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2 3
Contents
Introduction 6
Executive Summary 8
Location 10
Connectivity 12
The Vision 14
Planning 16
Transport Infrastructure 16
New Apartment Guidelines 18
Summary 19
Growth Area 1 - Existing Planning Permission 20
Growth Area 1 - Feasibility Study No.1 26
Growth Area 1 - Feasibility Study No.2 28
Growth Area 3 - Expired Planning Permission 30
Growth Area 3 - Feasibility Study No.3 32
Economic Overview 34
Contacts & Further Information 36
Clongriffin DART Station
Portmarnock Golf Club
Baldoyle
Clongriffin
Fr. Collins Park
Sutton
Howth
4 5
Exciting Residential Development Opportunity with Planning Permission in Partindicative site boundary only
6 7
Introduction
RESIDENTIAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Residential completions increased by 23.2% Y/Y
in Q1 2019
18,828 residential dwellings developed in the past
12 months
Dublin has 28.3% of national population with 26.8% of
housing stock
DART Station
100m Dublin Bus
300m Airport
11.8kmDublin Port
14.4km
TRANSPORTATION
CONTRACT
18,828 New dwellings
23.2% Residential completions
26.8% Housingstock28.3%
Nationalpopulation
Ireland is one of the fastest growing economies in the EU
Economic output increased 6.7% in 2018
Dublin’s population rising by 2% per annum
ECONOMIC FACTORS
Residential transactions are currently growing by 4.5% Y/Y
nationally in Q1 2019
New homes sales are up 20.4% Y/Y, compared to only 1.4% in
the second-hand market
Prices currently rising by 3.9% pa nationally
RESIDENTIAL SALES MARKET
6.7% Economic output
20.4%New home sales
Ireland Economic growth
4.5% Residential transaction
2% Dublinpopulation
3.9% Pricerise
Employment growing with 81,200 new jobs created in 12 months to March 2019
Unemployment fallen to 4.8%
Real aggregate disposal income growing by 5.3%
per annum
EMPLOYMENT
Vacancy levels at 1.2% Vacancy levels 4% below Natural Vacancy Rate
Dublin rent increasing by 7.8% per annum
RESIDENTIAL RENTAL MARKET
4.8% Unemployment fall
81,200 New jobscreated
5.3% Disposable income
4% Below natural rates
1.2% Vacancy level
7.8% Dublin rent
TO LET
Measurements are approximate
8 9
Executive Summary• On the instruction of Receiver’s Tom
O’Brien and Simon Coyle, Mazars, Savills is delighted to present Project Shoreline to the market, an impressive residential development opportunity that offers scale, an attractive coastal location and proximity to Dublin City Centre in a single lot.
• Project Shoreline represents a unique opportunity to develop a predominately residentially zoned site that has been divided into two areas known as Growth Area 1 (GA 1) and Growth Area 3 (GA 3). Together, with High Amenity lands, the opportunity extends to approximately 50.77 hectares (125 acres), making it one of the largest residential development opportunities available in Dublin.
• The subject site is situated in Baldoyle, an attractive coastal town in north county Dublin. The site takes a high-profile position, in a highly accessible location with an abundance of public transport facilities within the immediate vicinity.
• GA 1 has the benefit of a full grant of planning for 546 residential units. The proposed scheme incorporates a new town centre and impressive landscaped grounds.
• In addition to the consented scheme, three feasibility studies demonstrate the potential to optimise critical mass on GA 1 and GA 3 (S.P.P) as a result of recent changes to national planning guidelines.
The land holding of approximately 125 acres, to be sold in one lot, comprises of:
Project Shoreline represents
a unique opportunity to
develop two adjacent zoned residential sites
• Approximately 16.66 hectares (41.16 acres).
• Full planning permission for 546 units, 1,917 sq m of commercial accommodation and high amenity lands.
• 161 houses, 62 duplex units and 323 apartments.
• Feasibility Study demonstrates potential uplift in residential unit numbers to 710 - 833 units.
• Approximately 6.16 hectares (15.23 acres).
• Zoned ‘Residential’ and ‘Village Centre’ under Local Area Plan.
• Historic planning permission for 483 residential units and a crèche.
• Feasibility Study demonstrates potential for retail accommodation, a crèche and an uplift in residential numbers to 759 units.
• Approximately 27.95 hectares (69.06 acres).
Growth Area 1
Growth Area 3
High Amenity Lands
10 11
LocationThe subject site is situated between the Coast Road and Clongiffin DART Station in the established residential coastal town of Baldoyle.
Prospective residents of the scheme can enjoy a selection of local amenities including those of Baldoyle Village, located approximately 1.5 km to the south east of the subject property and those of Sutton, Portmarnock and Howth which are located just beyond Baldoyle. The popular Clarehall Shopping Centre is located within approximately 6 km west of the site, while Dublin City Centre is approximately 14 km to the south.
