Climate Change - Wet Tropics

State of the Wet Tropics Report 2007 – 2008

in the Wet TropicsImpacts and Responses

Climate Change

S T A T E O F T H E W E T T R O P I C S R E P O R T 2 0 0 7 – 2 0 0 8

Table of Contents

Terms and abbreviations 4

Foreword 5

Executive summary 9

1. Introduction 13 1.1 International perspective 15

1.2 National perspective 16

1.3 Regional perspective 17

2. Wet Tropics regional climate projections 18

3. Impacts of climate change on the WTQWHA 22 3.1 Ecological and biological implications 25

of projected climate change

3.2 Effects of warming on higher altitude 27 habitats in the Wet Tropics

3.3 Effects of warming on Wet Tropics 28 higher altitude vertebrate fauna

3.4 Environmental goods and services 31

4. Management responses 34 4.1 Resilience 35

4.2 Regional planning, coordination and leadership 37

4.2.1 Integrating climate change into management 37

4.2.2 Coordination and alignment 38

4.2.3 Reducing emissions 39

4.2.4 Planning and development 40

4.2.5 Wet Tropics tourism 40

4.2.6 Maximising carbon market opportunities 41

4.3 Improving and communicating our knowledge 42 of the effects of climate change

4.3.1 Building regional capability and reducing uncertainty 42

4.3.2 Understanding social resilience 43

4.3.3 Establishment of climate change research centres 43

4.3.4 Monitoring 44

4.4 On-ground works to improve forest health 45

4.4.1 Managing environmental stress created by climate change 46

4.4.2 Managing landscape health in the face of climate change 47

4.4.3 Ecological site management 50

4.4.4 Species management 52

4.5 Increasing community awareness and 54 mobilising behavioural change

5. References 57

Terms and abbreviationsasl above sea level

CSIRO CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation

ENSO ElNiñoSouthernOscillation

FNQ FarNorthQueensland

JCU JamesCookUniversity

MTSRF MarineandTropicalSciencesResearchFacility

RRRC ReefandRainforestResearchCentre

TheArea TheWetTropicsofQueenslandWorldHeritageArea

TheAuthority TheWetTropicsManagementAuthority

UNESCO UnitedNationsEducational,ScientificandCulturalOrganisation

WTQWHA WetTropicsofQueenslandWorldHeritageArea

ForewordClimatechangeisamajorandinsidiousthreattotheecosystemsoftheWetTropicsofQueenslandWorldHeritageArea.Anticipatedchangestotemperature,rainfallandotherclimaticconditionswillcausemajorchangestoecosystemsandleadtothelossofmanyplantandanimalspeciesforwhichtheWetTropicswaslistedontheWorldHeritageregister.

ThisStateoftheWetTropicsReportfocusesontheimpactsofclimatechangeontheinternationallyrecognisedvaluesoftheWorldHeritageArea.Thereportsummarisesthelatestavailablescientificinformationaboutexpectedchangesintheforestsastheyrespondtoclimatechange.Itidentifiescurrentmanagementactionsbeingtakeninresponsetoclimatechangeandidentifiesopportunitiesforfurtheractionataregionalscale.

TheWetTropicsofQueenslandisanextraordinarilydiversenaturalasset.Thepresenceofrainforestsattheedgeofadrycontinentarisesfromararecombinationoffinelybalancedclimaticandtopographicfeatures.EvensmallchangesinclimatearelikelytohavesignificantadverseimpactsontheWorldHeritagevaluesoftheseforests.

Australia’sinternationalreputationforsustainablemanagementofitsnaturalheritageflowsfromitsperformanceinmanagingWorldHeritagepropertiessuchastheWetTropics.InjoiningtheWorldHeritageConvention,Australiaacceptedthatithasadutytoensureprotection,conservation,presentationandtransmissiontofuturegenerationsofitsWorldHeritagelistedproperties.Australiaalso

Andrew Maclean, WTMA executive director

View from Lambs’s Head

undertookto‘doallitcantothisend,totheutmostofitsownresources’(WorldHeritageConvention,Article4).

EffectiveresponsestoclimatechangeimpactsintheWetTropicshaverealeconomicbenefits.TropicalNorthQueenslandreceivesover2millioninternationalanddomesticvisitorseachyear.Thesevisitorsareprimarilydrawntotheregionbecauseofitsoutstandingnaturalfeatures,inparticular,theWorldHeritagerainforestsandreefs.InternationalvisitorsreturntotheirhomecountryhavingmadejudgementsaboutAustralia’senvironmentalmanagement.Theenvironmentalreputationoftouristdestinationsisanincreasinglyimportantfactorintouristdestinationplanningandspending.

