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- 47-
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~.~~*~~'.~*~E~~~'ft~~~*~~~ ••~~*$~'~~~~~*~~~'~~~~.. m~~~~~~~~~~~m~'~W~*~~~ft'~~m~*~~~'m.~~~~ffi.~~.~mS~~'~*~m.
:l:B ~ii EP • f9t1tm~~ 72 if:lfi:lt34iA~ ~if: i'M~:I: 44.16 j;;;ff ' i'3:m~~ 50if:lfi:1t3 4iA~~ if: ifUf:l: 16 j;;;ri~ 2.B fg 0ii' I'let ~tJ!~~ .Uro*IJJ,~ tHt~... ~ .. ~~~~~~,~~~~~~,*~~§~§~o
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Santa Gertrudis ) .. si1ij~ ( Hereford) :&'li:f1t:Jtli ( Angus ) ~~~j§~il'
iIt~~~M!~~~ , :{EiBl:Jffje1JM.W!i!l}]r, il'iIt~tf.~~~~ 62if:~ 63if:OO~MB*n,~~~~0&~~~63if:~~~~~l$m~'~~~f1t*~
1:~' F<iJ~iIljfflllSl3t~1j!Wje:l:JI*~tf ' ~~F1it~1rIYiJ~1§~t!tJi!~IR~. ':(E~~~m~r'~Jff:mlfi.~~~~~~63if:~~*§ffi~otf~'~OO~
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11 ~IG ' ii~~~ 73 if:~ 24,069 0~ , F<iJ~I1.Jrd]tf~ §M$ffi 99. 9 %~~21.2
%0~UfJitl:*~~~.~m.~~~i&.' tt-~if:m.:I:~~if:jjEPB'iJ.~ , ~
~ 51 if:~ 72if:4iAmif:ZF:It3tf~m.nX;:IJt.¥7:m 5.50 % ' F<iJM~~~Z~~
**xm~~m±~x'~~~W~lli~~&Zm~o
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( 1 )
- 48-
• 4.19 %~~ , mA1J::lfj~Jlt-~m.:I:~~~ 72 if:*3~ 1.60 1}fT 0 :tE~~ 501J::~ , ZfS:l!J4'iAtj::~1J::m.:I:*3~O.571}fT ' If:I!J1J::f1(;*${l~2.63 % ' ~~
$~~~~~m.:I:~~*$~~~'~ffl~2m~'~~:tE~M~~~~~~
fi~l¥g**, 0 {§~~~ 60 if:~' ZP:~4iA~~if:m.:I:.lj1JQ~ 0.82 1}fT ' zP::l!Jif:~*$i$i~ 6.45 % ' :tE.Ri~ 64 if: E8~fH:lt& EHEJi p ~ ~l¥gti~ , ~if:ZP~mAif:~~m.:I:~ 0.94 j;;fT ' ltWJ-if:(j'g~Jj1JQ 2.4 ill' W{~lf~4iAlf~1J::m.:I:~1f~fI:!i~jj:( available supply) 8$)~.~* ; 5.1i=:if:* ' ZP:~W;A~~m.:I:*3~ 1.41 1}fT' lf~1J::f1(;*$~13.59 % ' ~_~lf1LZP:~~*$
'z1:: 0
;il[if:*E8~~*~~~~'~f1(;&m~*l¥gM&~~~~~M~'W~~~
~EB_fF~"o fH.~EB_{'fA1fiIT:If' ¥~~ 78 if:_{'frnJ.*~¥ 126,500j;;f:Ji ;:pt~ , 1JQilml~UiiJi*WH~.ft:if'jJK, il'Mj;;rfjBntf:l~~~JI ' 74 --75~M~M~§.~E873if:'z65~~*~~53~~*'~~MfFrnJ.5.1i-~
j;;1:fi 0 fll{4-B.~~~Wt~ , fiJ~,*{'f(j'g.~&It~I~)f'~ , £!~:¥U~~!Htfr~mfF~m~~.,m~~m~~mrnJ~,*fF~~mo~~$~-~m,&~~.
