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1Thursday 13 November 2018 Borneo Convention Centre Kuching Malaysia
Cost Benefit Analysis on Fuel EconomyThailand amp The Philippines
Peerawat SAISIRIRAT
Renewable Energy LaboratoryNational Metal and Materials Technology Center (MTEC)
ampThe ASEAN ndash German Technical Cooperation Programme
ldquoCities Environment and TransportrdquoTransport and Climate Change
The 2nd APEC Workshop on Policy Dialogue on Fuel Economy Platformamp
The 4th Forum of the ASEAN Fuel Economy Platform
2ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Outline
bull Rationales and introduction
bull Cost benefit analysis of fuel economy improvement in Thailand
bull Results in customerrsquos viewpoint (Total Cost of Ownership)
bull Results in governmentrsquos viewpoint
bull Impacts of fuel economy improvement in the Philippines
bull Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts on FE improvement (Thailand amp Philippines)
3
Rationale Thailand final energy consumption
bull Transportation sector begins to exceed industry sector since 2015
bull Energy efficiency is the key
DEDE (2017) Energy Balance of Thailand 25602017 httpwwwdedegothdownloadstate_61Energy Balance of Thailand 2017pdf
EPPO (2017) Final Energy by Sector (Graph) httpwwweppogothindexphpenen-energystatisticssummary-
statisticorders[publishUp]=publishUpampissearch=1 httpwwweppogotheppositeimagesEnergy-
StatisticsenergyinformationEnergy_StatisticsSummaryT01_02_04ppt
Transportation
Industry
Residential amp Commercial
Agriculture
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
TransportationIndustry
Residential amp CommercialAgriculture
2017p
4
Impacts of road transport by vehicle type in Thailand
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV)share large contribution in road transport
5
FE Policy in ASEAN amp Thailand
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwaseanorgstorage20160111publicationKUALA_LUMPUR_TRANSPORT_STRATEGIC_PLANpdf
httpwwwaseanenergyorgwp-contentuploads201512HighRes-APAEC-online-version-finalpdf
httpwwwratchakitchasocgothDATAPDF2559A1151PDF
ASEAN Cooperation in Transportation Fuel Economy
TRANSPORT
sustainable transport
standards regulations
ENERGY
20 improvement of
energy intensity
National Economic and Social Development Plan
improve energy efficiencyby introducing
CO2-based excise tax
6
Thailand policy on fuel economy NDC amp EEP
EEP Energy Efficiency Plan
GHG reduction in transportation sector
NDC
Nationally Determined Contribution ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
7
Thailand position in the world and possibility to improve vehicle FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
8
Government activities to improve FE of new vehicles
bull Thailand vehicle excise tax structure
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Tax Structure Before Janrsquo2016 Tax Structure Eff 1 Jan 2016
HEV-PPV le175 gkm= 23
HEV-DC le175 gkm= 10
EV tax=2
Hybrid tax divide 2
Updated on 20 June 2018
Updated on 20 June 2018
Dec 2012
for implementation
on 1 Jan 2016
9
Government activities to improve FE of new vehicles
bull Thailand vehicle excise tax structure
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
4 5 5) Suggested Price (Excise Tax Rate)
Updated on
16 September 2017
10
Fuel Efficiency Policies in the Land Transport Sector in Thailand
bull A study of the Transport and Climate Change (TCC)
Phase I
1 To collect necessary data and conduct a policy inventory related to fuel efficiency policies and measures
2 To use this policy inventory to conduct a gap analysis of what is missing for increased energy efficiency for PCs and MCs
3 To identify key issues barriers opportunities and recommendations for advancing fuel efficiency policies in Thailand
Phase II
1 To create a template for FE data collection to update the data (up to year 2017) and the policiesmeasures related to fuel efficiency and to analyse the impact of existing FE policies and to provide the recommendations for FE improvement
2 To analyse COST-BENEFIT OF FE POLICIESMEASURES implementation and model the IMPACTS OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS and create recommendationskey considerations on implementing proposed FE policiesmeasurements and improving the FE technology
3 To create common understanding and good cooperation among stakeholders including government private sector and customer groups regarding the improvement of fuel efficiency of passenger cars and motorcycles in Thailand
4 To push forward advance FE policiesmeasures to actual implementation
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Phase IPhase II (Draft)
httpswwwtransportandclimatechangeorg
11
Scenario definition of FE development 2016 2030
According on current situation nominal improvement rate GFEI Target
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
bull Current NO FE improvement
According to
GFEI Global
Target
bull BAU FE improvement of 10 annual rate
bull GFEI Target - FE improvement of 31 annual rate Projection toward
44 Lge100km at 2030
(market average for
PC amp PU) then assume FE
improvement at constant rate
of 10 annually
12
3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
Aims of ldquoCost Benefit Analysisrdquo
To analyze cost benefit of proposed
FE policymeasure implementation
To model the impacts of possible scenario and
To create recommendationskey considerations
on implementing proposed FE policymeasures
and improving the FE technology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Revise the Excise tax scheme
for new vehicles
Improve Eco-sticker
Revise Fuel tax
Annual registration tax
13
Required FE policy toward desired FE target
bull Focusing on 3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Assumption BAUAssumptions for
GFEI target scenario
Industry baseline for FC improvement rate 100 100
Impact of eco-sticker on FC improvement rate - 01
Linear slope of excise tax
[THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car 3145 4029
Pickup truck 1044 1999
Linear slope of annual
registration tax [THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car As a function of engine size 110
Pickup truck As a function of vehicle curb weight 132
Fuel tax increase () Static fuel price 20
Target 2016 2030
PC 568 366
PU 767 494
Average 681 438
14
Methodology of the COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
bull Impacts projection of FE policy by using FEPIT (Fuel Economy Policy Implementation Tool)
OUTPUT Policy intensive level Excise tax Circulation tax Fuel tax toward the desired FE target
Projection of Market share
Projection of Fuel Consumption for Passenger car amp Pickup truck
bull Determine impacts on Owner (customer) lsquos viewpoint (comparing by Net Present Value in 20 years)
By variations of Capital cost Vehicle price at factory gate (with improvement of Fuel Economydagger)
Capital cost Excise tax change
Annual registration tax change
Fuel expense decrease with FE improvement change with fuel price
Maintenance cost depended on technology (cost for EV is higher for battery replacement)
bull Determine impacts on government lsquos viewpoint (eg fuel saving CO2 reduction government income taxes)
FEPIT Tool ndash Fuel Economy Implementation Tool ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation)
daggerCost curve with FE improvement ndash mainly from ICCT
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
15
Updated FE database for new Passenger Light Duty Vehicle (PLDV)
Vehicle typesNew sale (Top 10 ranked vehicles) Weighted-average FC (Lge100 km)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 Eco car 187429 118519 87745 114095 156234 488 489 488 475 476
2 City car subcompact Sedan amp
Hatchback
271018 167522 117548 76447 86200 599 598 578 585 582
3 Compact car C-segment
Sedan Hatchback Coupe Roadster
89975 66586 40624 47820 53797 645 651 655 619 614
4 D-segment full size sedan 34363 19343 16407 12312 9118 722 733 711 725 725
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 42046 41046 50690 39417 40293 744 695 662 625 625
6 SUV and MPV 10307 10617 14332 13790 22974 883 774 759 774 748
7 PPV 58942 48646 69063 60683 59576 952 917 843 815 815
8 Single cab pickup 75024 51325 50851 48127 44485 765 766 760 740 736
9 Extra cab pickup 278019 206130 168236 176758 186727 769 770 769 740 744
10 4 doors pickup 164650 114385 107986 108602 157299 855 856 858 796 791
Sub-total vehicle ( share of
total vehicle registration)
1211773
(9325)
844119
(9328)
723482
(9088)
698051
(8602)
816703
(8879)
DLT new registers 1299508 904969 796089 811518 919820
Annual weighted-average FC 698 701 708 681 675
FC change 04 09 -38 -09
Weight Average FE of Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV) sales during 2013-2017
Ref GIZ study based on data from Department of Land Transporthttpwwwfiafoundationorgmedia45112wp11-iea-report-update-2014pdfhttpswwwglobalfueleconomyorgmedia418761wp15-ldv-comparisonpdf
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
54 59 5869 79 77
71 76 76
2013 2014 2015
16
Vehicles classification for FEPIT tool
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2016 Data
Vehicle types
Corrected data Prepared data for FEPIT input
Weighted-average FC
(Lge100 km)
Vehicle class FC range
(Lge100km)
CO2 range
(gCO2km)
Passenger car 2016 average (568)
BEV 15 357
PHEV 30 714
1 Eco car 475 HEV 53 1261
2 City car subcompact 585 ECO Car 2 lt 43 lt 1023
3 Compact car C-segment 619 Eco Car 1 43 ndash 51 1023 ndash 1213
4 D-segment full size sedan 725 Compact car 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 625 Mini-MPV B-SUV 63 ndash 84 1499 ndash 1998
6 SUV and MPV 774 SUV Full size MPV gt 84 gt 1998
Pickup based 2016 average (767)(singlespacedouble cabs amp PPV) BEV 2638 6275
PHEV 4475 10645
HEV 6313 15015
ICE1 lt 51 lt 1213
7 PPV 815 ICE2 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
8 Single cab pickup 740 ICE3 63 ndash 74 1499 ndash 1760
9 Extra cab pickup 740 ICE4 74 ndash 84 1760 ndash 1998
10 4 doors pickup 796 ICE5 gt 84 gt 1998
PLDV average 681
Exci
se ta
x st
ruct
urebull Thai excise tax rate use
different criteria between
passenger car (tougher)
and pickup truck (more
lenient)
bull Even within pickup truck
with same CO2
emissionkm excise tax
rates are different
1 lt 15 lt 2 compartments
17
FEPIT prediction of new passenger car mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Label shows average FE [Lge100km]
in that vehicle segment which
improved with FEPIT estimationProjection
Passenger car
2016 2030
Projection
568 366 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
18
FEPIT prediction of new pickup truck mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Projection
Pickup based (SingleSpaceDouble Cabs amp PPV)
2016 2030
Projection
767 494 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
2ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Outline
bull Rationales and introduction
bull Cost benefit analysis of fuel economy improvement in Thailand
bull Results in customerrsquos viewpoint (Total Cost of Ownership)
bull Results in governmentrsquos viewpoint
bull Impacts of fuel economy improvement in the Philippines
bull Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts on FE improvement (Thailand amp Philippines)
3
Rationale Thailand final energy consumption
bull Transportation sector begins to exceed industry sector since 2015
bull Energy efficiency is the key
DEDE (2017) Energy Balance of Thailand 25602017 httpwwwdedegothdownloadstate_61Energy Balance of Thailand 2017pdf
EPPO (2017) Final Energy by Sector (Graph) httpwwweppogothindexphpenen-energystatisticssummary-
statisticorders[publishUp]=publishUpampissearch=1 httpwwweppogotheppositeimagesEnergy-
StatisticsenergyinformationEnergy_StatisticsSummaryT01_02_04ppt
Transportation
Industry
Residential amp Commercial
Agriculture
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
TransportationIndustry
Residential amp CommercialAgriculture
2017p
4
Impacts of road transport by vehicle type in Thailand
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV)share large contribution in road transport
5
FE Policy in ASEAN amp Thailand
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwaseanorgstorage20160111publicationKUALA_LUMPUR_TRANSPORT_STRATEGIC_PLANpdf
httpwwwaseanenergyorgwp-contentuploads201512HighRes-APAEC-online-version-finalpdf
httpwwwratchakitchasocgothDATAPDF2559A1151PDF
ASEAN Cooperation in Transportation Fuel Economy
TRANSPORT
sustainable transport
standards regulations
ENERGY
20 improvement of
energy intensity
National Economic and Social Development Plan
improve energy efficiencyby introducing
CO2-based excise tax
6
Thailand policy on fuel economy NDC amp EEP
EEP Energy Efficiency Plan
GHG reduction in transportation sector
NDC
Nationally Determined Contribution ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
7
Thailand position in the world and possibility to improve vehicle FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
8
Government activities to improve FE of new vehicles
bull Thailand vehicle excise tax structure
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Tax Structure Before Janrsquo2016 Tax Structure Eff 1 Jan 2016
HEV-PPV le175 gkm= 23
HEV-DC le175 gkm= 10
EV tax=2
Hybrid tax divide 2
Updated on 20 June 2018
Updated on 20 June 2018
Dec 2012
for implementation
on 1 Jan 2016
9
Government activities to improve FE of new vehicles
bull Thailand vehicle excise tax structure
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
4 5 5) Suggested Price (Excise Tax Rate)
Updated on
16 September 2017
10
Fuel Efficiency Policies in the Land Transport Sector in Thailand
bull A study of the Transport and Climate Change (TCC)
Phase I
1 To collect necessary data and conduct a policy inventory related to fuel efficiency policies and measures
2 To use this policy inventory to conduct a gap analysis of what is missing for increased energy efficiency for PCs and MCs
3 To identify key issues barriers opportunities and recommendations for advancing fuel efficiency policies in Thailand
Phase II
1 To create a template for FE data collection to update the data (up to year 2017) and the policiesmeasures related to fuel efficiency and to analyse the impact of existing FE policies and to provide the recommendations for FE improvement
2 To analyse COST-BENEFIT OF FE POLICIESMEASURES implementation and model the IMPACTS OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS and create recommendationskey considerations on implementing proposed FE policiesmeasurements and improving the FE technology
3 To create common understanding and good cooperation among stakeholders including government private sector and customer groups regarding the improvement of fuel efficiency of passenger cars and motorcycles in Thailand
4 To push forward advance FE policiesmeasures to actual implementation
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Phase IPhase II (Draft)
httpswwwtransportandclimatechangeorg
11
Scenario definition of FE development 2016 2030
According on current situation nominal improvement rate GFEI Target
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
bull Current NO FE improvement
According to
GFEI Global
Target
bull BAU FE improvement of 10 annual rate
