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Climate services in a changing climate
– Hong Kong Experience
T C Lee
Hong Kong Observatory
Content
• Evolution of climate services and main drivers
• Global trend of climate services
• Key components of modern climate services
• Climate services – Hong Kong experience
• Some future challenges
Climate Services – past and present
Past focuses
- Data collection (data warehouse)
- Data provision services (mostly one sided)
- Statistical analysis of weather records (e.g. 30 year climate normal)
- Climatological studies
- Mainly national scale and general applications
Present focuses
- Climate monitoring products (climate change, ENSO, monsoon, etc.)
- Multi-time scale climate predictions (e.g. monthly, seasonal, etc.)
- Wide range of tailored services for various sectors
- User engagements
- Decision-making support
- Multi-disciplinary climate impact studies
- Local, national and global scales
Some of the main drivers of changes
New technologies - satellite, radar, automatic weather stations,
telecommunications and supercomputing helped climatologists to collect more
climate data and better understand climate systems (e.g. ENSO, AO, PDO, UHI)
Climate modeling – the advancement in climate modelling increases the skills of
climate prediction and makes climate projection possible
Climate change and extreme weather – increasing need to monitor and
understand climate change as well as assessing potential impacts
Socio-economic growth – continuous growth in population and urban
development makes the society more complicated and increasingly sensitive to
weather and climate
Internet and social media – climate information has become a hot topic online
(e.g. extreme weather, climate change, ENSO, etc.)
Big data – riding on the upsurge of “Big Data” concept in recent years, climate
information has become an integral part of the mountain of data to be analyzed
and utilized.
Global trend of climate services
• World Climate Conference
• WMO structure related to climatology and climate services
• Regional Climate Centers
• Global Framework for Climate Services • WMO Cross-cutting urban focus
World Climate Conference (WCC) –
a world conference of experts on climate and mankinds
1st WCC in 1979 – creation of the World Climate Programme of WMO to
improve understanding of climate system and its impact on society
2nd WCC in 1992 – setting up of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Global Climate
Observing Systems (GCOS)
3rd WCC in 2009 – endorsed the concept of Global Framework for
Climate Services (GFCS)
(photo sources : WMO)
WMO structure related to climatology and climate services
ICSU - the International Council for Science
IOC - the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO
UNEP – UN Environment Programme
Commission for
Climatology
Global Framework for Climate Services
(GFCS) &
WMO Cross-cutting urban focus
World Climate
Programme
(WCP)
World Climate Research
Programme (WCRP) (Co-sponsored by
the WMO, ICSU and IOC)
Global Climate Observing System
(GCOS) (Co-sponsored by WMO, IOC, UNEP
and ICSU)
World Climate Services
Programme
(WCSP)
The Global Programme of
Research on Climate Change
Vulnerability, Impacts and
Adaptation (PROVIA)
Su
pp
ort
WMO Regional Climate Centers (RCCs)
RCCs are centres of excellence that create regional products including long-
range forecasts that support regional and national climate activities, and thereby
strengthen the capacity of WMO Members in a given region to deliver better
climate services to national users.
(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/rcc/rcc.php)
In RA II, the Beijing Climate Center (BCC), China, and the Tokyo Climate Center
(TCC), Japan were designated as RCC Beijing and RCC Tokyo, respectively, in
2009. The North Eurasian Climate Center (NEACC), Russian Federation, was
designated as a new RCC (RCC Moscow) in 2013.
(http://www.rccra2.org/)
Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts
(GPCLRFs)
WMO designated GPCLRFs adhere to certain well-defined standards, aiding the
consistency and usability of:
• fixed forecast production cycles
• standard sets of forecast products
• WMO-defined verification standards (for retrospective forecasts)
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/gpc/gpc.php
全球氣候服務框架 http://gfcs.wmo.int/
Historic evolution of the Global Framework for Climate Services
Vision of GFCS
The vision of the Framework is to enable society to manage better the
risks and opportunities arising from climate variability and change,
especially for those who are most vulnerable to climate-related hazards.
This will be done through developing and incorporating science-based
climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice.
Five overarching goals:
• Reducing the vulnerability of society to climate-related hazards through better
provision of climate information;
• Advancing the key global development goals through better provision of
climate information;
• Mainstreaming the use of climate information in decision-making;
• Strengthening the engagement of providers and users of climate services; and
• Maximizing the utility of existing climate service infrastructure.