BoththeAustralianandQueenslandGovernmentshaverecognisedthethreatofclimatechangeandbothgovernmentsaremobilisingresourcestocombatit.Thecurrentfocusofclimatechangepolicyatthenationalandstatelevelislargelyonmitigation.TheAustralianandQueenslandGovernmentsareleadingthesearchforwaystoreduceemissionsofgreenhousegasesthroughmeasuressuchasemissionstrading,supportfordevelopmentofalternativeenergysourcesandencouragingenergyconservationinhomesandbusinesses.Allofthesemeasuresareimportanttoreducetheglobalextentofclimatechange.

Whilereducinggreenhousegasemissionsisclearlyimportantatthenationalandglobalscale,ataregionalleveltheemphasismustbeonadaptingtoanticipatedclimatechanges,inadditiontosharingresponsibilityforreducingemissions.ThisrequireschangesinthewaywemanageourWorldHeritageforeststomakethemmoreresilienttothethreatofelevatedtemperatures,changingrainfallpatternsandgreaterclimaticvariability.InaddressingthethreatofclimatechangeonWorldHeritageproperties,UNESCOhasrecommendedthatWorldHeritagepropertiesserveaslaboratorieswheremonitoring,mitigationandadaptationprocessescanbeapplied,testedandimproved.

Nature based tourism

Putsimply,thebestwaytomaketheforestsoftheWetTropicsresilienttotheanticipatedadverseimpactsofclimatechangeistoensurethattheyarehealthy.Thismeansreducingoreliminatingotherthreatstoforesthealthsuchasweeds,feralanimalsanddisease;fragmentationandisolation;inappropriatefireregimes;andotherimpactsofhumanuseinandaroundtheWorldHeritageArea.

EnsuringtheWetTropicsforestsarehealthyisalreadyacoregoalofmanagement.However,thethreatofclimatechangemeansthatwemustaccelerateourprogressandensureweconsidertheresponseofforestecosystemstofutureaswellascurrentclimaticconditions.ThroughtheWetTropicsManagementAuthorityanditspartneragencies,andwiththesupportofcommunity,industryandregionallandowners,theinstitutionsandprocessesrequiredtoimplementchangearealreadymostlyinplace.Withappropriateinvestment,rapidandeffectiveactionispossible.

MakingtheWetTropicsresilienttotheanticipatedeffectsofclimatechangerequiresworkinfourkeyareas:on-groundworkstoimproveforesthealth;improvingandcommunicatingourknowledgeoftheeffectsofclimatechange;increasingcommunityawarenessandmobilisingbehaviouralchange;andregionalplanning,coordinationandleadership.

ThisreporthighlightsthemagnitudeoftheclimatechangeriskfortheWorldHeritageArea.Itestablishesaframeworkthat,withappropriategovernmentandcommunitysupport,willgiveusthebestchanceofmaintainingtheoutstandinguniversalvaluesoftheAreaforAustraliaandtheworld.

AndrewMacleanExecutiveDirectorWetTropicsManagementAuthority

Rainforest at Cow Bay

Executive summaryClimatechangecreatesmajorrisksfortheWetTropicsofQueenslandWorldHeritageArea(WTQWHA,theArea).ThisreportidentifiesthekeyvaluesoftheAreathatarevulnerabletoclimatechangeandexplainshowpredictedchangesinrainfall,temperatureandotherclimaticvariableswillaffectthese.Itidentifiesaseriesofactionsthat,withsufficientpublicandprivateinvestment,mayincreasetheresilienceoftheregiontotheanticipatedimpactsofclimatechange.

TheWorldHeritageCommitteeofUNESCOidentifiedtheWTQWHAashavingoutstandinguniversalvalueandintegrity.TheArea’sdiverselandformssupportanextraordinaryassemblageofplantsandanimals.DespitecomprisingonlyaverysmallproportionoftheAustraliancontinent.TheAreasupportsahighproportionofAustralianfloraandfauna,reflectingthediversityandbiologicalproductivityofitsecosystems.

ThedistinctiveanddiverseassemblagesofplantsandanimalsintheWetTropicsaretheresultoffinelybalancedclimaticconditionsthat,inturn,areduetothelatitudeandtopographyoftheregionanditsproximitytoeasterlywindscarryingmoisturefromthePacificOcean.Climatechangethreatenstodisrupttheseclimaticconditionsandmayresultinrapidandcatastrophicchangestotheregionalenvironmentthatwilllimittheextentofrainforestsandleadtotheextinctionofmanyoftheregion’sfaunaandflora.

