COMMUNICATING CLIMATE IMPACTS · 2017. 5. 4. · bottom of the U.S. public’s policy priorities...

+

COMMUNICATING

CLIMATE IMPACTS Local Solutions Conference

May 2014

www.climateaccess.org

SOCIAL CAPITAL STRATEGIES

US POLLING SUMMARY

METHODOLOGY

LITERATURE AND POLLING REVIEW:

122 articles including survey data from 2005 to 2014 and academic research from the fields of behavioral science,

communications, development studies, environmental

studies, political science, and psychology.

SCAN OF THE FIELD:

Reviewed 39 examples of campaigns, tools, and on-the-

ground projects related to climate preparation

communication and outreach.

Yale/GMU 2013

63% of Americans believe global warming is happening

(with an increase in those who don’t think it’s happening).

US POLLING: ISSUE UNDERSTANDING

Climate Change in the American Mind: Americans’ Global Warming Beliefs and Attitudes in November 2013 8

!

1. Climate Change Beliefs

1.1. A majority of Americans believe global warming is happening.

About two in three Americans (63%) believe global warming is happening. Relatively few – only 23 percent – believe it is not. The proportion who believe global warming is real has remained steady since Spring 2013. However, the proportion who do not believe global warming is happening has increased 7 percentage points since Spring 2013. The proportion of Americans who say they “don’t know” whether or not global warming is happening has dropped 6 points – from 20 to 14 – since Spring of 2013.

58% of Americans say they worry a great deal or fair

amount about global warming.

Gallup 2013

US POLLING: CONCERN

54% of Americans saying the effects of global warming

have already begun.

Gallup 2013

US POLLING: IMPACTS

Global warming has ranked at or near the

bottom of the U.S. public’s policy priorities

since 2009.

29% say global warming is a top priority

(ranked 19 out of 20 issues) in Jan 2014.

US POLLING: PRIORITY

Pew 2014

Yale/GMU 2013

Most Americans believe global warming will primarily harm future generations and plant/animal species.

Climate Change in the American Mind: Americans’ Global Warming Beliefs and Attitudes in November 2013 15

!

3. The Perceived Threat of Global Warming 3.1. Global warming is seen as a relatively distant threat.

!

Over years of research, we have consistently found that, on average, Americans view global warming as a

threat distant in space and time – a risk that will affect far away places, other species, or future generations

more than people here and now.

We still find this same pattern, in which fewer than half of Americans (38%) believe they personally will be harmed a “moderate amount” or a “great deal” by global warming. By contrast, half or more believe that global warming will harm future generations of people (65%), plant and animal species (65%), people in developing countries (56%), people in other industrialized societies (54%), or people in the U.S. (53%).

US POLLING: DISTANT THREAT

40% say we

could reduce

global warming, but

it’s unclear whether

we will do what’s

necessary.

5% say humans

can reduce global

warming and that

we’ll do so

successfully.

Yale/GMU 2013

51%

45% 47%

41%

47% 46% 49%

45%

40%

5% 10%

5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 3%

5%

11/08(n=2,164)

1/2010(n=1,001)

6/2010(n=1,024)

5/2011(n=1,010)

11/2011(n=1,000)

3/2012(n=1,008)

9/2012(n=1,061)

4/2013(n=1,045)

11/2013(n=x)

GROWING NUMBER OF AMERICANS BELIEVE GLOBAL WARMING WON’T BE STOPPED

Have hope that…….