~~*6.w.v~~iUtB1f~tI1Jtl ' .7j1f~iilM~,*{'f~flm~M~~t<Hlrt:J4- 'pHft~ IN rt:J 4-$~ 0
~~.JNil'Mrt:Jl:f:$~ , ~tmttr~~.~ ml*Orville L. Freeman m~ : 1£fffiiJ15~~:i:Ettr ' ~~RJfi11:~m~m~~if~ll!~~ftrJj , ~~l¥glHlf*~tlD.~
*'z~~o~'z*lHlg.rt:Jtf::$~~~15rnJ~~~~~'~~~~~W*BfF~
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~~~~il'.l:f:~~~'z~~~~IHl*fF~-$~~~o
=.. jf~1J~~*if~15$±~~~~~~~~.~~mm~~'~~~.l:f:~~~~*M
~~~~~~~~8$)~~Nf*,~~jj:~~~15$~li~.4-~~w~~~~,
~~.~~ ( simulation analysis ) :1J$lkUf~~~~c~1!l ( goodness ), @m~:l!I!15$jjllj:i:Ejt.:i:Ett ( stability ) 0
( 2 )
- 49 -
;;f;;:1iff9"G :5tffTffl ;:Jlffl tJ';Jft*4 ' ~ ~cif;;f;;:ffl~~L I #.llt4:*~L1i!f9"G J iITiI~fl~~ffi~ft~*4~'~~~~~~'~~~'fi~~±~~&#_~~~&
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fl~#_4:~~~~~'4:~~~*~&~~~~~~~~~~L~~ft*4
,tEB;JrFl'~7Uffl~2~~~I'J9::g~EX:N~If:g-~ , {7tJt4l#Jlilj~.~IUI~fnL I #iJltllllJiltif.~ J ' ~ ffl4:' ~ ffl4:~ft ffl4: L f<JJ llt!jJH!~:~ nf*~~Z ~2« Il~Vf fqj ,fqjB;J~~~fnZI#i••~.~.~A~Jffl~~Z~~ftMm*~:5t~ffl4:'
~ffl4:~~ffl4:,~~~~m~Z~li~~*~L~~'~~~~~~~~~~
Z#~~,~~ftft~~~~flft~L~~~~~,~~~~m~~liZ~~o
~~~~~~~§~~#~~.~tttJ';J~.'~L'~~.~~~~~~~
1f~;f§fl'U 0 Labys {&~I:t'tJlffqj a~~~1,*# ' lm~I:t'tJ ~#l(~fIJ:5t~IZ9~ : OHIH1U11~~I'l~~~ (regular supply) ,t/[J4:$L ; (2)4lf~#l(~~iJJl'J9~I=l'tJ ( annualsupply ) '.::E*' #fin; ; (3)1Z9~#l(~tJ';J~~ (perennial supply), t/[J~~
; (4)f1§~#l(~~~M (cyclial supply)' t/[J~ , 4: 0 ~tfLabYs 1'J9:5t~RJ9;DL:j::
~&j#l(~JIj~1Jl'j~~~ 0 AJt.!f!.ffi~ijJj;§JjmHi~~~-ffi~ Ezekiel ( 1938 ) ffl~1±l
~~m~ffijij ( cobweb theorem ) 0 ~W~Nerlove ( 1958) 'Harlow(l962
) 1*. Waugh ( 1946) ~Afm1tf~lEf~' ~.ffltt~~~JE ; ~:f!H®1l11I'J9IH~(recursive system ) , tEit'F~.~tit1N~:5tffT' ~~~t:liJli~i!&J!jtiiJ~g~~.
,~1*.~~®~~~iJJ~f1§m~9"G~'B~~~~~ffl,~B;J~~~~~~~1'J9
1l.-Wif.~ ( ff=) 0 ~ffl~m~ffijij , ffl~:lz:I't>}~1l~m~ (recursive model
) , ~{;ll;fJ{~~~il!:tEB;JrFlH'!l~~f1§mJ!lIJl'J9~ffijij$fIJ ' i11li~~£¥~*it1:~ ,
*il!:1:~~n1t~1J{~, ~1J{~;:JI~~£~~\' ~~~M~\'Jit:~~J:~ 0 ~m~
~il!:rFl'Mn1t-f)i~jiIHiUJtI'J9IUlf* (causal chain relationship) 0 fllUl~m
m~I'J9W~iiJ1rTi~~1i'-l1i : (l)1Jl~ik:JE~7t~~~m~~" ' 1:~~~" ~ml'J9
ft:!~~ " ( pr ice taker), (2)~~±~ik:JE~tlimM~#1;~*~;(3)1:~gf.
±~~~~M~~ ; (4)1:~Nl!~~\rijl ( lag) -:100 ; (5)1lj(1:~ ( actual
production ) ~~~tiI~~ (planned production) ; J1tf)im~I'J9W~AJt~
m~£~~~*£~~~a~~(~~)o
( 3 )
- 50-
ft.~~~~*~~=:~o~~~~~~~,~o~~~.~~.m~
J!~~1R~oi51:~jllm~.tF~m~, lU~:)tMlf.HHtl!. (exogenous var i
abIes) • ~Jltft• .tF~~~It:~H:S.lU~j;F~·~.tF~Z#H/U~~tt, $W~O
~~~~~~~~~~~*~'~W~O.tF~~••~~m*~.~~.tF~~1lm,~w~.~~~~~~~o
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~••m.~~~~~.~'~~~~~1lm~~~~m.~~••n~~~*IN:~ , mJ~~••iI#I;t€tjll1:.~jft1JO0 ?e~~~~~~{t1it6~lImOO~:eHHE__f!1111f*? ~1JUtl*m 0 (1)~.itBlI:4:.fa14p~~ , fftJtml3'!<~ 73 if:.~;Jfli._
p·~~~~~~.P~~~.~(~fi~~)$~~·~Jlt~itBm~~m~~
m-1M£ft1tm~' fi.p~1Jm~~~; (2)~ft-ftll*~tl~lf4:~~m~
m.m~,mm-4:~.m-*~.~~~~.,mtl~M~~~4:~.~#M.~
%~ • 'l'M~.tF~#I;Mt~~~.tE~.;y~~~ , @U#M1J~~~~fi11iMB'iJ#I;t6; (3)'I'WJ1Jml!lIJ~ • ~.tF{t~~tt:geiWl~:)t1:.~fft.B'iJ~f!ili~ttm~J!~ (replacement) 1f.ll! ' ~~.fJfw.v~jt~~ii!t. ' i~(iiJ~~.tF{t~~~{t~m-.~~~'I'WlB'iJ1lm ; (4)'I'~.tF1:.~~~~"H1~1:.~fftM ' ~'!f4:f!~~*tEB'iJ~•• ~~.tF.~~OO~~+M~,~§ili~~ili~~~~~~A.~OO,~:)t~
~~~~~-WJ(~-1f.);~mm-~.m-.~B'iJ~AIIJ~,jt~~~~~~.
