David McNew/Getty Images

David McNew/Getty ImagesThe downtown skyline is enveloped in smog shortly before sunset in Los Angeles, California.

(NBC Nightly News)

epa.gov

“Tier 3” rules: •standards to address air pollution from passenger cars and trucks

•tailpipe standard: more stringent vehicle emissions standards•gasoline standard: reduce the sulfur content of gasoline by 2/3

•help state/local agencies to attain National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).

epa.gov

epa.gov

Economics & politicsEPA had similar proposal ready in December 2011.

White House decided to wait until after the 2012 elections to submit it for review.(NYTimes, 3/3/14)

Industry funded BCA

Tier 3 is projected to lead to reductions in several air pollutants:

Beneficial impacts on health

• sulfur blocks pollution-control equipment in vehicles increases tailpipe emissions

• linked to lung disease, asthma, emphysema, chronic bronchitis, aggravated heart disease and premature births and deaths (NYT, 3/3/14)

• by 2030, annually prevent – 660-1,500 PM-related premature deaths, – 110-500 ozone-related premature

deaths, – 81,000 work days lost, – approximately 1.1 million minor

restricted-activity days.

Maryland Dept. of the Env.

One e.g. of new performance standard for light duty (LD) vehicles (v) and trucks (t)

NMOG: Non-Methane Organic Gases, precursors to ozoneNote: ratcheting.

Evaporative Emission Standards

• Gasoline in fuel lines and tank can slowly evaporate over time.

• New standard: covered vehicles will be required to have essentially zero fuel vapor emissions in use (evaporative emissions standards, test procedures, and fuel/evaporative system leak standard)

 • These new standards are harmonized with California’s

zero evaporative emissions standards

(Note: California as policy lab)

Costs: vehicle tech & fuel

Valuation of benefits: reductions in premature mortality & VSL

• VSL = $6.3M, $8.3M, $10.2M ….what’s going on?• Should we be concerned that EPA didn’t allow VSL

to continue to grow 2024-2030?

Benefits: health

• Sensitivity to discounting assumptions. (What’s being discounted?)• Should we be concerned that EPA didn’t quantify all of the benefits?

EPA infographic

Annual net benefits by 2030EPA

infographic

Optional additional slides

Increasing standards, increasing MC• Sulfur in American gasoline:

– Decade ago: 300 ppm (parts per million) – Subsequent rule changes required refiners to cut the sulfur content by

90 percent currently 30 ppm.– New rule (2014) reduce by 2/3 to 10 ppm.

Upi.com

NY Times, 3/3/ 2014

• Charles Drevna, president of the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (lobbyist)– removing the first 90 percent of sulfur

molecules from gasoline relatively easy. – last 10 percent is harder: “They’re tough

little buggers that don’t want to come out. It’s like getting the last little bit of red wine stain out of a white blouse.”