bull GFEI Target - FE improvement of 31 annual rate Projection toward
44 Lge100km at 2030
(market average for
PC amp PU) then assume FE
improvement at constant rate
of 10 annually
12
3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
Aims of ldquoCost Benefit Analysisrdquo
To analyze cost benefit of proposed
FE policymeasure implementation
To model the impacts of possible scenario and
To create recommendationskey considerations
on implementing proposed FE policymeasures
and improving the FE technology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Revise the Excise tax scheme
for new vehicles
Improve Eco-sticker
Revise Fuel tax
Annual registration tax
13
Required FE policy toward desired FE target
bull Focusing on 3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Assumption BAUAssumptions for
GFEI target scenario
Industry baseline for FC improvement rate 100 100
Impact of eco-sticker on FC improvement rate - 01
Linear slope of excise tax
[THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car 3145 4029
Pickup truck 1044 1999
Linear slope of annual
registration tax [THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car As a function of engine size 110
Pickup truck As a function of vehicle curb weight 132
Fuel tax increase () Static fuel price 20
Target 2016 2030
PC 568 366
PU 767 494
Average 681 438
14
Methodology of the COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
bull Impacts projection of FE policy by using FEPIT (Fuel Economy Policy Implementation Tool)
OUTPUT Policy intensive level Excise tax Circulation tax Fuel tax toward the desired FE target
Projection of Market share
Projection of Fuel Consumption for Passenger car amp Pickup truck
bull Determine impacts on Owner (customer) lsquos viewpoint (comparing by Net Present Value in 20 years)
By variations of Capital cost Vehicle price at factory gate (with improvement of Fuel Economydagger)
Capital cost Excise tax change
Annual registration tax change
Fuel expense decrease with FE improvement change with fuel price
Maintenance cost depended on technology (cost for EV is higher for battery replacement)
bull Determine impacts on government lsquos viewpoint (eg fuel saving CO2 reduction government income taxes)
FEPIT Tool ndash Fuel Economy Implementation Tool ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation)
daggerCost curve with FE improvement ndash mainly from ICCT
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
15
Updated FE database for new Passenger Light Duty Vehicle (PLDV)
Vehicle typesNew sale (Top 10 ranked vehicles) Weighted-average FC (Lge100 km)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 Eco car 187429 118519 87745 114095 156234 488 489 488 475 476
2 City car subcompact Sedan amp
Hatchback
271018 167522 117548 76447 86200 599 598 578 585 582
3 Compact car C-segment
Sedan Hatchback Coupe Roadster
89975 66586 40624 47820 53797 645 651 655 619 614
4 D-segment full size sedan 34363 19343 16407 12312 9118 722 733 711 725 725
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 42046 41046 50690 39417 40293 744 695 662 625 625
6 SUV and MPV 10307 10617 14332 13790 22974 883 774 759 774 748
7 PPV 58942 48646 69063 60683 59576 952 917 843 815 815
8 Single cab pickup 75024 51325 50851 48127 44485 765 766 760 740 736
9 Extra cab pickup 278019 206130 168236 176758 186727 769 770 769 740 744
10 4 doors pickup 164650 114385 107986 108602 157299 855 856 858 796 791
Sub-total vehicle ( share of
total vehicle registration)
1211773
(9325)
844119
(9328)
723482
(9088)
698051
(8602)
816703
(8879)
DLT new registers 1299508 904969 796089 811518 919820
Annual weighted-average FC 698 701 708 681 675
FC change 04 09 -38 -09
Weight Average FE of Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV) sales during 2013-2017
Ref GIZ study based on data from Department of Land Transporthttpwwwfiafoundationorgmedia45112wp11-iea-report-update-2014pdfhttpswwwglobalfueleconomyorgmedia418761wp15-ldv-comparisonpdf
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
54 59 5869 79 77
71 76 76
2013 2014 2015
16
Vehicles classification for FEPIT tool
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2016 Data
Vehicle types
Corrected data Prepared data for FEPIT input
Weighted-average FC
(Lge100 km)
Vehicle class FC range
(Lge100km)
CO2 range
(gCO2km)
Passenger car 2016 average (568)
BEV 15 357
PHEV 30 714
1 Eco car 475 HEV 53 1261
2 City car subcompact 585 ECO Car 2 lt 43 lt 1023
3 Compact car C-segment 619 Eco Car 1 43 ndash 51 1023 ndash 1213
4 D-segment full size sedan 725 Compact car 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 625 Mini-MPV B-SUV 63 ndash 84 1499 ndash 1998
6 SUV and MPV 774 SUV Full size MPV gt 84 gt 1998
Pickup based 2016 average (767)(singlespacedouble cabs amp PPV) BEV 2638 6275
PHEV 4475 10645
HEV 6313 15015
ICE1 lt 51 lt 1213
7 PPV 815 ICE2 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
8 Single cab pickup 740 ICE3 63 ndash 74 1499 ndash 1760
9 Extra cab pickup 740 ICE4 74 ndash 84 1760 ndash 1998
10 4 doors pickup 796 ICE5 gt 84 gt 1998
PLDV average 681
Exci
se ta
x st
ruct
urebull Thai excise tax rate use
different criteria between
passenger car (tougher)
and pickup truck (more
lenient)
bull Even within pickup truck
with same CO2
emissionkm excise tax
rates are different
1 lt 15 lt 2 compartments
17
FEPIT prediction of new passenger car mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Label shows average FE [Lge100km]
in that vehicle segment which
improved with FEPIT estimationProjection
Passenger car
2016 2030
Projection
568 366 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
18
FEPIT prediction of new pickup truck mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Projection
Pickup based (SingleSpaceDouble Cabs amp PPV)
2016 2030
Projection
767 494 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
3
Rationale Thailand final energy consumption
bull Transportation sector begins to exceed industry sector since 2015
bull Energy efficiency is the key
DEDE (2017) Energy Balance of Thailand 25602017 httpwwwdedegothdownloadstate_61Energy Balance of Thailand 2017pdf
EPPO (2017) Final Energy by Sector (Graph) httpwwweppogothindexphpenen-energystatisticssummary-
statisticorders[publishUp]=publishUpampissearch=1 httpwwweppogotheppositeimagesEnergy-
StatisticsenergyinformationEnergy_StatisticsSummaryT01_02_04ppt
Transportation
Industry
Residential amp Commercial
Agriculture
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
TransportationIndustry
Residential amp CommercialAgriculture
2017p
4
Impacts of road transport by vehicle type in Thailand
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV)share large contribution in road transport
5
FE Policy in ASEAN amp Thailand
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwaseanorgstorage20160111publicationKUALA_LUMPUR_TRANSPORT_STRATEGIC_PLANpdf
httpwwwaseanenergyorgwp-contentuploads201512HighRes-APAEC-online-version-finalpdf
httpwwwratchakitchasocgothDATAPDF2559A1151PDF
ASEAN Cooperation in Transportation Fuel Economy
TRANSPORT
sustainable transport
standards regulations
ENERGY
20 improvement of
energy intensity
National Economic and Social Development Plan
improve energy efficiencyby introducing
CO2-based excise tax
6
Thailand policy on fuel economy NDC amp EEP
EEP Energy Efficiency Plan
GHG reduction in transportation sector
NDC
Nationally Determined Contribution ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
7
Thailand position in the world and possibility to improve vehicle FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
8
Government activities to improve FE of new vehicles
bull Thailand vehicle excise tax structure
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Tax Structure Before Janrsquo2016 Tax Structure Eff 1 Jan 2016
HEV-PPV le175 gkm= 23
HEV-DC le175 gkm= 10
EV tax=2
Hybrid tax divide 2
Updated on 20 June 2018
Updated on 20 June 2018
Dec 2012
for implementation
on 1 Jan 2016
9
Government activities to improve FE of new vehicles
bull Thailand vehicle excise tax structure
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
4 5 5) Suggested Price (Excise Tax Rate)
Updated on
16 September 2017
10
Fuel Efficiency Policies in the Land Transport Sector in Thailand
bull A study of the Transport and Climate Change (TCC)
Phase I
1 To collect necessary data and conduct a policy inventory related to fuel efficiency policies and measures
2 To use this policy inventory to conduct a gap analysis of what is missing for increased energy efficiency for PCs and MCs
3 To identify key issues barriers opportunities and recommendations for advancing fuel efficiency policies in Thailand
Phase II
1 To create a template for FE data collection to update the data (up to year 2017) and the policiesmeasures related to fuel efficiency and to analyse the impact of existing FE policies and to provide the recommendations for FE improvement
2 To analyse COST-BENEFIT OF FE POLICIESMEASURES implementation and model the IMPACTS OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS and create recommendationskey considerations on implementing proposed FE policiesmeasurements and improving the FE technology
3 To create common understanding and good cooperation among stakeholders including government private sector and customer groups regarding the improvement of fuel efficiency of passenger cars and motorcycles in Thailand
4 To push forward advance FE policiesmeasures to actual implementation
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Phase IPhase II (Draft)
httpswwwtransportandclimatechangeorg
11
Scenario definition of FE development 2016 2030
According on current situation nominal improvement rate GFEI Target
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
bull Current NO FE improvement
According to
GFEI Global
Target
bull BAU FE improvement of 10 annual rate
bull GFEI Target - FE improvement of 31 annual rate Projection toward
44 Lge100km at 2030
(market average for
PC amp PU) then assume FE
improvement at constant rate
of 10 annually
12
3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
Aims of ldquoCost Benefit Analysisrdquo
To analyze cost benefit of proposed
FE policymeasure implementation
To model the impacts of possible scenario and
To create recommendationskey considerations
on implementing proposed FE policymeasures
and improving the FE technology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Revise the Excise tax scheme
for new vehicles
Improve Eco-sticker
Revise Fuel tax
Annual registration tax
13
Required FE policy toward desired FE target
bull Focusing on 3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Assumption BAUAssumptions for
GFEI target scenario
Industry baseline for FC improvement rate 100 100
Impact of eco-sticker on FC improvement rate - 01
Linear slope of excise tax
[THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car 3145 4029
Pickup truck 1044 1999
Linear slope of annual
registration tax [THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car As a function of engine size 110
Pickup truck As a function of vehicle curb weight 132
Fuel tax increase () Static fuel price 20
Target 2016 2030
PC 568 366
PU 767 494
Average 681 438
14
Methodology of the COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
bull Impacts projection of FE policy by using FEPIT (Fuel Economy Policy Implementation Tool)
OUTPUT Policy intensive level Excise tax Circulation tax Fuel tax toward the desired FE target
Projection of Market share
Projection of Fuel Consumption for Passenger car amp Pickup truck
bull Determine impacts on Owner (customer) lsquos viewpoint (comparing by Net Present Value in 20 years)
By variations of Capital cost Vehicle price at factory gate (with improvement of Fuel Economydagger)
Capital cost Excise tax change
Annual registration tax change
Fuel expense decrease with FE improvement change with fuel price
Maintenance cost depended on technology (cost for EV is higher for battery replacement)
bull Determine impacts on government lsquos viewpoint (eg fuel saving CO2 reduction government income taxes)
FEPIT Tool ndash Fuel Economy Implementation Tool ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation)
daggerCost curve with FE improvement ndash mainly from ICCT
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
15
Updated FE database for new Passenger Light Duty Vehicle (PLDV)
Vehicle typesNew sale (Top 10 ranked vehicles) Weighted-average FC (Lge100 km)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 Eco car 187429 118519 87745 114095 156234 488 489 488 475 476
2 City car subcompact Sedan amp
Hatchback
271018 167522 117548 76447 86200 599 598 578 585 582
3 Compact car C-segment
Sedan Hatchback Coupe Roadster
89975 66586 40624 47820 53797 645 651 655 619 614
4 D-segment full size sedan 34363 19343 16407 12312 9118 722 733 711 725 725
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 42046 41046 50690 39417 40293 744 695 662 625 625
6 SUV and MPV 10307 10617 14332 13790 22974 883 774 759 774 748
7 PPV 58942 48646 69063 60683 59576 952 917 843 815 815
8 Single cab pickup 75024 51325 50851 48127 44485 765 766 760 740 736
9 Extra cab pickup 278019 206130 168236 176758 186727 769 770 769 740 744
10 4 doors pickup 164650 114385 107986 108602 157299 855 856 858 796 791
Sub-total vehicle ( share of
total vehicle registration)
1211773
(9325)
844119
(9328)
723482
(9088)
698051
(8602)
816703
(8879)
DLT new registers 1299508 904969 796089 811518 919820
Annual weighted-average FC 698 701 708 681 675
FC change 04 09 -38 -09
Weight Average FE of Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV) sales during 2013-2017
Ref GIZ study based on data from Department of Land Transporthttpwwwfiafoundationorgmedia45112wp11-iea-report-update-2014pdfhttpswwwglobalfueleconomyorgmedia418761wp15-ldv-comparisonpdf
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
54 59 5869 79 77
71 76 76
2013 2014 2015
16
Vehicles classification for FEPIT tool
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2016 Data
Vehicle types
Corrected data Prepared data for FEPIT input
Weighted-average FC
(Lge100 km)
Vehicle class FC range
(Lge100km)
CO2 range
(gCO2km)
Passenger car 2016 average (568)
BEV 15 357
PHEV 30 714
1 Eco car 475 HEV 53 1261
2 City car subcompact 585 ECO Car 2 lt 43 lt 1023
3 Compact car C-segment 619 Eco Car 1 43 ndash 51 1023 ndash 1213
4 D-segment full size sedan 725 Compact car 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 625 Mini-MPV B-SUV 63 ndash 84 1499 ndash 1998
6 SUV and MPV 774 SUV Full size MPV gt 84 gt 1998
Pickup based 2016 average (767)(singlespacedouble cabs amp PPV) BEV 2638 6275
PHEV 4475 10645
HEV 6313 15015
ICE1 lt 51 lt 1213
7 PPV 815 ICE2 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
8 Single cab pickup 740 ICE3 63 ndash 74 1499 ndash 1760
9 Extra cab pickup 740 ICE4 74 ndash 84 1760 ndash 1998
10 4 doors pickup 796 ICE5 gt 84 gt 1998
PLDV average 681
Exci
se ta
x st
ruct
urebull Thai excise tax rate use
different criteria between
passenger car (tougher)
and pickup truck (more
lenient)
bull Even within pickup truck
with same CO2
emissionkm excise tax
rates are different
1 lt 15 lt 2 compartments
17
FEPIT prediction of new passenger car mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Label shows average FE [Lge100km]
in that vehicle segment which