The area caters for young families, professionals and outdoor enthusiasts with several schools, sports clubs, beaches and public parks in close proximity. Local schools include Saint Mary’s School for Girls, St. Fintan’s High School and St. Marnock’s National School. There are 3 golf clubs within the vicinity; Portmarnock Golf Club, St. Anne’s Golf Club and Sutton Golf Club, as well as GAA and rugby clubs. This coastal location is well known for its beaches with Portmarnock Beach and Burrow Beach within approximately 5 km.
With all that is on offer, the site is ideally placed for residential development, offering proximity to Dublin City Centre combined with much sought-after seaside living.
The site is ideally placed for residential development, offering proximity to Dublin City
Centre combined with seaside living
2
3
2
23
3
44a
N4N4
N7
N7 N81
N4
N3
N2
N2
N11
N11
N31
N31
N11
N81
N81
N81
N7
CorduffCorduff
17
15
1413
12
11
10
9
1
7
6
5
4
2
1
2
5
3
M1
M50
M50
M50
M50
M50
M11
4
4
5
5
7
6
M50
M3
M2
M4
M4
M7
M7
M9
M7
DUBLINAIRPORTDUBLIN
AIRPORT
DUBLINDUBLINDUBLINDUBLIN
BallsbridgeBallsbridge
SandyfordSandyford
StillorganStillorganRatfarnhamRatfarnham
DundrumDundrum
ChurchtownChurchtown
ClonskeaghClonskeagh
TerenureTerenure
TempleogueTempleogue
FoxrockFoxrock CabinteelyCabinteely
LeopardstownLeopardstown
CarrickminesCarrickmines
DunLaoghaire
DunLaoghaire
DonnybrookDonnybrook
DrumcondraDrumcondra
DocklandsDocklands
BeaumontBeaumont
SantrySantryFinglasFinglas
CastleknockCastleknock
LucanLucan
BallyfermotBallyfermot
WalkinstownWalkinstown
CitywestCitywest
BelgardBelgard
TallaghtTallaght
SaggartSaggart
MalahideMalahide
PortmarnockPortmarnock
ClontarfClontarf
ClongriffinClongriffin BALDOYLEBALDOYLE
HowthHowthSuttonSutton
SwordsSwords
DunboyneDunboyne
KilcloonKilcloon
CelbridgeCelbridge
StraffanStraffan
CastledillonCastledillon
BackwestonBackweston
Adamstown Adamstown
Moyglare HallMoyglare HallOngarOngar
LeixlipLeixlip
CloneeClonee
MaynoothMaynooth
RathcoffeyRathcoffey
FanaghFanagh
KilshanroeKilshanroe
The GreenhillThe Greenhill
StaplestownStaplestown
The CottThe Cott
BlackwoodBlackwood
RobertstownRobertstown
AllenwoodAllenwood
KilmeageKilmeage
AllenAllenCarraghCarragh
MilltownMilltown
ClonaghClonagh
NaasNaas
MullacashMullacash
BallymoreEustace
BallymoreEustace
BlessingtonBlessington
ManorKilbrideManor
Kilbride
BallinageeBallinagee
ArdcloughArdcloughClaneClane
KildareKildare
MaddenstownMaddenstown
BallysaxBallysax
EnfieldEnfield
RathroneRathrone
Dun Na SiDun Na SiArdrumsArdrums
DerrinturnDerrinturn
JohnstownBridge
JohnstownBridge CoolockCoolock
NorthernCross
NorthernCross
PalmerstownPalmerstown
3
BALDOYLEBALDOYLE
12 13
ConnectivityBaldoyle offers unrivalled accessibility with strong public transport links and an established road network. The site adjoins Clongriffin DART Station giving access to the City Centre within approximately 20 minutes whilst providing suburban services between Malahide and Belfast.
There are numerous local bus routes including 15, 29a, 31d, 32 and 32x with bus stops positioned in close proximity providing access to the city within approximately 40 minutes.
Accessibility is further enhanced by the R107, the main arterial road linking northern towns and suburbs to the city, situated approximately 3 km to the west. The M50 motorway is within proximity to the property and together they provide access to the City Centre within approximately 30 minutes by car. Dublin Airport is located approximately 12km to the north-west.