ThevulnerabilityoftheWetTropicstoclimatechangehasbeenwidelyrecognised.TheWorldHeritageCentre,whichadministerstheWorldHeritageConvention,hasidentifiedtheWTQWHAasasiteatparticularriskfromevensmallchangesintemperature.UNESCOhasproposedthatWorldHeritagesitessuchastheWetTropicscouldserveasvaluablelaboratoriestostudytheimpactsofclimatechangeandtheeffectivenessofmanagementresponses.The

Rainforest, Mount Lewis

AustralianGovernment,intherecentlycompletedCarbonPollutionReductionSchemeGreenPaper[52],acknowledgedtheparticularthreatclimatechangeposesfortheWetTropics.TheQueenslandGovernmenthasalsoacknowledgedthethreattotheWetTropicsandhasestablishedclimatechangeasakeypolicydriverintherecentlyreleasedFarNorthQueenslandDraftRegionalPlan2025[11].Thislevelofrecognitionprovidesagoodbasisforinvestmentinthemeasuresrequiredtoeffectivelyrespondtotheidentifiedrisks.

ClimateprojectionsfortheWetTropicsindicatethemagnitudeofchangethattheregion’secosystemsmayencounter.Temperaturemayincreaseby1.4ºCby2030and4.2ºCby2070underhighemissionscenarios.Rainfallispredictedtobecomemoreseasonalwithawetterwetseasonandalonger,drierdryseason.Cycloneintensityispredictedtobegreater,creatingrisksofmorefrequentmajorecosystemdisruptionaswitnessedafterCycloneLarry.TheElNiñophenomenonispredictedtooccurmorefrequently,causingmorefrequentdroughtsandincreasingtheriskofbushfire,withconsequentdamagetorainforests.

ClimatechangesofthismagnitudewillhavesevereandinteractingeffectsonthevaluesoftheWTQWHA.Wecananticipatechangesintheabundanceanddistributionoffloraandfauna.Interactionsbetweenorganisms,suchaspredatorpreyrelationshipsandinsectpollination,arelikelytobedisrupted,creatingconsequentchangesinecosystemcomposition,structureandfunction.

ManyofthehighlyvaluedendemicspeciesoftheAreaareconfinedtothehigher,coolerpartsoftheregion.Modellingindicatesthatwith2ºCwarmingtheproportionoftheAreawithameanannualtemperatureof22ºCorlesswillmarkedlyreduce,diminishingtheproportionsuitableforthesethermallysensitivefauna.Thiswillsubstantiallyincreasetheriskofextinctionforseveralhighelevationendemicwildlifespecies.

DisruptionofecosystemsandchangedclimaticconditionswillmaketheAreamorevulnerabletoweed,feralanimalanddiseaseinvasion.Weedspeciesthatmaynotbeabletoinvadenativeecosystemsatpresentmaygainacompetitiveadvantageunderthewarmerdrierconditionsthatareexpected.Theriskofnewvertebrateandinsectpestsandplantandanimaldiseasesisalsolikelytoincrease.

Impacts of Cyclone Larry at Bicton Hill

Cloudstrippingisasignificantsourceoffreshwaterintheregion.Temperatureincreasesarelikelytocauseariseinthealtitudeofthecloudlayer,reducingtheareawherecloudstrippingcanoccuranddiminishingcatchmentrunoff.Reducedstreamflowswillhaveecologicalimpactsandwillalsoreducetheamountofwateravailableforirrigationandurbanwatersupply.

Climatechangewillalsocompromiseotherenvironmentalgoodsandservices.Forexample,ifthelossofrainforestvaluesbecomesobvious,theAreamaybecomelessattractivefortourists,creatingsignificanteconomicimpactsintheregion.

WhiletheoutlookfortheWTQWHAisacauseforgreatconcern,muchcanbedoneataregionalleveltoadapttotheanticipatedchanges.ThemostimportantmanagementinterventionswillbethosethatbuildecologicalresilienceinandaroundtheArea.Thefollowingfourbroadareasofactivityareproposed:

On-ground works to improve forest health –• Theprincipalmeansofachievingecosystemresilienceistobuildandmaintainecosystemhealth.Measuressuchaswildlifecorridors,limitingfurtherclearing,rehabilitationofpreviouslyclearedareas,protectingimportanthabitatrefugesandmanagingthethreatofenvironmentalpestswillallassisttostrengthenWetTropicsecosystemsagainstclimatechange.

