Country Report Italy - International Actuarial Association...Country Report Italy Main Updates...

Country Report Italy Main Updates

November 2016

Ermanno Pitacco ermanno.pitacco@deams.units.it

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Contents

1. Population statistics - ISTAT (Italian national institute for statistics)

1a. Population mortality

1b. Other population statistics

1c. Mortality projections

2. Pensioners’ mortality - ONA (Actuarial professional body)

3. Annuitants’ mortality - ANIA (Association of Italian insurers)

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1. Population statistics (ISTAT)

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Survival curves lx (males)

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

lx

age

ISTAT 1881

ISTAT 1901

ISTAT 1931

ISTAT 1951

ISTAT 1961

ISTAT 1971

ISTAT 1981

ISTAT 1991

ISTAT 2001

ISTAT 2011

1a. Population mortality

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Curves of deaths dx (males)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

dx

age

ISTAT 1881

ISTAT 1901

ISTAT 1931

ISTAT 1951

ISTAT 1961

ISTAT 1971

ISTAT 1981

ISTAT 1991

ISTAT 2001

ISTAT 2011

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Mortality profiles (males)

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

qx(t

)/qx(1

901)

Calendar year

x = 50

x = 55

x = 60

x = 65

x = 70

x = 75

x = 80

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

mark

er e0

Lexis

e65+65

Summary statistics (males)

Life expectancy (period), census 2011

At the birth • males: 79.4

• females: 84.5

At 65 • males: 18.4

• females: 21.5

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8

Curves of deaths over 65 (males)

0

0,01

0,02

0,03

0,04

0,05

0,06

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110

ISTAT 1881

ISTAT 1901

ISTAT 1931

ISTAT 1951

ISTAT 1961

ISTAT 1971

ISTAT 1981

ISTAT 1991

ISTAT 2001

ISTAT 2011

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0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

lx

Age

M

F

Survival curves lx (2011; females - males)

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One-year prob. of death qx (2011; females - males)

0

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,1

0,12

0,14

0,16

0,18

60 65 70 75 80 85 90

qx

Age

M

F

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Population size

1b. Other population statistics

12 Population structure by age (2015)

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Population dynamics

Frequency of ISTAT population statistics

2012: shift from 10-year census statistics to “continuous-census” system: data are collected from local institutions (viz municipalities) on a one-year basis (validation procedures required)

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Most recent projection: 2012

Mortality projection based on Lee-Carter

Mortality projections in the framework of population projections

Three demographic scenarios defined: • unchanged current demographic scenario, extrapolation of recent

mortality trend central estimate

• various assumptions concerning immigration, fertility, etc. high and low estimates

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1c. Mortality projections

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Life expectancy at 65 (males)

2. Pensioners’ mortality (ONA)

Mortality of Italian pensioners and annuitants analyzed by a Working Group coordinated by Ordine Nazionale degli Attuari (the Italian actuarial professional body) Observation period: 1980 – 2009 Mortality projections to 2040 have been published • Reference population:

– almost 10 millions pensioners (in 2009), belonging to various pension plans, managed by public and private institutions

– corresponding to approx 142 billions Euro of annual benefits

• Projection methods adopted: – stochastic methods: Lee-Carter model, log-bilinerar Poisson model,

Renshaw-Haberman model with cohort effect – deterministic method: the APC (Age-Period-Cohort) model, proposed

by the Continuous Mortality Investigation Bureau in UK

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• Ultimate aim: construction of projected mortality tables, separately referring to various “categories”, and in particular: – pensioners of the private sector

– pensioners of the public sector

– self-employed, split into professional categories (lawyers, doctors, etc.)

Source (English text):

http://www.ordineattuari.it/media/6565/Rapporto%20percettori%20finale%20incl%20allegati%20inglese_580.pdf

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One-year prob. of death qx (males - females)

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One-year prob. of death qx (males - females)

Life expectancy at 65, males

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22

Life expectancy at 65, females

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Projected life expectancy at 65, males

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Projected life expectancy at 65, females

3. Annuitants’ mortality (ANIA) Construction of biometric bases for life annuities (2014)

Tables A1900-2020 • two-dimension tables; M, F

• derived from ISTAT 2011 projections, adjusted via self-selection coefficients (derived from CMI statistics)

Tables A62 • one-dimension tables, extracted from Tables A1900-2020: cohort

1962; M, F

• age-shift method for other cohorts

• different self-selection coefficients • A62I: immediate life annuities

• A62D: deferred life annuities

• A62C: group life annuities

• unisex tables, according to various gender mix assumptions

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