improved with FEPIT estimationProjection
Passenger car
2016 2030
Projection
568 366 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
18
FEPIT prediction of new pickup truck mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Projection
Pickup based (SingleSpaceDouble Cabs amp PPV)
2016 2030
Projection
767 494 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
4
Impacts of road transport by vehicle type in Thailand
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV)share large contribution in road transport
5
FE Policy in ASEAN amp Thailand
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwaseanorgstorage20160111publicationKUALA_LUMPUR_TRANSPORT_STRATEGIC_PLANpdf
httpwwwaseanenergyorgwp-contentuploads201512HighRes-APAEC-online-version-finalpdf
httpwwwratchakitchasocgothDATAPDF2559A1151PDF
ASEAN Cooperation in Transportation Fuel Economy
TRANSPORT
sustainable transport
standards regulations
ENERGY
20 improvement of
energy intensity
National Economic and Social Development Plan
improve energy efficiencyby introducing
CO2-based excise tax
6
Thailand policy on fuel economy NDC amp EEP
EEP Energy Efficiency Plan
GHG reduction in transportation sector
NDC
Nationally Determined Contribution ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
7
Thailand position in the world and possibility to improve vehicle FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
8
Government activities to improve FE of new vehicles
bull Thailand vehicle excise tax structure
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Tax Structure Before Janrsquo2016 Tax Structure Eff 1 Jan 2016
HEV-PPV le175 gkm= 23
HEV-DC le175 gkm= 10
EV tax=2
Hybrid tax divide 2
Updated on 20 June 2018
Updated on 20 June 2018
Dec 2012
for implementation
on 1 Jan 2016
9
Government activities to improve FE of new vehicles
bull Thailand vehicle excise tax structure
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
4 5 5) Suggested Price (Excise Tax Rate)
Updated on
16 September 2017
10
Fuel Efficiency Policies in the Land Transport Sector in Thailand
bull A study of the Transport and Climate Change (TCC)
Phase I
1 To collect necessary data and conduct a policy inventory related to fuel efficiency policies and measures
2 To use this policy inventory to conduct a gap analysis of what is missing for increased energy efficiency for PCs and MCs
3 To identify key issues barriers opportunities and recommendations for advancing fuel efficiency policies in Thailand
Phase II
1 To create a template for FE data collection to update the data (up to year 2017) and the policiesmeasures related to fuel efficiency and to analyse the impact of existing FE policies and to provide the recommendations for FE improvement
2 To analyse COST-BENEFIT OF FE POLICIESMEASURES implementation and model the IMPACTS OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS and create recommendationskey considerations on implementing proposed FE policiesmeasurements and improving the FE technology
3 To create common understanding and good cooperation among stakeholders including government private sector and customer groups regarding the improvement of fuel efficiency of passenger cars and motorcycles in Thailand
4 To push forward advance FE policiesmeasures to actual implementation
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Phase IPhase II (Draft)
httpswwwtransportandclimatechangeorg
11
Scenario definition of FE development 2016 2030
According on current situation nominal improvement rate GFEI Target
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
bull Current NO FE improvement
According to
GFEI Global
Target
bull BAU FE improvement of 10 annual rate
bull GFEI Target - FE improvement of 31 annual rate Projection toward
44 Lge100km at 2030
(market average for
PC amp PU) then assume FE
improvement at constant rate
of 10 annually
12
3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
Aims of ldquoCost Benefit Analysisrdquo
To analyze cost benefit of proposed
FE policymeasure implementation
To model the impacts of possible scenario and
To create recommendationskey considerations
on implementing proposed FE policymeasures
and improving the FE technology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Revise the Excise tax scheme
for new vehicles
Improve Eco-sticker
Revise Fuel tax
Annual registration tax
13
Required FE policy toward desired FE target
bull Focusing on 3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Assumption BAUAssumptions for
GFEI target scenario
Industry baseline for FC improvement rate 100 100
Impact of eco-sticker on FC improvement rate - 01
Linear slope of excise tax
[THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car 3145 4029
Pickup truck 1044 1999
Linear slope of annual
registration tax [THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car As a function of engine size 110
Pickup truck As a function of vehicle curb weight 132
Fuel tax increase () Static fuel price 20
Target 2016 2030
PC 568 366
PU 767 494
Average 681 438
14
Methodology of the COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
bull Impacts projection of FE policy by using FEPIT (Fuel Economy Policy Implementation Tool)
OUTPUT Policy intensive level Excise tax Circulation tax Fuel tax toward the desired FE target
Projection of Market share
Projection of Fuel Consumption for Passenger car amp Pickup truck
bull Determine impacts on Owner (customer) lsquos viewpoint (comparing by Net Present Value in 20 years)
By variations of Capital cost Vehicle price at factory gate (with improvement of Fuel Economydagger)
Capital cost Excise tax change
Annual registration tax change
Fuel expense decrease with FE improvement change with fuel price
Maintenance cost depended on technology (cost for EV is higher for battery replacement)
bull Determine impacts on government lsquos viewpoint (eg fuel saving CO2 reduction government income taxes)
FEPIT Tool ndash Fuel Economy Implementation Tool ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation)
daggerCost curve with FE improvement ndash mainly from ICCT
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
15
Updated FE database for new Passenger Light Duty Vehicle (PLDV)
Vehicle typesNew sale (Top 10 ranked vehicles) Weighted-average FC (Lge100 km)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 Eco car 187429 118519 87745 114095 156234 488 489 488 475 476
2 City car subcompact Sedan amp
Hatchback
271018 167522 117548 76447 86200 599 598 578 585 582
3 Compact car C-segment
Sedan Hatchback Coupe Roadster
89975 66586 40624 47820 53797 645 651 655 619 614
4 D-segment full size sedan 34363 19343 16407 12312 9118 722 733 711 725 725
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 42046 41046 50690 39417 40293 744 695 662 625 625
6 SUV and MPV 10307 10617 14332 13790 22974 883 774 759 774 748
7 PPV 58942 48646 69063 60683 59576 952 917 843 815 815
8 Single cab pickup 75024 51325 50851 48127 44485 765 766 760 740 736
9 Extra cab pickup 278019 206130 168236 176758 186727 769 770 769 740 744
10 4 doors pickup 164650 114385 107986 108602 157299 855 856 858 796 791
Sub-total vehicle ( share of
total vehicle registration)
1211773
(9325)
844119
(9328)
723482
(9088)
698051
(8602)
816703
(8879)
DLT new registers 1299508 904969 796089 811518 919820
Annual weighted-average FC 698 701 708 681 675
FC change 04 09 -38 -09
Weight Average FE of Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV) sales during 2013-2017
Ref GIZ study based on data from Department of Land Transporthttpwwwfiafoundationorgmedia45112wp11-iea-report-update-2014pdfhttpswwwglobalfueleconomyorgmedia418761wp15-ldv-comparisonpdf
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
54 59 5869 79 77
71 76 76
2013 2014 2015
16
Vehicles classification for FEPIT tool
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2016 Data
Vehicle types
Corrected data Prepared data for FEPIT input
Weighted-average FC
(Lge100 km)
Vehicle class FC range
(Lge100km)
CO2 range
(gCO2km)
Passenger car 2016 average (568)
BEV 15 357
PHEV 30 714
1 Eco car 475 HEV 53 1261
2 City car subcompact 585 ECO Car 2 lt 43 lt 1023
3 Compact car C-segment 619 Eco Car 1 43 ndash 51 1023 ndash 1213
4 D-segment full size sedan 725 Compact car 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 625 Mini-MPV B-SUV 63 ndash 84 1499 ndash 1998
6 SUV and MPV 774 SUV Full size MPV gt 84 gt 1998
Pickup based 2016 average (767)(singlespacedouble cabs amp PPV) BEV 2638 6275
PHEV 4475 10645
HEV 6313 15015
ICE1 lt 51 lt 1213
7 PPV 815 ICE2 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
8 Single cab pickup 740 ICE3 63 ndash 74 1499 ndash 1760
9 Extra cab pickup 740 ICE4 74 ndash 84 1760 ndash 1998
10 4 doors pickup 796 ICE5 gt 84 gt 1998
PLDV average 681
Exci
se ta
x st
ruct
urebull Thai excise tax rate use
different criteria between
passenger car (tougher)
and pickup truck (more
lenient)
bull Even within pickup truck
with same CO2
emissionkm excise tax
rates are different
1 lt 15 lt 2 compartments
17
FEPIT prediction of new passenger car mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Label shows average FE [Lge100km]
in that vehicle segment which
improved with FEPIT estimationProjection
Passenger car
2016 2030
Projection
568 366 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
18
FEPIT prediction of new pickup truck mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Projection
Pickup based (SingleSpaceDouble Cabs amp PPV)
2016 2030
Projection
767 494 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
5
FE Policy in ASEAN amp Thailand
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwaseanorgstorage20160111publicationKUALA_LUMPUR_TRANSPORT_STRATEGIC_PLANpdf
httpwwwaseanenergyorgwp-contentuploads201512HighRes-APAEC-online-version-finalpdf
httpwwwratchakitchasocgothDATAPDF2559A1151PDF
ASEAN Cooperation in Transportation Fuel Economy
TRANSPORT
sustainable transport
standards regulations
ENERGY
20 improvement of
energy intensity
National Economic and Social Development Plan
improve energy efficiencyby introducing
CO2-based excise tax
6
Thailand policy on fuel economy NDC amp EEP
EEP Energy Efficiency Plan
GHG reduction in transportation sector
NDC
Nationally Determined Contribution ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
7
Thailand position in the world and possibility to improve vehicle FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
8
Government activities to improve FE of new vehicles
bull Thailand vehicle excise tax structure
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Tax Structure Before Janrsquo2016 Tax Structure Eff 1 Jan 2016
HEV-PPV le175 gkm= 23
HEV-DC le175 gkm= 10
EV tax=2
Hybrid tax divide 2
Updated on 20 June 2018
Updated on 20 June 2018
Dec 2012
for implementation
on 1 Jan 2016
9
Government activities to improve FE of new vehicles
bull Thailand vehicle excise tax structure
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
4 5 5) Suggested Price (Excise Tax Rate)
Updated on
16 September 2017
10
Fuel Efficiency Policies in the Land Transport Sector in Thailand
bull A study of the Transport and Climate Change (TCC)
Phase I
1 To collect necessary data and conduct a policy inventory related to fuel efficiency policies and measures
2 To use this policy inventory to conduct a gap analysis of what is missing for increased energy efficiency for PCs and MCs
3 To identify key issues barriers opportunities and recommendations for advancing fuel efficiency policies in Thailand
Phase II
1 To create a template for FE data collection to update the data (up to year 2017) and the policiesmeasures related to fuel efficiency and to analyse the impact of existing FE policies and to provide the recommendations for FE improvement
2 To analyse COST-BENEFIT OF FE POLICIESMEASURES implementation and model the IMPACTS OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS and create recommendationskey considerations on implementing proposed FE policiesmeasurements and improving the FE technology
3 To create common understanding and good cooperation among stakeholders including government private sector and customer groups regarding the improvement of fuel efficiency of passenger cars and motorcycles in Thailand
4 To push forward advance FE policiesmeasures to actual implementation
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Phase IPhase II (Draft)
httpswwwtransportandclimatechangeorg
11
Scenario definition of FE development 2016 2030
According on current situation nominal improvement rate GFEI Target
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
bull Current NO FE improvement
According to
GFEI Global
Target
bull BAU FE improvement of 10 annual rate
bull GFEI Target - FE improvement of 31 annual rate Projection toward
44 Lge100km at 2030
(market average for
PC amp PU) then assume FE
improvement at constant rate
of 10 annually
12
3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
Aims of ldquoCost Benefit Analysisrdquo
To analyze cost benefit of proposed
FE policymeasure implementation
To model the impacts of possible scenario and
To create recommendationskey considerations
on implementing proposed FE policymeasures
and improving the FE technology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Revise the Excise tax scheme
for new vehicles
Improve Eco-sticker
Revise Fuel tax
Annual registration tax
13
Required FE policy toward desired FE target
bull Focusing on 3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Assumption BAUAssumptions for
GFEI target scenario
Industry baseline for FC improvement rate 100 100
Impact of eco-sticker on FC improvement rate - 01
Linear slope of excise tax
[THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car 3145 4029
Pickup truck 1044 1999
Linear slope of annual
registration tax [THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car As a function of engine size 110
Pickup truck As a function of vehicle curb weight 132
Fuel tax increase () Static fuel price 20
Target 2016 2030
PC 568 366
PU 767 494
Average 681 438
14
Methodology of the COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
bull Impacts projection of FE policy by using FEPIT (Fuel Economy Policy Implementation Tool)
OUTPUT Policy intensive level Excise tax Circulation tax Fuel tax toward the desired FE target
Projection of Market share
Projection of Fuel Consumption for Passenger car amp Pickup truck
bull Determine impacts on Owner (customer) lsquos viewpoint (comparing by Net Present Value in 20 years)
By variations of Capital cost Vehicle price at factory gate (with improvement of Fuel Economydagger)
Capital cost Excise tax change
Annual registration tax change
Fuel expense decrease with FE improvement change with fuel price
Maintenance cost depended on technology (cost for EV is higher for battery replacement)
bull Determine impacts on government lsquos viewpoint (eg fuel saving CO2 reduction government income taxes)
FEPIT Tool ndash Fuel Economy Implementation Tool ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation)
daggerCost curve with FE improvement ndash mainly from ICCT
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
15
Updated FE database for new Passenger Light Duty Vehicle (PLDV)
