December 2007 Predictive Profiling and Terrorist Threat Mitigation Anaheim, CA

December 2007December 2007Predictive Profiling and Predictive Profiling and

Terrorist Threat MitigationTerrorist Threat Mitigation

Anaheim, CA Anaheim, CA

What is “Profiling”?What is “Profiling”?

CRIME TERRORISM

The nature of the terrorist threatThe nature of the terrorist threat

Terrorist ActsTerrorist Actsvs.vs. Criminal ActsCriminal Acts

The Nature of the Terrorist ThreatThe Nature of the Terrorist Threat

1. Modern Terrorism

2. State Sponsored Terrorism

3. Detailed Planning

4. Sophisticated but Not Complex Execution

5. Building a Legitimate Profile

6. Highly Motivated

1. Indiscriminate 2. Soft Targets 3. Politically Motivated4. Driven by Media Exposure 5. Usage of WMD

Modern TerrorismModern Terrorism

Political AspectPolitical Aspect

Democracy Democracy

Terrorism

Totalitarian Totalitarian

AssassinationAssassination

Modern TerrorismModern Terrorism

1. Unlimited Funds

2. Ability to Assume Legitimate Identities

3. Ability to Train in a Safe Environment

4. Working Under Diplomatic Cover

5. Accessibility to Means of Aggression

State Sponsored TerrorismState Sponsored Terrorism

$250,000www.belizeretire.com

“Karine A” $7m“Karine A” $7m

1. One to Five Years of Careful Planning

2. Learning Security Loopholes

3. Learning the Operational Environment of the Target

4. Rehearsing the Plan (Dry Runs)

Detailed PlanningDetailed Planning

Sophisticated but Not Complex ExecutionSophisticated but Not Complex Execution

1. Swift and Aggressive Execution 2. Element of Surprise3. Utilizing Available Resources4. Multiple Targets Simultaneously

5. Using Suicide Bombers (“Smart Bomb”)6. Multiple Bombs in One Target

Building a Legitimate ProfileBuilding a Legitimate Profile

1. Assuming New Identities

2. Blending In as Law-Abiding Citizens

3. Becoming “Normal” Social Participants

4. Utilizing “Mules”

April 1994 – Hussein MikdadApril 1994 – Hussein Mikdad

1. Hezbollah Operation

2. Stolen UK Passport (John Newman)

3. Infiltration through Israeli Immigration

4. Prolonged Surveillance Activity

5. Failure due to “working accident” with the explosive charges

The Hezbollah Infiltration MO The Hezbollah Infiltration MO

An International NetworkAn International Network

The Doctors’ Plot – UK July 2007The Doctors’ Plot – UK July 2007

Bilal AbdullahMohammed Asha

Palestinian, Born in SA and raised in Jordan. On a year-long license to practice medicine in the UK

Born in the UKTrained in Iraq as a doctor and was practicing medicine in the UK

Kafeel Ahmed

Indian Muslim born in India and raised in Saudi Arabia. Studying in UK for a PHD in engineering

Video

The Ann Marie Murphy CaseThe Ann Marie Murphy Case

Name:Name: Ann Marie Murphy

Gender:Gender: Female

Age:Age: 26

Nationality:Nationality: Irish

Visual Suspicion Indicator:Visual Suspicion Indicator: A Pregnant Woman Traveling Alone

Possible AMO:Possible AMO: Use of an innocent person to deliver a bomb onto the aircraft (“Mule”)

Q: Good morning Ma’am, my name is Erez and I’m the security officer in charge of the security of your flight. With your permission I’d like to ask you a couple of questions

A: Sure, go ahead

Q: May I ask what is the purpose of your visit to Israel?

A: I’m going to see the holy places

Q: Have you ever been to Israel before?

A: No. this is my first time

Q: Do you know anyone in Israel or in the West Bank?

A: I told you – This is my first visit…

Q: But do you know anyone there?

A: No.

Q: How long do you plan to stay in Israel?

A: Two weeks.

Q: Where are you going to stay?

A: In Hilton Hotels.

Q: Where Exactly?

A: Hilton Tel Aviv and Hilton Bethlehem.

Q: Do you have reservations for these hotels?

A: I don’t need reservations – I work for the Hilton Hotel Chain.

Q: That is great. May I ask in what capacity?

A: I am a chamber maid.

Q: Do you happen to have your employee I.D with you?

A: Yes I do (Presents the I.D.)

Q: Did you call ahead of time to let anyone know that you are coming?

A: No.

Q: What will you do if the hotels are fully booked when you arrive?

A: I will have to stay in a different hotel…Why are you asking all these questions?

A: I have 100 pounds in cash and a credit card.

Q: As I explained, this is a standard procedure. I am asking these questions to insure the safety and security of the flight. Do you have funds in case you need to stay in an alternative hotel?

Q: May I see the credit card?

A: (Presents a retail store credit card valid only in certain retail chains in GB)

Q: Ma’am, this is not a valid credit card for use in Israel.

A: Well…I’ll probably not need it anyways…

Q: Ma’am, did anyone ask you to take anything with you on board the flight?

A: No.

Q: I am asking this because in the past there have been cases in which innocent passengers where used to carry explosives onto the aircraft without their knowledge. Are you sure everything here belongs to you?