4I:fN/j, • ~mWltl"1:.il:.jll~.~il::I:.*fI~ ; tf,-B-J:~1iJ[;8~~~4:~~~M~lI~OOA~~f!1H~'~~*x~~~~~~~~=+1f.~~W~OO.
~.fl,~.tFB'iJ{t~~tt.1iJ~~~~~WJOO~~~~~~Mt~.~m~~.~
I!C itttmJ 0
~lJIft.~~~m~ft*ii!i., IlJtllll-ffJ!jfg-~~iiftM •~MU~~~~~~t6~~m~'!f*~~~tEHf*B'iJ~.~·~'!f:)t~~~~I!.B'iJ~.'~
~.tF~~t6J1:B'iJ~.±J!~~~4:!Ulfiiljl~., ~fij;.tF4ti.ua{i~-~/j,.tF. ffl
tl.tF~~.~~.~~~fij;~~A.ii!t.'fiil.fij;4:~~.~A~*(~Afl~
~)~~~~~(tm~itBm*.tF.m)~~*·mJ~.tF.A.~~.~fij;~~.
~.~'!fJljM-tfi!1J!filmB'iJ~.' ~JUt.Mit~"1iffi ; !j3-::1JiID • ~~4:~ft9~~.m~~m-~~~A~il:~~~~~~.~~~~A~o.tF~~~~MJ1:'
~o4:l*;J1J(~, f1ft~1Jl~ (tmiM~lI~) ~ft*i'I11.~•• n~iitt*~**ll'
B'iJZfi~fiAIlJ50fjijj'f4~~~; ~~. ~~1Jl~)1H~lI.It*Jg~jfum~B'iJS!$
Citt.=: J .Tomek, W.G. and K.L. Robinson, Agricultural Product Prices, Cornell University Press, 1972, Ch. 9.
(itttIY) : Waugh ( 1964 ) lm~~~.~~jI~i±:l ( lagged output)~.'
m~~.~fl~(price) iii., ~~~~~ll_~m.~~M:H~0
( 4 )
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*iEill~ftHJf~Zpg , ~p J;,( Ri~ru9.;s 5t ' ?F1i!;iU:! fl:t'G fJUiHH t!iIi '* ' j:j tu~ fI'j
~~~~m.o~~§fiM.~ ••~,~«~~~J;,(••~~,~~J;,(mft~*t~J~, :(£§ij(J~tfu~~¥4ff(mJ::~IU4(~~,*I1'1fi~~~Jif,)~~~,IJ\~~,*
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1i.'fJCZC{=i 0 mJ"i¥$L~lj::Z~~~fr!'! (salavage value ) 1.lI~iI.:~n!'*lf:~m
J::~ rm~tm; Fari s ( 1960) .lli$L m:lj::ID:~~~1f-~~~JE~'&'itlH!¥!&tac~~~
W}B9W:Jtfj.~EI9~mf@( amortized present value) , ;llft3t$~Jm~ , )j$}~
*~~mij::~ ; X Smith ( 19'73) :ff~£}:lf~~f'Jl~I'B~jjtfftg~ep, jIHilEfW}ii}!M!&tac ( variable returns) §-I\5~~jt~tJ{@[,:fL~lj::~~~~(@:.&I±\~+
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, rnJ!t'iiJ%J!Bftm4:!l~il~.&.t±l~/j'~~fif&~itl1J~, :ffmfl~tt~~#l' (E!P
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~lf.~;fJ~tJI;~.~~~,~~~j$}tiAll~lf.~;fJ~tJI;~:I:'~~*~~;
(~~~All~lf.~;fJ~~~-=), ~ (llfftl.'tllf.:D~:I:),
gg " ~';l:*IlJ~1i1J(~liJ.
t10~~fi}All~~;fJ~tJI;~:I:~~~PJf3Ilj;, ~MlI~lf.~#Ii~.~~M~
~~m.'~~~~~-Mm~I¥9j$}~~m'~ll~lf.~~*:I:~~#Ii~.'ffi
~~~~Mll~lf.~~*.~~~~Mllfft~~#Ii~:I:'X~Mll~~~~~.