Vehicle typesNew sale (Top 10 ranked vehicles) Weighted-average FC (Lge100 km)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 Eco car 187429 118519 87745 114095 156234 488 489 488 475 476
2 City car subcompact Sedan amp
Hatchback
271018 167522 117548 76447 86200 599 598 578 585 582
3 Compact car C-segment
Sedan Hatchback Coupe Roadster
89975 66586 40624 47820 53797 645 651 655 619 614
4 D-segment full size sedan 34363 19343 16407 12312 9118 722 733 711 725 725
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 42046 41046 50690 39417 40293 744 695 662 625 625
6 SUV and MPV 10307 10617 14332 13790 22974 883 774 759 774 748
7 PPV 58942 48646 69063 60683 59576 952 917 843 815 815
8 Single cab pickup 75024 51325 50851 48127 44485 765 766 760 740 736
9 Extra cab pickup 278019 206130 168236 176758 186727 769 770 769 740 744
10 4 doors pickup 164650 114385 107986 108602 157299 855 856 858 796 791
Sub-total vehicle ( share of
total vehicle registration)
1211773
(9325)
844119
(9328)
723482
(9088)
698051
(8602)
816703
(8879)
DLT new registers 1299508 904969 796089 811518 919820
Annual weighted-average FC 698 701 708 681 675
FC change 04 09 -38 -09
Weight Average FE of Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV) sales during 2013-2017
Ref GIZ study based on data from Department of Land Transporthttpwwwfiafoundationorgmedia45112wp11-iea-report-update-2014pdfhttpswwwglobalfueleconomyorgmedia418761wp15-ldv-comparisonpdf
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
54 59 5869 79 77
71 76 76
2013 2014 2015
16
Vehicles classification for FEPIT tool
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2016 Data
Vehicle types
Corrected data Prepared data for FEPIT input
Weighted-average FC
(Lge100 km)
Vehicle class FC range
(Lge100km)
CO2 range
(gCO2km)
Passenger car 2016 average (568)
BEV 15 357
PHEV 30 714
1 Eco car 475 HEV 53 1261
2 City car subcompact 585 ECO Car 2 lt 43 lt 1023
3 Compact car C-segment 619 Eco Car 1 43 ndash 51 1023 ndash 1213
4 D-segment full size sedan 725 Compact car 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 625 Mini-MPV B-SUV 63 ndash 84 1499 ndash 1998
6 SUV and MPV 774 SUV Full size MPV gt 84 gt 1998
Pickup based 2016 average (767)(singlespacedouble cabs amp PPV) BEV 2638 6275
PHEV 4475 10645
HEV 6313 15015
ICE1 lt 51 lt 1213
7 PPV 815 ICE2 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
8 Single cab pickup 740 ICE3 63 ndash 74 1499 ndash 1760
9 Extra cab pickup 740 ICE4 74 ndash 84 1760 ndash 1998
10 4 doors pickup 796 ICE5 gt 84 gt 1998
PLDV average 681
Exci
se ta
x st
ruct
urebull Thai excise tax rate use
different criteria between
passenger car (tougher)
and pickup truck (more
lenient)
bull Even within pickup truck
with same CO2
emissionkm excise tax
rates are different
1 lt 15 lt 2 compartments
17
FEPIT prediction of new passenger car mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Label shows average FE [Lge100km]
in that vehicle segment which
improved with FEPIT estimationProjection
Passenger car
2016 2030
Projection
568 366 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
18
FEPIT prediction of new pickup truck mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Projection
Pickup based (SingleSpaceDouble Cabs amp PPV)
2016 2030
Projection
767 494 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
6
Thailand policy on fuel economy NDC amp EEP
EEP Energy Efficiency Plan
GHG reduction in transportation sector
NDC
Nationally Determined Contribution ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
7
Thailand position in the world and possibility to improve vehicle FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
8
Government activities to improve FE of new vehicles
bull Thailand vehicle excise tax structure
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Tax Structure Before Janrsquo2016 Tax Structure Eff 1 Jan 2016
HEV-PPV le175 gkm= 23
HEV-DC le175 gkm= 10
EV tax=2
Hybrid tax divide 2
Updated on 20 June 2018
Updated on 20 June 2018
Dec 2012
for implementation
on 1 Jan 2016
9
Government activities to improve FE of new vehicles
bull Thailand vehicle excise tax structure
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
4 5 5) Suggested Price (Excise Tax Rate)
Updated on
16 September 2017
10
Fuel Efficiency Policies in the Land Transport Sector in Thailand
bull A study of the Transport and Climate Change (TCC)
Phase I
1 To collect necessary data and conduct a policy inventory related to fuel efficiency policies and measures
2 To use this policy inventory to conduct a gap analysis of what is missing for increased energy efficiency for PCs and MCs
3 To identify key issues barriers opportunities and recommendations for advancing fuel efficiency policies in Thailand
Phase II
1 To create a template for FE data collection to update the data (up to year 2017) and the policiesmeasures related to fuel efficiency and to analyse the impact of existing FE policies and to provide the recommendations for FE improvement
2 To analyse COST-BENEFIT OF FE POLICIESMEASURES implementation and model the IMPACTS OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS and create recommendationskey considerations on implementing proposed FE policiesmeasurements and improving the FE technology
3 To create common understanding and good cooperation among stakeholders including government private sector and customer groups regarding the improvement of fuel efficiency of passenger cars and motorcycles in Thailand
4 To push forward advance FE policiesmeasures to actual implementation
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Phase IPhase II (Draft)
httpswwwtransportandclimatechangeorg
11
Scenario definition of FE development 2016 2030
According on current situation nominal improvement rate GFEI Target
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
bull Current NO FE improvement
According to
GFEI Global
Target
bull BAU FE improvement of 10 annual rate
bull GFEI Target - FE improvement of 31 annual rate Projection toward
44 Lge100km at 2030
(market average for
PC amp PU) then assume FE
improvement at constant rate
of 10 annually
12
3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
Aims of ldquoCost Benefit Analysisrdquo
To analyze cost benefit of proposed
FE policymeasure implementation
To model the impacts of possible scenario and
To create recommendationskey considerations
on implementing proposed FE policymeasures
and improving the FE technology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Revise the Excise tax scheme
for new vehicles
Improve Eco-sticker
Revise Fuel tax
Annual registration tax
13
Required FE policy toward desired FE target
bull Focusing on 3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Assumption BAUAssumptions for
GFEI target scenario
Industry baseline for FC improvement rate 100 100
Impact of eco-sticker on FC improvement rate - 01
Linear slope of excise tax
[THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car 3145 4029
Pickup truck 1044 1999
Linear slope of annual
registration tax [THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car As a function of engine size 110
Pickup truck As a function of vehicle curb weight 132
Fuel tax increase () Static fuel price 20
Target 2016 2030
PC 568 366
PU 767 494
Average 681 438
14
Methodology of the COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
bull Impacts projection of FE policy by using FEPIT (Fuel Economy Policy Implementation Tool)
OUTPUT Policy intensive level Excise tax Circulation tax Fuel tax toward the desired FE target
Projection of Market share
Projection of Fuel Consumption for Passenger car amp Pickup truck
bull Determine impacts on Owner (customer) lsquos viewpoint (comparing by Net Present Value in 20 years)
By variations of Capital cost Vehicle price at factory gate (with improvement of Fuel Economydagger)
Capital cost Excise tax change
Annual registration tax change
Fuel expense decrease with FE improvement change with fuel price
Maintenance cost depended on technology (cost for EV is higher for battery replacement)
bull Determine impacts on government lsquos viewpoint (eg fuel saving CO2 reduction government income taxes)
FEPIT Tool ndash Fuel Economy Implementation Tool ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation)
daggerCost curve with FE improvement ndash mainly from ICCT
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
15
Updated FE database for new Passenger Light Duty Vehicle (PLDV)
Vehicle typesNew sale (Top 10 ranked vehicles) Weighted-average FC (Lge100 km)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 Eco car 187429 118519 87745 114095 156234 488 489 488 475 476
2 City car subcompact Sedan amp
Hatchback
271018 167522 117548 76447 86200 599 598 578 585 582
3 Compact car C-segment
Sedan Hatchback Coupe Roadster
89975 66586 40624 47820 53797 645 651 655 619 614
4 D-segment full size sedan 34363 19343 16407 12312 9118 722 733 711 725 725
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 42046 41046 50690 39417 40293 744 695 662 625 625
6 SUV and MPV 10307 10617 14332 13790 22974 883 774 759 774 748
7 PPV 58942 48646 69063 60683 59576 952 917 843 815 815
8 Single cab pickup 75024 51325 50851 48127 44485 765 766 760 740 736
9 Extra cab pickup 278019 206130 168236 176758 186727 769 770 769 740 744
10 4 doors pickup 164650 114385 107986 108602 157299 855 856 858 796 791
Sub-total vehicle ( share of
total vehicle registration)
1211773
(9325)
844119
(9328)
723482
(9088)
698051
(8602)
816703
(8879)
DLT new registers 1299508 904969 796089 811518 919820
Annual weighted-average FC 698 701 708 681 675
FC change 04 09 -38 -09
Weight Average FE of Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV) sales during 2013-2017
Ref GIZ study based on data from Department of Land Transporthttpwwwfiafoundationorgmedia45112wp11-iea-report-update-2014pdfhttpswwwglobalfueleconomyorgmedia418761wp15-ldv-comparisonpdf
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
54 59 5869 79 77
71 76 76
2013 2014 2015
16
Vehicles classification for FEPIT tool
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2016 Data
Vehicle types
Corrected data Prepared data for FEPIT input
Weighted-average FC
(Lge100 km)
Vehicle class FC range
(Lge100km)
CO2 range
(gCO2km)
Passenger car 2016 average (568)
BEV 15 357
PHEV 30 714
1 Eco car 475 HEV 53 1261
2 City car subcompact 585 ECO Car 2 lt 43 lt 1023
3 Compact car C-segment 619 Eco Car 1 43 ndash 51 1023 ndash 1213
4 D-segment full size sedan 725 Compact car 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 625 Mini-MPV B-SUV 63 ndash 84 1499 ndash 1998
6 SUV and MPV 774 SUV Full size MPV gt 84 gt 1998
Pickup based 2016 average (767)(singlespacedouble cabs amp PPV) BEV 2638 6275
PHEV 4475 10645
HEV 6313 15015
ICE1 lt 51 lt 1213
7 PPV 815 ICE2 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
8 Single cab pickup 740 ICE3 63 ndash 74 1499 ndash 1760
9 Extra cab pickup 740 ICE4 74 ndash 84 1760 ndash 1998
10 4 doors pickup 796 ICE5 gt 84 gt 1998
PLDV average 681
Exci
se ta
x st
ruct
urebull Thai excise tax rate use
different criteria between
passenger car (tougher)
and pickup truck (more
lenient)
bull Even within pickup truck
with same CO2
emissionkm excise tax
rates are different
1 lt 15 lt 2 compartments
17
FEPIT prediction of new passenger car mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Label shows average FE [Lge100km]
in that vehicle segment which
improved with FEPIT estimationProjection
Passenger car
2016 2030
Projection
568 366 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
18
FEPIT prediction of new pickup truck mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Projection
Pickup based (SingleSpaceDouble Cabs amp PPV)
2016 2030
Projection
767 494 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
7
Thailand position in the world and possibility to improve vehicle FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
8
Government activities to improve FE of new vehicles
bull Thailand vehicle excise tax structure
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Tax Structure Before Janrsquo2016 Tax Structure Eff 1 Jan 2016
HEV-PPV le175 gkm= 23
HEV-DC le175 gkm= 10
EV tax=2
Hybrid tax divide 2
Updated on 20 June 2018
Updated on 20 June 2018
Dec 2012
for implementation
on 1 Jan 2016
9
Government activities to improve FE of new vehicles
bull Thailand vehicle excise tax structure
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
4 5 5) Suggested Price (Excise Tax Rate)
Updated on
16 September 2017
10
Fuel Efficiency Policies in the Land Transport Sector in Thailand
bull A study of the Transport and Climate Change (TCC)
Phase I
1 To collect necessary data and conduct a policy inventory related to fuel efficiency policies and measures
2 To use this policy inventory to conduct a gap analysis of what is missing for increased energy efficiency for PCs and MCs
3 To identify key issues barriers opportunities and recommendations for advancing fuel efficiency policies in Thailand
Phase II
1 To create a template for FE data collection to update the data (up to year 2017) and the policiesmeasures related to fuel efficiency and to analyse the impact of existing FE policies and to provide the recommendations for FE improvement
2 To analyse COST-BENEFIT OF FE POLICIESMEASURES implementation and model the IMPACTS OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS and create recommendationskey considerations on implementing proposed FE policiesmeasurements and improving the FE technology
3 To create common understanding and good cooperation among stakeholders including government private sector and customer groups regarding the improvement of fuel efficiency of passenger cars and motorcycles in Thailand
4 To push forward advance FE policiesmeasures to actual implementation
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Phase IPhase II (Draft)
httpswwwtransportandclimatechangeorg
11
Scenario definition of FE development 2016 2030
According on current situation nominal improvement rate GFEI Target
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
bull Current NO FE improvement
According to
GFEI Global
Target
bull BAU FE improvement of 10 annual rate
bull GFEI Target - FE improvement of 31 annual rate Projection toward
44 Lge100km at 2030
(market average for
PC amp PU) then assume FE
improvement at constant rate
of 10 annually
12
3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
Aims of ldquoCost Benefit Analysisrdquo
To analyze cost benefit of proposed
FE policymeasure implementation
To model the impacts of possible scenario and
To create recommendationskey considerations
on implementing proposed FE policymeasures
and improving the FE technology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Revise the Excise tax scheme
for new vehicles
Improve Eco-sticker
Revise Fuel tax
Annual registration tax
13
Required FE policy toward desired FE target
bull Focusing on 3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Assumption BAUAssumptions for
GFEI target scenario
Industry baseline for FC improvement rate 100 100
Impact of eco-sticker on FC improvement rate - 01
Linear slope of excise tax
[THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car 3145 4029
Pickup truck 1044 1999
Linear slope of annual
registration tax [THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car As a function of engine size 110
