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Climate recap and outlookClimate recap and outlook
Nate Mantua, PhDUniversity of Washington
Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group
Boise, ID October 17, 2007
Nate Mantua, PhDUniversity of Washington
Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group
Boise, ID October 17, 2007
The CSES - Climate Impacts GroupThe CSES - Climate Impacts Group
•Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change
• Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program
•Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change
• Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program
http://cses.washington.edu/cig/
Accumulated Precip for the past yearAccumulated Precip for the past year
Source:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/
northwest_1yrprec.shtml
Accumulated Precip for the past yearAccumulated Precip for the past year
Source:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/
northwest_1yrprec.shtml
June-July-August 2007 temperature June-July-August 2007 temperature anomaliesanomaliesJune-July-August 2007 temperature June-July-August 2007 temperature anomaliesanomalies
June-July-August 2007 standardized June-July-August 2007 standardized precipitation anomaliesprecipitation anomaliesJune-July-August 2007 standardized June-July-August 2007 standardized precipitation anomaliesprecipitation anomalies
Oct 1 estimated soil moisture percentilesOct 1 estimated soil moisture percentiles
• Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at
http://www.hydro.washington.ed
u/forecast/monitor
• Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at
http://www.hydro.washington.ed
u/forecast/monitor
Last year’s outlookLast year’s outlook
•a weak to moderate El Niñoa weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons
•because of trendstrends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity weak to moderate intensity El NiñoEl Niño, above-average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely
• El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winterdry fall/winter and below below average end-of-season snow packaverage end-of-season snow pack
•a weak to moderate El Niñoa weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons
•because of trendstrends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity weak to moderate intensity El NiñoEl Niño, above-average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely
• El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winterdry fall/winter and below below average end-of-season snow packaverage end-of-season snow pack
NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006
OND precip JFM precip
http://cpc.ncep.noaa.govhttp://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
http://cpc.ncep.noaa.govhttp://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006
OND temperature JFM temperature
La Niña arrivingLa Niña arriving
• Tropical ocean temperatures have slid into La Niña territory
• Tropical ocean temperatures have slid into La Niña territory
The latest ENSO forecastsThe latest ENSO forecasts
See http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSOSee http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO
European Center
Forecast summaries
Typical winter Typical winter winds and jet winds and jet stream during stream during El Niño and La El Niño and La Niña wintersNiña winters
Average La Niña winter precip: 1916-2003
Average La Niña winter precip: 1916-2003
http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/mapshttp://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/maps
Pacific Ocean Outlook SummaryPacific Ocean Outlook Summary• Current forecasts rate La Niña as most
likely situation for 2007-08• PDO: Transiting to cool phase as La Niña
fades
• Current forecasts rate La Niña as most likely situation for 2007-08
• PDO: Transiting to cool phase as La Niña fades
Wet Winter… and possibly coolest in Wet Winter… and possibly coolest in years, but still only “EC”years, but still only “EC”Wet Winter… and possibly coolest in Wet Winter… and possibly coolest in years, but still only “EC”years, but still only “EC”
Another factor in seasonal forecastsAnother factor in seasonal forecasts
PNW December-January-February temperatures
The Bottom lineThe Bottom line
• moderate La Niña underway tilts the odds toward cool/wet, better-than-average snowpack•Additional influence from PDO might come too late to offset another factor…
– Persistent warming trends
• moderate La Niña underway tilts the odds toward cool/wet, better-than-average snowpack•Additional influence from PDO might come too late to offset another factor…
– Persistent warming trends
See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
CPC Forecasts from Sept 20CPC Forecasts from Sept 20CPC Forecasts from Sept 20CPC Forecasts from Sept 20
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