Improving and communicating our knowledge of the effects of climate •change –RegionalresearchinstitutionssuchasCSIROandJamesCookUniversity(JCU)withsupportfromtheMarineandTropicalSciencesResearchFacility(MTSRF),havemadegoodprogressinunderstandingthe

Daintree rainforests

impactofclimatechangeintheArea.Moreworkisneededtoimprove,refineandcommunicatecurrentknowledge.ThereareopportunitiestocapitaliseonregionalresearchcapabilitythroughestablishmentofaCentreforClimateChangeAdaptationatJCUthatwoulddeliverinformationtomanagersandpolicymakerstoimproveadaptationresponses.

Increasing community awareness and mobilising behavioural change •– PrivatelandmanagerscanmakeamajorcontributiontotheadaptationworkintheWetTropics.Landandenvironmentagenciesneedtoprovideleadershipbyincreasingcommunityawarenessoftherisksofclimatechangeandhelpingcommunitiestofindregionallyrelevantwaysofadapting.Improvedlandmanagementpracticesshouldbesupportedthroughtechnicaladvice,incentivesandappropriatelandandresourcemanagementpolicies.Communitiesmustbeappropriatelyengagedindecision-makingaffectingtheirownlandorpubliclandssuchasthoseintheWTQWHA.

Regional planning, coordination and leadership• –Thisworkaimstocoordinateandaligntheeffortsofregionallandandenvironmentagenciesandprivatelandmanagerstoensureresourcesarewelltargetedandeffortisappropriatelyalignedwithagreedpriorities.Regionalinstitutionsandcommunitiesalreadyhavetheunderlyingcapabilitytotakeactionagainstclimatechangeifsupportedwithadequateresources.

Promoting cassowary habitat with Cassowary Country signs

Tree planting in the Daintree

1. IntroductionClimatechangepresentsanimmediateandurgentchallengeforbiodiversityconservationintheWetTropicsregion.Thetransformationofmuchoftheenvironmentbyagriculture,urbanisationandindustryhascreated,andcontinuestocreate,awiderangeofunintentionalexperimentsinwhichtheregion’swildlifeareexposedtosevereandnovelpressurestowhichtheywilleitherhavetoadaptorceasetoexist.Thegreatestoftheseexperimentsisnowunderway–thealterationoftheatmosphereandclimateoftheearth,withconsequencesforeverylivingthing.InthisreportweattempttosketchoutthemaintasksthattheAuthorityconsiderstheregionneedstoundertaketorespondtothischallenge.

TheforestsoftheWetTropicsofQueenslandWorldHeritageArea(WTQWHA,theArea)owetheirgenesistolong-termcyclesofchangeinclimate.Itmayseemironicthen,thatclimatechangeisnowregardedasthesinglebiggestthreattothefutureoftheoutstandinguniversalvaluesandintegrityforwhichtheAreawasinscribedontotheWorldHeritagelistin1988[1].

TheAreaisalarge(894,420ha),rugged,centralspineofthe1,976,000haWetTropicsbioregionwhichextendsfromnearCooktowninthenorthtonearTownsvilleinthesouthandborderstheGreatBarrierReefWorldHeritageAreaalongaconsiderablepartofthecoastline.Theregion’seconomydependslargelyontourismgeneratedfromtheattractionofitstwoWorldHeritageAreas.

Inthepastfewyearstherehasbeenaremarkableincreaseinthelevelofawarenessofclimatechangeworldwide.Concernsaboutcausesandeffectshavemovedbeyondtherealmofscientificdebatetothelivingroomsofpeopleeverywhere.Asevidenceaccumulates

Reef and rainforest - two World Heritage Areas

thatawarmingplanetwillcausewidespreadandmostlyharmfuleffects,scientistsandpolicymakershaveproposedvariousmitigationstrategiesthatmightreducetherateofclimatechange–anationalandinternationalresponseforthoseofficialsingovernmentwhomustplannowforanuncertainfuture.However,strategiesforadaptingtoclimatechangeataregionallevelareequallyimportant.

Althoughtheoptionsavailablefortakingadaptiveactionhavebecomebetterdefinedovertime,adaptationplanningcontinuestoinvolvemanyuncertainties.Nevertheless,itisimperativethat,inaregionasinternationallyimportantastheWetTropics,wetakeimmediateproactivestepstoincreasetheprobabilityofourbiodiversitysurviving.Wecannotbecomplacent,wehavetoomuchtolose.

