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Corn Situation and Outlook. Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2006. Corn Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1992-2006. U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Price, 1992-2006. U.S. & Foreign Corn Ending Stocks 1996-2006. Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Corn Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2006
Corn Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1992-2006
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mill
ion
bu
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Price, 1992-2006
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mill
ion
bu
$1.50
$1.70
$1.90
$2.10
$2.30
$2.50
$2.70
$2.90
$3.10
$3.30
$3.50
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. & Foreign Corn Ending Stocks 1996-2006
010002000300040005000600070008000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year
Mil
lio
n b
ush
els
Foreign Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Corn ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 1971 1971 1971Acres (M. P. A.) 78.3 78.6 78.9Yield 150 151 152Supply(M. Bu) 12620 12725 12835 Use:
Feed 6050Ethanol 2150 Food, Seed 1390 Exports 2200
Ending Stocks 750 935 1120Projected Price $3.20 $3.00 $2.80
Wheat Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2006
Wheat Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2006
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mil
lio
n B
u
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2006
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mil
lio
n B
u
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. & Foreign Wheat Ending Stocks, 1996-2006
010002000300040005000600070008000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year
Mil
lio
n b
ush
els
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Wheat ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 571 571 571Acres (M. A. Planted) 57.2 57.3 57.4Yield 38.6 38.7 38.8Supply(M. Bu) 2479 2488 2495 Use:
Food, Seed 1000 Feed, Resid 145 Exports 925
Ending Stocks 374 418 462Projected Price $4.50 $4.10 $3.70
Soybean Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2006
Soybean Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2006
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mil
lio
n B
u
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2006
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mil
lio
n B
u
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
$8.00
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks vs. Price, 1990-2006
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Ending Stocks (MB)
Pri
ce
/Bu
. ‘06
‘05
‘01‘00 ‘99
‘98
‘97
‘96
‘95
‘94
‘93
‘92‘91
‘90‘04
‘03
‘02
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Ending Stocks, 1996-2006
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Year
Mil
lio
n B
ush
els
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Meal Ending Stocks, 1997-2006
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Year
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Oil Ending Stocks, 1997-2006
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Year
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Soybeans ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/LowBeginning Stocks(MB) 449 449 449Acres (M. P. A.) 75.2 75.6 76.0Yield 42.5 43.0 43.5Supply(M. Bu) 3602 3657 3711 Use:
Crushing 1780 Exports 1145 Seed, Feed 166
Ending Stocks 389 565 741Projected Price $6.50 $6.00 $5.50
Grain Sorghum Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2006
Sorghum Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1996-2006
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mil
lio
n B
u
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Sorghum Ending Stocks and Price, 1996-2006
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mil
lio
n B
u
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
$2.25
$2.50
$2.75
$3.00
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
Supply/Demand Projections:2005/2006Sorghum ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 65.0 65.0 65.0
Acres (M. P. A.) 6.2 6.3 6.4
Supply(M. Bu) 345 354 359
Use:
Food & Seed 55
Exports 165
Feed 95
Ending Stocks 27 39 51
Projected Price $3.20 $3.00 $2.80
Cotton Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2006
Cotton Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2006
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Th
ou
sa
nd
Ba
les
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Production Ending Stocks Price(cents/lb)
U.S. Cotton Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2006
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Th
ou
sa
nd
Ba
les
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Ending Stocks Price(cents/lb)
U.S. & Foreign Cotton Ending Stocks, 1997-2006
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Year
Th
ou
san
d B
ales
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Cotton ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 6.0 6.0 6.0
Acres (M. P. A.) 15.2 15.3 15.4
Yield 783 798 811
Supply(MB) 26.9 27.4 27.9
Use:
Domestic 5.2
Exports 16.2
Ending Stocks 4.6 6.0 7.4
Projected Price/cwt
What Could Change The Outlook?
South America Plant Mix Non-Farm Economic Conditions in U.S.,
World – Oil Supplies, War Exchange Rates China Weather
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