Pickup truck As a function of vehicle curb weight 132
Fuel tax increase () Static fuel price 20
Target 2016 2030
PC 568 366
PU 767 494
Average 681 438
14
Methodology of the COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
bull Impacts projection of FE policy by using FEPIT (Fuel Economy Policy Implementation Tool)
OUTPUT Policy intensive level Excise tax Circulation tax Fuel tax toward the desired FE target
Projection of Market share
Projection of Fuel Consumption for Passenger car amp Pickup truck
bull Determine impacts on Owner (customer) lsquos viewpoint (comparing by Net Present Value in 20 years)
By variations of Capital cost Vehicle price at factory gate (with improvement of Fuel Economydagger)
Capital cost Excise tax change
Annual registration tax change
Fuel expense decrease with FE improvement change with fuel price
Maintenance cost depended on technology (cost for EV is higher for battery replacement)
bull Determine impacts on government lsquos viewpoint (eg fuel saving CO2 reduction government income taxes)
FEPIT Tool ndash Fuel Economy Implementation Tool ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation)
daggerCost curve with FE improvement ndash mainly from ICCT
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
15
Updated FE database for new Passenger Light Duty Vehicle (PLDV)
Vehicle typesNew sale (Top 10 ranked vehicles) Weighted-average FC (Lge100 km)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 Eco car 187429 118519 87745 114095 156234 488 489 488 475 476
2 City car subcompact Sedan amp
Hatchback
271018 167522 117548 76447 86200 599 598 578 585 582
3 Compact car C-segment
Sedan Hatchback Coupe Roadster
89975 66586 40624 47820 53797 645 651 655 619 614
4 D-segment full size sedan 34363 19343 16407 12312 9118 722 733 711 725 725
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 42046 41046 50690 39417 40293 744 695 662 625 625
6 SUV and MPV 10307 10617 14332 13790 22974 883 774 759 774 748
7 PPV 58942 48646 69063 60683 59576 952 917 843 815 815
8 Single cab pickup 75024 51325 50851 48127 44485 765 766 760 740 736
9 Extra cab pickup 278019 206130 168236 176758 186727 769 770 769 740 744
10 4 doors pickup 164650 114385 107986 108602 157299 855 856 858 796 791
Sub-total vehicle ( share of
total vehicle registration)
1211773
(9325)
844119
(9328)
723482
(9088)
698051
(8602)
816703
(8879)
DLT new registers 1299508 904969 796089 811518 919820
Annual weighted-average FC 698 701 708 681 675
FC change 04 09 -38 -09
Weight Average FE of Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV) sales during 2013-2017
Ref GIZ study based on data from Department of Land Transporthttpwwwfiafoundationorgmedia45112wp11-iea-report-update-2014pdfhttpswwwglobalfueleconomyorgmedia418761wp15-ldv-comparisonpdf
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
54 59 5869 79 77
71 76 76
2013 2014 2015
16
Vehicles classification for FEPIT tool
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2016 Data
Vehicle types
Corrected data Prepared data for FEPIT input
Weighted-average FC
(Lge100 km)
Vehicle class FC range
(Lge100km)
CO2 range
(gCO2km)
Passenger car 2016 average (568)
BEV 15 357
PHEV 30 714
1 Eco car 475 HEV 53 1261
2 City car subcompact 585 ECO Car 2 lt 43 lt 1023
3 Compact car C-segment 619 Eco Car 1 43 ndash 51 1023 ndash 1213
4 D-segment full size sedan 725 Compact car 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 625 Mini-MPV B-SUV 63 ndash 84 1499 ndash 1998
6 SUV and MPV 774 SUV Full size MPV gt 84 gt 1998
Pickup based 2016 average (767)(singlespacedouble cabs amp PPV) BEV 2638 6275
PHEV 4475 10645
HEV 6313 15015
ICE1 lt 51 lt 1213
7 PPV 815 ICE2 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
8 Single cab pickup 740 ICE3 63 ndash 74 1499 ndash 1760
9 Extra cab pickup 740 ICE4 74 ndash 84 1760 ndash 1998
10 4 doors pickup 796 ICE5 gt 84 gt 1998
PLDV average 681
Exci
se ta
x st
ruct
urebull Thai excise tax rate use
different criteria between
passenger car (tougher)
and pickup truck (more
lenient)
bull Even within pickup truck
with same CO2
emissionkm excise tax
rates are different
1 lt 15 lt 2 compartments
17
FEPIT prediction of new passenger car mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Label shows average FE [Lge100km]
in that vehicle segment which
improved with FEPIT estimationProjection
Passenger car
2016 2030
Projection
568 366 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
18
FEPIT prediction of new pickup truck mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Projection
Pickup based (SingleSpaceDouble Cabs amp PPV)
2016 2030
Projection
767 494 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
8
Government activities to improve FE of new vehicles
bull Thailand vehicle excise tax structure
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Tax Structure Before Janrsquo2016 Tax Structure Eff 1 Jan 2016
HEV-PPV le175 gkm= 23
HEV-DC le175 gkm= 10
EV tax=2
Hybrid tax divide 2
Updated on 20 June 2018
Updated on 20 June 2018
Dec 2012
for implementation
on 1 Jan 2016
9
Government activities to improve FE of new vehicles
bull Thailand vehicle excise tax structure
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
4 5 5) Suggested Price (Excise Tax Rate)
Updated on
16 September 2017
10
Fuel Efficiency Policies in the Land Transport Sector in Thailand
bull A study of the Transport and Climate Change (TCC)
Phase I
1 To collect necessary data and conduct a policy inventory related to fuel efficiency policies and measures
2 To use this policy inventory to conduct a gap analysis of what is missing for increased energy efficiency for PCs and MCs
3 To identify key issues barriers opportunities and recommendations for advancing fuel efficiency policies in Thailand
Phase II
1 To create a template for FE data collection to update the data (up to year 2017) and the policiesmeasures related to fuel efficiency and to analyse the impact of existing FE policies and to provide the recommendations for FE improvement
2 To analyse COST-BENEFIT OF FE POLICIESMEASURES implementation and model the IMPACTS OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS and create recommendationskey considerations on implementing proposed FE policiesmeasurements and improving the FE technology
3 To create common understanding and good cooperation among stakeholders including government private sector and customer groups regarding the improvement of fuel efficiency of passenger cars and motorcycles in Thailand
4 To push forward advance FE policiesmeasures to actual implementation
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Phase IPhase II (Draft)
httpswwwtransportandclimatechangeorg
11
Scenario definition of FE development 2016 2030
According on current situation nominal improvement rate GFEI Target
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
bull Current NO FE improvement
According to
GFEI Global
Target
bull BAU FE improvement of 10 annual rate
bull GFEI Target - FE improvement of 31 annual rate Projection toward
44 Lge100km at 2030
(market average for
PC amp PU) then assume FE
improvement at constant rate
of 10 annually
12
3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
Aims of ldquoCost Benefit Analysisrdquo
To analyze cost benefit of proposed
FE policymeasure implementation
To model the impacts of possible scenario and
To create recommendationskey considerations
on implementing proposed FE policymeasures
and improving the FE technology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Revise the Excise tax scheme
for new vehicles
Improve Eco-sticker
Revise Fuel tax
Annual registration tax
13
Required FE policy toward desired FE target
bull Focusing on 3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Assumption BAUAssumptions for
GFEI target scenario
Industry baseline for FC improvement rate 100 100
Impact of eco-sticker on FC improvement rate - 01
Linear slope of excise tax
[THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car 3145 4029
Pickup truck 1044 1999
Linear slope of annual
registration tax [THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car As a function of engine size 110
Pickup truck As a function of vehicle curb weight 132
Fuel tax increase () Static fuel price 20
Target 2016 2030
PC 568 366
PU 767 494
Average 681 438
14
Methodology of the COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
bull Impacts projection of FE policy by using FEPIT (Fuel Economy Policy Implementation Tool)
OUTPUT Policy intensive level Excise tax Circulation tax Fuel tax toward the desired FE target
Projection of Market share
Projection of Fuel Consumption for Passenger car amp Pickup truck
bull Determine impacts on Owner (customer) lsquos viewpoint (comparing by Net Present Value in 20 years)
By variations of Capital cost Vehicle price at factory gate (with improvement of Fuel Economydagger)
Capital cost Excise tax change
Annual registration tax change
Fuel expense decrease with FE improvement change with fuel price
Maintenance cost depended on technology (cost for EV is higher for battery replacement)
bull Determine impacts on government lsquos viewpoint (eg fuel saving CO2 reduction government income taxes)
FEPIT Tool ndash Fuel Economy Implementation Tool ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation)
daggerCost curve with FE improvement ndash mainly from ICCT
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
15
Updated FE database for new Passenger Light Duty Vehicle (PLDV)
Vehicle typesNew sale (Top 10 ranked vehicles) Weighted-average FC (Lge100 km)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 Eco car 187429 118519 87745 114095 156234 488 489 488 475 476
2 City car subcompact Sedan amp
Hatchback
271018 167522 117548 76447 86200 599 598 578 585 582
3 Compact car C-segment
Sedan Hatchback Coupe Roadster
89975 66586 40624 47820 53797 645 651 655 619 614
4 D-segment full size sedan 34363 19343 16407 12312 9118 722 733 711 725 725
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 42046 41046 50690 39417 40293 744 695 662 625 625
6 SUV and MPV 10307 10617 14332 13790 22974 883 774 759 774 748
7 PPV 58942 48646 69063 60683 59576 952 917 843 815 815
8 Single cab pickup 75024 51325 50851 48127 44485 765 766 760 740 736
9 Extra cab pickup 278019 206130 168236 176758 186727 769 770 769 740 744
10 4 doors pickup 164650 114385 107986 108602 157299 855 856 858 796 791
Sub-total vehicle ( share of
total vehicle registration)
1211773
(9325)
844119
(9328)
723482
(9088)
698051
(8602)
816703
(8879)
DLT new registers 1299508 904969 796089 811518 919820
Annual weighted-average FC 698 701 708 681 675
FC change 04 09 -38 -09
Weight Average FE of Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV) sales during 2013-2017
Ref GIZ study based on data from Department of Land Transporthttpwwwfiafoundationorgmedia45112wp11-iea-report-update-2014pdfhttpswwwglobalfueleconomyorgmedia418761wp15-ldv-comparisonpdf
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
54 59 5869 79 77
71 76 76
2013 2014 2015
16
Vehicles classification for FEPIT tool
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2016 Data
Vehicle types
Corrected data Prepared data for FEPIT input
Weighted-average FC
(Lge100 km)
Vehicle class FC range
(Lge100km)
CO2 range
(gCO2km)
Passenger car 2016 average (568)
BEV 15 357
PHEV 30 714
1 Eco car 475 HEV 53 1261
2 City car subcompact 585 ECO Car 2 lt 43 lt 1023
3 Compact car C-segment 619 Eco Car 1 43 ndash 51 1023 ndash 1213
4 D-segment full size sedan 725 Compact car 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 625 Mini-MPV B-SUV 63 ndash 84 1499 ndash 1998
6 SUV and MPV 774 SUV Full size MPV gt 84 gt 1998
Pickup based 2016 average (767)(singlespacedouble cabs amp PPV) BEV 2638 6275
PHEV 4475 10645
HEV 6313 15015
ICE1 lt 51 lt 1213
7 PPV 815 ICE2 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
8 Single cab pickup 740 ICE3 63 ndash 74 1499 ndash 1760
9 Extra cab pickup 740 ICE4 74 ndash 84 1760 ndash 1998
10 4 doors pickup 796 ICE5 gt 84 gt 1998
PLDV average 681
Exci
se ta
x st
ruct
urebull Thai excise tax rate use
different criteria between
passenger car (tougher)
and pickup truck (more
lenient)
bull Even within pickup truck
with same CO2
emissionkm excise tax
rates are different
1 lt 15 lt 2 compartments
17
FEPIT prediction of new passenger car mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Label shows average FE [Lge100km]
in that vehicle segment which
improved with FEPIT estimationProjection
Passenger car
2016 2030
Projection
568 366 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
18
FEPIT prediction of new pickup truck mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Projection
Pickup based (SingleSpaceDouble Cabs amp PPV)
2016 2030
Projection
767 494 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
9
Government activities to improve FE of new vehicles
bull Thailand vehicle excise tax structure
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
4 5 5) Suggested Price (Excise Tax Rate)
Updated on
16 September 2017
10
Fuel Efficiency Policies in the Land Transport Sector in Thailand
bull A study of the Transport and Climate Change (TCC)
Phase I
1 To collect necessary data and conduct a policy inventory related to fuel efficiency policies and measures
2 To use this policy inventory to conduct a gap analysis of what is missing for increased energy efficiency for PCs and MCs
3 To identify key issues barriers opportunities and recommendations for advancing fuel efficiency policies in Thailand
Phase II
1 To create a template for FE data collection to update the data (up to year 2017) and the policiesmeasures related to fuel efficiency and to analyse the impact of existing FE policies and to provide the recommendations for FE improvement
2 To analyse COST-BENEFIT OF FE POLICIESMEASURES implementation and model the IMPACTS OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS and create recommendationskey considerations on implementing proposed FE policiesmeasurements and improving the FE technology
3 To create common understanding and good cooperation among stakeholders including government private sector and customer groups regarding the improvement of fuel efficiency of passenger cars and motorcycles in Thailand
4 To push forward advance FE policiesmeasures to actual implementation
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Phase IPhase II (Draft)
httpswwwtransportandclimatechangeorg
11
Scenario definition of FE development 2016 2030
According on current situation nominal improvement rate GFEI Target
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
bull Current NO FE improvement
According to
GFEI Global
Target
bull BAU FE improvement of 10 annual rate
bull GFEI Target - FE improvement of 31 annual rate Projection toward
44 Lge100km at 2030
(market average for
PC amp PU) then assume FE
improvement at constant rate
of 10 annually
12
3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
Aims of ldquoCost Benefit Analysisrdquo
To analyze cost benefit of proposed
FE policymeasure implementation
To model the impacts of possible scenario and
To create recommendationskey considerations
on implementing proposed FE policymeasures
and improving the FE technology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Revise the Excise tax scheme