TheWTQWHAisalivingmuseumcontainingoneofthemostcompleteanddiverselivingrecordsofthemajorstagesintheevolutionoflandplantsintheworld.Itconservesalargelyintactfloraandfaunawithhundredsoflocallyendemicspeciesrestrictedwithinitsboundaries.ItalsoprovidestheonlyhabitatformorerareorthreatenedspeciesandprimitiveplantsandanimalsthananywhereelseinQueensland.TheWetTropicsregion,asawhole,conserves41%ofallQueensland’svascularplantspeciesinslightlyover1%oftheState’slandarea.WithintheAustraliancontext,theWetTropicsregionisaverydistinctivebioclimaticandlandformunitwithexceptionallysteepanddiverseenvironmental

gradientsandcontainsthecountry’sgreatestvariationintopographicalrelief.SomeappreciationoftheimportanceandspeciesrichnessoftheWetTropicsbioregioncanbegainedfromthecontributionitmakestoAustralia’soverallbiodiversity.

Ravenshoe

Cooktown

Cairns

TownsvilleLegend

World Heritage Area

Bioregion

Date Produced : 6 Sept 2005Reference : j3852

The WTQWHA and the Wet Tropics bioregion

Blue ghost moth

AlthoughtheWetTropicscomprisesonly0.26%ofthetotalareaoftheAustraliancontinentitsbiodiversitysignificanceisenormous,beinghomeforthefollowingpercentagesofAustralia’sspecies[2]:

TheWetTropicsisalsocharacterisedbyaverylargenumberofrestrictedendemicspecieswhosetotalworld-widedistributionisconfinedtotheregion–insomeinstancestoasinglelocationwithintheregionsuchasamountainsummitorasmallsub-catchment.

1.1 International perspectiveTheissueoftheimpactsofclimatechangeonWorldHeritagepropertieswasbroughttotheattentionoftheWorldHeritageCommitteein2005byagroupofconcernedorganisationsandindividuals.TroubledaboutthepotentialforclimatechangetoadverselyaffectandthreatentheoutstandinguniversalvaluesandintegrityofWorldHeritageproperties,theWorldHeritageCommitteetaskedtheWorldHeritageCentreofUNESCOanditsadvisorybodies,toundertakefurtherinvestigationoftheissue.TheCommitteeendorsedtheresultingreports,PredictingandManagingtheEffectsofClimateChangeonWorldHeritage[3]andStrategytoAssistStatesPartiestoImplementAppropriateManagementResponses[4],asofficialdocumentsin2006.

TheCommitteesubsequentlyrequestedtheWorldHeritageCentretodevelopapolicydocumentontheimpactsofclimatechangeonWorldHeritageproperties.ThepolicydocumentwasadoptedbytheGeneralAssemblyofStatesPartiesin2007[5,6].ThepolicydocumentencouragesmanagersofWorldHeritagepropertiestoincludeclimatechangemessagesintheircommunication,educationandinterpretationactivitiesasappropriate;andtobuildpublicawarenessandknowledgeofclimatechange,itspotentialimpactsonWorldHeritageproperties

Bowenia spectabilis

vascularplants(26%)•fernspecies(65%) –cycadspecies(21%) –coniferspecies(37%) –orchidspecies(30%) –

birdspecies(40%)•frogspecies(29%)•

mammals(35%)•marsupialspecies(30%) –batspecies(58%) –rodentspecies(25%) –

reptilespecies(20%)•freshwaterfishspecies(42%)•butterflyspecies(58%).•

andtheirvalues,andactivitiesoravailableoptionsforadaptationandmitigation.ThisreporthasbeenpreparedtoprovidesuchamessageabouttheimpactsofclimatechangeontheWTQWHAandoptionsforadaptation.

Thepolicydocument[6]reiteratedthattheprimaryobjectiveofWorldHeritagemanagementistosafeguardtheoutstandinguniversalvaluesandintegrityofWorldHeritageproperties.ThedocumentalsorecommendedthatWorldHeritagepropertiesserveaslaboratorieswheremonitoring,mitigationandadaptationprocessescanbeapplied,testedandimproved,since actions taken at these iconic propertiesattractworld-wideattentionandcaninfluencetheadoptionofgoodmanagementpracticeselsewhere.

In2007theWorldHeritageCentrepublishedanumberofcasestudiesonclimatechange[7].TheWTQWHAwasidentifiedasoneofthesitesatparticularriskfromevenasmallincreaseintemperature.ThiswasprimarilyduetotheverylargepredicteddeclinesinrangesizeforalmosteveryendemicvertebratefaunalspeciesfoundintheArea.