全球氣候服務框架 http://gfcs.wmo.int/
GFCS of the World
Meteorological Organization
(WMO) provides a worldwide
mechanism for coordinated
actions to enhance the quality,
quantity and application of
climate services. The five
priority areas of GFCS include
agriculture and food security,
water, health, energy and
disaster risk reduction.
Water Agriculture and food security
Health Disaster risk reduction
Energy
The 5 Pillars of GFCS :
User Interface Platform: a structured means for users, climate researchers and climate
information providers to interact at all levels;
Climate Services Information System: the mechanism through which information about
climate (past, present and future) will be routinely collected, stored and processed to
generate products and services that inform often complex decision-making across a wide
range of climate-sensitive activities and enterprises;
Observations and Monitoring: to ensure that climate observations and other data
necessary to meet the needs of end users are collected, managed and disseminated and
are supported by relevant metadata;
Research, Modelling and Prediction: to foster research towards continually improving
the scientific quality of climate information, providing an evidence base for the impacts of
climate change and variability and for the cost-effectiveness of using climate information;
Capacity Development: to address the particular capacity development requirements
identified in the other pillars and, more broadly, the basic requirements for enabling any
Framework-related activities to occur.
The Structure of the Global Framework for Climate Services
Urbanization in the World More than half of world’s population is now living in urban areas
Wet or Dry
Fog/Mist/Haze
Thunderstorms (tornadoes and hail)
Squall Lines
Rainstorms
Tropical Cyclones
Winter Storms
Heat Waves
Cold Spells
Climate change
Connecting weather / climate events with potential risk
of urban complexes
New Urban Agenda
UN General Assembly Dec 2015
UN Habitat III Conf.
(Oct 2016)
Social inclusion and ending poverty
Urban prosperity and opportunities
Environmentally sustainable and resilient urban development
EC 68 (June 2016)
WMO Cg-17 (2015)
Implementation (Decision 15)
Establish a WMO cross-cutting urban focus (Res 68)
WMO Cross Cutting Urban Focus Integrated weather, climate, hydrological and
related environment services that support urban issues
Working Group under
EC
Priority Areas/Guide
Framework of pilot implementation
Reinvigorate sustainable urbanization
Outcome
WMO Cross Cutting Urban Focus in response to UN’s New Urban Agenda
WMO “Integrated Weather, Climate and Environmental Services” Initiative
Weather
Weather and climate modeling
Mutli-scale / Seamless
weather predictions (minutes-months-annual &
regional to city scale)
High impact weather forecasts
Climate
GFCS (Water, DRR, Energy, Food, Health)
Climate information
Climate change projections
(decades to centuries)
Environmental
Urban environment monitoring (air quality, chemical constituents, GHG
emission and weather elements)
Air pollution modeling and
forecasts
Partnership and Stakeholder Engagement
Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems
Emergency Preparedness
Disaster Risk Reduction
User Routine
Operations / Planning
Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation
Sustainable Development
Urban Planning
Infrastructure & Building
Design
Big Data and Smart City Research Development Outreaching and Public
Education
Applications
Key components of modern climate services
• Climate observations
• Climate data management
• Climate monitoring and assessment
• Climate predictions and projections
• Climate risk management/adaptation
• Public education/outreaching
Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)
GCOS is a joint undertaking of the WMO, IOC, UNEP an ICSU. Its goal is to
provide comprehensive information on the total climate system, involving a
multidisciplinary range of physical, chemical and biological properties, and
atmospheric, oceanic, hydrological, cryospheric and terrestrial processes.
GCOS Surface Network (GSN) GCOS Upper Air Network (GUAN)
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/index.php
1. Climate observations
WMO Regional Basic Climate Network (RBCN)
The WMO Regional Associations define RBCN to provide a good representation
of climate on the regional scale. Standard reports on climate elements are
routinely produced by RBCN stations and CLIMAT report is the main of such
reports which is produced for international exchange.
National Climate Observation Network
Many WMO Members also operate their own national climate observation network
to support climate services at national scale (e.g. China Climate Observing
System)
(Source : http://www.cma.gov.cn/en2014/climate/featutes/201409/t20140922_262081.html )
WMO Recognition of Long-term
Observing Stations
Sonnblick Observatory, Austria
https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/what-we-
do/observations/long-term-observing-stations
The May 2017 WMO Executive Council
meeting recognized a first set of WMO
long-term observing stations
2. Climate Data Management
Key items include :
• Climate database, metadata and data quality assurance WMO Guidelines on Climate Data Management (WMO-TD No. 1376) http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/documents/WCDMPNo60.pdf
• Climate information provision for different users via a wide range of channels
Climate information for adaptation and development needs
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/cca/documents/WMO_1025_web_E.pdf
• Data recovery and rescue WMO Data rescue and archives initiative
https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/what-we-do/observations/data-rescue-
and-archives
Climate database, metadata, data quality assurance and data dissemination
Hong Kong as an example
Processes involved in data recovery and rescue
(photo source : WMO)
3. Climate monitoring and assessment
Climate monitoring products
(i) Climate re-analysis (e.g. NCEP, ECMWF, CMA, JMA, etc.)