67% People want to save resources for future generations

64% People are becoming informed

58% Once people feel the impacts they’ll act

THOSE WHO BELIEVE GLOBAL WARMING

IS HAPPENING:

Yale/GMU 2013

But they doubt action we be taken because……

72% Corporations care only about their own profits

68% Most people don’t know what they can do

52% People have higher priorities to worry about

CLIMATE IMPACTS

59% weather has been

getting worse

70% experienced

extreme weather

33% experienced global

warming

PERSONAL EXPERIENCE WITH

EXTREME WEATHER

51% experienced

extreme heat in the past

year

67% say global

warming contributed to

record highs

HEAT WAVES

42% experienced

drought conditions

49% say climate change

exacerbated droughts

65% say climate change

is fueling wildfires

DROUGHT & WILDFIRES

41% experienced an

extreme rainstorm

15% experienced a

hurricane

46% say climate change

made Superstorm Sandy

more severe

EXTREME STORMS

73% say global warming will

cause sea-level rise

76% say sea-level rise will be

serious problem

SEA-LEVEL RISE

85% favor preparedness

60% think preparing will

create jobs

94% think it will be difficult

VIEWS ON PREPARATION

HOW RISK PLAYS A ROLE

1. Discounting the Future

2. Dealing with Complexity

3. Displacing Risk

HOW RISK PLAYS A ROLE

4. Individual vs.

Societal Risk

5. Illusion of Control

6. Optimism Bias

HOW RISK PLAYS A ROLE

7. Valuing Certainty

8. Psychological

Denial

9. Filtering Based on

Values

Recommendations

START WITH AUDIENCE VALUES

! "#$%&"' ( ")*+**

, $- . */%$&%$)0*

12! ! 3 ! 45*67 ! 289634*

: ; <=( >*)&*5; ?*

! "#$#%&"' $() #*"+,*() &-&"(! *%' %+. +*/(

: ; <=( >*)&*6#&$@*) #*01+*"+(&*(2&%(234&*+44(

5. +,&"' *(! *6/$+. +*/(

8A! 6B8454*

: ; <=( >*)&*5; ?*

! */734&' 4. (8#, (9+: (; +"7*#$#%<(=+>+"6#*(#8(53/7#,&/<(

: ; <=( >*)&*6#&$@*? 3/<(

@. A#,/' *"+(#8(?&4"&A$&*+(

962! 56C! 24*

: ; <=( >*)&*5; ?*

5. +,&"' *(B&C+,/<(D,#3A(! %' $&/' ,&' *&4. (

: ; <=( >*)&*6#&$@*5. +,&"' *(! *6/$+. +*/(

E *8+F +,+1(@*1&-&13' $&4. (

D3A! 24563A83 1*! 3 : 82E 3 7 ! 3 56B*: 6BD! 4*

G#3,"+H(I =+HD,++*(J(; 7+(! "#$#%&"' $(=#' 1. ' AH(5(D3&1+(/#(5. +,&"' *(G#"&' $(K' $3+4(' *1(! *-&,#*. +*/' $(! *%' %+. +*/L(7F AHMM: : : N"$&. ' /+' ""+44N#,%M,+4#3,"+M,+%,++*J+"#$#%&"' $J,#' 1. ' A(