1.2 National perspectiveQueensland’sWetTropics,alongwiththeGreatBarrierReef,theAustralianAlps,andSouthwestWesternAustralia,haveconsistentlybeenidentifiedinseveralnationalandstatereportsasbeingatparticularriskofbiodiversitylossfromclimatechange[8,9,10].ResearchcommissionedbytherecentGarnautClimateChangeReview[51]notedthattheWetTropicswasamonganumberofWorldHeritagepropertiesinAustraliaunderthreat.TheAustralianGovernment’srecentCarbonPollutionReductionSchemeGreenPaper[52]alsoacknowledgedtheseriousimpactthatclimatechangeislikelytohaveontheWTQWHA.ConcernabouttheimpactsofclimatechangeintheWetTropicsonthenation’sbiodiversityishighlightedinmanysectionsoftherecentOfficeofClimateChangereport,ClimateChangeinQueensland:whatthescienceistellingus[50].

Selaginella species

1.3 Regional perspectiveProtectionoftheregion’snaturalvaluesdependsnotonlyoneffectivelyadaptingtotheimpactsofclimatechange,butalsoonthetypeofregionaldevelopmentpaththatispursued.TheWetTropicsregionhasexperiencedasteadyincreaseinpopulationgrowthoverrecentdecades,averaginghigherthanthenationalgrowthrate[11].Impactsonthenaturalenvironmentarelikelytocontinueincreasingalongwithpopulationgrowth.Itwill,therefore,benecessaryforclimatechangeadaptationresponsestobeviewedinthewidercontextofregionalsustainabledevelopmenteffortssuchasespousedintheFarNorthQueenslandDraftRegionalPlan2025[11].AnyproposedregionalresponsesaimedatreducingthevulnerabilityofthevaluesandintegrityoftheAreamustbedesignedandimplementedinthislargerregionallandscapecontext.TheAreashouldbeconsideredasthecorefocalareawithinafunctioningregionalnetworkofnaturalandsemi-naturalareas.TheprotectionandmanagementoftheAreamustbeapproachedfromawhole-of-regionlandscapeperspective.

Urban development, Mission Beach

2. Wet Tropics regional climate projections

Cyclone Larry

SummaryTheWetTropicscanexpectawarmer,drierfuture.1.

Althoughwetseasonrainfallislikelytoincreaseformostyears,this2.willbecounteredbyanincreaseinthefrequencyofElNiñodroughtyears,resultinginreducedwetseasonrainfallduringtheseElNiñoperiods.

Moreintenserainfalleventsincludinghigherintensitycyclonesare3.likely.

Increasedtemperatureswillresultincorrespondingincreasesin4.evaporationandtranspiration.

Sealevelsarerisingandanincreaseintheareaoflowlandsaffected5.bystormsurgeandsaltwaterintrusionandinundationisexpected.

CSIROhasbeendevelopingtoolsandmethodstopredictclimatechangetrendsatascalerelevantfortheWetTropicsandtheGreatBarrierReefregions.ThisisbeingundertakenthroughaprogramofresearchlinkedtotheMarineandTropicalSciencesResearchFacility(MTSRF)[12]administeredinNorthQueenslandbytheReefandRainforestResearchCentre(RRRC)[13].CSIROhasidentifiedanumberofpossibleoutcomesbasedontheresultsof15differentglobalclimatemodels[14].Predictingthemagnitude,rateandspatialpatternofclimatechangeisverycomplexandscenariosforareasassmallastheWetTropicsregioncontainadegreeofuncertainty.Thesemodels,therefore,shouldnotberegardedasforecastsbut,rather,asindicationsofthelikelydirectionsandmagnitudeofchangebasedonthebestcurrentinformation.Thewisestapproachistousetheseprojectionstoassesstheadditionalriskthatchangesonthisscalecouldpose.

SomeoftheprojectionsfortheWetTropicsbasedontheresultsofthesemodelsarelistedbelow[14].

Temperature (compared to 1990 temperatures)2030

Anincreaseof0.5ºCforlowemissionscenario•

Anincreaseof1.4ºCforhighemissionscenario•

Anincreaseof1.0ºCforlowemissionscenario•

Anincreaseof4.2ºCforhighemissionscenario•

Anincreaseinthefrequencyofextremetemperatureperiods(daysabove•35ºC)fromthecurrentannualaverageofthreedaystoupto41daysby2070.

RainfallRegionalrainfallshowsadecreasingtrendoverthelastcenturyandthis•trendisstrongerafter1950

Overalldrierandmoreseasonalconditionsfortheregionarelikely,•characterisedbyalongeranddrierdryseason

Rainfallvariabilityisexpectedtobehigherfromyeartoyear,especiallyfor•the wet seasons

Rainfallisexpectedtoincreaseslightlyinthewetseason,dependingonthe•stateandfrequencyoftheElNiñoSouthernOscillation(ENSO)

Rainfallisexpectedtodecreasemarkedlyinthelatedryseason•

TherewillbeanincreaseinthefrequencyofElNiñoeventsresultingin•lowerrainfallandlongerdryseasons[15].

