CMGPD-LN Substantive Lecture

CMGPD-LNSubstantive Lecture

Day 6Marriage and Reproduction

Marriage and Reproductionin Comparison

• East/West differences in marriage and reproduction• East, including China:

– Early, universal marriage for women• In China, later and non-universal marriage for men

– Relatively slow pace of childbearing after marriage• Northwest Europe

– Late marriage for men and women• Some non-marriage

– Very rapid childbearing after marriage

Marriage and Remarriage in China• Marriage timing/proportions married

– Not much variation in female timing• For CMGPD-LN, female proportions married requires life table

analysis– More variation in male timing

• Thus more to analyze

• Assortative mating– Important question, but hard to do with the CMGPD-LN– Information about females does have surname and age

• Variant forms of marriage– Some concubinage in data, but not much– See work by Arthur Wolf and colleagues on Taiwan

Females proportion marriedby region

0.2

.4.6

.81

Pro

porti

on o

f fem

ales

mar

ried

10 15 20 25 30 35 40Age in sui

North Liaoning Central Liaoning South-central Liaoning

South Liaoning Shuangcheng

Females proportion marriedBy population type

0.2

.4.6

.81

Pro

porti

on o

f fem

ales

mar

ried

10 15 20 25 30 35 40Age in sui

Liaoning regular Liaoning specialized Liaoning low status

Shuangcheng Jingqi Shuangcheng Tunding

Males proportion marriedBy region

0.2

.4.6

.81

Pro

porti

on o

f mal

es m

arrie

d

10 15 20 25 30 35 40Age in sui

North Liaoning Central Liaoning South-central Liaoning

South Liaoning Shuangcheng

Males proportion marriedBy population type

0.2

.4.6

.81

Pro

porti

on o

f mal

es m

arrie

d

10 15 20 25 30 35 40Age in sui

Liaoning regular Liaoning specialized Liaoning low status

Shuangcheng Jingqi Shuangcheng Tunding

Table 2. Male First Marriage in Liaoning and Shuangcheng, 1789-1909 (controlled for age and time period.)  Shuangcheng  Mean exp(B) p Mean exp(B) PMarriage by next register 0.199 0.071

Population Type

Regular 0.802 ReferenceSpecialized 0.132 1.104 0.00Low 0.066 0.947 0.05ShuangchengJingqi 0.119 Reference

Tunding 0.881 1.149 0.00Geographical regionNorthern Liaoning 0.353 ReferenceCentral Liaoning 0.306 0.843 0.00South-central Liaoning 0.198 0.993 0.70Southern Liaoning 0.143 0.998 0.91Parental survivalBoth parents alive 0.586 Reference 0.631 ReferenceFather alive, mother dead 0.104 0.946 0.01 0.087 0.943 0.15Mother alive, father dead 0.171 0.993 0.71 0.177 1.042 0.17Both parents dead 0.139 0.750 0.00 0.105 0.857 0.00

  Shuangcheng  Mean exp(B) p Mean exp(B) PHousehold characteristicsFather is head 0.528 1.005 0.70 0.404 1.126 0.00# adult males in household 4.716 1.008 0.00 5.812 0.982 0.00# older married brothers 0.535 1.084 0.00 0.684 1.036 0.00# older unmarried brothers 0.275 0.621 0.00 0.353 0.539 0.00# unmarried older sisters 0.035 0.900 0.00 0.132 0.927 0.04# younger brothers 0.562 1.082 0.00 0.808 1.014 0.26# younger sisters 0.028 1.127 0.00 0.114 1.096 0.00Socioeconomic statusFather is artisan 0.008 1.365 0.00Father is soldier 0.033 1.112 0.01 0.041 0.935 0.28Father is higher official 0.009 1.204 0.00 0.022 1.273 0.00Father has an exam title 0.008 1.269 0.00 0.008 0.926 0.56Father has a purchased title 0.025 1.014 0.02# brothers with position 0.012 1.066 0.15 0.016 1.328 0.00# brothers with exam titles 0.002 1.068 0.54 0.004 0.999 1.00# uncles with position 0.079 1.026 0.20 0.074 1.004 0.92# uncles with exam titles 0.012 1.153 0.00 0.009 1.306 0.01# cousins with position 0.023 0.970 0.36 0.011 1.142 0.13# cousins with exam titles 0.004 1.181 0.03 0.003 0.993 0.97Artisan 0.000 2.011 0.01Soldier 0.002 1.270 0.09 0.001 2.045 0.00Higher official 0.001 1.772 0.00 0.000 2.688 0.00Exam title 0.001 1.824 0.00 0.000 1.414 0.55Purchased title 0.002 1.006 0.77

