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ASSOCIATION FOR CANADIAN EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES (ACER) Applied Climate Change Conference May 23-24 , 2013. Community Sustainability under a Changing Climate. Don C. MacIver mayor.maciver@hotmail.com Marianne Karsh mbkarsh@gmail.com. Climate Change is a global-local issue. Sustainable - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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ASSOCIATION FOR CANADIAN EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES (ACER)
Applied Climate Change ConferenceMay 23-24, 2013
Community Sustainability under Community Sustainability under a Changing Climatea Changing Climate
Don C. MacIvermayor.maciver@hotmail.com
Marianne Karshmbkarsh@gmail.com
Climate Change is a global-local issue
Safety/Health Competitiveness
Adaptation to: • Changing markets• Changing regulations• Changing technologies
Adaptation to: • Changing landscapes• Changing species/seeds• Changing ecosystems
Adaptation to: • Changing climate• Changing hazards• Changing behaviour
Sustainable
Communities
Biodiversity
UN/ISDR Resilient Cities Campaign Resilient Communities National Platform
POINT 1: The Atmosphere is unforgiving
POINT 2: The Climate is already Changing
Annual Temps: Warmed
Mean Temps ~ 2.7 C Min Temps most ~4.1C
Annual Precip: Slight Increase?
Toronto Annual Precipitation(1895-2002)
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
mm
)
How has the Climate Been Changing in the Area?
Since late 1800s
1961-1990 Normal Temp = 7.2
1971-2000 Normal Temp = 7.5
1981-2010 Normal Temp = 8.4
Adapting to the Changing ClimateAdapting to the Changing ClimateToronto Pearson AirportToronto Pearson Airport
Climate Change Ensemble Not Sign. Difference from 2001-2010 Decade
Celebrity Storms: Visible Celebrity Storms: Visible impacts with extremes…impacts with extremes…
Saguenay flooding (1996), 26 millions m3 of water and 9 millions tons of debris
The Great Ice Storm (1998),1,5 millions customers without electricity for up to 30 days
Waves and storms
floods
forest fires
droughts, heat spells
Page 8
Threats to Biodiversity in Canada
• Land-Use Change
• Climate Change
• Insects/Disease/Fire
POINT 3: Landscapes are also changing
• Loss of Biodiversity
Global Climate Model Projections for Region – 2050s
Scenario data from AR4 CGCM3 and HadCM3Changes relative to 1961-1990 Baseline Climate
Annual Mean Temps Warming
2.6 – 4.0 C
Annual Mean Precip Increasing
6-15%
POINT 4: The Climate will be Changing
Biodiversity Monitoring Themes
Monitoring based on species at risk
Monitoring based on population trends
Monitoring based on status and trends in habitat
Monitoring based on threats to biodiversity
There are four general themes under which most forest biodiversity monitoring activities fall:
Page 12
0
20
40
60
80
100
Number of Trees
1995 2000 2003
Year
Comparison of Proportion of Live and Dead Eastern Flowering Dogwoods in
Backus Woods 1995-2003
Dead
Alive
Climate and Forest Biodiversity Using Smithsonian Global
Biodiversity Observation Network
“Canada can ill-afford the loss of one species”
Planned Adaptation: Increasing Habitat Biodiversity Under Climate Change by 2020 Marianne Karsh and Don MacIver
References•Butt, S. and A. Fenech. 2000. Pre-European Settlement Landcover Mapping of Southern Ontario. Unpublished report, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario. 35 pp.•Dallmeier, F., A. Fenech, D.C MacIver and R. Szaro (eds.). 2010. Climate Change, Biodiversity and Sustainability in the Americas. Smithsonian Institution Scholarly Press, Washington, D.C. 183 pp.•Fenech, A., D.C. MacIver and F. Dallmeier (eds.). 2009. Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Americas. Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario. 346 pp.•MacIver, D.C., M.B. Karsh and N. Comer. 2009. Climate change and Biodiversity: Implications for Monitoring, Science and Adaptive Planning. Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Division (AIRD), Toronto, Ontario. 184 pp.
