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Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options in Serbia –g p p pResults from the ADAGIO Project

D.T.Mihailović (1,1a,1b,1c), B.Lalić (1,1a), R.Jevtić (2), M. Malešević (2), Z K ić (1) Ž P ić (1) d S J ić (2)Z. Keserović (1), Ž. Petrović (1) and S. Jasnić (2)

(1) Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, SERBIA(1a) Center for Meteorology and Environmental Modelling, Department for Physics, ( ) gy g, p y ,

Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, SERBIA (1b) Visiting Professor, The New York State University, Alabany, USA(1c) Visiting Researcher, Norwegina Meteorological Institute, Oslo, NORWAY2) Institute of Field and Vegetable Crops Novi Sad SERBIA2) Institute of Field and Vegetable Crops, Novi Sad, SERBIA

“Milutin Milankovic” Climate Change Center

To my Rose

Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009

gBelgrade

ADAGIO PROJECT: RESPONSIBLE SERBIAN INSTITUTION AND CORRESPONDING CREWINSTITUTION AND CORRESPONDING CREW

“Milutin Milankovic” Climate Change Center

Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009

gBelgrade

CMEP

Among 25 universities of Central Europeg pwhich are on the list of 2000 rankinguniversities in the world. On 1227 placepAmong 5000 world working universities

Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009

http://cmep-serbia.if.ns.ac.yu/

Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009

People

University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Physicsy , y , p y

Professors (Old crew) Young professors PhD candidates (Young crew)Professors (Old crew) Young professors PhD candidates (Young crew)

D.T. Mihailovic,Head of Center

D. Kapor M. Budincevic M. Jevtic I. Arsenic A. Firanj

B. Rajkovic M. Malesevic Z. Mijatovic B. Lalic A. Cirisan I. Balaž

Climate Change in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo, 17 March 2009

New approaches

2) Modelling tools

• Parallelized regional weather forecast Non-hydrostatic model Workstation Etamodel Workstation Eta

• Operationally uses for weather forecast at space resolution 15x15 km for area of Europe with NCEP’sresolution 15x15 km for area of Europe with NCEP s GFS files for initialization and boundary conditions

• ECHAM global climate model• ECHAM global climate model• LAPS land surface scheme• BAHUS prediction occurrence of plant diseases • EMEP chemical model• NEOPLANTA UV radiation model

Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting

72 – nodes, 288 core PC cluster150 GB DDR 800 MHz RAM15 TB t it15 TB storage capacity

ECHAM l b l int ti nECHAM global integration

REGIONALnon-hydrostatic model

Meeting with the project scientific officer Dr. Armand Beuf, Novi Sad, 7 February 2008

ADAGIO STARTING POINT - SERBIA

We had nothing. After that some people had comeand then they were taking everything from us!(Serbian byword about substantial poorness)(Serbian byword about substantial poorness)

“Milutin Milankovic” Climate Change Center

Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009

gBelgrade

Reaearch

Climate change research: Current situation

At this moment we can say: THERE ARE NOT SYSTEMATIC RESEARCH IN CLIMATE CHANGE FIELDSYSTEMATIC RESEARCH IN CLIMATE CHANGE FIELD(1) The activities are going sporadically in university institutions and operationally in met serviceinstitutions and operationally in met. service(2) There is no awareness of people involved in the fundamental and aplicative researchfundamental and aplicative research(3) There is no national strategy

The starting point for the Serbian crew is:

1) We have just project tasks1) We have just project tasks2) All other things we must do. Not only to reach tasks but to do a lot additional

job3) We are starting now from the ground zero

Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting

3) We are starting now from the ground zero

Adaptation

Ad t ti li t hAdaptation on climate change in Serbiain SerbiaAt this moment we can say: THERE ARE NOT SYSTEMATIC MEASURES FOR ADAPTATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN(1) agriculture as well as other vulnerable segments of activities andg(2) lifting the level of awareness of people involved inprimarily food production exceptprimarily food production exceptOld cross breading programs for wheat resistant on high temperature and recent rural sociology research about extension mp gyservices in Vojvodina

Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting

Interview done only with the employees in the Extension Service

Adaptation

Interview done only with the employees in the Extension Serviceof Vojvodina (Serbia)

13 Agricultural stations with 207 experts199 experts were interviewed60 questions with different scale of offered possibilities

AiAim:(a) Reform of extension services in Vojvodina (Serbia) in the

transition periodtransition period(b) Establishing the neediness of the farmers for knowledge based

on the opinion of agricultural experts in Vojvodina (Serbia) inon the opinion of agricultural experts in Vojvodina (Serbia) in the transition period

(c) Establishing the optimal way for the knowledge transfer to farmers

Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting

The main goalsas the Partner 4 we havethe following responsibilities

а) On the basis the “observed” indicators about climate change in the selected regionschange in the selected regions with an intensive agricultural production we have to suggests the measures of adaptation

b) To lead the thematic ADAGIOb) To lead the thematic ADAGIO group“Adaptation on occurrence of pests and diseases на determined by climate change”

