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CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
John Randall
Registrar General for Scotland
INSTITUTE OF CONTEMPORARY SCOTLAND LECTURE
SCOTLAND’S POPULATION
30 October 2002
OUTLINE OF TALK
1 OVERALL POPULATION CHANGE
2 MIGRATION
3 BIRTHS
4 DEATHS
5 CHANGES IN AGE STRUCTURE
6 MARRIAGES AND DIVORCES
7 KEY ISSUES
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
projected
SCOTLAND: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION, 1861-2021
4,850,000
4,900,000
4,950,000
5,000,000
5,050,000
5,100,000
5,150,000
5,200,000
Published Estimates Published 2000-based ProjectionsProvisionally Revised Estimates Provisional 2001-based Projections
SCOTLAND: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION 1981-2021
-2.2
4.45.0
3.2
9.5
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Scotland Wales UK England N Ireland
% change
POPULATION CHANGE 1981-2001
-5
0
5
10
15
20
% a
ge c
hang
e fr
om 2
000
PROJECTED POPULATION CHANGE IN EU COUNTRIES 2000-2020
POPULATION CHANGE BY COUNCIL AREA 1981-2001
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
5019
51-5
2
1956
-57
1961
-62
1966
-67
1971
-72
1976
-77
1981
-82
1986
-87
1991
-92
1996
-97
Persons ('000s)
Natural Change
Net Migration
SCOTLAND: NATURAL CHANGE AND NET MIGRATION 1951-2001
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
1951
-52
1957
-58
1963
-64
1969
-70
1975
-76
1981
-82
1987
-88
1993
-94
1999
-00
Migration ('000s)
SCOTLAND: NET MIGRATION 1951-2001
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1951
-52
1957
-58
1963
-64
1969
-70
1975
-76
1981
-82
1987
-88
1993
-94
1999
-00
Migration ('000s)
Rest of UK
Overseas
SCOTLAND: NET MIGRATION WITH REST OF UK/OVERSEAS
1951-2001
SCOTLAND: NET MIGRATION RATES PER 1,000 POPULATION FOR HEALTH BOARD AREAS 1991-2001
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84
Moves to Scotland from UKMoves from Scotland to UKNet Moves
MALES
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84
Moves to Scotland from UKMoves from Scotland to UK
Net Moves
FEMALES
SCOTLAND: MIGRATION TO AND FROM THE REST OF THE UK BY AGE IN 2000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Births Deaths
Projected
SCOTLAND: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED BIRTHS AND DEATHS 1951-2021
SCOTLAND: BIRTHS 1901-2001
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
0
50
100
150
200
250
15 20 25 30 35 40
Age
Births per 1,000
women
1951
1964
1977
1991
2001
SCOTLAND: BIRTHS PER 1,000 WOMEN BY AGE
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
TFR
Scotland
England & Wales
Northern Ireland
TOTAL FERTILITY RATES 1951-2001
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
TFR
TOTAL FERTILITY RATES FOR EU COUNTRIES IN 2000
SCOTLAND: DEATHS 1901-2001
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Nu
mb
er o
f D
eath
s p
er 1
,000
to
tal
bir
ths
Infant
Perinatal
Still birth
Change in definition of Stillbirths
(Oct 92)
SCOTLAND: STILLBIRTH, PERINATAL AND INFANT DEATH RATES 1951 - 2001
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1950-1952 1960-1962 1970-1972 1980-1982 1990-1992 2001 2011 2021 2031 2040
Age
Males Females
Projected
SCOTLAND: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED EXPECTATION OF LIFE AT BIRTH 1950-2040
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
Portugal
Scotla
nd
Finlan
d
Irela
nd
Denmar
k
Belgiu
m
N Irel
and
Luxem
bourgEU-1
5
France
United
Kingdom
Austria
Spain
Nether
lands
England &
Wal
es
Greece
Italy
Sweden
Males Females
ESTIMATED EXPECTATION OF LIFE AT BIRTH IN EU COUNTRIES 1999
Source: ONS, Eurostat
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Cancer Ischaemic HeartDiseases
CerebrovascularDiseases
RespiratoryDiseases
Digestive Diseases Other
Number of
Deaths
1991 2001
SCOTLAND: DEATHS BY SELECTED CAUSES 1991 - 2001
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Cancer Ischaemic heartdisease
Cerebrovasculardisease
Per
100
,000
pop
'n
Scotland
England
Wales
Northern Ireland
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Cancer Ischaemic heartdisease
Cerebrovasculardisease
Per
100
,000
pop
'n
AGE-ADJUSTED MORTALITY RATES BY SELECTED CAUSE IN 2000
MALES FEMALES
STANDARDISED MORTALITY RATES BY COUNCIL AREA IN 2001
SCOTLAND: CHANGES IN AGE STRUCTURE 1981-2001
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
0-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+
Age group
Pe
rso
ns
('0
00
s)
1981 2001
-18%
-23%+20%
+11%
+29%
-18%
-23%+20%
+11%
-2%
+29%
SCOTLAND: PROJECTED CHANGES IN AGE STRUCTURE 2000-2021
-20%
-11%
-22%
13%
29%27%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+
Age group
50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Age
Persons ('000s)
90+
50 40 30 20 10
SCOTLAND: POPULATION BY AGE AND SEX IN 2001
MALES FEMALES
SCOTLAND: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED AGE STRUCTURE 1901-2031
-300,000 -200,000 -100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000
0 - 4
10 - 14
20 - 24
30 - 34
40 - 44
50 - 54
60 - 64
70 - 74
80 - 84
Ag
e
Population-300,000 -200,000 -100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000
0 - 4
10 - 14
20 - 24
30 - 34
40 - 44
50 - 54
60 - 64
70 - 74
80 - 84
Ag
e
Population
-300,000 -200,000 -100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000
0 - 4
10 - 14
20 - 24
30 - 34
40 - 44
50 - 54
60 - 64
70 - 74
80 - 84
Ag
e
Population-300,000 -200,000 -100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000
0 - 4
10 - 14
20 - 24
30 - 34
40 - 44
50 - 54
60 - 64
70 - 74
80 - 84
Ag
e
Population
MALES FEMALES MALES FEMALES
MALES FEMALES MALES FEMALES
Scotland 1911 Scotland 1951
Scotland 2001 Scotland 2031
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
% o
f w
ork
ing
ag
e p
op
ula
tio
n
projected
SCOTLAND: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED DEPENDENCY RATIOS 1951-2021
Total Dependency Ratio
Under 16
60 +
SCOTLAND: MARRIAGES 1951-2001
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
SCOTLAND: MARRIAGES BY MARITAL STATUS OF PERSONS MARRYING 1951-2001
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
M F M F M F M F M F M F
Divorced
Widowed
Single
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
SCOTLAND: MARRIAGES BY TYPE OF CEREMONY 1951-2001
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Nu
mb
er o
f m
arri
ages
('0
00s)
Church of Scotland Roman Catholic Other Religious Civil
SCOTLAND: DIVORCES 1952-2001
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
KEY ISSUES
1 DECLINING POPULATION
2 GEOGRAPHICAL CHANGE
3 AGEING POPULATION
4 LOW FERTILITY
5 RELATIVELY HIGH MORTALITY
6 REDUCING MIGRATION LOSS
CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
John Randall
Registrar General for Scotland
INSTITUTE OF CONTEMPORARY SCOTLAND LECTURE
SCOTLAND’S POPULATION
30 October 2002
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