~.Jt~~ 'Wftt ~Mllfftlf.~~~.l:iiJmU~j\:;~.Jk ( predeterminedvariable ) 0 tlH~m*J:!l!~ , ~~M~j$}~All~lf.~'"~tJI;~.!i:bO ' ~~~Mll~~~~1~Hr(ml'~ ; RZ, 5{U~~'i'WHi~,*~~~fj(mJ:.lJi0
~D,*~~j$}~~fj(m£~~~~m~,*~m~,~~.~~mw~,~~
M~~*,~~.~ft~~m~~~~m;~~~D~~~.I¥9~*'~~~§
ffi~DI¥9~~l',£~~~~m~~~m~Z~.~m~~D~~m~~*.1¥9
~~'W~oo-M(t-lM)~m~~~m~nA'tttJl;lJ!mtMffl~'~~
mtM~~iiJ~~~~~Jko~~~D~PJfn.~~Dlf.~•• ,~~mt-l
M~~I¥9fj(m*.mz,~~~.~mtM~~mmI~~I¥9.Jko
~.~1!E~tJF,ll~D~~~~fIljZn1Jt$5{U' tt~~Ji(;*mnfj(j;~ , ffltt~
D~~~~fj(m~~D'*~~~~~1Jtm~H&~~.'~D,*~mll~,*~
1¥9~~~'~~Dlf.~~j$}~~fj(m~H&.~~'~RIJ!~~D~~~~1Jtm
,~W~'ll~lf.~~~1Jtmo~~~Dlf.~Jk:l:~~~~~mz~.,-~W
~,~m~Dlf.~••Mm~lf.~m~Z~~.~~'fflttm~~Dlf.~#Ii~:I:~~~~~.~~l¥9m.'~~'.M.~m~D~mMOO~.~~ffl~'@.
~*ft*flJiMl¥9~DflIjWii' ~f!URM~~m.~~I¥9I!*~~' 1l0Gli~Dlf.~
~~fIlj~~A~*Zn~rr~'~~~~Dlf.~~g~m±~~~~~~~~~
fJ(m~N&'W~~~DJk.I¥9~.~~o~W~*~~MOOM~~~I¥9-M~
IJIfm. ' 130 ti~~~{;I{;fit:l:~ ~1l65 ~ 661f::?1- ' 1f::#!i~.*j<].t;f~ 6,000 ~IGLi.:t1, ~D~~JUUlUffi~1l631f::1¥91,251 ~1G!i~~m 731f:: 24,069 ~.(~m641f::Z~D:I:~?I-)'~~~1l~lf.~~~.m~~~~ffL~Z~M
~~1J(mffi 157.0 j[;J:.jIJ~ 272.8 j[; , Wlfl'J'{1Jlmffi 290. 7j[;~m 262.3 j[; , ~~~D~~~~iIlm~j$}~~ffz~M.~1Jlmffi !13.10 Jtift~ 158.3 j[; , W1tf{fJ(t§ ffi 209.4 j[;~ 152.2 j[; ; t1iJ:!l!W~ , ~ D,*~~.~ll~~~tJI;lJ!z~
( 9 )
- 56 -
,@, i'fUf~*.«iJ1J'l.~c:rlf~, jIjB~~c:rlf~fJ{Ji;;:::)j1JQ''&'1lJm/J\1tlil:lf~~
~c:rlf~Z.~,mm~OOffl~.~.*,~~~~m~,m~~~~_~~'&'
WH~~~m:~fttlU'{flm W~i1ii :ti1Jn ' ~ , :ft1JlJ RJ1ft~ ~: m~~ 0 If~ ~:I::ti
110' ~IU~1J'l.lf~~!i..' tltmA~3tif~.~~(G~Ji:lf~ , ll~mRimf4~~,mAm~ll~~n~M~Ji:lf~~~~~m'~~~~il:lf~~~Dlf~z
iJ(~1Jn*, ?JUP:(E*if1GMrdl~Dlf~fJ{:I::tj1l0 ' RJ~sl~~Ji:lf~~~iJ(~~~o
~~'~.~Ji:lf~~~~m~,~~~~~«ft~(~~)~~~~A1lJ
~fflmf4o~~~~,~1ft~ill~Ji:lf~~~~~~.'RJ~~~:
( ~Ji:lf~~~ ~~). =F fc ~~~A~Ji:lf~~~~~JD. , (~~~A~olf~~:if{M:I:), Jl(~Olf~~~~J}¥1Ilm~lUlmZ~!J), ,Cf!l'ft~~m)" (~A~~mm~),
1i" ~lijI~*lIiti
'&'~Ji:lf~m~Z~MJm*c primary demand ) :lfjt1JQ~ , ~sl~tiil:lf
~1JH~J::~ '®1;P:~~nx;*If:J!~J!iJJ1'*' ~~iY5~:lfjt1JU~ffJ~, ~WJjJi::ttB
m~l'tilm*±ilIn '~~~~~m~mm, PJf~~~m~m*z:ti1Jn, ~~fZiI::ttB
m~Zm>J<±i:tm, I!Osl$m*C derived demand) :lfjt1JU, sl$m>J<±i1Jn(G*'6*
, ~~iI::ttB~*lfiJ(m~~ 0 fNHIU::illt ' 1lJ1ft~illS!$m*~~ , ~~*~~ :
~ EEsl $m*~.J{ijKitiWH)]fl1;lfm. ~~~. ' :PH!~ti Ji:lf~~~~fJ{ ,
~~.A~il:lf~~:if{~M.~.~'~il:lf~~.~m~.'~1lJ~rom~~
.lf~~m~*zfJJ~~i1!fm~o
~,~~~~~~~~~~Z~~~#
- " @;'Hl~Jl.1t
fN.~~Z~.~*'1lJ~ll~.lf~~~~~~,m*~W:ttB*~~.
