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Deliberative Polls &
Citizens’ AssembliesA Short Presentation
Antwerp, October 13, 2008
Min Reuchamps
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
Deliberative Polls & Citizens’ Assemblies
Conventional Polling vs. Deliberative Polling
Deliberative PollingCitizens’ AssembliesCitizens’ Assemblies on the Future of
Federalism in Belgium and CanadaFrench-speaking Belgians and
Federalism
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
Conventional Polling vs. Deliberative Polling
Since George H. Gallup, public opinions polls aim at giving:
an accurate picture & a voice to democracyAlthough they rely on scientific random
samples, they measure uninformed opinions
Two major difficulties:“rational ignorance” & “non-attitudes”
(Downs 1957 & Converse 1964)
59,2 % (N = 1437)
42,5 % (N = 1437)
Similar results for the adults
(see, e.g., Delli C
arpini and Keeter 1996 or Price 1999)
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
Deliberative PollingJames S. Fishkin and Robert C. Luskin
(1988):Deliberative Polling®
Representation: scientific random sampleDeliberation: informed opinions It attempts “to represent everyone in a
given population, through a statistical microcosm empowered to think about the issues in question under favorable conditions” (Fishkin 2003, 128)
1. A random sample of the population takes a normal survey on a particular issue
2. A random sample of the respondents (400 people) gathers for a deliberative event
3. During the event, the citizens interact in focus groups and with experts
4. Finally, the participants re-take the same survey as in step 1
Key results:
Representative sample of the population to gather for an extensive deliberative event
Opinions change significantly
Respondents become much more informed
Information gains explain a lot of the opinion change
Deliberative polling: one of the most ambitious method of public consultation
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
Citizens’ Assemblies
In the recent years, Citizens’ Assemblies on Electoral Reform
In BC, The Netherlands, and OntarioLearning process and “decision-making”
processCitizens’ Assemblies vs. Deliberative Polls
Towards Small Citizens’ Assemblies on the Future of Federalism in Belgium
and Canada
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
Citizens’ Assemblies on the Future of Federalism in Belgium and Canada
Deliberative Polls (DP)/Citizens’ Assemblies (CA) catch the big picture and provide learning-process: what people think before and after, and how their opinions vary
But not: why the citizens change their opinions and what it means
Moreover, DP & CA are extremely expensive & not comparative
Thus, smaller, comparative and more qualitative experiment
Trade-off:
not representative but still
deliberative
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
Mini Citizens’ Assemblies on the Future of Federalism in Belgium and
CanadaResearch question: the relationship between…… the citizens’ perception of federalism and…... their preferences vis-à-vis the evolution of
the federal state?Context: deep-divided polities and societiesPerception: knowledge, legitimacy, identity,
and perception of the other communityPreferences: future reforms of the federal
state
Four Citizens’ Assemblies:
In Flemish- and French-speaking Belgium, English- and French-speaking Canada
About thirty citizens for a half-day deliberative event (invitation through lists
of diffusion, media, peer-to-peer : i.e. sample of convenience)
Pre-questionnaire of 60 questions (perception and preferences)
5 focus groups, 2 experts and 2 politicans
Post-questionnaire
Creation of profiles/types of citizens
for comparison within and between
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
Two Types of Data : Quantitative Data
Pre- and post-questionnaireQuestionnaire: perception &
preferencesNot representative but
standardization of the responses and guideline for discussions
What people think before and after, how their opinions vary, and define groups of citizens
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
Two Types of Data : Qualitative Data
Focus groups and interaction participants-experts
Two moments in focus groups (for a total of 120’) with trained moderators
Two experts and two politiciansPerception & Preferences
Qualitative content analysis (Mayring 2000)
Nature of the beliefs and arguments
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
French-speaking Belgians and Federalism
Liège, September 2007, in the middle of the crisis
64 citizens for a one-day discussionSome insights :Federalism has two negative meanings…Walloon or Francophones?And the Future of Federalism?In comparative perspective…
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
Graphique 2Quelle politique souhaitez-vous pour la Belgique ? (T1 et T2)
16 20
238
4252
6173
282 0 2
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
T1 T2
sans réponse
je ne sais pas
scission de laBelgique
moins decompétences
statu quo
rétablissement del'État belge unitaire
davantage decompétences
T1 "Préférences fédérales" * T2 "Préférences fédérales" Crosstabulation
5 0 5 0 0 10
8,1% ,0% 8,1% ,0% ,0% 16,1%
1 4 7 3 0 15
1,6% 6,5% 11,3% 4,8% ,0% 24,2%
6 0 19 2 0 27
9,7% ,0% 30,6% 3,2% ,0% 43,5%
1 0 0 2 0 3
1,6% ,0% ,0% 3,2% ,0% 4,8%
0 0 0 1 1 2
,0% ,0% ,0% 1,6% 1,6% 3,2%
0 1 1 3 0 5
,0% 1,6% 1,6% 4,8% ,0% 8,1%
13 5 32 11 1 62
21,0% 8,1% 51,6% 17,7% 1,6% 100,0%
Count
% of Total
Count
% of Total
Count
% of Total
Count
% of Total
Count
% of Total
Count
% of Total
Count
% of Total
Davantage decompétences pour lesRégions et lesCommunautés
Le rétablissement del'État belge unitaire
Le statu quo de l'Étatfédéral actuel
Moins de compétencespour les Régions et lesCommunautésLa scission de laBelgique
Je ne sais pas
T1"Préférencesfédérales"
Total
Davantage decompétences
pour lesRégions et
lesCommunauté
s
Lerétablissement de l'État
belge unitaire
Le statu quode l'État
fédéral actuel
Moins decompétences pour lesRégions et
lesCommunau
tés
La scissionde la
Belgique
T2 "Préférences fédérales"
Total
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
Deliberative Polls & Citizens’ Assemblies : Preliminary
ConclusionDeliberative Polling (Fishkin and Luskin): Representation & Deliberation
But: nature of the changes – cost – comparison
Thus, mixing quali- and quanti- deliberative polling in a quasi-experiment
In four different fieldsDone by a graduate student
Collecting data and involving citizens in social science research
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
Deliberative Polls & Citizens’ Assemblies
Thank you for your attention!Comments and questions welcome!And last but not least, you are
welcome to attend/participate in the next Citizens’ Assembly in Antwerp, on November, 2008!
For questions or more information:Min.Reuchamps@ulg.ac.be
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