Converting the Unconverted: Dispelling the False Consensus Bias Punam Anand Keller (...

Converting the Unconverted:Dispelling the False Consensus

BiasPunam Anand Keller

(http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/punam.keller/)

Topics

1. Shed light on decision-making process

2. Message tactics used for increasing compliance

3. Research methods to access this information

OR

1. Shed light on Process

OR

Goal: Attenuate Anti-Compliance Heuristic and Motivate Systematic Processing

COGNITIVE MOTIVATIONAL

Message Characteristics

• Low/High Level of Fear

• Framing (Gain/Loss)• Low/High Vividness• Base/Case Format• Physical/Social

consequences• Order of

Recommendations/Consequences

• Self/Other Referencing

• Low/High Argument Strength

• Single/Multiple Exposures

• Low/High Source Credibility

• Tailoring/Mass• Emotional/Rational

Research Processes

1. Lab experiments

2. Ethnography

3. Meta-analysis

Lab Studies• Low Fear appeals are more effective for segments who are not

currently saving for retirement; High Fear appeals are more effective for those who are…

• Gain Frames are more effective for segments who are depressed; Loss frames are more effective for the optimistic…

• Vivid presentations are more effective for less involved segments; Presentation format is less important for those who are involved…

• Recommendations should appear before consequences for those who are not currently saving to prevent freezing; The reverse format is more effectives for those who are converted…

• Women are more persuaded by consequences to others; Men are more persuaded by self-consequences...

• Women find case presentations more compelling; Men prefer base rate presentations…

Ethnography

RetirementSavings

Children’sEducation

Buy a Bigger House

Host Parties

Future Better ThanPast

Live Today

InStyle

Ethnography

• 1. Identify benefits lost due to advocated behaviors.– Loss in identity/status, image in community,

enjoyment/relaxation in the short-term…. due to reduced income/increased saving…

• 2. Connect same benefits to advocated behaviors.– Gain in identity/status, image in community may be

replaced with volunteer work instead of spending…– Proportion of savings could be directed to a

community fund or vacation in the short-term…

Meta-Analysis

For AfricanAmericanWomen over 50

Half of whom think the Govt. will bail them out, but all of who think they are in big trouble if not

But are split on whether anything works or

whether they can save

Only 20% have any retirement

savings

A message to encourageRetirement

Savings

Self-ReferencingMale

Communicator

Gain FrameSocial Consequences

Case/Story

.61 .90

Changing Attitudes is not enough

• Unconverted may have awareness, interest, attitude and even behavioral intentions, but cannot change behavior.

» Cost (barriers)/benefit (gifts) tradeoff» Facilitating conditions» Responsibility» Social norms

Topics

1. Shed light on decision-making process

2. Message tactics used for increasing compliance

3. Research methods to access this information

Additional Notes

Heuristics & Biases

• Overconfidence

• Anchoring

• Availability

• Probability

• Mental Accounting

Actual Confidence

Individual Differences

Message Factors

Desired Confidence

Contextual Factors

Available/Accessible Gap

*Goal: Attenuate Anti-Compliance Heuristic and Motivate Systematic Processing

1. Shed light on Process

General Attitude Towards Compliance for

Saving/Risk

Specific Attitude Towards Retirement Planning and

Savings Recommendations

Heuristic/SystematicMessage Processing,

Attitude Towards Recommendations

(even though they may not be read)

Individual Differences

• Gender• Age• Race• Involvement• Prior Intentions/Behavior• Threat Appraisal• Coping Appraisal• Self Regulation Orientation

Context Factors

• Prevention vs. Promotion

• Level of controllability

• Level of responsibility

• Level of uncertainty

Specific Attitudes Toward Risk

Individual Differences

Message Factors

Cognitive ReasonsLow Expectancy

For Unsafe Incidents

Motivational ReasonsPositive self-evaluations

Unrealistic optimism Illusion of Control

General Attitudes Toward Risk

HeuristicProcessing

Contextual Factors

2. Role of Communications

3: Role of Message Tactics

Increase expectancy for:

SusceptibilitySeverity

Cognitive Reasons:Low Expectancy

For Unsafe Incidents

Motivational Reasons:Positive self-evaluations,

Unrealistic optimism, Illusion of Control

Consequences: Low/Hi ThreatPhysical/SocialVivid/BlandPositive/NegativeBase/Case RateLow/Hi FrequencyLow/Hi ControllabilitySelf/Other ReferencingStandard/Tailored

Recommendations:Low/Hi Response Effic.Low/Hi Self-EfficacyLow/Hi Costs/BarriersLow/Hi Facilitators Prevention/DetectionAbstract/ConcreteSelf/Other ReferencingApproach/AvoidLow/Hi Responsibility

Increase expectancy for:

Response EfficacySelf-Efficacy

Available/Accessible