Table 3. Female First Marriage in Liaoning and Shuangcheng, 1789-1909 (controlled for age and time period.)  Shuangcheng  Mean exp(B) p Mean exp(B) pMarriage by next register 0.320 0.084Population category

Regular ReferenceSpecialized 0.043 1.246 0.00Low 0.058 1.438 0.00ShuangchengJingqi 0.262 ReferenceTunding 0.738 1.506 0.00Geographical regionNorthern Liaoning 0.282 ReferenceCentral Liaoning 0.534 1.004 0.90South-central Liaoning 0.113 0.940 0.25Southern Liaoning 0.071 0.680 0.00Parental survival Both parents alive 0.760 Reference 0.709 ReferenceFather alive, mother dead 0.094 1.172 0.00 0.090 1.061 0.31Mother alive, father dead 0.141 1.127 0.01 0.146 1.156 0.00Both parents dead 0.050 1.393 0.00 0.055 1.293 0.00

Table 3. Female First Marriage in Liaoning and Shuangcheng, 1789-1909 (controlled for age and time period.)  Shuangcheng  Mean exp(B) p Mean exp(B) pHousehold characteristicsFather is head 0.580 1.010 0.76 0.537 1.016 0.68# adult males in household 4.137 1.004 0.45 4.262 0.999 0.80# older married brothers 0.510 0.988 0.41 0.576 1.011 0.04# older unmarried brothers 0.258 0.896 0.00 0.327 1.019 0.54# unmarried older sisters 0.167 0.713 0.00 0.214 0.828 0.00# younger brothers 0.277 1.000 0.99 0.340 1.010 0.69# younger sisters 0.802 1.059 0.01 0.914 1.071 0.00Socioeconomic statusFather is artisan 0.025 0.904 0.29Father is soldier 0.163 0.834 0.00 0.070 0.763 0.00Father is higher official 0.030 0.743 0.00 0.064 0.790 0.00Father has an exam title 0.033 0.850 0.08 0.015 0.555 0.00Father has a purchased title 0.081 0.987 0.33 0.015 0.955 0.56# brothers with position 0.064 1.024 0.68 0.032 0.880 0.52# brothers with exam titles 0.017 0.700 0.01 0.006 0.842 0.00# uncles with position 0.270 0.954 0.10 0.128 1.299 0.14# uncles with exam titles 0.045 0.936 0.33 0.010 0.979 0.83# cousins with position 0.070 0.981 0.67 0.020 0.676 0.15# cousins with exam titles 0.012 1.091 0.48

  Table 4. Widower Remarriage in Liaoning and Shuangcheng, 1789-1909 (controlled for age and time period.)

    Shuangcheng  Mean exp(B) p Mean exp(B) PRemarriage by next register 0.080 0.051Duration of widowhood (Reference: 0-2 years)Widowed 3-9 years 0.416 1.047 0.59 0.480 0.992 0.94Widowed 10+ years 0.521 0.696 0.00 0.292 0.730 0.03Population category

Regular ReferenceSpecialized 0.098 1.078 0.36Low 0.068 0.948 0.60ShuangchengJingqi 0.123 ReferenceTunding (Ref.) 0.877 0.809 0.08Geographical regionsNorthern Liaoning 0.444 ReferenceCentral Liaoning 0.303 1.053 0.39South-central Liaoning 0.165 1.105 0.17Southern Liaoning 0.088 1.368 0.00