Pre-settlement Baseline Biodiversity Data (1792)
National Biodiversity Observing Sites (NBOS)
Climate Change Scenarios
Conclusion• Re-establishment of the sustainable biodiversity baseline under climate change by 2020 is illustrated by the Long Point curves, based on appropriate land-use regulation and the proactive planting of native and new species (i.e. planned adaptation).
• Using one climate change model, by itself, produced inflated results, compared to the ensemble of the top 7 out of 24 verified models.
•Climate Change Scenarios for GCM’s and RCM’s are available from www.cccsn.ca and the climate-biodiversity examples at www.canadabiodiversity.ca.
Figure 1. Pre-settlement Biodiversity Data southern Ontario in 1972.
Figure 2. National Biodiversity Observing Sites (NBOS) and the Heat Unit by Family Biodiversity Model.
Figure 3. Modeled warming in southern Ontario using an ensemble of climate change models.
Figure 4. Historical rate of loss of native biodiversity and responses of biodiversity under climate change along with land-use regulation, insect/disease controls and planned adaptation.
• Habitat biodiversity levels in the pre-settlement period were significantly higher than today.
• The Smithsonian Institution network now numbers more than 500 sites worldwide with more than 100 sites across Canada, including more than 25 in southern Ontario.
• In Canada, heat is the primary driver of climate-triggered changes in habitat biodiversity.
• The heat unit by family biodiversity model is based on observational data and has helped understand (>85% explanation) and predict the effects of a changing climate.
• The Sustainable Biodiversity Baseline is defined as the level established at the time of the pre-settlement land surveys.
• Significant losses in native biodiversity result from little or no land-use regulatory controls and expansion of high-value agricultural crops as illustrated by the Essex curves, in which the wetlands have disappeared and only 5% of the original habitat remains today.
• Provided that land-use regulation, agricultural expansion and insects/diseases are controlled, the incremental warming of the climate system will create a more favourable environment for a recovery (planned adaptation) to pre-settlement levels in habitat biodiversity (native and new species) over the next hundred years.
Page 17
Toronto Biodiversity Potential
Climate Change Experimental Biodiversity Site
• Association for Canadian Educational Resources (ACER) and Arborvitae is monitoring impacts of warmer temperatures on biodiversity at the Humber Arboretum in NW Toronto
• Documenting response on 1 hectare biodiversity plot of native, new forest and herbaceous species
• Info will be used to develop new planting protocols, adaptive management practices under climate change
Page 19
Biological Threats to BiodiversityM.B. Karsh, A. Casselman, D.C. MacIver, S. Fung, and H. Auld
United Nations Publications Climate Change and
Biodiversity
Page 21
Publications
Dallmeier, F., A. Fenech, D.C MacIver and R. Szaro (eds.). 2010. Climate Change, Biodiversity & Sustainability in the Americas. Smithsonian Institution Scholarly Press, Washington, D.C. 183 pp.
Fenech, A., D.C. MacIver and F. Dallmeier (eds.). 2009. Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Americas. Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, On. 346 pp.
•MacIver, D.C., M.B. Karsh and N. Comer. 2009. Climate change and Biodiversity: Implications for Monitoring, Science and Adaptive Planning. Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Toronto, On. 184 pp.
•MacIver D, 2013 (Accepted For Publication), Climate Sense For Municipalities, Municipal World Publication •MacIver D, Karsh M, 2010, Planned Adaptation - How Municipalities Can Save Energy And Increase Habitat Biodiversity Under Climate Change By 2020 And Beyond, Municipal World Publication
•MacIver D, Fernandez S, 2010, Canadian Drought Alert And Monitoring Program - The Do-It-Yourself Drought Alert And Water Conservation Tool, Municipal World Publication
•MacIver D, Butt S, Auld H, Klaassen J, 2009, Severe Weather is the #1 Risk To Ontario Municipalities, Municipal World Publication
Thank you!
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