Travel Times from Subject Property*
DART - 5 minute walk
Dublin Bus - 7 minute walk
M50 – R107 - 15 minute drive
Dublin Airport - 18 minute drive
DublinAirport
CasementAir Base
CasementAir Base
R118
R119
R119
R828
R827
R116
R116
R115
R117
R117
R826
R111
R802
R105
R131
R103
R105
R105
R124
R124
R112
R825
R118
R113
R113
R118
R131
R807
R807R107
R108
R805
R108
R104
R104
R106
R809
R809
R106
R106
R107
R103
N1
R118
R138
R110
R110
R133
R114
R114
R114
R137
R137N31
N31
N11
M11M50
M50
M50
M50
M4
M50
M1
M1
M50
M50
M50
R132
R132
R108
R122
R122
N81
N81
N82
N7
N7
R113
R810
R148
R109
R113
R113
R136
R136
R134R134
R112
R119
R134
R120
R113
2
3
14
5
N2
Connolly Station
Dun LaoghaireDun Laoghaire
KilbarrackKilbarrack
RahneyRaheny
Dalkey
Killiney
Kilternan
Deansgrange
Blackrock
Booterstown
DundrumGoatsown
Foxrock
Sandyford
Clonskeagh
Rathfarnham
Terenure
Dalkey
Killiney
LoughlintownLoughlintown
CherrywoodCherrywood
Carrickmines
CabinteelyCabinteely
SallynogginSallynoggin
GlenagearyGlenageary
Kilternan
Deansgrange
Blackrock
Booterstown
DundrumGoatsown
StillorganStillorgan
Foxrock
Sandyford
Clonskeagh
Rathmines
BallsbridgeCrumlin
Rathfarnham
Terenure
StackstownGolf Club
StackstownGolf Club
KilboggetPark
MarlayPark
MarlayPark
KilboggetPark
DUBLINDUBLIN
Rathmines
BallsbridgeCrumlin
Clontarf
Drumcondra
Beaumont
Whitehall
Donaghmede
Swords
Sutton
PortmarnockGolf Club
PortmarnockGolf Club
St. AnnesGolf ClubSt. Anne’sGolf Club
St Anne’s ParkSt Anne’s Park
ClontarfBull
IslandBull
Island
Drumcondra
Beaumont
Whitehall
DonaghmedeClongriffinClongriffin
BALDOYLEBALDOYLE
Baigriffin
Swords
Sutton
Balgriffin
PortmarnockPortmarnock
MalahideMalahide
KinsealyKinsealy
ClondalkinClondalkin
PhoenixPark
PhoenixPark
DunsinkDunsink
GrangeCastle
Golf Club
GrangeCastle
Golf Club
NewlandsGolf ClubNewlandsGolf Club
Tallaght
Saggart
CitywestCitywest
Adamstown
Lucan
LiffeyValley
Ballymount
Carrickmines
KimmageKimmage
BluebellBluebell
Howth
Dublin Port
Castleknock
Ashtown
Castleknock
Ashtown
Dublin Port
Port Tunnel
Howth
Baldoyle offers unrivalled accessibility
with strong public transport links and
an established road network
* Please note the above timings are approximate only.
14 15
The VisionIn recent years, Baldoyle has transformed from a quiet seaside village into a popular residential location. The vision for Project Shoreline is to enhance this already thriving community with the development of over 50.77 hectares (125 acres).
Project Shoreline has the potential to offer approximately 1,600 homes in total with GA 1 already having planning permission for 546 residential units, however with detailed review this could be enhanced further, SPP.
In light of recent changes to the national planning policy, the purchaser will benefit from a significant opportunity to enhance the density of the existing planning permission whilst also developing GA 3, subject to planning permission. Two feasibility studies demonstrate the potential for an uplift in density on GA 1 to 710 units or 833 units. GA 3 benefits from a historic planning permission for 483 units setting a precedent for future development. A feasibility study for GA 3 demonstrates the potential for 759 units (SPP).
The scheme incorporates approximatively 27.95 hectares (69.06 acres) of high amenity lands which is intended to be transferred to Fingal County Council by the perspective developer. The lands will enhance the scheme by providing residents with landscaped parks and walkways creating a tranquil environment for the whole community.
The vision for Project Shoreline is to enhance this already thriving community with the development of over
50.77 hectares (125 acres)
16 17
Planning The subject lands fall under the Fingal Development Plan 2017 – 2023 and the Baldoyle Stapolin Local Area Plan 2013 – 2019 (LAP). Under the LAP, the lands are predominantly zoned ‘Residential’ with an area zoned ‘Village Centre’ and ‘High Amenity’. The LAP classifies the sites as Growth Area 1 (GA 1) and Growth Area 3 (GA 3).
GA 1 has full planning permission for 546 residential units and approximately 1,917 sq m (20, 635 sq ft) commercial accommodation. In addition to this, two feasibility studies demonstrate the potential uplift in density for residential dwellings following the change in planning guidelines.
In 2008, GA 3 was granted full planning permission for 483 residential units and a crèche. This planning permission has since expired but sets a precedent for future development.
As a result, a third feasibility study has been created to demonstrate the potential for a revised residential scheme for GA 3.
