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CURRENT STATUS OF MINI -GRID OPERATIONS IN MYANMAR AND CAMBODIA

Preliminary Results of the Mini-grid Operator Survey

Bryan Koo

This presentation contains preliminary results for selected metrics from the raw data. Global

Facility on Mini-grid prioritized calculation and review of these metrics in order to provide a

preview of the full analysis. • A full report and data will be submitted next year.

MINI-GRID OPERATOR SURVEY IN FIVE COUNTRIES

Countries: Myanmar, Cambodia, Nepal, India, and Niger

Survey Preparation Sampling Frame

Survey Questionnaire

CAPI program

Survey Implementation Cambodia: June-October, 2017 (Completed)

Myanmar: August-November, 2017 (Completed)

Nepal: Currently in the stage of data collection

India: Prep. Phase

Niger: Prep. Phase

MYANMAR AND CAMBODIA

Land area (sq. km)

PopulationPopulation Density

(ppl/sq.km)Share of Households living

in Urban areas (%)

Cambodia 176,520 15,762,370 89.3 21%Myanmar 653,540 52,885,223 80.9 35%

ELECTRIFICATION RATE IN CAMBODIA HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY, MAINLY DRIVEN BY PRIVATE SECTOR

Government of Cambodia has rapidly expanded the electric grid: 71.5% of Cambodian households are connected to the grid electricity based on Multi-tier energy access Tracking Framework (MTF) survey in 2017.

Note: The graph was formulated using CSES datasets available between 1997-2014 and MTF data in 2017.

16.4% 16.7%20.0%

24.0%26.8%

32.5%

50.9%

58.2%

71.5%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

CONSOLIDATED LICENSEES IN CAMBODIA HAVE BECOME DISTRIBUTION LICENSEES WHEN AN ISOLATED SYSTEM

IS CONNECTED TO THE MAIN GRID

98114

147165

185 185

221

100

101

5035 32

199 13 16 21 25 27

40

8298

139

167

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Consolidated licensee Distribution licensees

* Number of distribution licensees in 2016 and 2017 is missing for now.

• As the national grid arrives the villages, the consolidated licensees have

converted into the distribution licensees.

• Consolidated License: Generation + Distribution

• Distribution License: Only Distribution

DIESEL IS MOST PREVALENT SOURCE FOR MINI-GRID OPERATIONS

Diesel, 83%

Solar, 1%

Hydropower, 13%

Biomass, 3%

Myanmar (N=811)

Diesel, 90%

Biomass, 10%

Cambodia (N=10)

AVERAGE GENERATION CAPACITY IN CAMBODIA IS LARGER THAN MYANMAR

upto 100 kw, 10%

100-200 kw, 30%

200-300 kw, 40%

300-400 kw, 20%

Cambodia (N=9)

upto 10 kW, 21%

10-50 kW, 65%

50-100 kW, 4%

over 100 kW, 9%

Myanmar (N=804)

CAMBODIAN OPERATORS SERVE FOR MORE AND DIVERSE CUSTOMERS

13%

51%

30%25%

Business School Health Facility Governmentoffice

Cambodia (N=94)Myanmar (N=805)92% 93% 90% 91%

15%

Small scalebusiness

School Health facility Governmentoffice

GarmentFactory

Myanmar Cambodia

Residential Customer 234 3843

Business 43 152

School 2 4

Health facility 2 2

Government office 8 4

Type of Customers served

Number of Customers served

1

2

77% OF MINI-GRID OPERATORS IN MYANMAR DO NOT HAVE A PLAN TO INCREASE CUSTOMERS

No, 77%

No, 21%No, 10%

Yes, 23%

Yes, 79%Yes, 90%

Myanmar CambodiaDistribution

CambodiaConsolidation

MORE OPERATORS FROM CAMBODIA REPORTED THAT IT IS PROFITABLE

Yes, 65%

No, 35%

Myanmar

(N=805)

No, 10%

Yes, 90%

No, 4%

Yes, 95%

don't know,

1%

Cambodia- Consolidated Licensee

(N=10)

Cambodia- Distribution Licensee

(N=87)

* “Do you make a profit from operating the mini-grid?”

• 65% of mini-grid operators in Myanmar answered that their operation is profitable

while more than 90% of operations in Cambodia are profitable.

• Further investigation on their profitability will be carried out.

