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8/6/2019 Cooperative Modeling
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System Dynamics and Regional Water Planning inthe Middle Rio Grande Basin
Vincent Tidwell, Howard Passell, Erik Webb, SteveConrad and Dick Thomas
Sandia National Laboratories
Gary Woodard and Jesse RoachUniversity of Arizona
Presentation to: Scenario Development Team
January 25, 2003
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Modeling Objectives
• Provide a tool for quantitatively comparing water management alternatives and scenarios, in terms of:
Water savings, and
Cost to implement and maintain the alternative
• Provide tool for engaging policy makers, stakeholders,and the public in the decision process
• Demonstrate the interconnectedness and complexity of our regional water system
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System Dynamics
• We employ System Dynamics , which provides aformal framework for managing multiple interacting
subsystems, each of whichvary in time
• With system dynamics we areuniquely able to quantify
feed-back, time delays, andcoupling between subsystemcomponents
rface Wa
rbasin Transf
ater U
ace Water Extrac
om Aodel
o Aode
1
2
ecipitatio
potranspirat
unof
oundwat
ndwater Return F
ndwater Extract
Oceanischarg
ace Water to Oc
ce Water Return
echarg
turn Flo
ater Us
G r o u n d w a t e r D i s c h a r e
Agricultural Water R Water M Ag Mod
Urbplusind_consum
precip
precip_avg
GW_to_ocean
GW_proportion
available_water_apportionment
ET
precip_apportionment
Precip_mm
Ocean
GW_extraction
GW_return_flow
min_SW_to_ocean
SW_to_ocean
SW_extraction
Sw_return_flow
available_SW
available_GW
total_consumption
urban_demand
SW_flow
urban_consumption
ind_consumption
dynamic_static_switch
SW_to_oceanSw_return_flow
runoff_avg
ag_consumption
ag_consumption
total_extraction
interbasin_transfers_in
SW_flow
GW_discharge
interbasin_transfers_out
ind_consumption
GW_extraction
GW_return_flowtotal_extraction
current_ag_consumption
interbasin_transfers_out
interbasin_transfers_in
SW_flow
GW_to_oceanrecharge_avg
SW_extraction
GW_discharge
Recharge
std_normal ind_demand
runoff
precip_stdev
urban_consumption
ind_consumption
urban_SW_proportion
ag_GW_proportion
GW_to_ocean
SW_extraction_1980GW_extraction_1980
recharge_avg
mm_precip_avg
mm_precip_stdev
basin_area
runoff_stdev
runoff_avg
recharge_avg
urban_delta
min_SW_to_ocean
ind_delta
ind_SW_proportion
urban_consumption
ag_SW_proportion
current_urban_consumption
current_ind_consumption
current_ag_consumption
avg_SW_to_Ocean
Ag_model_switch
ag_demand
years_to_completion_inyears_to_completion_out
additional_capacity_in additional_capacity_out
aqueduct_switch_in
aqueduct_switch_out
current_capacity_in current_capacity_out
interbasin_transfers_ininterbasin_transfers_out
Basin_Water_Req
Ag_model_requirements
ag_delta
dynamic_static_switch
Sw_return_flowGW_return_flow
Ag_available
total_demand
total_extraction
Surplus
maximum_extractable_amount
ag_consumption
Focus on the broad-scale structure of the system
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Why System Dynamics• Broadly accessible
PC basedUser friendlyinterfacesComputationsin seconds tominutes
• Models easilymodified for scenario testing
Model Controls
Set Model ParametersPer Capita Water Use
50 100 150 200 250
Rural
100.0
100 150 200 250 300
AlbuquerqueResidential
180.0
50 100 150 200
Albuquerque Non-Residential
70.00
Return Flow Rates
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Sewered
0.50
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Septic Tanks
0.75
ET Rates
1 2 3 4 5
Riparian
3.00
2 3 4 5 6 7
Open Water
5.00
Agricultural Proportions
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Return Flow
0.333
1 2 3 4 5
Application
3.00
Use of Infiltration GalleryStart
Stop
Riparian Area Reduction10%
25%
50%
None
Groundwater Inflow fromadjacent Basins
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000
28,400.80
Run Model
Set Parameters
Run Model
1.
2.
Run Modelwith DefaultParameters
OR
Go toGroundwater Results
Go toSurfaceWater Results
View Whole Model
Go toWater UseResults
Return to Start
View Model Structure
Run Modelone step at
a time
OR
Yearly Time Step 1994
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Model Development Process• Assembled a “Cooperative Modeling Team” including members from:
Each Water Assembly constituency group,Middle Region Council of Governments (MRCOG), andUtton Transboundary Resources Center, UNM School of Law
• Team meets every other week to:Conceptualize model components,
Identify external sources of expertise and data, andReview the model
• Community engagementExpose community to model
• Public forums,• Educational venues, and• Community events
Interactions with the professional community• Scenario Development!!!
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MRG Model
• Bounded by planning region
boundaries• Simulations on annual timestep
• Primary modules
Surface water Groundwater PopulationDemand
• Urban• Agricultural• Environmental• Evaporative
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MRG Model: Surface Water System
Future Albuquerquewithdrawals from river
Transfers togroundwater system
Accounts for shallowaquifer/river
interactions
Disaggregated by three counties
and self-supplied
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MRG Model: Inflows
Historic data from 1960-2000
Future aggregate inflowsare stochasticallygenerated from historicaldistributions
Option to include droughtof specified duration andintensity
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Agriculture
ET dependson climate
Alsocalculate
irrigationrecharge
Includes conveyance
channel ET and leakage
Data largely from MRGCD and CountyExtension Office
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MRG Model: Pumping Induced Leakage
Pumping induced riverleakage simulatedusing the Glover-Balmer Equationcalibrated to USGSMODFLOW data(Kernodle et al., 1995)
Total leakage from all sources (i.e., captured recharge, river
flows, conveyance channel flows, ag recharge) captured bygroundwater pumping
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Shallow Aquifer System
Bosque ET calculated
similar to that usedfor the agricultureconsumption term
Balance between Riparian/Ditch bank ET with shallow aquiferinflows from mountain recharge, ag recharge, and conveyancechannel leakage
Drain return flow not derived from un-used irrigation water
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MRG Model: Groundwater System
River leakage transfer
Disaggregatedmunicipalwithdrawals
Other major groundwater users
Municipaldemand drivenby population
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Urban Withdrawals
• Urban use disaggregated by three
counties and self supplied• Demand is calculated on a per capita
basis, hence population growth fuelsincreasing demand. Use BBER’s
population growth rates
• Demands are calculated separately for indoor and outdoor uses
• Demands are also calculated separately by sector
MunicipalCommercialIndustrialInstitutional
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Alternative Conservation Measures• Bosque restoration• Irrigated agriculture
Irrigation efficiency,Conveyance systemlosses, andAlternative crops/acreage
• Municipal Conservation
Water pricing,Water re-use, andResidential/commercialconservationRooftop harvesting
• Desalination• Reservoir storage
Up-stream storage,Artificial recharge, and
New reservoir
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