526A858E 3 6B8454*

: ; <=( >*)&*5; ?*

9 ' 6#*' $(O,&1+(5$/,3&4. (

: ; <=( >*)&*6#&$@*! P"+44&-+(; ' P' 6#*(

5A#"' $<A4+(

A28: ! 3 *83A! /! 3A! 3 54*

: ; <=( >*)&*5; ?*

QA+**+44(/#() 7' *%+(! */734&' 4. (8#, (9+: (; +"7*#$#%<(

: ; <=( >*)&*6#&$@*D#-+,*. +*/(' 4(! "#*#. &"(! R3' $&S+,(

=+>+"6#*(#8(53/7#,&/<(

7 D2CF*7 8AAB! 4*

: ; <=( >*)&*5; ?*

! R3' $(=+$' 6#*47&A(: &/7(T#3/7(QA+**+44(/#() 7' *%+(

: ; <=( >*)&*6#&$@*5-+,4&#*(/#() #. A$+P&/<(

! */734&' 4. (8#, (9 +: (; +"7*#$#%<(

G656B8454*

: ; <=( >*)&*5; ?*

G' -&*%(#*(O,&*"&A$+(@. A#,/' *"+(#8(9 ' 6#*' $(G+"3,&/<(

: ; <=( >*)&*6#&$@*QA+**+44(/#() 7' *%+(

B&C+,' $() #. . 3*&/' ,&' *&4. (

7 65! 286B8454*

: ; <=( >*)&*5; ?*

O3,43&/(#8(@*/+*4&/<(9++1(8#, (G/' /34(=+"#%*&6#*(

: ; <=( >*)&*6#&$@*=+$&%&#4&/<(

) &-&"(! *%' %+. +*/(

92D! B*H E 2BA! 24*

: ; <=( >*)&*5; ?*

! */,+A,+*+3,&' $&4. (5. +,&"' *(! *6/$+. +*/(

: ; <=( >*)&*6#&$@*; +"7*#$#%<(5*P&+/<(

! - +,<(U ' *(8#, (V&. 4+$8(

D312! ! 3 4*

: ; <=( >*)&*5; ?*

9 ' 6#*' $(O,&1+(() #*01+*"+(&*(2&%(234&*+44(

: ; <=( >*)&*6#&$@*! "#$#%&"' $() #*"+,*(

D$#C' $() #*4"&#34*+44(

! "#$%&"' ( ")**+*

7 (@$=' */%$&%$)0*

! "#$%&"' ( ")*+*

B&I */%$&%$)0*

Recommendations

Disinterest Deliberation Design Doing Defend

Organizational/

self-reevaluation Commitment

Helping relationships

Disturbances

Awareness-building

Choice expansion

Emotional Inspiration

Supportive relationships

Cognitive and Experiential Change Mechanisms

Behavior Change Mechanisms

CHANGE STAGES AND MECHANISMS

Reinforcement

Substitution

Structural Redesign

Recommendations

LEVERAGE WEATHER EVENTS

•Connect the dots to

climate carefully

• Emphasize trends more

certain

•Concern for humanity

• Less severe trends also

important

Recommendations DISINTERES

T

EXPERIENTIAL EDUCATION

Recommendations DISINTERES

T

Art and Culture

Recommendations DISINTERES

T

Recommendations

FOCUS ON PREPARATION

DELIBERATION

Why me?

What are the stakes? What are the solutions?

What is the problem?

Why now? Connect to

identity.

Economic, community,

and individual well-

being.

Balance impacts with solutions

that are on scale with them. Frame

mitigation as an effective way to

prepare for and reduce risk.

Impacts are causing harm

now and are only getting

worse.

Waiting to act will

make the task more

diffic

u

l t and cost ly .

Recommendations DELIBERATION

Recommendations

EXPLORE TRENDS, RATHER THAN

ARGUE ABOUT SCIENCE

DELIBERATION

Recommendations

EMPHASIZE CURRENT AND REGIONAL IMPACTS

DELIBERATION

Recommendations

USE IMPACT

SCENARIOS TO ILLUSTRATE TRENDS

DELIBERATION/DESIG

N

Recommendations

USE EFFECTIVE VISUALS

DELIBERATION

Recommendations

USE EFFECTIVE VISUALS

DELIBERATION

Recommendations

USE EFFECTIVE VISUALS

DELIBERATION

Recommendations

USE A DIALOGUE AND PEER-BASED OUTREACH METHODS

DELIBERATION/DESIGN

Recommendations DELIBERATION/DESIGN

Recommendations DELIBERATION/

DESIGN

Recommendations

MOTIVATE THE MOTIVATED &

AGGREGATE THEIR ACTIONS

DOING

http://ncanet.usgcrp.gov

Recommendations DOING/DEFENDING

Recommendations

PROMOTE

AND REWARD

LEADERSHIP

IN PREPARATION

DOING/DEFENDING

Recommendations DOING/DEFENDING

APPLYING ENGAGEMENT

BEST PRACTICES

+

Cara Pike

@pikecara

@climateaccess

www.climateaccess.org

info@climateaccess.org

Contact: