Complex Systems, Dynamics & Design KEY NOTE Professor Jeffrey Johnson, Principal Investigator:...

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Complex Systems, Dynamics & Design

KEY NOTE

Professor Jeffrey Johnson, Principal Investigator: ECiD2 Research Cluster.

Complexity, Dynamics & Design

• designed systems can be complex

Complexity, Dynamics & Design

• designed systems can be complex

• design processes can be complex

Complexity, Dynamics & Design

• designed systems can be complex

• design processes can be complex

• design environment can be complex

Complexity, Dynamics & Design• designed systems can be complex

• design processes can be complex

• design environment can be complex

• design - a complex cognitive social process

Complexity, Dynamics & Design

Design involves assembles parts into wholes

predicting the behaviour of the whole

Complexity, Dynamics & Design

Design involves assembles parts into wholes

predicting the behaviour of the whole

dynamics

Complexity & Dynamics

Traditional Science & Cassandra

prediction & prescience

Complexity & Dynamics

Traditional Science & Cassandra

prediction & prescience

Halley’s Comet

Complexity & Dynamics

Traditional Science & Cassandra

prediction & prescience

Halley’s Comet

Newton’s Laws – a triumph for science

Complexity & Dynamics

Traditional Science & Cassandra

prediction & prescience

Predictive science for engineering design

Complexity & Dynamics

Traditional Science & Cassandra

prediction & prescience

Some systems: point prediction impossible

Complexity & Dynamics

Traditional Science & Cassandra

prediction & prescience

How can the dynamics be designed & controlled?

Complexity & Dynamics

Traditional Science & Cassandra

prediction & prescience

Dynamics and prediction in design ?

Science versus pre-science: ‘just knowing’

How can the dynamics be designed & controlled?

Complexity & Dynamics

Complexity & Dynamics

Complex Systems & Prediction

Dynamics emerge from interactions ofmany heterogeneous parts at many levels

Trial and error not an option

Must understand transitions

Complexity & Dynamics

Complex Systems & Prediction

t + tt + 2t

t + 3t

Now

time horizon

?

Complexity & Dynamics

Complex Systems & Prediction

Now

t + tt + 2t

t + 3t

time horizon

?

Complexity & Dynamics

Complex Systems & Prediction

Now

t + tt + 2t

t + 3t

time horizon

?

designing the future

Complexity & Dynamics

Design as the Lab of Complex Systems

map out possible futures from data

make a change

create ‘artificial’ system

observe what happens

Experiments not replicable

Complexity & Dynamics

Designing Complex Systems only politicians have the mandate & the money

Complexity & Dynamics

Designing Complex Systems only politicians have the mandate & the money

Complex Systems Scientists need to work with policy makers

Complexity & Dynamics

Designing Complex Systems only politicians have the mandate & the money

Complex Systems Scientists need to work with policy makers

But they know nothing of design as process

Complexity & Dynamics

Designing Complex Systems only politicians have the mandate & the money

Complex Systems Scientists need to work with policy makers

CS Scientists need to know about design

…together we are designing the future

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