lf~~m~*l'tiliJJ~~~m~,:(E~.~ll-M~~~I'til~~~~om~~m~
~l'tilm~~~~.'~~J::illt~~fJ{H*~m~~~'~~~~63~~~~lf
~§EE~O' ~nx;tERi~64' 65~66 ~=~zWlWi:\1:lfmlt~~il:lf~~~:I:
(GfM~~.' tEJlt~~~l;;t1!lUIU'fJ{ ( dummy variable) ~~Z o3(Ji::!'l£/'ff$
( 10 )
- 57 -
tf-1Jm';t~~~il&~IJU!!tz ' ~P~~~JlJil&mj&mt¥9~.fflj~:~U'tz ' $[ii::ttB~*tf-ilmt¥951$~*ililtlHlffi' ~m-m~t:p~tl~ t ~WiI:ttB~*!f1Jt1JJi'!~
m-M~~'*~tz~~ilitz'®~m~lit¥9~~m~~m~w~~~~~m~o~
~,~m~t:pm~t¥9~~~tz'~.~~~~~AflM~~nt¥9~~~tz,m
)f'mgft¥9fi§~, ~~~@.tzmfi§~fif1t~l!iij~IFFlI~ ( stochastic dis-
turbance ) 0 **it l:lllli' il'Mtf-FftJf;Jl;~~~m~t¥9~--+~m~~tml':HM~re:tj::~lt#li~~
eN, = {310+ {3l1 CN'-1+ s;(~;;::: )+ {311 M'-t + (:3/< D+ ut •.... ( 4 . 1 . 1~ )
ATBQ, = TBQ,/POp, ( 4.1 . 3 ~ )
TBRP, ={3<o +{3.tAT BQ,+{3" AIBQ, + (3••ACF,+{3.. PRP, +P'••DPI, +u,
.......................................................................... ( 4.1.4~)
~~m~~~lt8'i1}E~:
l.P3j:~lt
c~ :.taM~~tf-.lt(~.)o
TBQ, :. t a~iItf-~f;Jl;~ii (:6~) 0
ATBQ, :. t Mzp.:tf3-w:A~iItf-~fl~f;Jl;~ii (0JT / A) 0
TBRP, :. t M~ .!I:4:~~t§fjfm ( 5t / 0 JT) 0
2.~1:.lt
SBP'_2MFP,_2
M,
SR,
POP,
AIBQ,
:.t-2M~~~*tf-~m(5t/M)~~~fjfm(5t/:6JT
)z.!t°: • t Wl~~{f:; =fIt~~~~51~il'ltkzfIJ (ail') 0
.• tM~iI'*~~~~- (.tMtf- ~.lt)• -( t tj:: ft••lt)
: • t M~ A. Dltk ( f- A. ) 0
:.tazp.:tf3-w:A~Dtf-~fl~f;Jl;~ii(0JT/A)o
( 11 )
-58-
ACF,
PRP,
DPI,
D
Ui
: m t MjlD tj=.~Zf-~1i1}ffJlJ~1l;j§~H&U:o(3C/1}ff)o:mtMa~L~~~1l;j§(1}ff/3C)o
:mtMZf-~~A~~fflm~(~JC/A)o
: •••• 0 tE*if~Mrdj~1J 64 .. 65:&66 ~'=:1j::zD~ 1 •;lt~~~~~o
:liI• .:rfl~: i=l .2.4 0
a~~~~~zM~M(~zp.~.)".A.~#•• ·~~~.:r~~
~ • f9lJ14JM~mt£~ ...AU-lI-m-.K:&#••t£~ 0 ~~~~rflZUI1-tit
L~zli~ • j{U~f:I~Ji~~F~.~i9]lJ.~~~ ( non - stochastic linearmodel) • ~~~t£14J1'~~.l5fl:it 0
AY,+BY'-i+C Z, =0, u,-(0,a2 I) ( 4.2:it)
:itrfl:At£.M(mtM)~~••~~~~·Bt£~~(t-lM)~~.
~~.~•• C t£M-~••~~.~~ 0 Y" Y.o 1 • Z, 5t~U~jf>'I'M~~•• (.i]
:1:" ~iI~~•• (.i]:I: 0 'l'ftf:lU.M~~••f*ftfi$~· ~R~:UtVF7U14J
1':
1 0 0 0 CN.
-flZl 1 0 0 TBQ,A= 1 Y,=
0 -pop, 1 0 ATBQ.
