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Prof Brendan Mackey, Director Griffith Climate Change Response Program
Griffith University, Queensland www.griffith.edu.au/climate-change-response-program
Climatescienceupdate&impactsfor
Queensland
Public Seminar Cobb +Co. Museum, Toowoomba
Renew Toowoomba Branch 17 May 2019
https://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/107817
…IbelieveweshouldaimtohaveaconventiononglobalclimatechangereadybythetimetheWorldConferenceonEnvironmentandDevelopmentmeetsin1992.ThatwillbeamongthemostimportantconferencestheUnitedNationshaseverheld.Ihopethatweshallallacceptaresponsibilitytomeetthistimetable…”
“….TheUnitedKingdomthereforeproposesthatweprolongtheroleoftheInter-governmentalPanelonClimateChangeafteritsubmitsitsreportnextyear,sothatitcanprovideanauthoritativescientificbaseforthenegotiationofthisandotherprotocols……Wecanthenagreetotargetstoreducethegreenhousegases,andhowmuchindividualcountriesshouldcontributetotheirachievement…
Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher - Eco Warrior - SpeechtoUnitedNationsGeneralAssembly1989Nov8
AgroupofstudentstrackedMrAbbottdowninalocalcafeaftertheprotestandvoicedtheirconcernstohim.Herespondedtothestudents'questions,tellingthem"theearthhassurvivedmanythings".Healsotoldthemhedidn'tbelievethe"environmentalcatastrophe"predictedbyscientistswouldcomeabout."I'mnotsayingthatthereisn'tgoingtobesometimeinthefuturewhen,forwhateverreason,thingscometoanend,butIdon'tbelievethatmodestincreasesofatmosphericcarbondioxideconcentrationsoverthenextfewdecadesareboundtobringaboutthekindofenvironmentalcatastrophethatyouseemtofear."
ByLauraChungandJennyNoyesMay4,2019—8.30am
The science is “in” on human forcing of natural processes that drive Earth’s climate system
MitigationImpacts,vulnerability&adaptation
Current&futureclimate
We know the climate is changing abnormally from observed weather data
And we can scientifically project future climate using models
But not toy models, like Lego models
www.stedscathedral.uk
…I mean scientific models
Climate models can correctly replicate recent warming only if they include human influences
Source: IPCC (2013), Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Figure 10.21.
Black=observed Blue=modelnatural Pink=modelnatural+human
• Theclimatewillcontinuetochangeforever
• Thenew(climatic)norm,isno(climatic)norm
• Climate-riskprofileswillcontinuetochange“forever”
Adapting to manage climate-related risks is no longer optional
Hazards, impacts & risks change for Queensland & Gold Coast from current and future climate
• Heat waves • Floods • Coastal erosion • Great Barrier Reef • Catastrophic fires • Dangerous jelly fish • Financial risks
Heat waves
Observed warming
Source:BureauofMeteorology,StateoftheClimate2016,page7
Observed change in extreme heat events
https://app.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/dashboard/#responseTab1
Heat waves
Floods
Astheclimatewarms,heavyrainfallisexpectedtobecomemoreintense,basedonthephysicalrelationshipbetweentemperatureandthewater-holdingcapacityoftheatmosphere.Forheavyrain
days,totalrainfallisexpectedtoincreasebyaround7percentperdegreeofwarming.Forshort‑duration,hourly,extremerainfallevents,observationsinAustraliagenerallyshowalargerthan7
percentincrease.Short-durationrainextremesareoftenassociatedwithflashflooding.
Source:BureauofMeteorology,StateoftheClimate2016,page7
Observed change in rainfall
• Astheclimatewarms,heavyrainfall isexpectedtobecomemore intense,basedonthephysicalrelationshipbetweentemperatureandthewater-holdingcapacityoftheatmosphere
• For heavy rain days, total rainfall is expected to increase by around 7 per cent perdegreeofwarming
• Forshort‑duration,hourly,extremerainfallevents,observationsinAustraliagenerallyshowalargerthan7percentincrease
• Short-durationrainextremesareoftenassociatedwithflashflooding
(Source:BureauofMeteorology,StateoftheClimate2016,page8)
How will rainfall change in the future?
Image:ABCWeatherbyKateDoyle15February,
TheBureauofMeteorology(BOM)hasreleasedaspecialclimatereview,officiallycallingtheraininnorthQueensland"exceptional".
HinzeDam
What should be allowed to be built downstream from the Hinze Dam?
