Farm – first to submit solar self forecasts to AEMO
• Leads ARENA project at other NEM scale solar farms
• SWIS rooftop PV forecasts AEMO
• Onslow Renewable Energy Project for Horizon Power
6proa.energy
Industry memberships
Clients and partners
7proa.energy
Solar forecasts are needed for …
Customised orientation, inverter clipping, shading
Single systems
Solar farms
Distributed clusters(VPP, network, region)
8proa.energy
Solar forecasting best practices
Live data
Satellite
Numerical forecasts
Skycam
Proaoptimalforecast
Optimal combination of multiple forecasts
30 seconds up to 7 days ahead
Updated every 30 seconds to 5 minutes
SCADA integration (HARD Software & Modbus / DNP3)
9proa.energy
Night IR vision
Visible light only – black sky With Night IR vision
Crucial to forecast 3 to 5 hours before sunrise
10proa.energy
Skycam forecasts for solar farms Speciality:0–20 mins
Ahead
12proa.energy
Lessons learnt – first to submit solar self forecasts to AEMO
Partnership between asset owners, asset managers, and solar forecasting provider
Careful planning of equipment installation and SCADA data integration
Deep understanding of NEM processes and procedures
13proa.energy
Is a PV system meeting its performance guarantee?
• Professional-grade weather stations.
• State-of-the-art algorithms to monitor performance
• Identify and fix problems
• Give asset owners peace of mind
With many companies installing large PV systems (100 kW—many MW), critical to ensure financial return on investment
Solar PV performance monitoring
14proa.energy
• Solar forecasts help businesses understand and manage solar generation – no matter how solar affects their business
• Grid integration, operations, battery dispatch, VPP control
• National Electricity Market: reduce Causer Pays FCAS costs with professional solar forecasting services
• Northern Territory: solar forecasts combined with battery storage are crucial for PWC GPS
Summary
For more information:
inquiries@proaanalytics.com
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Thank youQuestions?
Victor DepoorterMatthew Jeppesen
vdepoorter@proaanalytics.commjeppesen@proaanalytics.com
16proa.energy
Multiple integration options:
• API https (GET & POST)
• SFTP
• Modbus TCP (Solar farm SCADA)
Multiple data formats:
• JSON
• CSV
• netcdf / HDF5
Custom options available
Data integration
17proa.energy
Forecast modulesModule Horizon Resolution Update
frequency
Components
Intra-hour 0–30
mins
30 secs 30 secs Skycam CMV
Live data
Satellite CMV
Intra-day 0–24
hours
5 mins 5 mins Satellite CMV
NWP (single)
Intra-week 0–7 days 5 mins 5 mins NWP (multiple)
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