0 0 -(3.1 1 4 X4 , TBRP, 4Xl
A~.~3;.!fP.i~f*.:l$Jt£1 • l1~F~~JC* ( element ) :l$JtE3;.!fP.i~~tr:1'
15 ' ~1$t-1I Subt r ia ngl e Matrix • ;lt~it~1lM:U~~o(ll: • i'i!l:~I?:JJ::tE
J1tfW~:iL~'EJ'lIttj=.~11t;~~tl!fm~.~~1ltE~~ ,;lt~l5fl:itz~. c e; )RJtlfflft/J\Zf-l57* (OLS) )j(f.io
=.. f!••~zJg:tH.fl.J.!I!:&;lt*~
'EJ'lIttj=.~11t;~~~~~~m.~~m~~J.!I!~~:iL~~~.M-,~m~RJ~
~tifl*1JQ~1i!iift~d:&.mU~iEjJJ1t0 ittifl-m-~ ;It*m 1W~t£1i!i?1{IJ
zl5~·~~~.:rZ*J.!I!o~~.flz.J.!I!:&;lt*~·~jf>~m~.=:oX~MW
~tj=.~.11t;~~.rfl·~~~$tj=.~;j§~~fl1l;j§~,~~~M,i'i!l:tE*if~M
( 12 )
- 59-
rdJ ( A'i1ill54 1f.~ 731f. ) :fl~Z3::jI!Pi~.ltB1J.~H~. ~A'i1B 561f.~ 731f.B1J
+J\1I.~llo
(::)7.1I1J :IE16*~~:fl~z&~W~B1JMIt,~~~It~~~fizo~~Q~~~$~:lEk6
* ' ?1J~:1R~O ~~3 °
~ ~ • It ~JiriMIt fjlM~!iJl t fU • ~
it lie: ~ ( s., ) 1.29370 (6 ) 2.32·· R' = 0.987-
M:mffl:LFimlt (CN,_I) 0.70995 ( + ) 9.27"· R' = 0.983
(l!M$tj:.1Jtm~ .( SBP,_.) 0.10137 (+ ) 1.81· F., la =247.18···fiiJ f.>j. 1R m •..,. MFP ,-a
Ii ~ it (M, _, ) -0.09185 ( - ) -5.96··· D.W. = 1.32
tJl Ie • It ( D ) 0.15465 ( 6 ) 6.96··· D.F.= 13.00
~:fjlM~~~~~MMIt~~~ltHM~~~mfjlMB1J~!iJlo
(6)~~W:IE°(+)~~ttB1Jo(-)~~~B1Jo
Fvi vvs
D.W.D.F.
******
:mlifilMlto: mlHl.lt~ttB1J~J:lEMIt 0
:£tififtfi:l: o: £ F ififtfiit 0 VI , V2 ?t~Ij~?tT .. ?tffl:Z § ~1.ft 0
: ~Durbin Watson ~fi:l: 0
:~tififtfi:l:§~1.fto
:£tll~FfU~I%~.~*~~,~m~o
:£tll~Fll~5%B1Jm~*~~,.~o
: £ t -OO:~FOO:~ 10 %B1Jm.*~~ , m~ °
~ ~ • It m••• mM~!iJl t 11 • ~
it lie: ~ (B 20 ) 7.61850 ( 6 ) 9.82"· R2 = 0.9901'00 :m ffl: If:. im It ( CN, ) 0.55721 (+ ) 4.68··· R' = 0.985~ ~ af.! (SR,) 0.88283 ( + ) 21.60"· F = 222.17·"~jI~iI:~~t§iJlm(TBRP'_l) 0.22923 (+ ) 2.23·· D.W. = 1.67It 1lJ£ it ( M. ) -0.34012 (- ) 6.33"· D.F. = 12.00tJl • • Jt( D ) 0.16012 ( 6 ) 3.65···
( 13 )
- 60-
~ ~ ~ It j@fM\H~lt Jjt!m~~ ttl «Ii tt
it ~ ~( B.. ) -4.39680 ( l::, ) -2.61- R' =0.946
lfS:f$JBfAtiJi:4'-~lj~~~:I: -0.20807 ( - ) -4.54- R' =0.924(ATBQ')ZP::f$JBfA~I=]4'-~lj~~~:I: 0.05095 (+ ) 2.30'" FS , 12 =41.81 ***U.IBQ, )~ I=] 4'-~ZP::f$JBf~ JTJIj¥1l~ 0.44083 ( + ) 4.44- D.W.=2.81wm.mZfIJ ( ACF.)
~~ 1: ~ ~ ~1l~( PRP,) 1.15650 (+ ) 5.62- D.P. =12.00
zp::f$J~APJ~mFJT~(DPIt) 0.49450 (+ ) 2.93 **
.= ' m!;~m~Z~~H~.1mJJJ¥g~~
EE~ 1 ~~3lJ{~~~*, FJTlIJ7,RJ¥gR" t ~iIT:I::&.F ~iIT:I: ' l'iJ~m~*~
~iIT~~~M~tt,~~~~iIT~~~W~~~~~H~~~~m~o@ft~~
~m~m~H**'~~iIT~~m~*~1m~W~~m~H*~~~m~,~~
~~HJ;t~fF~-~J¥g~m, ::;t;tt~{Mf{lJ{~~J¥g ( f orcas t ing purpose )J¥gm~
, tJ. ~If ( evaluate ) !£~~ ( test ) ~~c~~ 0 rmmj)t7tftT1J7.tjl~-:mlj~
~~m1J$'~1J~~EEm~**lli~~~~~m~1l,U~~~~.~~~(
.~1l ) iiM ( deviation) ~U ' ~iiiJliJ~~m~z~lJ{UooJJ 0 ~~m~m
~1m:t.J ~~~ , liJtJ.fflm~a 5Hf:f$J1J:m ( root -mean - square s imulati on
percent error, RMSP ) ~~ilJ/f\:f$J~~~ (Theil's inequality coefficient