for new vehicles
Improve Eco-sticker
Revise Fuel tax
Annual registration tax
13
Required FE policy toward desired FE target
bull Focusing on 3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Assumption BAUAssumptions for
GFEI target scenario
Industry baseline for FC improvement rate 100 100
Impact of eco-sticker on FC improvement rate - 01
Linear slope of excise tax
[THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car 3145 4029
Pickup truck 1044 1999
Linear slope of annual
registration tax [THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car As a function of engine size 110
Pickup truck As a function of vehicle curb weight 132
Fuel tax increase () Static fuel price 20
Target 2016 2030
PC 568 366
PU 767 494
Average 681 438
14
Methodology of the COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
bull Impacts projection of FE policy by using FEPIT (Fuel Economy Policy Implementation Tool)
OUTPUT Policy intensive level Excise tax Circulation tax Fuel tax toward the desired FE target
Projection of Market share
Projection of Fuel Consumption for Passenger car amp Pickup truck
bull Determine impacts on Owner (customer) lsquos viewpoint (comparing by Net Present Value in 20 years)
By variations of Capital cost Vehicle price at factory gate (with improvement of Fuel Economydagger)
Capital cost Excise tax change
Annual registration tax change
Fuel expense decrease with FE improvement change with fuel price
Maintenance cost depended on technology (cost for EV is higher for battery replacement)
bull Determine impacts on government lsquos viewpoint (eg fuel saving CO2 reduction government income taxes)
FEPIT Tool ndash Fuel Economy Implementation Tool ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation)
daggerCost curve with FE improvement ndash mainly from ICCT
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
15
Updated FE database for new Passenger Light Duty Vehicle (PLDV)
Vehicle typesNew sale (Top 10 ranked vehicles) Weighted-average FC (Lge100 km)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 Eco car 187429 118519 87745 114095 156234 488 489 488 475 476
2 City car subcompact Sedan amp
Hatchback
271018 167522 117548 76447 86200 599 598 578 585 582
3 Compact car C-segment
Sedan Hatchback Coupe Roadster
89975 66586 40624 47820 53797 645 651 655 619 614
4 D-segment full size sedan 34363 19343 16407 12312 9118 722 733 711 725 725
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 42046 41046 50690 39417 40293 744 695 662 625 625
6 SUV and MPV 10307 10617 14332 13790 22974 883 774 759 774 748
7 PPV 58942 48646 69063 60683 59576 952 917 843 815 815
8 Single cab pickup 75024 51325 50851 48127 44485 765 766 760 740 736
9 Extra cab pickup 278019 206130 168236 176758 186727 769 770 769 740 744
10 4 doors pickup 164650 114385 107986 108602 157299 855 856 858 796 791
Sub-total vehicle ( share of
total vehicle registration)
1211773
(9325)
844119
(9328)
723482
(9088)
698051
(8602)
816703
(8879)
DLT new registers 1299508 904969 796089 811518 919820
Annual weighted-average FC 698 701 708 681 675
FC change 04 09 -38 -09
Weight Average FE of Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV) sales during 2013-2017
Ref GIZ study based on data from Department of Land Transporthttpwwwfiafoundationorgmedia45112wp11-iea-report-update-2014pdfhttpswwwglobalfueleconomyorgmedia418761wp15-ldv-comparisonpdf
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
54 59 5869 79 77
71 76 76
2013 2014 2015
16
Vehicles classification for FEPIT tool
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2016 Data
Vehicle types
Corrected data Prepared data for FEPIT input
Weighted-average FC
(Lge100 km)
Vehicle class FC range
(Lge100km)
CO2 range
(gCO2km)
Passenger car 2016 average (568)
BEV 15 357
PHEV 30 714
1 Eco car 475 HEV 53 1261
2 City car subcompact 585 ECO Car 2 lt 43 lt 1023
3 Compact car C-segment 619 Eco Car 1 43 ndash 51 1023 ndash 1213
4 D-segment full size sedan 725 Compact car 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 625 Mini-MPV B-SUV 63 ndash 84 1499 ndash 1998
6 SUV and MPV 774 SUV Full size MPV gt 84 gt 1998
Pickup based 2016 average (767)(singlespacedouble cabs amp PPV) BEV 2638 6275
PHEV 4475 10645
HEV 6313 15015
ICE1 lt 51 lt 1213
7 PPV 815 ICE2 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
8 Single cab pickup 740 ICE3 63 ndash 74 1499 ndash 1760
9 Extra cab pickup 740 ICE4 74 ndash 84 1760 ndash 1998
10 4 doors pickup 796 ICE5 gt 84 gt 1998
PLDV average 681
Exci
se ta
x st
ruct
urebull Thai excise tax rate use
different criteria between
passenger car (tougher)
and pickup truck (more
lenient)
bull Even within pickup truck
with same CO2
emissionkm excise tax
rates are different
1 lt 15 lt 2 compartments
17
FEPIT prediction of new passenger car mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Label shows average FE [Lge100km]
in that vehicle segment which
improved with FEPIT estimationProjection
Passenger car
2016 2030
Projection
568 366 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
18
FEPIT prediction of new pickup truck mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Projection
Pickup based (SingleSpaceDouble Cabs amp PPV)
2016 2030
Projection
767 494 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
10
Fuel Efficiency Policies in the Land Transport Sector in Thailand
bull A study of the Transport and Climate Change (TCC)
Phase I
1 To collect necessary data and conduct a policy inventory related to fuel efficiency policies and measures
2 To use this policy inventory to conduct a gap analysis of what is missing for increased energy efficiency for PCs and MCs
3 To identify key issues barriers opportunities and recommendations for advancing fuel efficiency policies in Thailand
Phase II
1 To create a template for FE data collection to update the data (up to year 2017) and the policiesmeasures related to fuel efficiency and to analyse the impact of existing FE policies and to provide the recommendations for FE improvement
2 To analyse COST-BENEFIT OF FE POLICIESMEASURES implementation and model the IMPACTS OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS and create recommendationskey considerations on implementing proposed FE policiesmeasurements and improving the FE technology
3 To create common understanding and good cooperation among stakeholders including government private sector and customer groups regarding the improvement of fuel efficiency of passenger cars and motorcycles in Thailand
4 To push forward advance FE policiesmeasures to actual implementation
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Phase IPhase II (Draft)
httpswwwtransportandclimatechangeorg
11
Scenario definition of FE development 2016 2030
According on current situation nominal improvement rate GFEI Target
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
bull Current NO FE improvement
According to
GFEI Global
Target
bull BAU FE improvement of 10 annual rate
bull GFEI Target - FE improvement of 31 annual rate Projection toward
44 Lge100km at 2030
(market average for
PC amp PU) then assume FE
improvement at constant rate
of 10 annually
12
3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
Aims of ldquoCost Benefit Analysisrdquo
To analyze cost benefit of proposed
FE policymeasure implementation
To model the impacts of possible scenario and
To create recommendationskey considerations
on implementing proposed FE policymeasures
and improving the FE technology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Revise the Excise tax scheme
for new vehicles
Improve Eco-sticker
Revise Fuel tax
Annual registration tax
13
Required FE policy toward desired FE target
bull Focusing on 3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Assumption BAUAssumptions for
GFEI target scenario
Industry baseline for FC improvement rate 100 100
Impact of eco-sticker on FC improvement rate - 01
Linear slope of excise tax
[THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car 3145 4029
Pickup truck 1044 1999
Linear slope of annual
registration tax [THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car As a function of engine size 110
Pickup truck As a function of vehicle curb weight 132
Fuel tax increase () Static fuel price 20
Target 2016 2030
PC 568 366
PU 767 494
Average 681 438
14
Methodology of the COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
bull Impacts projection of FE policy by using FEPIT (Fuel Economy Policy Implementation Tool)
OUTPUT Policy intensive level Excise tax Circulation tax Fuel tax toward the desired FE target
Projection of Market share
Projection of Fuel Consumption for Passenger car amp Pickup truck
bull Determine impacts on Owner (customer) lsquos viewpoint (comparing by Net Present Value in 20 years)
By variations of Capital cost Vehicle price at factory gate (with improvement of Fuel Economydagger)
Capital cost Excise tax change
Annual registration tax change
Fuel expense decrease with FE improvement change with fuel price
Maintenance cost depended on technology (cost for EV is higher for battery replacement)
bull Determine impacts on government lsquos viewpoint (eg fuel saving CO2 reduction government income taxes)
FEPIT Tool ndash Fuel Economy Implementation Tool ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation)
daggerCost curve with FE improvement ndash mainly from ICCT
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
15
Updated FE database for new Passenger Light Duty Vehicle (PLDV)
Vehicle typesNew sale (Top 10 ranked vehicles) Weighted-average FC (Lge100 km)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 Eco car 187429 118519 87745 114095 156234 488 489 488 475 476
2 City car subcompact Sedan amp
Hatchback
271018 167522 117548 76447 86200 599 598 578 585 582
3 Compact car C-segment
Sedan Hatchback Coupe Roadster
89975 66586 40624 47820 53797 645 651 655 619 614
4 D-segment full size sedan 34363 19343 16407 12312 9118 722 733 711 725 725
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 42046 41046 50690 39417 40293 744 695 662 625 625
6 SUV and MPV 10307 10617 14332 13790 22974 883 774 759 774 748
7 PPV 58942 48646 69063 60683 59576 952 917 843 815 815
8 Single cab pickup 75024 51325 50851 48127 44485 765 766 760 740 736
9 Extra cab pickup 278019 206130 168236 176758 186727 769 770 769 740 744
10 4 doors pickup 164650 114385 107986 108602 157299 855 856 858 796 791
Sub-total vehicle ( share of
total vehicle registration)
1211773
(9325)
844119
(9328)
723482
(9088)
698051
(8602)
816703
(8879)
DLT new registers 1299508 904969 796089 811518 919820
Annual weighted-average FC 698 701 708 681 675
FC change 04 09 -38 -09
Weight Average FE of Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV) sales during 2013-2017
Ref GIZ study based on data from Department of Land Transporthttpwwwfiafoundationorgmedia45112wp11-iea-report-update-2014pdfhttpswwwglobalfueleconomyorgmedia418761wp15-ldv-comparisonpdf
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
54 59 5869 79 77
71 76 76
2013 2014 2015
16
Vehicles classification for FEPIT tool
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2016 Data
Vehicle types
Corrected data Prepared data for FEPIT input
Weighted-average FC
(Lge100 km)
Vehicle class FC range
(Lge100km)
CO2 range
(gCO2km)
Passenger car 2016 average (568)
BEV 15 357
PHEV 30 714
1 Eco car 475 HEV 53 1261
2 City car subcompact 585 ECO Car 2 lt 43 lt 1023
3 Compact car C-segment 619 Eco Car 1 43 ndash 51 1023 ndash 1213
4 D-segment full size sedan 725 Compact car 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 625 Mini-MPV B-SUV 63 ndash 84 1499 ndash 1998
6 SUV and MPV 774 SUV Full size MPV gt 84 gt 1998
Pickup based 2016 average (767)(singlespacedouble cabs amp PPV) BEV 2638 6275
PHEV 4475 10645
HEV 6313 15015
ICE1 lt 51 lt 1213
7 PPV 815 ICE2 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
8 Single cab pickup 740 ICE3 63 ndash 74 1499 ndash 1760
9 Extra cab pickup 740 ICE4 74 ndash 84 1760 ndash 1998
10 4 doors pickup 796 ICE5 gt 84 gt 1998
PLDV average 681
Exci
se ta
x st
ruct
urebull Thai excise tax rate use
different criteria between
passenger car (tougher)
and pickup truck (more
lenient)
bull Even within pickup truck
with same CO2
emissionkm excise tax
rates are different
1 lt 15 lt 2 compartments
17
FEPIT prediction of new passenger car mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Label shows average FE [Lge100km]
in that vehicle segment which
improved with FEPIT estimationProjection
Passenger car
2016 2030
Projection
568 366 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
18
FEPIT prediction of new pickup truck mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Projection
Pickup based (SingleSpaceDouble Cabs amp PPV)
2016 2030
Projection
767 494 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
11
Scenario definition of FE development 2016 2030
According on current situation nominal improvement rate GFEI Target
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
bull Current NO FE improvement
According to
GFEI Global
Target
bull BAU FE improvement of 10 annual rate
bull GFEI Target - FE improvement of 31 annual rate Projection toward
44 Lge100km at 2030
(market average for
PC amp PU) then assume FE
improvement at constant rate
of 10 annually
12
3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
Aims of ldquoCost Benefit Analysisrdquo
To analyze cost benefit of proposed
FE policymeasure implementation
To model the impacts of possible scenario and
To create recommendationskey considerations
on implementing proposed FE policymeasures
and improving the FE technology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Revise the Excise tax scheme
for new vehicles
Improve Eco-sticker
Revise Fuel tax
Annual registration tax
13
Required FE policy toward desired FE target
bull Focusing on 3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Assumption BAUAssumptions for
GFEI target scenario
Industry baseline for FC improvement rate 100 100
Impact of eco-sticker on FC improvement rate - 01
Linear slope of excise tax
[THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car 3145 4029
Pickup truck 1044 1999
Linear slope of annual
registration tax [THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car As a function of engine size 110
Pickup truck As a function of vehicle curb weight 132
Fuel tax increase () Static fuel price 20
Target 2016 2030
PC 568 366
PU 767 494
Average 681 438
14
Methodology of the COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
bull Impacts projection of FE policy by using FEPIT (Fuel Economy Policy Implementation Tool)
OUTPUT Policy intensive level Excise tax Circulation tax Fuel tax toward the desired FE target
Projection of Market share
Projection of Fuel Consumption for Passenger car amp Pickup truck
bull Determine impacts on Owner (customer) lsquos viewpoint (comparing by Net Present Value in 20 years)
By variations of Capital cost Vehicle price at factory gate (with improvement of Fuel Economydagger)
Capital cost Excise tax change
Annual registration tax change
Fuel expense decrease with FE improvement change with fuel price
Maintenance cost depended on technology (cost for EV is higher for battery replacement)
bull Determine impacts on government lsquos viewpoint (eg fuel saving CO2 reduction government income taxes)
