Combating terrorism: Introducing discussion at a Freshman Seminar Richard Wilson Harvard University...

Combating terrorism: Introducing discussion at a

Freshman Seminar

Richard Wilson

Harvard UniversityNovember 8th 2006

Originally presented at conferences:

Chatham House UK December 2001Global Foundation, Miami, FL

December 2001

Probabilistic Safety and Management (PSAMS) Puerto Rico June 2002

Planetary Emergencies Erice,Sicily August 2002

Biological Terrorism (BTR3) Alburquerque March 2003

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First task:Define the problem.

Be very careful about DEFINITIONS

Are we all talking about the same subject?

Next task: break it into manageable

component partsfactorizable as much as possible

Bush's Prescriptionto stop terrorism

“Get the guy who did this”But in a suicide attack he is dead.  

   How do you find the planner?

Who is a terrorist?  When is a man a terrorist and when is he a

freedom fighter?

  Is a terrorist a coward? 

Did September 11th 2001 (4000 people killed)

change the world?

Not mine by much.The Rape of Nanking killed

300,000 civilians (1938)The UK air raid on Dresden

300,000 civilians (1944)(but it was the first in America)

Globalization and its Consequences

    Globalization seems inevitable.

Consequence of scientific breakthroughs

(1) Communication technology (2) Biology (genome)

(3) in physics.We cannot say:

Stop the world I want to get off !

I have few conclusions but many questions to answer.

We must address disagreements

Bush Called Osame Bin Laden EVIL

Does he compare with:Adolf Hitler?

Emperor Hirohito?Saddam Hussein?

“There are a lot of bright people in the worldCan’t one of them find a way of getting rid of

that man?”

Definition of a Terrorist (OED) The terrorists, as they were justly denominated, from the cruel and impolitic maxim of keeping the people in

implicit subjugation by a merciless severity (1795)   Several notables are believed to be more or less

implicated in the acts of the Terrorists (1905)    Miss G...., daughter of a Wexford terrorist, directed

many of the tortures which were so extensively practiced (1866)

some book of the religious terrorists which tended to infuse the alarm of foul perdition (1805)

Note that OED starts with STATE TERROR

and onlly later INDIVIDUAL or

NON-STATE TERRORISTS.

What did President Bush mean in 2001?

Was Hitler and his Nazis a gang of terrorists?

even though they were the legitimate government of Germany, originally elected by the people? 

And Hitler was the most popular leader in Europe

(among his people) in 1938? Were opponents of Hitler terrorists?

Esp. Colonel Von Stauffenburg who tried to assassinate Hitler with a bomb in a brief case?

Were the Hutus in Ruanda terrorists when they killed Tutsis although the legitimate government?

    Were the Young Turks terrorists when they victimized the Armenians in 1916?

Or were the Armenians terrorists because they were not model citizens?

Were (and are) the opponents of British rule in Ireland

terrorists?    Has the situation changed since partition in 1922?

Is the government of Russia guilty of terrorism against the people of Chechnya (who have as much voting power as other

residents of Russia) or are the radical Chechens guilty of

terrorism against Russia?

Or both?     Is the government of Sri Lanka acting like the Jacobins against the Tamils of the

north, or are the Tamils a bunch of terrorists to be tamed?

Was the US terrorising people in WACO Texas, or fighting terrorists?

Timothy McVeigh thought the former

    Was General Custer fighting a band of Indian terrorists, or

were the Indians fighting an oppression worse than the French had experienced in 1795?

It used to be “patriotic” to say the former. Now it is “politically correct” to imply the latter.

Is this because the Indians have been subjugated for over a century?

Was Castro a terrorist or a freedom fighter when he opposed

the government of Batista? 

What about those branded by Castro as terrorists to whom the USA has given citizenship?    

In the British -American system dissent has been tolerated

for 300 years

"My Lords, if I were an American, as I am an Englishman,

while a foreign troop was landed in my country

I never would lay down my arms - never, never, never."

I would not rest until the last foreign soldier had left my soil".

William Pitt (the elder), Earl of Chatham, his last speech in Parliament

We must not duck the difficult questions but face them head on.

Is the government of Israel a terrorist government because they follow " the

cruel and impolitic maxim of keeping the (Palestinian) people in implicit

subjugation by a merciless severity"? Or are the Palestinians all terrorists

because they belong to an organization opposing the present government of Israel and its policies and particularly in its early

days, aim to drive them into the sea?  

Possible criteria for choosing sides

A terrorist is a man with a bomb and no airplane to drop it from

(EM Purcell, 1983).

The Azeris were bad first (Elena Bonner, 1984)

A Rebellion is a Revolution which does not succeed(V. Weisskopf, 1958)

"Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of

oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing

us to slavery".

Gerry Adams?

"Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of

oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing

us to slavery".

Kashmiri Leader?

"Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of

oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing

us to slavery".