FP6 – ADAGIO – Regional Meeting, Sofia, 13-14 September 2007

JOB THAT IS DONE – SERBIAN CREW

“Milutin Milankovic” Climate Change Center

Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009

gBelgrade

1) Work on the questionnaires using correspondingmethodology (questionnaires for gathering datamethodology (questionnaires for gathering dataabout attitude of experts and farmers)

) J b h i da) Job that is done

*) Rough draft of the questionnaires (four meetings) thatthat included whole group (meteorologists,plant protection, agronomy and fruit production rural sociology experts)agronomy and fruit production, rural sociology experts)

*) Final polishing the questionnaires for#) plant protection experts#) fruit production experts#) agronomy experts and farmers#) agronomy experts and farmers

*) Sending questionnaires on 921 addresses (experts and farmers) by regular mail that then returned to us

FP6 – ADAGIO – Regional Meeting, Sofia, 13-14 September 2007

1) Work on the questionnaires using correspondingmethodology (questionnaires for gathering datamethodology (questionnaires for gathering dataabout attitude of experts and farmers)

) J b h i d

Number of Number of Number of Number of

a) Job that is done

respodents respodents questions questionsKind Experts Farmers Experts FarmersA 21/175 48/345 24 42Agronomy 21/175 48/345 24 42Plant protection 38/150 79/100 43 49Fuit production 14/50 68/101 17 27Fuit production 14/50 68/101 17 27Total 73/375

(19.4%)195/546(36%)

Simple statistics from the questionnaire features andnumber of respondents for Vojvodina Province

FP6 – ADAGIO – Regional Meeting, Sofia, 13-14 September 2007

+0.2Classical approaches Trends in annualair temperature (C)

+0.3p ( )

(1949-1999)

+0.0

0 0

-0.3

0.0

+0.2

0.0 -0.1

-0.4 -0.2 +0 3

0 2

+0.3

-0.2

Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting

+37Classical approaches Trends in annualprecipitation (mm)

-62p p ( )(1949-1999)

+35

15

-7

-15

+17

+79 +26

-55 -64 +27

40

+27

-40

Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting

FP6 – ADAGIO – Proj. No SSPE-CT-2006-044210: Први национални скуп/ irst national meeting/ 5.9.2007., Novi Sad, Srbija

Summer maximum (a) and winter minimum (b)Summer maximum (a) and winter minimum (b)

Classical approaches FP6 – ADAGIO – Proj. No SSPE-CT-2006-044210: Први национални скуп/ First national meeting/ 5.9.2007., Novi Sad, Srbija

Summer maximum (a) and winter minimum (b) Summer maximum (a) and winter minimum (b) trend distribution in Vojvodina (1974trend distribution in Vojvodina (1974--2003)2003)

(a) Summer(a) Summer (b) Winter(b) Winter

(Lalic et al., 2004)

Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting

Regional climate modelling (Djurdjevic and Rajkovic, Ann. Geophy., 2009)

ANALYSIS THAT IS DONE – SERBIAN CREW

“Milutin Milankovic” Climate Change Center

Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009

gBelgrade

Plant deseases

These research was conducted under

this

DESIMINATION – SERBIAN CREW

“Milutin Milankovic” Climate Change Center

Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009

gBelgrade

Popular desimination

#) 20 interviews on Serbian and Hungarian TV statios

#) 13 articles in farmer and other journals

#) 25 lectures on national farmer and public meetings#) 25 lectures on national, farmer and public meetings

Further activities (ADAGIO after ADAGIO)

1) At least chapter in the book (summary of the thematic groupwork)

2) P i Cli Ch Cli R h ( f h l2) Paper in Climate Change or Climate Research (summary of the compeletework)

Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009

Conferences, papers and other forms of desimination#) COST 734 5th Management Commitee Meeting Impacts of Climate Change

and Variability on European Agriculture: CLIVAGRI, Larissa, Greece(March 27-28, 2008)( , )

#) Global environmental change: Challenges to science and society inSoutheastern Europe International Conference Sofia BulgariaSoutheastern Europe International Conference, Sofia, Bulgaria (19 - 21 May 2008)

#) Symposium on Climate Change and Variability Agrometeorological Monitoring#) Symposium on Climate Change and Variability-Agrometeorological Monitoring and Coping Strategies for Agriculture, Oscarsborg, Norway

(04 - 07 June 2008)

#) iEMSs 2008, International Congress on Environmental Modelling andSoftware, Barcelona, Spain: Session “Environmental Fluid Mechanics”p(07 - 10 July 2008)

#) Conferences of EMS#) Conferences of EMS

Meeting with the project scientific officer Dr. Armand Beuf, Novi Sad, 4 September 2007

Awards

Award of the EMS for the Best Paper on the Conference for thepYoung Scientist

Meeting with the project scientific officer Dr. Armand Beuf, Novi Sad, February 2008

Books

Meeting with the project scientific officer Dr. Armand Beuf, Novi Sad, February 2008

Books

Meeting with the project scientific officer Dr. Armand Beuf, Novi Sad, February 2008

Advances in environmental

modelling and measurementsmodelling and measurements

Editors: D.T. MihailovicB LalicB. Lalic

Nova Sciences Publisher, 2010Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009

EndEnd

Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009