FEPIT Tool ndash Fuel Economy Implementation Tool ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation)
daggerCost curve with FE improvement ndash mainly from ICCT
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
15
Updated FE database for new Passenger Light Duty Vehicle (PLDV)
Vehicle typesNew sale (Top 10 ranked vehicles) Weighted-average FC (Lge100 km)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 Eco car 187429 118519 87745 114095 156234 488 489 488 475 476
2 City car subcompact Sedan amp
Hatchback
271018 167522 117548 76447 86200 599 598 578 585 582
3 Compact car C-segment
Sedan Hatchback Coupe Roadster
89975 66586 40624 47820 53797 645 651 655 619 614
4 D-segment full size sedan 34363 19343 16407 12312 9118 722 733 711 725 725
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 42046 41046 50690 39417 40293 744 695 662 625 625
6 SUV and MPV 10307 10617 14332 13790 22974 883 774 759 774 748
7 PPV 58942 48646 69063 60683 59576 952 917 843 815 815
8 Single cab pickup 75024 51325 50851 48127 44485 765 766 760 740 736
9 Extra cab pickup 278019 206130 168236 176758 186727 769 770 769 740 744
10 4 doors pickup 164650 114385 107986 108602 157299 855 856 858 796 791
Sub-total vehicle ( share of
total vehicle registration)
1211773
(9325)
844119
(9328)
723482
(9088)
698051
(8602)
816703
(8879)
DLT new registers 1299508 904969 796089 811518 919820
Annual weighted-average FC 698 701 708 681 675
FC change 04 09 -38 -09
Weight Average FE of Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV) sales during 2013-2017
Ref GIZ study based on data from Department of Land Transporthttpwwwfiafoundationorgmedia45112wp11-iea-report-update-2014pdfhttpswwwglobalfueleconomyorgmedia418761wp15-ldv-comparisonpdf
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
54 59 5869 79 77
71 76 76
2013 2014 2015
16
Vehicles classification for FEPIT tool
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2016 Data
Vehicle types
Corrected data Prepared data for FEPIT input
Weighted-average FC
(Lge100 km)
Vehicle class FC range
(Lge100km)
CO2 range
(gCO2km)
Passenger car 2016 average (568)
BEV 15 357
PHEV 30 714
1 Eco car 475 HEV 53 1261
2 City car subcompact 585 ECO Car 2 lt 43 lt 1023
3 Compact car C-segment 619 Eco Car 1 43 ndash 51 1023 ndash 1213
4 D-segment full size sedan 725 Compact car 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 625 Mini-MPV B-SUV 63 ndash 84 1499 ndash 1998
6 SUV and MPV 774 SUV Full size MPV gt 84 gt 1998
Pickup based 2016 average (767)(singlespacedouble cabs amp PPV) BEV 2638 6275
PHEV 4475 10645
HEV 6313 15015
ICE1 lt 51 lt 1213
7 PPV 815 ICE2 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
8 Single cab pickup 740 ICE3 63 ndash 74 1499 ndash 1760
9 Extra cab pickup 740 ICE4 74 ndash 84 1760 ndash 1998
10 4 doors pickup 796 ICE5 gt 84 gt 1998
PLDV average 681
Exci
se ta
x st
ruct
urebull Thai excise tax rate use
different criteria between
passenger car (tougher)
and pickup truck (more
lenient)
bull Even within pickup truck
with same CO2
emissionkm excise tax
rates are different
1 lt 15 lt 2 compartments
17
FEPIT prediction of new passenger car mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Label shows average FE [Lge100km]
in that vehicle segment which
improved with FEPIT estimationProjection
Passenger car
2016 2030
Projection
568 366 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
18
FEPIT prediction of new pickup truck mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Projection
Pickup based (SingleSpaceDouble Cabs amp PPV)
2016 2030
Projection
767 494 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
12
3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
Aims of ldquoCost Benefit Analysisrdquo
To analyze cost benefit of proposed
FE policymeasure implementation
To model the impacts of possible scenario and
To create recommendationskey considerations
on implementing proposed FE policymeasures
and improving the FE technology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Revise the Excise tax scheme
for new vehicles
Improve Eco-sticker
Revise Fuel tax
Annual registration tax
13
Required FE policy toward desired FE target
bull Focusing on 3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Assumption BAUAssumptions for
GFEI target scenario
Industry baseline for FC improvement rate 100 100
Impact of eco-sticker on FC improvement rate - 01
Linear slope of excise tax
[THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car 3145 4029
Pickup truck 1044 1999
Linear slope of annual
registration tax [THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car As a function of engine size 110
Pickup truck As a function of vehicle curb weight 132
Fuel tax increase () Static fuel price 20
Target 2016 2030
PC 568 366
PU 767 494
Average 681 438
14
Methodology of the COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
bull Impacts projection of FE policy by using FEPIT (Fuel Economy Policy Implementation Tool)
OUTPUT Policy intensive level Excise tax Circulation tax Fuel tax toward the desired FE target
Projection of Market share
Projection of Fuel Consumption for Passenger car amp Pickup truck
bull Determine impacts on Owner (customer) lsquos viewpoint (comparing by Net Present Value in 20 years)
By variations of Capital cost Vehicle price at factory gate (with improvement of Fuel Economydagger)
Capital cost Excise tax change
Annual registration tax change
Fuel expense decrease with FE improvement change with fuel price
Maintenance cost depended on technology (cost for EV is higher for battery replacement)
bull Determine impacts on government lsquos viewpoint (eg fuel saving CO2 reduction government income taxes)
FEPIT Tool ndash Fuel Economy Implementation Tool ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation)
daggerCost curve with FE improvement ndash mainly from ICCT
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
15
Updated FE database for new Passenger Light Duty Vehicle (PLDV)
Vehicle typesNew sale (Top 10 ranked vehicles) Weighted-average FC (Lge100 km)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 Eco car 187429 118519 87745 114095 156234 488 489 488 475 476
2 City car subcompact Sedan amp
Hatchback
271018 167522 117548 76447 86200 599 598 578 585 582
3 Compact car C-segment
Sedan Hatchback Coupe Roadster
89975 66586 40624 47820 53797 645 651 655 619 614
4 D-segment full size sedan 34363 19343 16407 12312 9118 722 733 711 725 725
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 42046 41046 50690 39417 40293 744 695 662 625 625
6 SUV and MPV 10307 10617 14332 13790 22974 883 774 759 774 748
7 PPV 58942 48646 69063 60683 59576 952 917 843 815 815
8 Single cab pickup 75024 51325 50851 48127 44485 765 766 760 740 736
9 Extra cab pickup 278019 206130 168236 176758 186727 769 770 769 740 744
10 4 doors pickup 164650 114385 107986 108602 157299 855 856 858 796 791
Sub-total vehicle ( share of
total vehicle registration)
1211773
(9325)
844119
(9328)
723482
(9088)
698051
(8602)
816703
(8879)
DLT new registers 1299508 904969 796089 811518 919820
Annual weighted-average FC 698 701 708 681 675
FC change 04 09 -38 -09
Weight Average FE of Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV) sales during 2013-2017
Ref GIZ study based on data from Department of Land Transporthttpwwwfiafoundationorgmedia45112wp11-iea-report-update-2014pdfhttpswwwglobalfueleconomyorgmedia418761wp15-ldv-comparisonpdf
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
54 59 5869 79 77
71 76 76
2013 2014 2015
16
Vehicles classification for FEPIT tool
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2016 Data
Vehicle types
Corrected data Prepared data for FEPIT input
Weighted-average FC
(Lge100 km)
Vehicle class FC range
(Lge100km)
CO2 range
(gCO2km)
Passenger car 2016 average (568)
BEV 15 357
PHEV 30 714
1 Eco car 475 HEV 53 1261
2 City car subcompact 585 ECO Car 2 lt 43 lt 1023
3 Compact car C-segment 619 Eco Car 1 43 ndash 51 1023 ndash 1213
4 D-segment full size sedan 725 Compact car 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 625 Mini-MPV B-SUV 63 ndash 84 1499 ndash 1998
6 SUV and MPV 774 SUV Full size MPV gt 84 gt 1998
Pickup based 2016 average (767)(singlespacedouble cabs amp PPV) BEV 2638 6275
PHEV 4475 10645
HEV 6313 15015
ICE1 lt 51 lt 1213
7 PPV 815 ICE2 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
8 Single cab pickup 740 ICE3 63 ndash 74 1499 ndash 1760
9 Extra cab pickup 740 ICE4 74 ndash 84 1760 ndash 1998
10 4 doors pickup 796 ICE5 gt 84 gt 1998
PLDV average 681
Exci
se ta
x st
ruct
urebull Thai excise tax rate use
different criteria between
passenger car (tougher)
and pickup truck (more
lenient)
bull Even within pickup truck
with same CO2
emissionkm excise tax
rates are different
1 lt 15 lt 2 compartments
17
FEPIT prediction of new passenger car mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Label shows average FE [Lge100km]
in that vehicle segment which
improved with FEPIT estimationProjection
Passenger car
2016 2030
Projection
568 366 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
18
FEPIT prediction of new pickup truck mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Projection
Pickup based (SingleSpaceDouble Cabs amp PPV)
2016 2030
Projection
767 494 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
13
Required FE policy toward desired FE target
bull Focusing on 3 Proposals of Fuel Economy Improvement measures
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Assumption BAUAssumptions for
GFEI target scenario
Industry baseline for FC improvement rate 100 100
Impact of eco-sticker on FC improvement rate - 01
Linear slope of excise tax
[THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car 3145 4029
Pickup truck 1044 1999
Linear slope of annual
registration tax [THB(gCO2km)]
Passenger car As a function of engine size 110
Pickup truck As a function of vehicle curb weight 132
Fuel tax increase () Static fuel price 20
Target 2016 2030
PC 568 366
PU 767 494
Average 681 438
14
Methodology of the COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
bull Impacts projection of FE policy by using FEPIT (Fuel Economy Policy Implementation Tool)
OUTPUT Policy intensive level Excise tax Circulation tax Fuel tax toward the desired FE target
Projection of Market share
Projection of Fuel Consumption for Passenger car amp Pickup truck
bull Determine impacts on Owner (customer) lsquos viewpoint (comparing by Net Present Value in 20 years)
By variations of Capital cost Vehicle price at factory gate (with improvement of Fuel Economydagger)
Capital cost Excise tax change
Annual registration tax change
Fuel expense decrease with FE improvement change with fuel price
Maintenance cost depended on technology (cost for EV is higher for battery replacement)
bull Determine impacts on government lsquos viewpoint (eg fuel saving CO2 reduction government income taxes)
FEPIT Tool ndash Fuel Economy Implementation Tool ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation)
daggerCost curve with FE improvement ndash mainly from ICCT
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
15
Updated FE database for new Passenger Light Duty Vehicle (PLDV)
Vehicle typesNew sale (Top 10 ranked vehicles) Weighted-average FC (Lge100 km)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 Eco car 187429 118519 87745 114095 156234 488 489 488 475 476
2 City car subcompact Sedan amp
Hatchback
271018 167522 117548 76447 86200 599 598 578 585 582
3 Compact car C-segment
Sedan Hatchback Coupe Roadster
89975 66586 40624 47820 53797 645 651 655 619 614
4 D-segment full size sedan 34363 19343 16407 12312 9118 722 733 711 725 725
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 42046 41046 50690 39417 40293 744 695 662 625 625
6 SUV and MPV 10307 10617 14332 13790 22974 883 774 759 774 748
7 PPV 58942 48646 69063 60683 59576 952 917 843 815 815
8 Single cab pickup 75024 51325 50851 48127 44485 765 766 760 740 736
9 Extra cab pickup 278019 206130 168236 176758 186727 769 770 769 740 744
10 4 doors pickup 164650 114385 107986 108602 157299 855 856 858 796 791
Sub-total vehicle ( share of
total vehicle registration)
1211773
(9325)
844119
(9328)
723482
(9088)
698051
(8602)
816703
(8879)
DLT new registers 1299508 904969 796089 811518 919820
Annual weighted-average FC 698 701 708 681 675
FC change 04 09 -38 -09
Weight Average FE of Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV) sales during 2013-2017
Ref GIZ study based on data from Department of Land Transporthttpwwwfiafoundationorgmedia45112wp11-iea-report-update-2014pdfhttpswwwglobalfueleconomyorgmedia418761wp15-ldv-comparisonpdf
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
54 59 5869 79 77
71 76 76
2013 2014 2015
16
Vehicles classification for FEPIT tool
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2016 Data
Vehicle types
Corrected data Prepared data for FEPIT input
Weighted-average FC
(Lge100 km)
Vehicle class FC range
(Lge100km)
CO2 range
(gCO2km)
Passenger car 2016 average (568)
BEV 15 357
PHEV 30 714
1 Eco car 475 HEV 53 1261
2 City car subcompact 585 ECO Car 2 lt 43 lt 1023
3 Compact car C-segment 619 Eco Car 1 43 ndash 51 1023 ndash 1213
4 D-segment full size sedan 725 Compact car 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 625 Mini-MPV B-SUV 63 ndash 84 1499 ndash 1998
6 SUV and MPV 774 SUV Full size MPV gt 84 gt 1998
Pickup based 2016 average (767)(singlespacedouble cabs amp PPV) BEV 2638 6275
PHEV 4475 10645
HEV 6313 15015
ICE1 lt 51 lt 1213
7 PPV 815 ICE2 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
8 Single cab pickup 740 ICE3 63 ndash 74 1499 ndash 1760
9 Extra cab pickup 740 ICE4 74 ndash 84 1760 ndash 1998
10 4 doors pickup 796 ICE5 gt 84 gt 1998
PLDV average 681
Exci
se ta
x st
ruct
urebull Thai excise tax rate use
different criteria between
passenger car (tougher)
and pickup truck (more
lenient)
bull Even within pickup truck
with same CO2
emissionkm excise tax
rates are different
1 lt 15 lt 2 compartments
17
FEPIT prediction of new passenger car mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Label shows average FE [Lge100km]
in that vehicle segment which
improved with FEPIT estimationProjection
Passenger car
2016 2030
Projection
568 366 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
18
FEPIT prediction of new pickup truck mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Projection
Pickup based (SingleSpaceDouble Cabs amp PPV)
2016 2030
Projection
767 494 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
14
Methodology of the COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
bull Impacts projection of FE policy by using FEPIT (Fuel Economy Policy Implementation Tool)
OUTPUT Policy intensive level Excise tax Circulation tax Fuel tax toward the desired FE target
Projection of Market share
Projection of Fuel Consumption for Passenger car amp Pickup truck
bull Determine impacts on Owner (customer) lsquos viewpoint (comparing by Net Present Value in 20 years)
By variations of Capital cost Vehicle price at factory gate (with improvement of Fuel Economydagger)
Capital cost Excise tax change
Annual registration tax change
Fuel expense decrease with FE improvement change with fuel price
Maintenance cost depended on technology (cost for EV is higher for battery replacement)