A: Yes

Name:Name: Ann Marie Murphy

Gender:Gender: Female

Age:Age: 26

Nationality:Nationality: Irish

Suspicion Indicator from questioningSuspicion Indicator from questioning A Pregnant Woman Traveling Alone

      Insufficient funds for the duration and nature of the trip

      Incoherent story

       There is no Hilton hotel in Bethlehem

MitigationMitigation – Thorough inspection of Ann Marie’s suitcase FindingsFindings 2 kg of Semtex explosives with a barometric mechanism hidden inside of a calculator

Explosives came to London via Syrian diplomatic mail

OperatorOperator – Nezar Hindawi

Success Success

375 lives were saved

War between Israel and Syria was prevented

May 2002 – Pi Glilot Gas DepotMay 2002 – Pi Glilot Gas Depot

1. Use of a mule

2. Prolonged surveillance

3. Estimated death toll – 20,000

4. Bomb activation through remote control

5. Explosion occurred

Terrorists’ MotivationTerrorists’ Motivation

Motive + Opportunity = Motive + Opportunity = TerroristTerroristPotentialPotential

Marking1. Marking

2. Intelligence Gathering

3. Surveillance

4. Planning

5. Tooling Up

6. Rehearsing / Training

7. Execution

8. Getaway

to Getaway

ExecutionExecution

Predictive Profiling is a method of threat assessment designed to predict and categorize the potential for inappropriate, harmful, criminal and/or terrorist behavior and consequently deploy the procedures required in order to eliminate these threats.

Predictive Profiling DefinitionPredictive Profiling Definition

Kozo Okamoto - 1972

What was the nationality of the first What was the nationality of the first terrorist to attack Ben Gurion AP?terrorist to attack Ben Gurion AP?

Patrick Argüello - 1970

1.1. American MotherAmerican Mother

2.2. Nicaraguan FatherNicaraguan Father

3.3. Raised in L.A. and Raised in L.A. and South AmericaSouth America

4.4. Sandinista TerroristSandinista Terrorist

The Course of Action Used by Terrorists to The Course of Action Used by Terrorists to Achieve Their ObjectiveAchieve Their Objective

Establishing a commercial company to be involved in a terrorist activity

Recruiting an employee from within the protected environment

Using emergency vehicle to transport means of aggression

Using a “mule” to deliver a bomb into a protected environment (unintentionally/semi-unintentionally)

Aggressor’s Method of Operation (AMO)Aggressor’s Method of Operation (AMO)

An AMO represents a proven actionable An AMO represents a proven actionable terrorist method. A Scenario is an outline terrorist method. A Scenario is an outline or model of an expected or supposed or model of an expected or supposed sequence of events.sequence of events.

AMO vs. ScenarioAMO vs. Scenario

You prove a scenario using AMOs

An indication based on known (or predicted) An indication based on known (or predicted) terrorist or criminal methods of operations or terrorist or criminal methods of operations or deviation from a typical profile that may lead deviation from a typical profile that may lead one to believe that an observed situation one to believe that an observed situation (persons and/or objects) may have the potential (persons and/or objects) may have the potential for harming the protected environment and its for harming the protected environment and its inhabitants.inhabitants.

An indication based on known (or predicted) An indication based on known (or predicted) terrorist or criminal methods of operations or terrorist or criminal methods of operations or deviation from a typical profile deviation from a typical profile that may lead that may lead one to believe that an observed situation one to believe that an observed situation (persons and/or objects) may have the potential (persons and/or objects) may have the potential for harming the protected environment and its for harming the protected environment and its inhabitants.inhabitants.

Suspicion Indicator - DefinitionSuspicion Indicator - Definition

Threat is suspicion that was not refutedThreat is suspicion that was not refuted

Threat vs. SuspicionThreat vs. Suspicion

DDDDDD

etectetect

eterminetermin

eployeploy

suspicionsuspicion

method of operationmethod of operation

against the MOagainst the MO

The Security ProcessThe Security Process

Where did we fail in 9/11?Where did we fail in 9/11?

The OODA LoopThe OODA Loop

The OODA LoopThe OODA Loop"In order to win, we should operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than our adversaries--or, better yet, get inside [the] adversary's Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action time cycle or loop. ... Such activity will make us appear ambiguous (unpredictable) thereby generate confusion and disorder among our adversaries.“ John Boyd, "Patterns of Conflict"

The OODA LoopThe OODA Loop

OOOOStuck in Stuck in OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Threat is constant while Risk is a variableThreat is constant while Risk is a variable

Threat vs. RiskThreat vs. Risk

SIs: late, strange perfume, hair messed-up

AMO?

Cheating

Marriage

Do you assume THREAT or RISK when it comes to

your relationship???

How do you protect your home?

Who?Who?

Why?Why?

When ?When ?

how?how?

Where?Where?

Suicide Bomber Detected – Natania IsraelSuicide Bomber Detected – Natania Israel

Asif Hanif and Omar Sharif Asif Hanif and Omar Sharif traveled from Britain to traveled from Britain to Israel under the auspices of Israel under the auspices of the International Solidarity the International Solidarity Movement’s (ISM) Movement’s (ISM) Alternative Tourism Group, Alternative Tourism Group, the precursor to the ISM. the precursor to the ISM. Both terrorists told Israeli Both terrorists told Israeli border police they were border police they were entering for purposes of entering for purposes of Alternative Tourism. They Alternative Tourism. They met with the ISM in Gaza at met with the ISM in Gaza at a memorial for Rachel a memorial for Rachel Corrie. Corrie.

Infiltration Using European PassportsInfiltration Using European Passports

Mike’s Place – April 30 2003Mike’s Place – April 30 2003

Avi Tabib – Bouncer at Mike’s PlaceAvi Tabib – Bouncer at Mike’s Place

THANK YOU! THANK YOU!

Amotz BrandesManaging PartnerChameleon Associates LLC(818) 734 8448abrandes@chameleonassociates.com