In addition to the above-mentioned areas, there is approximately 27.96 hectares (69.06 acres) which is zoned ‘High Amenity’. Under the LAP the lands are to be transferred to Fingal County Council allowing them to be taken in charge.
As part of the LAP, a school is required to support the proposed GA 1 development. The Receiver has arranged for a site to be designated for a public school on lands adjacent to the subject lands.
R E D A R C H E S R O A D
ST
AP
OL
I N A
VE
NU
E
LO
NG
FIE
LD
RO
AD
Figure 1: Baldoyle Stapolin Local Area Plan 2013 – 2019
Project Shoreline has the potential to offer approximately 1,600 homes in total SPP with
GA 1 already having planning permission for 546 residential units
GA 1GA 3
Ownership Boundary
Transport InfrastructureTo enhance the existing public transport provisions, the proposed development will incorporate additional bus routes linking to existing routes and Clongriffin DART Station. The proposed scheme also incorporates cycle pathways, two ‘green corridors’, Ireland’s Eye Avenue and Stapolin Avenue and primary roads, Longfield Road and Red Arches Road.
New Road Network
2 ‘Green’ Corridors
CyclePathways
ClongriffinDart Station
AdditionalBus Routes
GA1
GA3
GA3
18 19
New Apartment Guidelines Under the new planning guidelines, design standards for build to sell apartments and build to rent apartments have been revised, as demonstrated below which will allow for an increase in density of residential housing.
Build to Sell Build to Rent
12 apartments per core max No restriction on no. of apartments per core
Restrictions on studio & 1 beds No restriction on the mix of units
Majority of units to be 10% larger than the minimum Majority do not need to be 10% larger
50% of suburban to be dual aspect Dual aspect reduced to 33% close to public transport
1 car space per unit & 1 visitor space for every 3-4 units Minimal car parking requirements near public transport
1 bike space per bed space & 1 visitor bike space for every 2 units
1 bike space per bed space & 1 visitor bike space for every 2 units
Minimum Apartment Size
Type Studio 1 bed 2 bed(3 people)
2 bed(4 people)
3 bed
Size 37 sq m 45 sq m 63 sq m 73 sq m 90 sq m
New Height Guidelines
In order to assist with increased density, new Government policy also outlines a desire for increased building heights in appropriate urban locations.
Summary
GA 1 Planning
Permission
GA 1 Feasibility
Study 1
GA 1 Feasibility
Study 2
GA 3 Expired
Planning Permission
GA 3 Feasibility
Study 3
Apartments & Duplex Units 385 557 680 376 681
Houses 161 153 153 107 78
TOTAL 546 710 833 483 759
Following the revised design guidelines, there is the potential to further increase the densities by building on the what is outlined in the feasibility studies (S.P.P) with increased building heights and reconfiguration of block layouts.
20 21
Zone Description Consented Height
A Village Centre comprising ground floor retail units, apartments and main link to Clongriffin DART Station 6 storeys
B Primary open space area known as Stapolin Haggard with a mix of residential housing and apartments 4 storeys
C Residential units comprising of apartments and houses and a central park 3 storeys
D 3-4 bed semi-detached houses 2 storeys
Growth Area 1Existing Planning Permission
GA 1 has a full grant of planning (reference no. F16A/0412) for the development of a high-end mixed-use scheme. The proposed scheme comprises 546 residential units and a village centre with high amenity lands. The final grant was permitted in November 2017 by An Bord Pleanala for 10 years.
Under the planning permission, Henry J. Lyons designed a scheme that is subdivided into zones A, B, C and D comprising of the following elements:
The proposed scheme comprises 546 residential units and a village centre with high amenity lands
The proposed scheme offers a range of housing options catering for a variety of people and households, coupled with local amenities and outdoor space. The residential element includes 1, 2 and 3 bed apartments, 2 bed duplex apartments and 3 and 4 bed houses. The commercial element has been designed to create a vibrant neighbourhood centre incorporating a range of retailers including a café, convenience store and crèche.
As part of the planning permission, interim boundary treatments were indicated to the back of the footpath along the route referred to as Stapolin Way. These flank the open space area referred to as the Haggard until such time as Growth Area 2 is delivered. A strip of this area, as indicated on the plan in Figure 1, is not within the control of the Receiver. It is noted that the permitted carriageway
and footpath do remain within the control of the Receiver. In this regard, Conditions 3 and 6 attached to the planning permission require detail design of footpaths, carriageways, and boundary treatments to be agreed with the planning authority prior to commencement of development. In the event that the prospective purchaser should wish to implement the planning permission, we are advised by RPS Group that an alternative treatment along this boundary can be proposed through a compliance submission for agreement with the planning authority. Alternatively, in the event a prospective purchaser should wish to materially amend another element of the planning permission as approved, appropriate treatments to this boundary could also be included as part of an amended planning application.