(ii) Report / summary of climate status (e.g. status WMO Statement on the
Status of the Global Climate)
(iii) Monitoring of key climate systems and impacts (e.g. ENSO, AO, MJO, etc.)
(iv) Significant climate events
(Photo sources : WMO, NOAA)
Climate change detection/monitoring
Annual average temperatures in the contiguous US
(Source : WMO, NOAA and SMB)
Seasonal or long range forecasts from
Regional Climate Centres / National Climate Centres
4. Climate predictions and projections
Monthly precipitation categories forecast from BCC
1.5 month outlook of precipitation probability from NOAA
Climate projections (decadal to centennial)
UK Climate Projection (UKCP09) project by UKMO
http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/
Pictures of the future Climate scenarios by KNMI of the Netherlands
http://www.climatescenarios.nl/
• Sector specific services (tailored products and indices)
(e.g. energy, agriculture, water resources, transportation, etc.)
• Climate impact assessment and disaster risk reduction
(e.g. risk of flooding, drought, landslides, wildfires, etc.)
• Cross-cutting partnership and stakeholder engagement
(e.g. research collaboration, user forum/meeting, new service development, etc.)
5. Climate risk management/adaptation
Use Cases – Pollen forecast
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/pollen-forecast
Pollen forecast provided by combining weather data with detailed breakdown
of different types of pollen and their peak times within a season.
(source : UKMO)
Potential uses of weather and climate
information by tourism operators and
travel planners ETA: estimated time of arrival
(Ref: Scott DJ, Lemieux CJ, Malone L (2011) Climate services to support sustainable tourism and adaptation to climate
change. Clim Res 47:111-122. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00952 )
6. Public education/outreaching
Conduct various public education and outreaching activities to promote better
use of climate services, understanding of climate science, and scientific basis
and awareness of climate change.
• Webpage
• Social media
• Educational resources and school talks
• Cooperation with NGOs
Climate change webpage of NASA
Climate related exhibits in the Science Museum of London
Director of HKO giving talks on extreme
weather to government officials
Hierarchy of National Climate Services
Types of climate products and services by category of national climate services
(source : Implementation plan of the GFCS)
Climate services in Hong Kong
and their applications in urban living
Development in Hong Kong over the last century
c.1880s
(Source : CO 1069-447-53 National Archives UK https://www.flickr.com/photos/nationalarchives/7838570400/)
2014
Weather and climate monitoring in Hong Kong
• Long term meteorological observations at Hong
Kong Observatory (HKO) headquarters since
1884
• Upper air sounding at King’s Park (KP) since
1950s
• Dense automatic weather station and raingauge
networks over Hong Kong since 1985 (including
those operated by Drainage Services Department
and Geotechnical Engineering Office)
• Other remote sensing systems (e.g. radar,
lightning location network, wind profilers, lidars,
etc.)
KP HKO LLIS TMS
• HKO has been regularly publishing meteorological observations at its headquarters since
1884, apart from a break from 1940 to 1946 due to World War II
• To enhance climate service, HKO’s Climatological Information Service webpage was
recently upgraded to provide one-stop-shop online access to more than 130 years of
climate data and relevant statistics of Hong Kong
(http://www.weather.gov.hk/cis/climat_e.htm)
Climate Information Dissemination & Accessibility
Statistics on the use of climate data in Hong Kong
Most popular elements :
Wind, Rainfall & Temperature
Major users other the public :
Government departments,
Engineering consultants, & Academic
Applications of century-long climate information in Hong Kong
Climate Information
Infrastructure design and city planning
(Sea Wall Design, Port Work, Drainage Design, Water Resource Management, etc.)
(Climate Change, Climate Projection, Climate and Health, Water Resource, etc.)
Climate partnership
(Health sector, Academia, Farming Community, Energy Sector, etc.)