…raisingHinzeDamtostage3isthelaststructuralfloodmitigationopportunityfortheCity.IftheCityfindsaneedtoreduceitsflood
riskinfuture,thereisnoviablestructuralmitigationalternativetogenerateany
substantialreductioninfloodrisk.
MaintainingfloodplanninglevelsatHinzeDamStage2benefitstheentireGoldCoast
communityandnoonewillbeworseoff.
Willclimatechangealterthe1:100yearfloodlevel?
Coastal erosion
TheA-LineisGoldCoastCity’smaindefenseagainst
stormsundercurrentclimate,butwillitsufficeunderfuture
climate?
Cost=$2,000permx18,000m=$436million
Will coastal erosion increase under future climate?
The solution as a new plan called Deltaplan which revitalize 3,700 km of dikes and
dams including an immense seawall costing $ 2.5 billion
The Netherlands Solution
In 1953, a massive North Sea flood disintegrated all the dikes, dams,
and sea walls, once again washing away everything that stood in its
path. The floods resulted in 1,836 deaths, 200,000 animal casualties,
and flooded 200,000 hectares of land. It was realized that a solution
had to be found- and quickly
Great Barrier Reef
Source:BureauofMeteorology,StateoftheClimate2016,page7
Great Barrier Reef Bleaching 2016-2017
Why does it matter? Coralreefsareprojectedtodeclinebyafurther70–90%at1.5oC(highconfidence)withlargerlosses(>99%)at2oC(veryhighconfidence)GBREcmploy63,000people,bring$6.4Btoeconomyandhasanassetvalueof$56B
How close are we to 1.5°C? • Human-inducedwarminghasalreadyreachedabout1°Cabovepre-industrial
levelsatthetimeofwritingofthisSpecialReport• Bythedecade2006–2015,humanactivityhadwarmedtheworldby0.87°C
comparedtopre-industrialtimes(1850–1900)• Ifthecurrentwarmingratecontinues,theworldwouldreachhuman-induced
globalwarmingof1.5°Caround2040
Sources:IPCC1.5DegreeSpecialReportDeloitteAccessEconomics2017Image:GreatBarrierReefFoundation
Source:
Catastrophic fires
Oldfiredangerratings newfiredangerratings
On Wednesday, Rockhampton Airportrecorded catastrophic [fire] conditions forapproximatelythree-and-a-halfhoursThis was the first time this district hasrecorded catastrophic conditions and themostprolongedeventinQueenslandsincethe implementation of the current FireDangerRatingSystemin2010“When one looks at the charcoal recordswith Aboriginal burning, we haven't seenany indicators that show that there hadbeenmass fires or large intense fires likewe are seeing today, or 'mega-fires', as Iwouldcallthem”
Queensland's'abnormal'bushfireslinkedtoclimatechangeABCWeatherByKateDoyleandLucyMurrayUpdated1Dec2018,6:51am
“Thereneedstobeaparadigmshiftinthewaywelookatfireandthewaywethinkaboutfire”
SarahPerkins-Kirkpatrick,futurefellowatUNSW'sclimatechangeresearchcentre
Former fire chiefs warn Australia unprepared for escalating climate threat |Australianews|TheGuardian
www.theguardian.com10April2019Two dozen former fire and emergency chiefs from all over Australia want the next primeministertoensureemergencyserviceshavetheresourcestofightnaturaldisasterscausedbyclimatechange.
Source:https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/09/former-fire-chiefs-warn-australia-unprepared-for-escalating-climate-threat
Dangerousjellyfish
Irukandji jellyfish?
Financial risks
Between2011and2016,45extremeweatherevents caused $13 billion damage to publicassets and infrastructure. Insured damage toprivate assets in declared disaster events isvalued at $8.6 billion in the 10 years to 2016[QldCRP]
Thepropertymarket isexpected to lose$571billioninvalueby2030duetoclimatechangeandextremeweather,andwillcontinuetolosevalue in the coming decades if emissionsremainhigh[ClimateCouncil]
By2050,climatechangeisprojectedtohalvetheirrigatedagriculturaloutputoftheMurray-DarlingBasinregion,whichcurrentlyaccountsfor50%ofAustralia’sirrigatedagriculturaloutputbyvalue(about$7.2billionperyear)[ClimateCouncil]
Counting the costs
Source:https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/17/mark-carney-tells-global-banks-they-cannot-ignore-climate-change-dangers
Thereistimetolimitglobalwarmingtobelow1.5degreethreshold
Source: IPCC1.5Degree SpecialReport
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