    Shuangcheng  Mean exp(B) p Mean exp(B) PHousehold CharacteristicsParental survival Both parents alive 0.081 Reference 0.118 Reference Father alive, mother dead 0.076 0.730 0.00 0.055 0.724 0.04 Mother alive, father dead 0.142 0.779 0.00 0.210 0.826 0.10 Both parents dead 0.701 0.573 0.00 0.617 0.600 0.00# sons 1.001 0.979 0.43 1.090 1.204 0.00# adult males in household 4.121 0.993 0.37 5.488 0.991 0.43# older married brothers 0.501 1.051 0.00 1.537 1.016 0.04# older unmarried brothers 0.044 0.828 0.05 0.086 0.733 0.03# unmarried older sisters 0.001 2.116 0.08 0.000 1.978 0.50# younger brothers 0.868 0.982 0.40 1.108 0.851 0.00# younger sisters 0.009 1.132 0.32 0.031 1.229 0.08

Socioeconomic Status# brothers with position 0.025 1.333 0.01 0.047 1.321 0.07# brothers with exam titles 0.002 1.792 0.04 0.003 1.152 0.78# cousins with position 0.035 1.019 0.83 0.021 0.650 0.15# cousins with exam titles 0.005 1.512 0.04 0.007 2.220 0.03Artisan 0.006 1.758 0.05Soldier 0.012 2.765 0.00 0.021 1.367 0.14Higher official 0.003 3.556 0.00 0.013 4.092 0.00Exam title 0.002 3.054 0.00 0.001 2.193 0.07Purchased title 0.011 0.970 0.45

Table 5. Widow Remarriage in Liaoning and Shuangcheng, 1789-1909 (controlled for age and time period.)  Shuangcheng  Mean exp(B) p Mean Exp(B) PRemarriage by next register 0.013 0.006Duration of widowhood (Reference: 0-2 years)Widowed 3-9 years 0.427 0.790 0.08 0.488 0.911 0.65Widowed 10+ years 0.468 0.631 0.01 0.308 0.714 0.28Population category

Regular ReferenceSpecialized 0.122 1.146 0.46Low 0.068 0.526 0.03ShuangchengJingqi 0.158 ReferenceTunding (Ref.) 0.842 0.847 0.48Geographical regionsNorthern Liaoning 0.375 ReferenceCentral Liaoning 0.288 0.792 0.06South-central Liaoning 0.201 0.319 0.00Southern Liaoning 0.136 0.230 0.00

  Shuangcheng  Mean exp(B) p Mean Exp(B) PHousehold characteristicsParental survivalBoth parents-in-law alive 0.069 Reference 0.067 Reference Father-in-law alive, mother-in law dead 0.041 1.471 0.07 0.027 0.593 0.29 Mother-in-law alive, father-in-law dead 0.138 0.978 0.90 0.135 0.969 0.90 Both parents-in-law dead 0.752 1.025 0.88 0.771 0.866 0.57# of sons 1.488 0.644 0.00 1.665 0.464 0.00# Adult Males in Household 3.621 0.968 0.08 4.426 0.968 0.19# older married brothers-in-law 1.113 0.924 0.00 1.192 0.973 0.21# older unmarried brothers-in-law 0.088 1.450 0.00 0.062 1.325 0.10# younger brothers-in-law 0.378 0.896 0.21 0.314 1.036 0.75# younger sisters-in-law 0.011 0.793 0.49 0.017 1.053 0.80Socioeconomic Status# brothers-in-law with position 0.042 0.563 0.17 0.034 0.826 0.68# cousins-in-law with position 0.033 0.245 0.04 0.012 1.188 0.78# cousins-in-law with exam titles 0.009 1.851 0.18Husband was soldier 0.036 0.334 0.06 0.036 0.493 0.23Husband was higher official 0.007 1.010 0.99Husband had exam title 0.007 1.245 0.99Husband had purchased title 0.012 0.781 0.99

ReproductionMajor questions

• Was age-specific marital fertility lower in China than in the West?– Now seems to be broad agreement that it was

• Was fertility related to economic conditions, household circumstances, family context?– Also seems to be broad agreement that it was

• Remaining question: was fertility behavior deliberate?– Or just a side-effect of other behaviors like migration, etc.?

• See Campbell, Cameron and James Lee. 2010. "Fertility control in historical China revisited: New methods for an old debate." History of the Family. 15:370-385. doi:10.1016/j.hisfam.2010.09.003.