bull Determine impacts on government lsquos viewpoint (eg fuel saving CO2 reduction government income taxes)
FEPIT Tool ndash Fuel Economy Implementation Tool ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation)
daggerCost curve with FE improvement ndash mainly from ICCT
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
15
Updated FE database for new Passenger Light Duty Vehicle (PLDV)
Vehicle typesNew sale (Top 10 ranked vehicles) Weighted-average FC (Lge100 km)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 Eco car 187429 118519 87745 114095 156234 488 489 488 475 476
2 City car subcompact Sedan amp
Hatchback
271018 167522 117548 76447 86200 599 598 578 585 582
3 Compact car C-segment
Sedan Hatchback Coupe Roadster
89975 66586 40624 47820 53797 645 651 655 619 614
4 D-segment full size sedan 34363 19343 16407 12312 9118 722 733 711 725 725
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 42046 41046 50690 39417 40293 744 695 662 625 625
6 SUV and MPV 10307 10617 14332 13790 22974 883 774 759 774 748
7 PPV 58942 48646 69063 60683 59576 952 917 843 815 815
8 Single cab pickup 75024 51325 50851 48127 44485 765 766 760 740 736
9 Extra cab pickup 278019 206130 168236 176758 186727 769 770 769 740 744
10 4 doors pickup 164650 114385 107986 108602 157299 855 856 858 796 791
Sub-total vehicle ( share of
total vehicle registration)
1211773
(9325)
844119
(9328)
723482
(9088)
698051
(8602)
816703
(8879)
DLT new registers 1299508 904969 796089 811518 919820
Annual weighted-average FC 698 701 708 681 675
FC change 04 09 -38 -09
Weight Average FE of Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV) sales during 2013-2017
Ref GIZ study based on data from Department of Land Transporthttpwwwfiafoundationorgmedia45112wp11-iea-report-update-2014pdfhttpswwwglobalfueleconomyorgmedia418761wp15-ldv-comparisonpdf
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
54 59 5869 79 77
71 76 76
2013 2014 2015
16
Vehicles classification for FEPIT tool
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2016 Data
Vehicle types
Corrected data Prepared data for FEPIT input
Weighted-average FC
(Lge100 km)
Vehicle class FC range
(Lge100km)
CO2 range
(gCO2km)
Passenger car 2016 average (568)
BEV 15 357
PHEV 30 714
1 Eco car 475 HEV 53 1261
2 City car subcompact 585 ECO Car 2 lt 43 lt 1023
3 Compact car C-segment 619 Eco Car 1 43 ndash 51 1023 ndash 1213
4 D-segment full size sedan 725 Compact car 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 625 Mini-MPV B-SUV 63 ndash 84 1499 ndash 1998
6 SUV and MPV 774 SUV Full size MPV gt 84 gt 1998
Pickup based 2016 average (767)(singlespacedouble cabs amp PPV) BEV 2638 6275
PHEV 4475 10645
HEV 6313 15015
ICE1 lt 51 lt 1213
7 PPV 815 ICE2 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
8 Single cab pickup 740 ICE3 63 ndash 74 1499 ndash 1760
9 Extra cab pickup 740 ICE4 74 ndash 84 1760 ndash 1998
10 4 doors pickup 796 ICE5 gt 84 gt 1998
PLDV average 681
Exci
se ta
x st
ruct
urebull Thai excise tax rate use
different criteria between
passenger car (tougher)
and pickup truck (more
lenient)
bull Even within pickup truck
with same CO2
emissionkm excise tax
rates are different
1 lt 15 lt 2 compartments
17
FEPIT prediction of new passenger car mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Label shows average FE [Lge100km]
in that vehicle segment which
improved with FEPIT estimationProjection
Passenger car
2016 2030
Projection
568 366 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
18
FEPIT prediction of new pickup truck mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Projection
Pickup based (SingleSpaceDouble Cabs amp PPV)
2016 2030
Projection
767 494 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
15
Updated FE database for new Passenger Light Duty Vehicle (PLDV)
Vehicle typesNew sale (Top 10 ranked vehicles) Weighted-average FC (Lge100 km)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 Eco car 187429 118519 87745 114095 156234 488 489 488 475 476
2 City car subcompact Sedan amp
Hatchback
271018 167522 117548 76447 86200 599 598 578 585 582
3 Compact car C-segment
Sedan Hatchback Coupe Roadster
89975 66586 40624 47820 53797 645 651 655 619 614
4 D-segment full size sedan 34363 19343 16407 12312 9118 722 733 711 725 725
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 42046 41046 50690 39417 40293 744 695 662 625 625
6 SUV and MPV 10307 10617 14332 13790 22974 883 774 759 774 748
7 PPV 58942 48646 69063 60683 59576 952 917 843 815 815
8 Single cab pickup 75024 51325 50851 48127 44485 765 766 760 740 736
9 Extra cab pickup 278019 206130 168236 176758 186727 769 770 769 740 744
10 4 doors pickup 164650 114385 107986 108602 157299 855 856 858 796 791
Sub-total vehicle ( share of
total vehicle registration)
1211773
(9325)
844119
(9328)
723482
(9088)
698051
(8602)
816703
(8879)
DLT new registers 1299508 904969 796089 811518 919820
Annual weighted-average FC 698 701 708 681 675
FC change 04 09 -38 -09
Weight Average FE of Passenger Light Duty Vehicles (PLDV) sales during 2013-2017
Ref GIZ study based on data from Department of Land Transporthttpwwwfiafoundationorgmedia45112wp11-iea-report-update-2014pdfhttpswwwglobalfueleconomyorgmedia418761wp15-ldv-comparisonpdf
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
54 59 5869 79 77
71 76 76
2013 2014 2015
16
Vehicles classification for FEPIT tool
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2016 Data
Vehicle types
Corrected data Prepared data for FEPIT input
Weighted-average FC
(Lge100 km)
Vehicle class FC range
(Lge100km)
CO2 range
(gCO2km)
Passenger car 2016 average (568)
BEV 15 357
PHEV 30 714
1 Eco car 475 HEV 53 1261
2 City car subcompact 585 ECO Car 2 lt 43 lt 1023
3 Compact car C-segment 619 Eco Car 1 43 ndash 51 1023 ndash 1213
4 D-segment full size sedan 725 Compact car 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 625 Mini-MPV B-SUV 63 ndash 84 1499 ndash 1998
6 SUV and MPV 774 SUV Full size MPV gt 84 gt 1998
Pickup based 2016 average (767)(singlespacedouble cabs amp PPV) BEV 2638 6275
PHEV 4475 10645
HEV 6313 15015
ICE1 lt 51 lt 1213
7 PPV 815 ICE2 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
8 Single cab pickup 740 ICE3 63 ndash 74 1499 ndash 1760
9 Extra cab pickup 740 ICE4 74 ndash 84 1760 ndash 1998
10 4 doors pickup 796 ICE5 gt 84 gt 1998
PLDV average 681
Exci
se ta
x st
ruct
urebull Thai excise tax rate use
different criteria between
passenger car (tougher)
and pickup truck (more
lenient)
bull Even within pickup truck
with same CO2
emissionkm excise tax
rates are different
1 lt 15 lt 2 compartments
17
FEPIT prediction of new passenger car mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Label shows average FE [Lge100km]
in that vehicle segment which
improved with FEPIT estimationProjection
Passenger car
2016 2030
Projection
568 366 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
18
FEPIT prediction of new pickup truck mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Projection
Pickup based (SingleSpaceDouble Cabs amp PPV)
2016 2030
Projection
767 494 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
16
Vehicles classification for FEPIT tool
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2016 Data
Vehicle types
Corrected data Prepared data for FEPIT input
Weighted-average FC
(Lge100 km)
Vehicle class FC range
(Lge100km)
CO2 range
(gCO2km)
Passenger car 2016 average (568)
BEV 15 357
PHEV 30 714
1 Eco car 475 HEV 53 1261
2 City car subcompact 585 ECO Car 2 lt 43 lt 1023
3 Compact car C-segment 619 Eco Car 1 43 ndash 51 1023 ndash 1213
4 D-segment full size sedan 725 Compact car 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
5 mini-MPV and B-SUV 625 Mini-MPV B-SUV 63 ndash 84 1499 ndash 1998
6 SUV and MPV 774 SUV Full size MPV gt 84 gt 1998
Pickup based 2016 average (767)(singlespacedouble cabs amp PPV) BEV 2638 6275
PHEV 4475 10645
HEV 6313 15015
ICE1 lt 51 lt 1213
7 PPV 815 ICE2 51 ndash 63 1213 ndash 1499
8 Single cab pickup 740 ICE3 63 ndash 74 1499 ndash 1760
9 Extra cab pickup 740 ICE4 74 ndash 84 1760 ndash 1998
10 4 doors pickup 796 ICE5 gt 84 gt 1998
PLDV average 681
Exci
se ta
x st
ruct
urebull Thai excise tax rate use
different criteria between
passenger car (tougher)
and pickup truck (more
lenient)
bull Even within pickup truck
with same CO2
emissionkm excise tax
rates are different
1 lt 15 lt 2 compartments
17
FEPIT prediction of new passenger car mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Label shows average FE [Lge100km]
in that vehicle segment which
improved with FEPIT estimationProjection
Passenger car
2016 2030
Projection
568 366 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
18
FEPIT prediction of new pickup truck mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Projection
Pickup based (SingleSpaceDouble Cabs amp PPV)
2016 2030
Projection
767 494 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
17
FEPIT prediction of new passenger car mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Label shows average FE [Lge100km]
in that vehicle segment which
improved with FEPIT estimationProjection
Passenger car
2016 2030
Projection
568 366 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
18
FEPIT prediction of new pickup truck mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Projection
Pickup based (SingleSpaceDouble Cabs amp PPV)
2016 2030
Projection
767 494 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
18
FEPIT prediction of new pickup truck mix and segment ave FE
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Projection
Pickup based (SingleSpaceDouble Cabs amp PPV)
2016 2030
Projection
767 494 Lge100km
(2016) (2030)
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
19
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Total Cost of Ownership (Customerrsquos viewpoint)
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
20
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Market
averageNet Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
20000 kmyear
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
21
TCO Results Customerrsquos viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Market
average
Note Vehicle price is averaged from market survey excepted the xEV which is followed PTT EV study
Battery cost is also followed PTT EV study (around 22 of vehicle gate price) and schedule for replacing every 8 years
Maintenance cost of ICE is the engine overhauling expense (50000 THB estimated) for every 10 years
Energy expense = fuel expense (refer to considered fuel price) + electric charging for BEVPHEV (assume 4 THBkWh)
Required some subsidize
Net Present Value
20 Years 465 discount rate
24000 kmyear
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
22
Results of Cost Benefit Analysis
Impacts in Governmentrsquos Viewpoint
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
23
Results Government viewpoint 2030
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Required subsidize
for pickup truck
044
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
24
Impact on CO2 emission reduction
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
~38
31 October 2018 OTP ndash NDC Action Plan httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
OTP ndash NDC action planTotal CO2 reduction target is
310Million TonCO2 in 2030
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
25
Results discussion from Thailandrsquo study
bull Total Cost of Ownership for FE improvement of new PLDV
Car (Gasoline) Lower TCO in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario without government support
Pickup (Diesel) Similar with government subsidy in lsquoGFEI Targetrsquo scenario
bull Cost benefit in Governmentrsquos viewpoint
Government income will increase since increasing of annual registration tax and fuel excise tax
Pickup truck subsidize is required to encourage FE improvement for pickup truck market but less
evident compared to income increase
FE improvement of new PLDV can help reduce about 38 from total CO2 mitigation target of the
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for Transport sector
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
26ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Energy and Environmental Impacts
of the EXCISE TAX Reform for New Vehicle Registration and
Transportation Fuels in The PHILIPPINES
Alex Koumlrner
Alex_koernergmxde
Consultant for
Clean Air Asia
Alvin Mejia amp
Kathleen Dematera
Clean Air Asia
Bert Fabian
UN Environment
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
27
Methodology
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
2013 2020
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
28
Results for new average LDV fuel consumption
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
29
Results ndash Fuel use and emissions in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
30
Results ndash Fuel cost in the Tax Reform Scenario
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate ChangeClean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
31
Results discussion from the Philippinesrsquo study
bull According to the analysis increasing the excise tax of vehicles based on vehicle price can have an
effect on vehicle fuel economy
bull In reality since the vehicle excise tax is based on price ndash and not directly on fuel economy ndash the
effect of the tax reform on fuel economy will be much less than the estimated 3 annual
improvement
bull This is due to the fact that the consumer does not make the link between excise tax and fuel economy
bull Due to the excise tax increase he will eventually buy a slightly cheaper and therefore smaller and
somewhat more efficient vehicle but the excise tax reform based on vehicle price provides no
inherent incentives to choose more efficient cars
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
Clean Air Asia 2017 httpcleanairasiaorg
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
32
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Thailand
bull October 31 2018 gtgt The meeting of Coordinating
Committee on Policy and Actions for Climate Change
Mitigation and Sustainable Transport proposed
some FE Policies to be approved soon by the
Ministry of Transport (tentatively November 19)
FE Policy
ExistingNear term measures
bull Restructure excise tax for new PLDV (Former Engine size
Current CO2 based)
bull Restructure excise tax for new Motorcycle (Engine size
CO2 based)
bull Revise annual registration tax to CO2-based scheme
Proposed measures
bull Strengthening CO2-based excise tax scheme
bull Use fuel price mechanism for efficient vehicle used
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpwwwotpgothindexphppostviewid=2826
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
33
Updated recent governmentrsquos efforts Philippines
bull January 1 2018 gtgt New excise taxes on cars and fuels
ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
httpswwwautoindustriyacomauto-industry-newsnew-excise-taxes-on-cars-fuel-effective-january-1-2018html
Efficient vehicle
subsidize
Revising
fuel excise tax
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
34ASEAN German Technical Cooperation ndash Transport and Climate Change
THANK YOU
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