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Climate recap and outlookClimate recap and outlook
Nate Mantua, PhDUniversity of WashingtonClimate Impacts Group
Nate Mantua, PhDUniversity of WashingtonClimate Impacts Group
The Climate Impacts Group
• Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change
• Supported by NOAA Climate Program
http://cses.washington.edu/cig/
3
Current drought
5
Accumulated Precip for the past year
Source:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/
precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml
Accumulated Precip for the past yearAccumulated Precip for the past year
Source:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/
precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml
Accumulated Precip for the past yearAccumulated Precip for the past year
Source:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/
precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml
Daily TemperaturesDaily Temperatures
+.51ºC+.51ºC +1.16ºC+1.16ºC
Last year’s outlook
Last year’s outlook
tropical ocean
temperatures:
a weak El Niño is underway
Multi-model forecast summary
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DJF temp 2004-05
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JFM temp
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FMA temp
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Nov precip
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DJF precip 2004-05
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JFM precip
NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 16, 2004
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FMA precip
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Global Ocean Surface Temperatures: July 24-Oct
22 2005
The PDO has been less
prominent since the early
1990s-present
From Bond et al. 2003, Geophysical Research
Letters, Vol 30: 2183-2186.
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/~spillane/npac/NPAC-WinterSST.html
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
leading patterns of N. Pac. SST since 1950
PDO
“Victoria Pattern”
PDO index
Victoria pattern
index
• The PDO pattern was strong from 1950s through the 1980s• The Victoria pattern was strong + from the 1999 through 2003• In the winter of 2004-2005 North Pacific SSTs similar to the average from 1992-1995From Bond et al. 2003, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 30: 2183-
2186.
Phase plot for the 2 leading patterns of
North Pacific wintertime SSTs (5
yr avgs)
50s-mid70s
late 70s/late
80s
x 2005x 2005
1999/2003
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Tropical climate and ENSO
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/l http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/
25http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/
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Oct 12 NOAA CPC ENSO forecasts
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/ensoforecast.html
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IRI ENSO Forecast Summary
• Forecasts from October 2005 call for Nino34 ranging from -0.2 to +0.6, with an average of ~+0.2
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html#figure
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Pacific Ocean Outlook Summary
•Current forecasts rate ENSO-neutral as most likely situation for fall-winter 2005/06
•PDO: A simple forecast with skill relies on “PDO persistence + ENSO influence” (see Newman et al. (2003), J. Climate)
•Expect very weak warm phase PDO conditions for fall/winter •PDO = +0.2 to +0.6 st devs for Nino34 = -0.2 to +0.6
•A Note on Last year…
July-June averages Forecast Observed
Nino3.4 index
+0.4 to +1.2
+0.61
PDO index
+0.5 to +1.0
+0.65
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DJF temp 2005-06
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JFM temp 2006
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FMA temp 2006
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NOAA CPC Precipitation Forecasts
The Bottom line from CPC
The Bottom line from CPC
•“[BECAUSE ENSO IS WEAK] ALL FORECASTS REFLECT INTERDECADAL TREND MORE THAN ANY OTHER FACTOR”
• above-average winter temperature is likely
See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html
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