2030Changesinrainfallof-6%to+5%annually•

-5%to+4%wetseason(January–March)•

-16%to+2%dryseason(August–October)•

Changesinrainfallof-19%to+14%annually•

-16%to+13%wetseason(January–March)•

-50%to+7%dryseason(August–October).•

Climatic eventsModelsindicateanincreaseinthefrequencyandseverityofextreme•weatherconditionssuchasheatwaves,floods,droughtsanddestructivestorms[15]

Tropicalcyclonesareprojectedtoincreaseinmaximumintensity(+5%to•+10%inmaximumwindspeedand+20%to+30%increaseinmaximumprecipitationby2030),butshowlittlechangeintheirregionofformationornumber(whichishighlydependantuponchangestoENSO)[14]

Ariseinthealtitudeofthecloudbaseispredicted,resultinginaretarding•ofthecloudstrippingabilityoftheregion’suplandrainforests.Theseuplandrainforestscurrentlyderiveupto30%oftheirtotalannualprecipitationfrominterceptingthecloudlayer[16].Ariseinthecloudbasewould

Josephine Falls

therebyreducethetotaleffectivetransferofwaterfromtheatmospheretotheregion’sterrestrialsystemswithseriousimpactsonhydrology,ecosystemprocessesandbiodiversity[17].

Coastal areasAriseinsealevelsof3cmto17cmby2030ispredicted,increasingto18cm•to59cmby2100dependinguponthenatureoflocalcoastalrelief[15]

Anincreaseintheintensityofoceanicstormsurgescausedbybotharising•sealevelandmoreseverecyclonesresultingina20%to30%increaseinstormsurgeheight[18].

Cape Tribulation

Cloud forest

3. Impacts of climate change on the WTQWHA

Copperlode Dam

SummaryClimatechangewillhavesevereadverseimpactsonwildlifeandtheir1.habitatsaswellasonecosystemsandthegoodsandservicestheyprovidesociety.

Ingeneral,allnativespecieswillbemorevulnerable,eventhoseable2.totolerateclimaticchangesper se,astheywillallhavetodealwithavarietyofnewcompetitors,predators,diseasesandintroducedspeciesforwhichtheymayhavenonaturaldefence.

Itispredictedthatexistingecosystemswillundergomajorchanges.3.Somearelikelytodisappearentirely;sometotallynewornovelecosystemsmayappear;andotherswillexperiencedramaticchangesinspeciescompositionandgeographicextent.

Whilerainfalltotalsmaynotvarybymuchunderclimatechange,4.therecouldbesignificantchangestothevariabilityandseasonalityofrainfall.

Climatechangewilladverselyaffectarangeofenvironmentalgoods5.andservicesprovidedbytheWTQWHA.Forinstance,ariseincloudlevelswouldcauseasignificantdeclineincatchmentwateryieldsourcedfromcloudstripping,animportantsourceduringthedryseason.

ResearchshowsthatthebiodiversityoftheAreaishighlysensitivetoclimatechange[19,20,21].Thelocationandextentofrainforestsinparticulararelargelydeterminedbyrainfallanditsseasonality,whilethetypeofrainforestandmanyoftheorganismsfoundwithinarainforestdependuponnarrowtemperatureranges.Climatechangeimpactsuponbiodiversityatallitslevelsoforganisation,rangingfrombiological,ecosystemandecologicalimpactsthroughtopopulationlevelimpacts.

Theseimpactsresulteitherdirectlyfromclimatechange per se orindirectlythroughinteractionswithotherspeciesthatareaffectedbyclimatechange,leadingtochangesincompetition,food,habitatandpredationpatternsandprocesses.Forsomespeciestheseindirectimpactsmaybestrongerthandirectimpacts.Thiscascadeofclimatechangeimpactsalsointeractswithotherhumanpressuresonbiodiversitysuchashabitatdegradationandloss,waterextractionandregulationofflowregimes,pollutionandintroductionandspreadofpestspecies.Notonlydoclimatechangeimpactsaddtotheseotherpressures,theyalsointeract,alteringthewayspeciesandecosystemswouldotherwiserespondandadapt.

