Comments on Assignment 1 n start any assignment with a clear statement of purpose n you must...

Comments on Assignment 1 start any assignment with a clear start any assignment with a clear

statement of purposestatement of purpose you must DEMONSTRATE a point, not you must DEMONSTRATE a point, not

simply ASSERT it.simply ASSERT it.– NOT: Problem statement is clear/unclearNOT: Problem statement is clear/unclear– BUT: Authors clearly identify their problem BUT: Authors clearly identify their problem

as . . .as . . . Look more carefully at Look more carefully at data analysisdata analysis

Obstacles to Making social research “scientific”

Some social issues involve Some social issues involve NORMATIVE questionsNORMATIVE questions

Inability to achieve EXPERIMENTAL Inability to achieve EXPERIMENTAL controls---typically requires use of controls---typically requires use of STATISTICAL controlsSTATISTICAL controls

So, why persist in trying???So, why persist in trying???– To assess the To assess the relative contributionrelative contribution of of

various possible (or apparent) factorsvarious possible (or apparent) factors

CONCEPTUALIZATION(Theory Construction)

assumptionsassumptions– a problem has been identified clearlya problem has been identified clearly– kind of problemkind of problem is one whose goal is to is one whose goal is to

account for why a particular set of social account for why a particular set of social phenomena is patterned as it is.phenomena is patterned as it is.

Some Basic Questions I’ll Address

Why must the theories we formulate be Why must the theories we formulate be thought through very carefully?thought through very carefully?

WhatWhat kind of theory kind of theory construction will be construction will be most useful to the conduct of such most useful to the conduct of such research?research?

The Essence of Theory concepts (constructs) linked via concepts (constructs) linked via

propositionspropositions propositions are essentially statements propositions are essentially statements

of relationship between 2 or more of relationship between 2 or more concepts that can take on more than concepts that can take on more than one value (VARIABLES)one value (VARIABLES)

Propositions and Hypotheses

Hypotheses are propositions that are Hypotheses are propositions that are stated in TESTABLE formstated in TESTABLE form

best developed hypos. specify the best developed hypos. specify the FORM of relationship anticipatedFORM of relationship anticipated

various forms of relationship among various forms of relationship among social phenomena are conceivablesocial phenomena are conceivable

Positive relationships

Population growth rate

(X)

Deforestation

rate

(Y)

Negative relationships

Economic status of county population

(X)

Toxic release

exposure rate

(Y)

Many relationships between social phenomena are Nonlinear

(like those involving development)

Development (X)

Life

expectancy

(Y)

What about???

Development (X)

Fertility(Y)

What about???

Development

Income Inequality

Kuznets hypothesis

Deforestation rate

Urbanization level

Curvilinear relationship example from the Deforestation

paper???

Significance of these alternative forms of relationship???

many standard statistical tests assume many standard statistical tests assume the existence of LINEAR relationshipsthe existence of LINEAR relationships

use them and you risk finding no or only use them and you risk finding no or only a weak relationship when in fact . . .a weak relationship when in fact . . .

moral: must think very carefully about moral: must think very carefully about what FORM of relationship is likely to what FORM of relationship is likely to exist. exist.

The issue of causal ordering

Symmetrical vs. Asymmetrical

X

Y

XY

(Independent) (Dependent)

(covariation)

the basis for EXPLANATION

useful for PREDICTION

Obstacles to demonstrating causal relationships

Reciprocal causation (toxic releases Reciprocal causation (toxic releases study)study)

existence of multiple correlates of an existence of multiple correlates of an outcome (toxic releases study)outcome (toxic releases study)

Multiple correlates problem creates opening for rebuttals like:

NOT: X(race) Y (exposure)

X

Z

YBUT:

OR: ZX

Yclass

Land value

Solution to this Obstacle???

During data analysis, control During data analysis, control for the influence of other for the influence of other phenomena that might be phenomena that might be related to both X and Y and related to both X and Y and contaminate their observed contaminate their observed relationshiprelationship

Implications: The most useful kind of theory construction will:

identify a system of variables that are identify a system of variables that are relatively open to one another’s relatively open to one another’s influence influence

specify the CAUSAL ORDERING specify the CAUSAL ORDERING among them that is anticipatedamong them that is anticipated

identify the FORMS of relationship identify the FORMS of relationship thought to exist.thought to exist.

The Flow Chart/ A useful tool

EXOGENOUS INTERVENING OUTCOME

X1

X2

X3

X4

X5

X6

+

++

+

-

-

Actions of people in

clearing land, harvesting timber or minerals, building roads,

expanding cities

EXAMPLE: Interstate Variation in

Residence-based abortion ratesin the late 20th C

Assignment: Look closely at problem statement

and conceptualization of: Haranczak, Kobos and Elgie. Student Haranczak, Kobos and Elgie. Student

attitudes toward capital punishmentattitudes toward capital punishment Baser et al. Attitudes toward condom Baser et al. Attitudes toward condom

availability programsavailability programs Sparrow and O’Brien. Attitudes toward Sparrow and O’Brien. Attitudes toward

impeachment of a presidentimpeachment of a president

---Suggest some changes that you think would strengthen the conceptual model.---Revise the flow chart to reflect your thinking.