COSMO-DE-EPS Status, developments & plans -- WG 7 parallel session --

COSMO-DE-EPSCOSMO-DE-EPSStatus, developments & plansStatus, developments & plans

-- WG 7 parallel session ---- WG 7 parallel session --

Christoph Gebhardt, Susanne Theis,Michael Buchhold, Andreas Röpnack

Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD

COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 1

OutlineOutline

operational set upoperational set up

forecast productsforecast products

verification resultsverification results

new developmentsnew developments

current researchcurrent research

future plansfuture plans

COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 2

STATUSSTATUS

DEVELOPMENTS & DEVELOPMENTS & PLANSPLANS

Operational set-up of COSMO-DE-EPSOperational set-up of COSMO-DE-EPS

COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 3

STATUSSTATUS

operational set-up:operational set-up:

20 members20 members

grid size: 2.8 kmgrid size: 2.8 km

convection-permittingconvection-permitting

lead time: 0-lead time: 0-2727 hours, hours,

8 starts per day (00, 03, 06,... UTC)8 starts per day (00, 03, 06,... UTC) model domain

The 20 members of COSMO-DE-EPS

11 22 33 44 55

GMEGME

IFSIFS

GSMGSM

GFSGFS

BC-EPSBC-EPS

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BC-EPS for boundary and initial perturbations

COSMO-DE-EPS 2.8km

COSMO 7km

BC-EPSGME, IFS, GFS, GSM

Generation of EPS membersGeneration of EPS members

run at ECMWF asrun at ECMWF astime critical applicationtime critical application

COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 6

Forecast productsForecast products

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STATUSSTATUS

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Operational products (Operational products („forecasters‘ choice“ in testing mode„forecasters‘ choice“ in testing mode))

type:type:probabilities, quantiles, EPS mean, spread, max. & min. memberprobabilities, quantiles, EPS mean, spread, max. & min. memberforecasters’ choice:forecasters’ choice:members as 2D-forecast fields for selected variablesmembers as 2D-forecast fields for selected variables

COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

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Operational products (Operational products („forecasters‘ choice“ in testing mode„forecasters‘ choice“ in testing mode))

type:type:probabilities, quantiles, EPS mean, spread, max. & min. memberprobabilities, quantiles, EPS mean, spread, max. & min. memberforecasters’ choice:forecasters’ choice:members as 2D-forecast fields for selected variablesmembers as 2D-forecast fields for selected variables

variables:variables:precip., 2m temperature, 10m wind gusts, snow, Tmin, Tmaxprecip., 2m temperature, 10m wind gusts, snow, Tmin, Tmaxforecasters’ choice:forecasters’ choice:cloud cover (low), CAPE, synthetic radar reflectivity (max. in column)cloud cover (low), CAPE, synthetic radar reflectivity (max. in column)

COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

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Operational products (Operational products („forecasters‘ choice“ in testing mode„forecasters‘ choice“ in testing mode))

type:type:probabilities, quantiles, EPS mean, spread, max. & min. memberprobabilities, quantiles, EPS mean, spread, max. & min. memberforecasters’ choice:forecasters’ choice:members as 2D-forecast fields for selected variablesmembers as 2D-forecast fields for selected variables

variables:variables:precip., 2m temperature, 10m wind gusts, snow, Tmin, Tmaxprecip., 2m temperature, 10m wind gusts, snow, Tmin, Tmaxforecasters’ choice:forecasters’ choice:cloud cover (low), CAPE, synthetic radar reflectivity (max. in column)cloud cover (low), CAPE, synthetic radar reflectivity (max. in column)

temporal reference (e.g. of probs.):temporal reference (e.g. of probs.):1hour, 6 and 12 hours1hour, 6 and 12 hours

spatial reference spatial reference 1 grid point or 10 x 10 grid points (for precip. probabilities only)1 grid point or 10 x 10 grid points (for precip. probabilities only)

COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

Verification of operational forecastsVerification of operational forecasts

EPS not calibrated or post-processedEPS not calibrated or post-processed

observations: rain-gauge adjusted radar or SYNOP observations: rain-gauge adjusted radar or SYNOP

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STATUSSTATUS

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winter 12/13

winter 11/12summer 11

summer 12

BrierBrier Skill Score Skill Score (reference: (reference: deterministic run deterministic run of COSMO-DE)of COSMO-DE)

hourly hourly precipitationprecipitation

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winter 12/13

winter 11/12summer 11

summer 12

ROC areaROC area

hourly hourly precipitationprecipitation

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winter 12/13

winter 11/12summer 11

summer 12

ReliabilityReliability

hourly hourly precipitationprecipitation

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winter 12/13

winter 11/12summer 11

summer 12

Rank Rank histogrammhistogramm

hourly hourly precipitationprecipitation

2m temperature2m temperature wind gustswind gusts

rank histogramrank histogram

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New developmentsNew developments

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DEVELOPMENTSDEVELOPMENTS

Perturbed coefficient for minimum diffusionPerturbed coefficient for minimum diffusion (heat and momentum) (heat and momentum)

operational setup + perturbation of tkhmin, tkmminoperational setup + perturbation of tkhmin, tkmmin