Yasser Arafat?

"Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of

oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing

us to slavery".

NO!

"Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of

oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing

us to slavery".

  Thomas Jefferson (1774)

This got him elected to the Constitutional Congress in Philadelphia

One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter.

Monachem Begin; terrorist in 1945 leader of Israel 1978

Bourgiba, jailed in Cairo, first President of Tunisia

    May 1940,  I learned unarmed combat.

Was I becoming a terrorist or a Freedom fighter?

34 years ago a friend of mine became a terrorist.

Then he became a freedom fighterWithin 6 months he was a statesman

Now he works for the health of the poor.

Dr Quasi Quamruzzaman did not change. He lives in Bangladesh.

The Planners and Financiers of Terrorism

    President Bush says he opposed the planners, and financiers, of terrorism.

Those in NY and Boston who financed the IRA stopped in 2000(after IRA terrorists brought into

the government)

Civilian or Military Targets?

    Are they different?Must a civilian be unarmed?What about throwing stones?

Even at worshippers? Does a military target justify Collateral

damage?What about the terror of Mutually

Assured Destruction

Cowardly acts

    Are "suicide bombers" "cowardly"?

Japanese Kamikaze pilots?Colonel Claus von Stauffenburg in 1944?Pilots dropping bombs on a UN refugee

camp?

Suicide bomber in Tel Aviv?

Step 1

The root causes of Terrorism   POVERTY per se IS NOT

(Many Social Science studies)Frustration

Failure to assimilateFear

No hope

If there is hope and you kill a terrorist you have one terrorist less

If there is no hope and you kill a terrorist you have 10 terrorists more (Israeli General)

Step 2.Keeping Terrorists at Arm’s length   Resolve major trouble spots

before they festerKashmir

Israel - PalestineAlas we failed to capitalize on 2001 unanimity

Mikhail Gorbachev urged use of UNset up in 1945 for such purposes

but often bypassed by USA and USSR

Step 2Keep Terrorists away from

Sensitive FacilitiesUSSR approach of closed citiesConflict with individual Liberties

This is the step where US administration has

concentrated efforts

Step 2A Keep weapons away from

TerroristsNot easy for AK47s and

Ammonium NitrateESSENTIAL

for nuclear bombs

Imagine what a terrorist might do: and

devise a system to make it hard for him to do it. 

Stop the event as early in the chain as possible

(dont let trouble spots fester)

Step 3. Event Tree nalysis

If estimated conseqences are small, the terrorist action is less

likely and we gain twice!

Step 3. Making Society Safer   Do not store a lot of fuel in one place

near a lot of people in one

place. (Wigner 1974) Oil tanks and LNG facilities should be in

remote areas.   (In 1848 London decided to keep Petroleum

products 30 miles from London bridge in Canvey Island)

Terrorism and Sabotage already considered for nuclear power.

“There is nothing that a terrorist can do that these clowns did not do

on their own.” (Rasmussen 1979)

BUTLook at the Low Probability

High Consequence Accident - a terrorist can make it

more probable

“A crucial defence against biological terrorism is to be

prepared for natural outbreaks” (pandemics)

Dr Barry Bloom, Dean HSPHand many others

This suggests a funding priority

FIGHTING the LAST WAR...!Pilots would now resist a

hijacking

Bar cockpit doorsHidden switch to take control of

plane to ground or automatic pilot

(already suggested)

FIGHTING the LAST WAR (contd)...! FEMA and NIST reports

Few plans for a major fire at WTC? Insulation not tested for durabilityInitial impact destroyed insulation and all

safety mechanisms (Common mode failure should have been

foreseen!)Helicopter fire fighters?

Protect buildings by cables from towers or balloons?

NISTsays that building codes were NOT broken.

What does this tell us about reliance on codes?

Should we demand a risk analysis of all tall buildings

before the Freedom Tower is built?

(Building Industry resists)

Inspect the insulation of all buildings over 50 stories high.

(expensive but possible;

e.g. apply a heat source to steel in one location and compare the

temperature - time profile with calculation)

Anthrax scare easyIrradiate all mail at sorting offices (Co60 or Cs137)

poisoning water supplies? Emergency purification?

Some terrorists are now educated.

Also some act in concert

    Sabotage and terrorism are unfortunate facts of life.

  They will be with us until the end

of the human race. 

We must not let terrorism distort our lives.

Other risks are bigger.Car accidents:

45,000/yr vs. 3,500 onceDrugs destroy society more

Security vs. FreedomOur human rights are what makes life worth living.

BUT

Simple comparison of risks clearly inadequate.

Effects of 9/11 vastly exceeded the quantitative costs:

Death rate at $xxxx per lifeRebuilding costs

“If you still want to belong to an organization dedicated to killing Americans, there’s always the tobacco lobby.”

Alex Gregory, Cartoonbank.com