growth area 1
22 23
Zone A
Zone B
Zone C
Zone D
Accommodation ScheduleExisting Planning Permission
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units Size (sq m) Size (sq ft )
A
Apartment 1 5 - -
Apartment 2 162 - -
Apartment 3 28 - -
Convenience - - 461 4,962
Retail 1 (Café) - - 200 2,153
Retail 2 - - 88 947
Retail 3 - - 99 1,066
Retail 4 - - 99 1,066
Retail 5 - - 90 969
Crèche - - 880 9,472
Sub Total 195 1,917 20,635
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units
B
Apartment 1 7
Apartment 2 69
Apartment 3 4
Apartment (own door) 2 16
Duplex 2 20
House 3 23
House 4 25
Sub Total 164
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units
C
Apartment (own door) 1 8
Apartment (own door) 2 24
Duplex 2 42
House 3 58
House 4 43
Sub Total 175
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units
D House 3 12
Sub Total 12
TYPE 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED
TOTAL 20 333 125 68
% Mix of Total 4% 61% 23% 12%
TOTAL APARTMENTS 323
TOTAL DUPLEX 62
TOTAL HOUSES 161
TOTAL NO. UNITS 546
CO
AS
T R
OA
D
RED ARCHES RD
CLONGRIFFINDART
STATION
GA1
GA1 Location
24 25
34.0 M2
Kitchen / Living
15.9 M2
Double Bed
11.5 M2
Twin Bed
3.4 M2
St.
1.3 M2
St.
3.7 M2
St.8500
6000
2800
4366
2800
4100 1200
5400
1500
Reference: 2b.t1aQuantity: 8Unit Type: 2 Bed / 4 Person ApartmentArea: 88.6 SqmStorage: 8.5 Sqm
Type: 2b.t1a
Block:
Unit No:
Ref Ga
Ref Ga
15.9 M2
Twin Room
11.5 M2
Double Bed
48.6 M2
Kitchen / Living
3.2 M2
St.
1.3 M2
St.
3.4 M2
St.
6852
2800
2800
5400
1200 4100
6000
8500
1500
Reference: 2b.t4Quantity: 15Unit Type: Large 2 Bed / 4 Person ApartmentArea: 102.6 SqmStorage: 7.9 Sqm
Type: 2b.t4
Block:
Unit No:
Ref Ga
Ref Ga
30.6 M2
Kitchen / Living
12.0 M2
Double Bed
13.6 M2
Twin Room
1.9 M2
St
3.2 M2
St.
1.3 M2
St.
0.6 M2
St
1500
1200
4000
8500
2825
3400
4000
3965
Reference: 2b.t3Quantity: 15Unit Type: 2 Bed / 4 Person ApartmentArea: 86.5 SqmStorage: 7.0 Sqm
Type: 2b.t3
Block:
Unit No:
Ref Ga
Ref Ga
12.2 M2
Double Bed
1.3 M2
St
1.3 M2
St
16.9 M2
Twin Bed
2.2 M2
St.
30.1 M2
Kitchen / Living
2.2 M2
St.
3575
1200
4550 1400
7200
3400
2800
1800
4100
Reference: 2b.t2Quantity: 40Unit Type: 2 Bed / 4 Person ApartmentArea: 87.5 SqmStorage: 7.0 Sqm
Type: 2b.t2
Block:
Unit No:
Ref Ga
Ref Ga
11.5m2Double Bed
30.0m2Kitchen / Living
15.9m2Twin Bed
3.4m2
St.
1.3m2St.
3.2m2St.
2800
8500
6000
4100 1200
5400
1500
3900
2800
Reference: 2b.t1Quantity: 84Unit Type: 2 Bed / 4 Person ApartmentArea: 84.0 SqmStorage: 7.9 Sqm
Type: 2b.t1
Block:
Unit No:
Ref Ga
Ref Ga
2 Bed Apartments
30.0 m2Kitchen / Living
13.2 m2Double Bed
1.3 m2St
3.2 m2St
1650
8500
1200
3900
6000
4000
3325
41.7m2Living/Dining
1.75m2Storage
WC
elec. meterUPC Eircon
0.92m2Storage
15.3m2Bedroom 1
11.6m2Bedroom 2
7.1m2Bedroom 3
1.68m2Storage
0.6m2Storage
0.99m2Storage
En Suite Bathroom
Growth Area 1Existing Planning Permission Sample Floorplans
Apartment - 2 Bed
Apartment - 1 Bed
Two Storey House - 3 Bed
Ground Floor First Floor
30.5 m2Living/ Dining
11.47m2Bedroom 2
3.35 m2Storage
WC
13.06m2Bedroom 1
1.23 m2Storage
1.43 m2Storage
hp
3673
2150
3381 13031357
1051
2100
4148 2615
4744
5325
1896
1800
3710
1155
13.71 m2Bedroom 2
hp
2.26 m2Storage
Bathroom
0.78 m2Storage
18.4 m2Bedroom 1
3805
3602
1700
2915
2625
1400
4820 1950
En Suite
WC
35.96 m2Living/ Kitchen /Dining
2.04 m2Storage
8418
3651
5605
1500
1550
4386
3119
0.96 m2Storage
Terrace Area31.23m2
625
Duplex Apartment - 2 Bed
First Floor Second Floor
GA 1 Planning application boundary
Proposed sitepLan
26 27
Feasibility study 1 incorporates 710 residential units equating to an increase of 164 units when compared to the planning permission. This has been achieved by designing narrower blocks whilst retaining the consented block heights and the removal of 8 houses.