Climate research
Climate information, statistics and relevant future projections of Hong Kong as well as expert advice, in particular on extreme weather events, were provided for the establishment and regular review of the engineering design standards and codes of practices appropriate to local conditions for protecting public safety. Examples :
• Code of Practice on Wind Effects for buildings • Drainage design and flood control • Port Work Design Manual • Slope Safety
Climate Information for Infrastructure Design
(Photo courtesy : CEDD, DSD and BD)
The Wind Climate of Hong Kong Urbanization is a great challenge to the air ventilation in a city. Wind observations in
the past decades provide useful information of the wind climate of different parts of
Hong Kong and the long term changes
Air Ventilation and Urban Planning
Help assess and regulate the impact of potential
city, community and building developments on
local air ventilation
By analysing and evaluating climate wind data
together with different geometric and urban
development data (e.g. land use, greening, building
density, topography), “Urban Climatic Maps” by the
CUHK divides the territory into different urban
climate zones, each with recommended planning
and development actions
(courtesy by Planning Department)
Source : http://www.pland.gov.hk/pland_en/p_study/prog_s/ucmapweb/ucmap_project/content/content.html
Climate and Health Studies
The Observatory has been collaborating with tertiary institutions and relevant government departments to study the impacts of climate/weather on human health in Hong Kong in recent years, including thermal stress, infectious disease and vector-borne disease
Thermal Stress The impact of cold and hot weather on senior citizens in Hong Kong (HKO and Senior
Citizen Home Safety Association) Development of Hong Kong Heat Index (HKO and JC School of Public Health and
Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK)) Infectious Disease (HKO and Department of Microbiology, CUHK) Seasonal influenza activity in Hong Kong and its association with meteorological
variations Rotavirus Activity and Meteorological Variations Seasonality of Common Respiratory Viruses in Hong Kong
Vector-borne Disease (HKO and Food and Environmental Hygiene Department) A climate model for predicting the abundance of Aedes mosquitoes in Hong Kong
Papers published can be found at : http://www.hko.gov.hk/climate_change/publication_hko_e.htm
• jointly conducted a study on influenza and climate in Hong Kong.
• The daily number of laboratory-confirmed influenza A and B cases admitted to the Prince
of Wales Hospital and the weather data recorded at the Observatory’s automatic weather
station at Shatin from 1997 to 2006 were used for the study.
Seasonal variations of Influenza in Hong Kong
• 2 peaks for influenza A
• Winter/spring peak - Feb / Mar
• Summer peak – Jun / July
• 1 (2 in some yrs) peak for influenza B
• Major: Winter/spring peak - Feb / Mar
• Minor, less consistent: Summer peak – 4 out of 10 yr
Influenza B Influenza A
HKO + Microbiology Department of CUHK
Favourable climatic zones for influenza A
(Ref : Chan, Paul K.S., H.Y. Mok, T.C. Lee, Ida M.T. Chu, W.Y. Lam and Joseph J.Y. Sung, 2009 : Seasonal Influenza Activity in Hong Kong and its
Association With Meteorological Variation, Journal of Medical Virology 81:1797–1806)
Climate Services for the Energy Sector
• Greater climate resilience and
adaptation across the sector;
• Efficiency and reduction of energy
consumption; and
• The growing renewables sub-sector.
(Reference : http://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/climate-services-energy-sector-new-priority-area-gfcs)
Development and application of targeted climate products and services through
the GFCS can help improve efficiency and reduce risk associated with hydro-
meteorological hazards affecting energy systems, in particular to support:
Assessing the Renewable Energy Potential Analyses of the long term climate data measured by the Observatory provide information on
the potential of renewable energy resources in Hong Kong. Such information has been found
useful for relevant feasibility and site selection studies
Distribution of mean wind power density in Hong Kong Solar radiation monitoring in Hong Kong
HKO + CLP Power Saving Energy through Weather Watch
Climate data and user energy consumption data >> CLP’s energy consumption forecast
model for each high consumption client
9-day weather forecast >> consumption forecast model >> 9-day “Energy Consumption
Forecast” in CLP’s Meter Online Services*
Timely energy-saving measures could be taken in response to early alerts of high
consumption days under hot weather situations for high energy consumption clients.
* CLP Meter Online services.
https://www.clponline.com.hk/MyBusiness/CustomerService/MeterOnline/Documents/CLP_MeterOnlineLeaflet.pdf
(Photo courtesy of CLP Power)
Peak loading
Forecast daily consumption
Rainfall and Water Resource Management
Rainfall data collected in Hong Kong and nearby areas are useful in various aspects of water resource management. In recent years, about 80 percent of the fresh water demands of Hong Kong are supplied from the Dongjiang River Basin.