Range: [0.2 ,0.5, 0.8]Range: [0.2 ,0.5, 0.8]

4 members 0.5, 7 members 0.2, 7 members 0.84 members 0.5, 7 members 0.2, 7 members 0.8

Test period: November 2011, 00 UTC runsTest period: November 2011, 00 UTC runs

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2m temperature

perturbed minimum diffusion

referenceSkill (RMSE)

spread

COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 19

2m temperature

perturbed minimum diffusion

reference

Brier Skill Score

COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 20

± half the difference between C-EU and C-DE soil moisture in all layers but the lowest

test period June/July 2012

m1 m2 m3 m4 m5 m6 ... ... m18 m19 m20

- +.5*inc -.5*inc - +.5*inc -.5*inc … … -.5*inc +.5*inc -

Perturbed soil moisturePerturbed soil moisture

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Perturbation ~10% of layer water content units: kg/m2 COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 23

2m temperature

perturbed soil moisture

reference

Skill (RMSE)

spread

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2m temperature

perturbed soil moisture

referenceBrier Skill Score

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Current researchCurrent research

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DEVELOPMENTSDEVELOPMENTS

Probabilistic forecasts for efficient and safe use of renewable energies

(EweLine, ORKA)

Wind, photovoltaic

Evaluate forecast quality for wind farms

Improve methods for EPS perturbations, e.g. IC perturbations

FINO1

FINO3 FINO2

Cabauw Lindenberg

Karlsruhe

Hamburg

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COSMO-DE-EPS at FINO2 (100m)

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win

d s

pee

d

forecast time

Initial condition perturbationsInitial condition perturbationsmodified by orographymodified by orography

Current setup:Current setup:

• add anomalies to operational COSMO-DE analysis fields for add anomalies to operational COSMO-DE analysis fields for selected variablesselected variables

• Anomaly: BC-EPS minus short-range forecast (latest COSMO-EU)Anomaly: BC-EPS minus short-range forecast (latest COSMO-EU)

• Filter anomalies near the surfaceFilter anomalies near the surface

• Full anomaly above model level ~ 25, no perturbation below m.l. 40Full anomaly above model level ~ 25, no perturbation below m.l. 40

Modification:Modification:

• Degree of perturbation depends on Degree of perturbation depends on spatial variance of orographyspatial variance of orography

• The “smoother” the orography, the higher the degree of The “smoother” the orography, the higher the degree of perturbation near the surfaceperturbation near the surface

Test period: March 2012, 00 UTC runsTest period: March 2012, 00 UTC runs

COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 30

COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 31

deg

ree

of

per

turb

atio

n1

0

model level surfacemodel top

σh ≥ 500m

σh < 125m

COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 33

10m wind gusts

modified IC perturbation

reference

Skill (RMSE)

spread

COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 34

10m wind gusts

modified IC perturbation

referenceCRPS

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hourly precipitation

modified IC perturbation

reference

Skill (RMSE)

spread

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hourly precipitation

modified IC perturbation

reference

CRPS

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2m temperature

modified IC perturbation

reference

Skill (RMSE)

spread

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GMEGME

IFSIFS

GSMGSM

GFSGFS

BC-EPSBC-EPS

COSMO-LEPS

COSMO-LEPS

M1M1

M2M2

M3M3

M4M4

COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 38

single-member single-member RMSERMSE

2m temperature 2m temperature 40 members40 members

BC-EPS driven members (1-BC-EPS driven members (1-20)20)

LEPS driven members (21-40)LEPS driven members (21-40)

forecast time in h

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winter 2011/12winter 2011/12

Brier Skill Brier Skill ScoreScore

Threshold in K

2m temperature 2m temperature 40 members40 members

BC-EPS driven members (1-BC-EPS driven members (1-20)20)

LEPS driven members (21-40)LEPS driven members (21-40)

COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD 40

winter 2012/13winter 2012/13

single-member single-member RMSERMSE

forecast time in h

Brier Skill Brier Skill ScoreScore

Threshold in K

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LEPS

Winter 11/12: COSMO 4.12 int2lm 1.18since 2012 0802 COSMO 4.21 int2lm 1.18since 2013 0123 COSMO 4.26 int2lm 1.20 no „Kain-Fritsch members“ used as BC for COSMO-DE-EPS since 2012 0329 BCEPS

Winter 11/12: COSMO 4.21 int2lm 1.18since 2012 1204 COSMO 4.22 int2lm 1.20since 2013 0118 COSMO 4.26 int2lm 1.20

Future plansFuture plans

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PLANSPLANS

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Future plans and optionsFuture plans and options

calibration in operational modecalibration in operational mode (needs evaluation by forecasters) (needs evaluation by forecasters)

add new physics perturbations or alternative perturbation add new physics perturbations or alternative perturbation methods (e.g. stochastic physics)methods (e.g. stochastic physics)

LETKF for IC perturbations (KENDA)LETKF for IC perturbations (KENDA)

ICON-EPS for BC perturbations (2017 ?) ICON-EPS for BC perturbations (2017 ?)

use time-lagged ensemble approach in product generationuse time-lagged ensemble approach in product generation

COSMO GM 2013, Sibiu C. Gebhardt, DWD

Thank you!

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