TARIFF FOR ELECTRICITY SERVICE (PER KWH)

Min, 0.12

Min, 0.42

Min, 0.03

Mean, 0.15

Mean, 0.55Mean, 0.44

Max, 1.19

Max, 0.75

Max, 0.95

Distribution Licensee-Residential Customer (per

kWh) in USD

Consolidated Licensee-Residential Customer (Per

kWh) in USD

Residential Customer (PerkWh) in USD

Cambodia Myanmar

Min

Mean

Max

N=70 N=8 N=112

HOW IS THE TARIFF DETERMINED?Cambodia- Electricity Authority of Cambodia set electricity price incorporating generation cost and certain percentage of profit.

Myanmar Mainly determined by either Community or Private sector

* Other, specify: It is written in Burmese and currently in the process of translating.

DRD, 1%

Community, 50%

Private Company, 43%

Other, 6%

PRIVATE COMPANY’S ELECTRICITY TARIFF IS HIGHER THAN COMMUNITY BASED TARIFF

Min, 0.03Min, 0.07 Min, 0.07

Mean, 0.23

Mean, 0.38 Mean, 0.41Max, 0.37

Max, 0.59

Max, 0.95

DRD Community Priavte Company

Min Mean MaxN=6 N=25 N=77

Per kWh

Min, 0.15 Min, 0.15

Mean, 1.47

Mean, 2.93

Max, 1.68

Max, 3.56

Community Priavte Company

Min Mean Max

Flat Fee per Month

N=431 N=199

• However, the difference in electricity tariff does not only attribute to the

decision making process. More private company runs diesel generator for

electricity supply which would be a reason of higher electricity tariff.

ELECTRICITY TARIFF OF HYDRO-BASED OPERATION IS LOWER THAN DIESEL-BASED ONE

min, 0.03 min, 0.07

mean, 0.45

mean, 0.16

max, 0.95

max, 0.37

Diesel Hydropower

USD Per kWh By Source of Generation

N=91 N=18

MAJOR ISSUES WITH REVENUE

No, 51%

Yes, 49%

Myanmar: System breakdown

• Due to the system breakdown,

the operators in Myanmar

cannot provide sufficient

electricity service to customers.

36%

23% 24%

Low consumption Decrease in numberof customers

No problem

• Cambodian operators’ main concern is low

consumption and decrease in number of customers

(e.g. Migration)

• A quarter of operators reported that they don’t

have any problem with revenue.

Cambodia: Low Consumption

Does System breakdown make a

negative impact on your revenue?

ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION OF RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IS ONLY 25-30% OF URBAN HOUSEHOLDS.

Electricity Consumption in kWh/month Urban/Rural

127.8

37.9

55.2

Electricity consumption(kWh/month)

Urban Rural Nationwide

* Source: 2017 Multi-tier energy access Tracking Framework Survey in Cambodia

QUALITY OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY

N=81 N=805

22.524.0

5.24 4 3.2

CambodiaDistribution

CambodiaConsolidated

Myanmar

Hours of Electricity Supply (Daytime)Hours of Electricity Supply(Evening)

N=10

4.1 1.3 0.2

15.6

107.0

20.1

CambodiaDistribution

CambodiaConsolidated

Myanmar

Frequency / day

Duration (Min) / day

N=81 N=805N=10

Hours of Electricity Supply during Daytime (24 hrs)

and Evening (4 hrs)

Frequency and Duration of Outages

IT TAKES 115 HOURS TO FIX TECHNICAL PROBLEM IN MYANMAR WHILE 35 HOURS IN CAMBODIA ON AVERAGE

115.17

34.89

Myanmar Cambodia

How long did it take to fix the problem? (Hrs)

1%

84%

7% 9%

31%

19%

3%

47%

Ask my equipmentmanufacturers

Hire a localtechnician to fix it

Call a technicianoutside of the

community

Notapplicable/Solved

by Operator

Myanmar

Cambodia

How to cope with the technical problems

WHEN THE NATIONAL GRID ARRIVES?

No, 37%

Yes, 63%

Myanmar: I will abandon my mini-grid

operation

• 63% of mini-grid operators answered

that they will stop operating when the

national grid arrives.

• None of consolidated licensees

reported that they will stop

operating.

No, 10%

Yes, 80%

Don't know, 10%

Cambodia: I will keep my distribution

licensee

• 80% of the consolidated licensees

will convert their licensee into the

distribution license.