High Island Reservoir
Rainfall distribution in Hong Kong (1981-2010)
(Courtesy of SCMP, http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/1838499/turning-tide-could-leave-hong-kong-deep-water)
Reservoir yield prediction
Provide reference for WSD to assess the quantity of water to be imported from Dongjiang
HKO + Water Supplies Department (WSD)
• Annual outlook
- Annual rainfall in tercile category
- No. of tropical cyclones within 500 km of HK, onset of tropical cyclone season
- Probability of annual mean temperature reaching top 10 positions
• Seasonal forecast
- Average seasonal temperature and total rainfall in tercile category
• Experimental monthly forecast (internal ref., special users)
- Monthly temp. and rainfall in quantitative terms
- No. of cold surges
- TC activities in South China Sea / within 500 km of HK
Climate Predictions
Observed climate change in Hong Kong over the last century
Climate Change Monitoring and Research
Climate projections for temperature, rainfall and sea level in the future
Sub-hour to
Hours
Days Weeks Month Season Annual Decades Century
Site
District
Territory
-wide
Nowcasting &
Site specific forecasts
Weather forecasts (1-9 days) Extended outlook*, Seasonal forecast &
Annual outlook Climate projections
Various weather warnings
and advisories
Weather services time scale Climate services time scale
Weather and climate services in Hong Kong
- spatial and temporal coverage
* Extended outlook for min/max temperatures up to 14 days ahead launched in June 2017
Promoting Awareness on Climate Change and Extreme Weather
• Educational TV programme
• Cool Met Stuff (regular TV programme)
• Pamphlet
• Open day
• Blogs
• School and public talks
(with partners from the engineering
sector and other gov. depts)
Some future challenges
• Historical Data Recovery and Rescue
• Big Data Storage and Sharing
• Social Media and New Communication Platforms
• Impact-based forecast
1. Historical Data Recovery and Rescue
Big data requires digital data for communication and sharing. Many historical
information are still kept in paper format.
Some of them may even be stored in not desirable conditions. They urgently need
to be protected and digitized before further deteriorating and information loss.
(Source : Rick Crouthamel https://www.flickr.com/photos/108128644@N07/14035614612/in/photostream/)
Old weather reports at risk Stored in order in A/C room
2. Big Data Storage and Sharing
Huge and ever increasing amounts of data being generated each second around the
world. Yet, explosive growth of data expected in the next 5 years by the meteorological
community.
"Big Data" requires :
• very large capacity data storage and high speed communication facilities
• well planned data management and dissemination strategies
• fair and efficient data sharing platform/network
• strong partnership and stakeholder engagement
(Ref : Jiao, M., 2016: Challenges and Opportunities to NMHS in Big Data Era – what is happening and will happen. Commission for Basic
Systems Technical Conference 2016, 21-22 November 2016, Guangzhou, China. )
3. Social Media and New Communication Platforms
The presence of social media (e.g. Facebook, Twitter, IG, Whatsapp, Line, WeChat,
Snapchat, etc.) is re-shaping the traditional media and information sharing approach.
However, data, reports, and even “social media forecasting” circulating around social media
are always subject to uncertainty and accuracy issues. Posing a challenge to public
communication and crisis management.
Real and fake hail photos appeared on
social media during the hailstorm in
Hong Kong on 30 March 2014 !
(Courtesy of Ms Susanna Cheung)
(Source : http://w9lw.farlowconsulting.com/2016/01/02/why-
you-wont-find-irresponsible-weather-forecasting-here/)
“Long-range forecasts” of US
storms on social media in Jan 2016
Widespread of rumour via social media
on timing of tropical cyclone signals
during Super Typhoon Haima in Oct
2016. HKO responded by issuing a
“Weather Note” on its website to
quickly stop further spreading of the
rumour.
(Rumour ends at a wise
person's ears)
4. Impact-based forecast
An accurate and timely forecast or warning does not guarantee safety of life or
prevention of major economic loss if the potential impacts of the concerned
weather change or inclement weather are not fully understand and proper
responded by the users or general public.
One of the priorities of NHMSs in coming years will be on the development of
impact-based and risk-based public weather services in collaboration with
different weather-sensitive stakeholders.
This will involve the development of more sophisticated forecasting system
through analyzing various weather-related information and multi-disciplinary
data by the application of crowd-sourcing and big data analytics.
THANK YOU
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