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units Size (sq m) Size (sq ft)
A
Apartment 1 134 - -
Apartment 2 90 - -
Apartment 3 25 - -
Convenience - - 461 4,962
Retail 1 (Café) - - 200 2,153
Retail 2 - - 88 947
Retail 3 - - 99 1,066
Retail 4 - - 99 1,066
Retail 5 - - 90 969
Crèche - - 880 9,472
Sub Total 249 1,917 20,635
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units
B
Apartment 1 91
Apartment 2 76
Apartment 3 15
Apartment (own door) 2 4
Duplex 2 8
House 3 21
House 4 23
Sub Total 238
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units
C
Apartment 1 32
Apartment 2 36
Apartment 3 6
Apartment (own door) 1 8
Apartment (own door) 2 8
Duplex 2 24
House 3 56
House 4 41
Sub Total 211
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units
D House 3 12
Sub Total 12
TYPE 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED
TOTAL 257 246 135 64
% Mix of Total 36% 35% 19% 9%
TOTAL APARTMENTS 525
TOTAL DUPLEX 32
TOTAL HOUSES 153
TOTAL NO. UNITS 710
GA 1 - Feasibility Study 1 Consented Height
Zone A
Zone B
Zone C
Zone D
5 Storey
4 Storey
3 Storey
28 29
The second feasibility study demonstrates the potential to increase the number of units again by adding 287 units to the consented design. This may be achieved with the addition of an extra floor to each block, having narrower blocks and the removal of 8 houses.
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units Size (sq m) Size (sq ft)
A
Apartment 1 162 - -
Apartment 2 108 - -
Apartment 3 30 - -
Convenience - - 461 4,962
Retail 1 (Café) - - 200 2,153
Retail 2 - - 88 947
Retail 3 - - 99 1,066
Retail 4 - - 99 1,066
Retail 5 - - 90 969
Crèche - - 880 9,472
Sub Total 300 1,917 20,635
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units
B
Apartment 1 115
Apartment 2 94
Apartment 3 19
Apartment (own door) 2 4
Duplex 2 8
House 3 21
House 4 23
Sub Total 284
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units
C
Apartment 1 44
Apartment 2 48
Apartment 3 8
Apartment (own door) 1 8
Apartment (own door) 2 8
Duplex 2 24
House 3 56
House 4 41
Sub Total 237
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units
D House 3 12
Sub Total 12
TYPE 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED
TOTAL 329 294 146 64
% Mix of Total 39% 35% 18% 8%
TOTAL APARTMENTS 648
TOTAL DUPLEX 32
TOTAL HOUSES 153
TOTAL NO. UNITS 833
GA 1 - Feasibility Study 2
Zone A
Zone B
Zone C
Zone D
6 Storey
5 Storey
4 Storey
3 Storey
Increased Building Height
30 31
Growth area 3
6 Storey
5 Storey
4 Storey
3 Storey
2 storey
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units
AApartment 2 137
Apartment 3 5
Sub Total 142
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units
ADuplex Apartment 1 60
Duplex Apartment 2 174
Sub Total 234
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units
A House 2 40
House 4 67
Sub Total 107
TYPE 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED
TOTAL 60 351 5 67
% Mix of Total 12% 73% 1% 14%
TOTAL APARTMENTS 142
TOTAL DUPLEX 234
TOTAL HOUSES 107
TOTAL NO. UNITS 483
Expired Planning Permission
In 2008, GA 3 was granted full planning permission for 483
residential units and a crèche
CO
AS
T R
OA
D
RED ARCHES RD
CLONGRIFFINDART
STATION
GA3
GA3 Location
32 33
Growth area 3
Zone A
Zone B
Zone C
Zone D
10 Storey
6 Storey
5 Storey
4 Storey
3 Storey
Feasibility Study 3 A feasibility study has been designed to demonstrate the potential to deliver 759 residential units comprising of apartments and houses divided between zones A-D within GA 3. The following sets out the accommodation schedule for GA 3.