) f'F ffi£ ffilJJl J¥gm I! 0
l.m~a7tlf.:f$J1JfR
,os: RMSP .s: 00
~ RMSP1lfljJj\~~m~zHltwJ(jgjJ;f!.<3$0
2~.~:f$J~~~'@~UIWU.~.M~o
_1 t (YD' + _1_± (yn'T t=l T t=1
( 14 )
fUH!l!iJ!f~if.f1J .40 jgj • ~1Il 75 if. 12 Jl - 61 -
T 170
jjJ{
140
125
110
95
80 L....__~__~ ~ _
56575859606162636465 6667 68!lJ 7071 72 73 iJ'.!iJIJ
~ 16000
~
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000 A
56 57 58 59 6061 6263 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 iJ'.!iJU
( 15 )
- 62 -
f;:ff/A
1. 04
0.90
0.76
0.62
0.34
0.20
56 57 5859 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 ::if.JiiJ
~4 ~~BA~~*~~~~~tZ.~m~~.~.~~
330
300
270
240
150........._-~--~--~---~--
5657 585960 61 6263 6465 666768 697071 72 73 ::if. JiIJ
( 16 )
- 63 -
(2) u, = --=----...Lt ey~ -yn'T t=l
_1 fen)'Tt=l
'iitu.-/l~~:1lf~~~, ~IHiU~.~-OO:~~~11:~!J\ 0 RMSP , u, ,u. ~5'\9=Jm-E1.~~Y~~~.I~H~' v: ~~~IHj([ 0
~M±~~~~~~.~-/l~~.m~~~m~~,w~~~~~.~~~
~'~~2~~5m~om~9=J~~~~OO.~~lli~.oo~.~m~~m:1lf'
~~~~.~~~~n~~~~~~~~*Rm~,.~*~~m~~z~.~
~~~~~~,~~~w~~~••~~~m~,**~~m~ft~~~~~~~~m~~,~~~~~.¢~~ma*~~~~~m~o
~~lmM±J!~~tJlI!~~~.B~~~~nm(RMSP) ~~U!J'1'~~~.( u. , u. )7jllj~zk6*~J~~(4 0 m~9=J.~RMSP .. u, ~u, ~-/l~~!J\.ft
~:1lfW~' .~~.-/l~.~m~~rdl.?Ij9=J~~~~!J\ , ~~*~~utJm.~nfi*o
~~. RMSP u, u.
MWf3:¢iilt. 0.0310 0.0150 0.0300
lfI~¢~~~jl 0.0444 0.0167 0.0334
zp.~WAti~¢~;ff~~~jl 0.0444 0.0177 0.0353
1fI~4-~ .Jt~1§1JU~ 0.0452 0.0226 0.0452
(::)~~~.~tt
-~w~ ,·*mH~~<z~m~UU~'1'\t?i.~.~~~, *MIUl'E*.~
-{l~Jj-/l ' ~130~~~m~H~:Mrdllm!&~~~Jjfl 0 l";SIJltffl~ft~~l:l'fU '
~~~~~~••~~.~.~~,~z~~••-/l~~IUl~~*,lm.~~l:-~m~~~z~~$;M~' ~~~~:Jl!:~~aftt~~,J{1j~*M~~~
~m~.$~~,~~~~~m~~~~~'.~~~~~M~~m~*o:Jl!:*
~~.~11:~~~,~~~~mm~~-~Jj.o
~~~~m~ftz~~~~~~~n~~~(4·25'\)'OO
( 17 )
-6(-
m;qJilt A Y. =Dj Y,_j +D. Z. , D j = -B , D. =-C 0
JlUljHUUU~~;t (reduced form) ,lID
Y, =1r1 Y'-I + 1r. Z, ( 4.3;t)
= .
k
= 1r~+IY._(k+l) +nEo Jr~ 1r. Z'on ( 4.4;t )
~lim~A-:fi.~tE • fll] 1rf+1~~[t;]~~~~ (null matrix) • Y.tE!ltMlYl
fHI[t;]~-1W:lt3Jj-M 0 ~93J 1r, ~i!HIr<u~~~~? m~jJi1r' ~lIitE~ (latent
root ) • A '1i A~~~OO/J\~ 1 • *7R1r1 ~r<u~~~~' @Dm~A-1f.)E
11 0 1r, a'iJ~l1~m Etrit~I11i~;ttt~ • flD I 1rl - U I =0
Etr~:!W tllU~ ~*~93J :
0 0 0 CN.
-0.55721 1 0 0 TBQ,A= Y.=
0 1 1 0 ATBQ,- POP,
0 0 0.20807 1 4X4 TBRP. 4 XI
0.70995 0 0 0 eN,_,
0 0 0 0.22933 TBQ,_,D,= Y'- I =
0 0 0 0 ATBQ,_,
0 0 0 0 4X4 , TBRP, 4Xl
( 18 )
- 65 -
;e: POP, j;JJ~;IiI73 1f:K!AIJIe 19,012 'fAff. ' 1iJf!J p6p, ~m 0.00005 ' ~JIt1iJf!J~ "I =A-I D. 0
0.70995 0 o _2XlO- e
o 0.229331C, =
o
o
o
o o o
2X 10-0 0 o o
0.70995-A 0
o -A o 0.22933
o o -A o=0
o
t, A' O' - 0.70995 A- 2 X 10-" ) =0
f:ISl:f.£2 X 10-11 :;I;;:/J\, IIUtBmffij/Nrr' JlU1iJf!J
A= 0 £!It A=0.70995
1m ...~zi@;.~i.