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units Size (sq m) Size (sq ft)
A
Apartment 1 128 - -
Apartment 2 196 - -
Apartment 3 58 - -
Convenience - - 300 3,229
Retail 1 (Café) - - 200 2,153
Retail 2 - - 100 1,076
Retail 3 - - 100 1,076
Retail 4 - - 100 1,076
Retail 5 - - 100 1,076
Sub Total 382 900 9,688
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units
B
Apartment 1 20
Apartment 2 16
Apartment 3 8
House 3 24
House 4 33
Sub Total 101
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units Size (sq m) Size (sq ft)
C
Apartment 1 9 - -
Apartment 2 12 - -
Apartment 3 6 - -
House 3 11 - -
House 4 10 - -
Crèche - - 800 8,611
Sub Total 48 800 8,611
Zone Use Type Beds No. Units Size (sq m) Size (sq ft)
D
Apartment 1 104 - -
Apartment 2 58 - -
Apartment 3 66 - -
Convenience - - 1,800 19,375
Retail 1 (Café) - - 300 3,229
Retail 2 - - 200 2,153
Retail 3 - - 200 2,153
Retail 4 - - 200 2,153
Retail 5 - - 100 1,076
Retail 6 - - 100 1,076
Sub Total 228 2,900 31,216
TYPE 1 BED 2 BED 3 BED 4 BED
TOTAL 261 282 173 43
% Mix of Total 34% 37% 23% 6%
TOTAL APARTMENTS 681
TOTAL HOUSES 78
TOTAL NO. UNITS 759
34 35
ECONOMIC OVERVIEWIreland’s economy continues to perform especially well with output rising at one of the fastest rates within the EU. Underpinning this is the robust performance of the labour market. Employment is currently growing by 3.7% per annum – a solid rate of jobs growth by any historical or comparative standard. Unemployment has fallen to 4.8% and real aggregate disposable incomes are growing by 5.3% a year due to a combination of modest pay increases, further tax cuts and increased numbers at work. While the capacity remains for further jobs growth, Ireland’s labour resources are gradually being sweated more intensively; in addition to lower unemployment there has been an uptick in labour force participation, a decline in part time work and an increase in the average number of hours worked. All of this suggests that wage inflation is likely to strengthen, which should be supportive of the housing market.
Figure 1: Unemployment Rate
Housing Market
TransactionsResidential transactions rose by 4.5% nationally in Q1 2019. However, the pace of growth in new home sales outstripped that of second-hand properties, reflecting the increase in residential construction. A key driver of demand is demographic pressure, with Dublin’s population increasing by 2.0% compared to 1.5% for the rest of the country. As such, annual sales in Dublin have risen at a slightly faster rate than the country as a whole.
Supply, Demand and House Prices18,828 residential dwelling units were completed in the rolling 12 months to Q1 2019, up 23.2% year-on-year. Of these, 7,204 (38.3% of total output) were in Dublin. This compares to the capital’s current 28.3% share of the national population and 26.8% share of the housing stock, demonstrating that the focus of new development is on the capital. However, while residential supply is clearly increasing, it is not yet sufficient to meet demand. Having extensively analysed the key components of housing demand – namely population growth, average household size, obsolescence of existing stock and factoring in a level of compensation for a backlog of undersupply in recent years – Savills estimates an annual housebuilding requirement of around 35,000 units per annum out to 2022, with approximately 37% of this requirement in Dublin.
Comparing our current supply and demand estimates we envisage that the market, both nationally and in Dublin, will remain undersupplied until at least 2023. Consequently, competition for available properties remains in place with the net result being competitive bidding leading to price and rent inflation.
Figure 2: Housing Completions vs. Requirement - National
Nationally residential prices are rising by 3.9% per annum, while the rate of growth in the capital has come off a three-year high of 13.0.% in April 2018 to 1.2% currently. About 12.2% of this slowdown can be attributed to the base effect – as average prices rise, the same money value uplift naturally leads to smaller-and-smaller percentage increases. Mortgage restrictions have also contributed to the moderating inflation, particularly as loan-to-income ratios have become more binding. However, this factor should not be overplayed. In the starter home market in particular, cash investors (both individuals and institutions) are ready and willing to compete for properties that lending restrictions are preventing owner occupiers from buying. Indeed, it is notable that cash buyers still account for 54.3% of all residential transactions. A more cogent analysis therefore is that house price inflation in Dublin is primarily slowing due to a narrowing gap between supply and demand. As these supply and demand curves converge, the market will become better balanced and both price and rent inflation will ease. Given the current extent of undersupply however, we will continue to see house price inflation for the foreseeable future, albeit at a moderating rate. We are currently forecasting annual price growth of about 4-7% and 3-5% both nationally and in Dublin in 2019 and 2020 respectively.
Private Rented Sector (PRS)Demand for rented accommodation continues to be driven by the affordability challenges of home ownership. Despite an expansion in the overall stock of properties in Dublin’s PRS, vacancy has fallen to just 1.38% (Figure 3). This is significantly below the Natural Vacancy Rate (NVR) which Savills econometrically estimates to be 5.19% in the capital. Theory suggests that if the actual vacancy rate lies beneath the NRV the market is undersupplied and rents will be rising, and that is precisely what is happening.
Rents nationally are increasing by 6.9%, while the pace of growth in Dublin is higher at 7.8% despite being a designated Rent Pressure Zone (RPZ). Rental growth in properties that have not previously been let and those that have undergone substantial changes – both of which are exempted from the rent caps – would appear to explain why growth in the capital continues to exceed the regulated rate of 4.0% per annum. Looking ahead, Savills’ econometric model is predicting rental inflation in Dublin of around 6.5% and 4.6% in 2019 and 2020 respectively.
Figure 3: Vacancy Rate in Dublin’s Private Rented Sector
Ireland’s economy continues to perform especially well with output rising at one of the fastest rates within the EU.
2017
2018
2019
(f)
2020
(f)
2021
(f)
2022
(f)
1716151413121110
9876543
%
UN
ITS
10,000
5,000
0
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Source: CSO
Requirements Completions
2000
Q1
2001
Q1
2002
Q1
2003
Q1
2004
Q1
2005
Q1
2006
Q1
2007
Q1
2008
Q1
2009
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Q1
2016
Q1
2017
Q1
2018
Q1
2019
Q1
Sources: Savills Research, CSO
2017
2018
2019
(f)
2020
(f)
2021
(f)
2022
(f)
1716151413121110
9876543
%
UN
ITS
10,000
5,000
0
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Source: CSO
Requirements Completions
2000
Q1
2001
Q1
2002
Q1
2003
Q1
2004
Q1
2005
Q1
2006
Q1
2007
Q1
2008
Q1
2009
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Q1
2016
Q1
2017
Q1
2018
Q1
2019
Q1
Sources: Savills Research, CSO
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
%
Source: Savills Research, CSO, Daft.ie
2008
Q2
2008
Q4
2009
Q2
2009
Q4
2010
Q2
2010
Q4
2011
Q2
2011
Q4
2012
Q2
2012
Q4
2013
Q2
2013
Q4
2014
Q2
2014
Q4
2015
Q2
2015
Q4
2016
Q2
2016
Q4
2017
Q2
2017
Q4
2018
Q2
2018
Q4
Dublin VR Dublin NVR
36 37
Data RoomFurther information is attainable through a dedicated web based data room www.project-shoreline.com
SALES AGENTS
SOLICITORByrne Wallace88 Harcourt StreetSaint Kevin’s, Dublin 2
www.byrnewallace.com
Receivers
Savills Ireland the Vendor/Lessor give note that the particulars and information contained in this brochure do not form any part of any offer or contract and are for guidance only. The particulars, descriptions, dimensions, references to condition, permissions or licences for use or occupation, access and any other details, such as prices, rents or any other outgoings are for guidance only and are subject to change. Maps and plans are not to scale and measurements are approximate. Whilst care has been taken in the preparation of this brochure intending purchasers, Lessees or any third party should not rely on particulars and information contained in this brochure as statements of fact but must satisfy themselves as to the accuracy of details given to them. Neither Savills Ireland nor any of its employees have any authority to make or give any representation or warranty (express or implied) in relation to the property and neither Savills Ireland nor any of its employees nor the vendor or lessor shall be liable for any loss suffered by an intending purchaser/Lessees or any third party arising from the particulars or information contained in this brochure. Prices quoted are exclusive of VAT (unless otherwise stated) and all negotiations are conducted on the basis that the purchasers/lessees shall be liable for any VAT arising on the transaction. This brochure is issued by Savills Ireland on the understanding that any negotiations relating to the property are conducted through it. All maps produced by permission of the Ordnance Survey Ireland Licence No AU 001799 © Government of Ireland. Designed and produced by Creativeworld Tel +353 1 447 0553
John SwarbriggDirectorDevelopment+3531 618 1333john.swarbrigg@savills.ie
Ebba MowatAssociate Development+353 1 618 1413ebba.mowat@savills.ie
Anneliese CharlesworthSurveyorDevelopment+353 1 618 1375anneliese.charlesworth@savills.ie
Savills33 Molesworth StreetDublin 2, Ireland
www.savills.iePSRA - 002233
MazarsBlock 3 Harcourt CentreHarcourt RoadDublin 2
Alison O’Sullivan +353 1 691 5632aosullivan@byrnewallace.com
TitleA title summary is available in the property data room.
ViewingsViewings strictly by appointment and to be arranged with the sole selling agent.
Clongriffin DART Station
Portmarnock Golf Club
Baldoyle
Tom O’Brien of Mazars
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