~ffiL~m~~.m'1iJ~*xm~li~~~~A~~~~~~~~.~
~'~~1iJm*~M~~~#.*~~~~~~m~o~.~~~m~m~~~
~*'1iJ~f!J~~m~~~~M~,n~~~~:
H we*ilf{Ie~~i€t~'ltH1:
ffi~~~1*~!!~llcm~5t ' t{:ft/J\zp.1.1~~IJ~ , mt{j@Jifi~Ilc~O~~~
.llco.~'ffiMWS*~Ie~i€t5t~~~*(.1 )1iJf!Jl.MWfl3:*~Ilc~~M~i€t~M:( SES) , SES ={j12 =0.10137
2.MWS*MIlc~*M~~M: ( LE S) , LE S =IS: {jSn =0.34949
L~~~i€t~M:~,.m~••~~**~m~~fl~m~'L§I%~
, ~MPge*~Ilc~~1JO 0.1 % ' ffijtE*MflfjS*~Ilc~ii1JO 0.35 ~ 0 It~*
( 19 )
- 66 -
WHj~i(HIJI~*nHilWl#HiH'IIH~ • ill ff:i~~ IJ'~ 1 • Ih:f-fe:,*WU~~:B9jff1JlI • ~if:l1!l~$~~~_~fl~~~.~B9&~~~~~·§~~~~~~~~~W~.~
~~&I!!o
(::)tia:~~~~.~
ffitia:,*~~~~~~~*(~2)m~tia:~~~~.Z~~~~~(
TB PES) • T BP ES = {321 = 0.22933 0 ~7f- t - 1Wlti a:'*~.ft~~1J(i§J:ill %. mt Wltia:~~~~:S:~{ijff1JlI 0.23 % 0 J!t~WlWfe:~m~1j1JlII
%' ti~'*~~IltI:~jff1JlI~0.56 % • I3D {321 = 0.55721 ,m7f-tiif,*~~m:l:
flWlWil}~mIU81J1IB9~~&~~* 0
(.=.)1Jt~il!lIM~1*1lc ( price flexibility coefficient)
I3Dtia:4:~~~:I:'~D ,*~~m;l:_~Am3tmm~~tia:,*~~~~i§
B9~. 0 ffi~3 ti~~~~1!~~&r!~7JlU~~* • m~~zp.:f;$}~Atiif'*~1[
~~~.z~~il!lm~1*Ilc~ - 0.2al07 , zp.:f;$}~A~D ~~,"~~i&bl:Z1J(i§
il!lm1*llc~ 0.05095 ' zp.:f;$}~A m3tmm~Z~~il!lli~1*Ilc~ 0.49450 0 ~
J!tmHUDff:i11UI~i'J'flWit :1.'I'~D,*~~lE1It~~1'~m1j1J1I' t!O{flj*Wl.ED~~i$f:L1B1j1JlI' ~~tiiI
~~.1!~~m~J:~,§xt!OJ:~ti~4:~~~.~&~~~z••m~,w~ D~~jff1J1I1r%!(;'*~tJ1J.B97f-fi~*( de mon st r a t icn effect) , 3<.f!iI~A
#1I:tJ1J.~.B9tia:,*~ , ~~ti a:~~tI)j(1j1JlI , ilatia:,*~~~~~J:~
, ill~ J:t1IlmJ!lg~f!iI tia:,*~~~..~A%J!IbB9~"; (2) 'I"zp.:f;$}~ A m3t m PJf~_tia:~~'"~~A%:I:~~1j~I%.,m~~tia:,*~~~1J(~J:~,m.
~ti~~~~~~~~m~.~Z&~~*o
(f!!I)ffft~ ,..1*
~D~~_~~~~tia:'*~B9~ft~offi~3m~~~D~~zp.:f;$}~0fi
jlJ~.~_INI&ZfOl!il:g 1 %11;1. ~~ti~,*~.1!~~l'l!il:~ 0.44 % ' rm~
~J:~m~l'~ 1%. ' tia:'*~.tt.~~l'~~ 1.16 % ' m7f-~~~tiiI4:~~ffft~J!l~*·~~~A~II:tJ1J.~MB9~~,rm~D~~*~~~~~
·~~~~~fltia:~~B9~ft~J!l~~~D~~Wti~~~B9ffft~J!lo
ffi~~~*.7f-~.4:~~~H*~.·±~~~.llcoo~m-~f!iI*~.
H1*·m.~~IlcH1*m~li-M~m~Mn~~B9m~~H*~~m~,~~
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25.rioo. ' -a.=6~tJtflf~1R;j§zif~ • 1:f~*DJ!MUI~mm±~3c ,~m 57:$6 Jl 0
26. Crom, Rand W. Maki, "Adjusting Dynamic Models to improve Their Predic
tive Ability", J.F.E., Nov. 1965, Vol. 44, pp. 963-972.
27.Faris, J. Edwin, "Analytical Technigues Used in Determining the Optimum
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31Maki, Willer R, "Decomposition of the Beef and Pork Cycle", J.F.E. Aug.
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( 23 )
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4(!"Smith, Blair J., "Dynamic Programming of the Dairy Cow Replacement
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( 24 )
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- 74-
A Dynamic Analysis of Beef Demand and Supply in Taiwan
Biing-Wen Hwang *
Sununary
The objective of this study was to analyze the dynamic relationship ofbeef demand and supply. The analysis of demand, supply and price relationshipfor beef sector used the time-series data from 1965 to 1984. A recursive econometric model of beef demand and supply with four equations was establishedafter the above analysis. This econometric model appropriately demonstratedthe economic phenomena of beef demand and supply as for the model validationand simulation.
* A Graduate of Research Institute of Agriculture Economics, National ChungHsing University, Taichung, Taiwan, R.O.C.
( 28 )
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