Biologicalimpactsincludedirectchangestoorganismssuchasphysiologicalandbehaviouralchanges,including:

differentialresponsesbydifferentspeciesinbothmagnitudeandtypeto•changingconditions

changesintimingofspecies’life-cyclessuchasfloweringandfruiting•(phenology).

Changeswillalsooccurtothecomposition,structure,functionandservicesofecosystemsincluding:

changesinnutrientcyclingandnaturalresourcesupplysuchwatercycles•

Bumpy satinash flowers

changesinpredator-prey,parasite-host,plant-pollinatorandplant-disperser•relationships

changesinecosystemservicessuchaswatersupply,pestcontroland•pollination.

Ecologicalimpactsincludethosethatresultfromchangedinteractionsbetweenorganismsandtheirenvironment,therebyaffectingcommunitycompositionandconfiguration.Theyinclude:

changesinbreeding,establishment,growth,competitionandmortality•

changesinthelocationofspecies’habitatsresultinginrangeshiftsand/or•lossesduetorangeexpansions,contractionsandeliminations

increasedopportunityforrangeexpansionofinvasivepestspeciesincluding•weeds,feralanimals,pathogensandparasites

increasedopportunityforrangeexpansionofnativespecieswithextensive,•non-patchyranges,long-rangedispersalmechanisms,largepopulationsandhighgeneticdiversity

changesinthestructureandcompositionofecologicalcommunities•

formationofnovelcommunitiesbasedonnewspeciesassemblages.•

Populationimpactsrefertotheultimateimpactonspeciesintermsofchangesintheirabundanceanddistribution.Theyinclude:

changesinpresence/absenceandrelative/absoluteabundances•

differentialindividualspecies’responsestowarmeranddrier/moister•conditions

increasesintheriskofextinctionforspeciesthatarealreadyvulnerable•duetolimitedclimaticranges,limiteddispersalability,specialisedhabitatrequirements,smallpopulationsand/orlowgeneticdiversity.

Interactionswithothernaturalandartificialfactorsinclude:

changesintheintensity,frequencyandseasonalityofextremeeventssuch•ascyclones,floods,droughtsandfires

changesinhumanlanduse•pressures(synergieswithchangestolanduseandotherpopulationpressuresontheenvironment).

Pandanus on fire

3.1 Ecological and biological implications of projected climate change

Individualspeciescanexhibittwobasicresponses(inmanycombinations)toclimatechange.Theycanadapttonewconditionswithintheirexistingrangeortheycanmigratetolocationswheresuitableclimaticconditionspersist.Thecapacityofindividualspeciestoadopteitherofthesestrategieswillvary.

Species responses likely to be observedshiftsinspecies’ranges-bothlatitudinalandaltitudinal[20,21]•

changesinspecies’abundances(includinglocalextinctions)[22]•

changesinthelengthofaplantspecies’growingseason•

earlierfloweringinplants,earlieremergenceininsectsandearlieregg•layinginbirds[23,24]

changestothetimingandsequencingofflowering,fruitingandleafflush•ofplantscausingmanyflow-onimpactstospeciesdependentupontheseplants.

Ecological responses likely to be observedAreductioninthenutritionalvalueandanincreaseinthetoughnessofmost•foliageduetoincreasedCO2levels.Thiswillhavesignificantdetrimentaleffectsontheabundanceoffolivores(leaf-eaters)suchasendemicringtailpossumsandmanyinsects[25].

Changesintheclimate-controlleddistributionpatternsofarborealfolivores•will‘push’speciesoffnutrient-rich,basalticsoilsatmidaltitudesandontoincreasinglypoorergraniticsoilsatcooler,higherelevations[25].

Lemuroid ringtail possum

Raisedcloudbaseswillaffectspeciesrequiringhighandconsistentmoisture•levels[19],directlyaffectingsuspendedmossesandepiphytes,microhylidfrogs,litterskinks,soilinvertebratesandsoilmicrobes.

Plant and animal invasionsThereisariskoffocusingtoomuchonwhatwillbelostandnotenoughonwhatwillbegainedbecauseofclimatechange.Althoughmanyspeciesarelikelytobenegativelyaffectedbyclimatechange,thegreatestcommunityandecosystemimpactsmaycomefromthosenativeorexoticspeciesthatarefavouredbychangedconditionsandinteractwithotherspecies(forinstance,competitors,predatorsandinvasiveweeds)[26].Climatechangeispredictedtosignificantlyincreasethevulnerabilityofecosystemstoinvasionbyferalanimals,weedsandpathogens[27,28]andsomenativecolonistspecies.

Changes in fire regimes [28, 32] Firecontrolsmuchoftheboundarybetweenrainforestandsclerophyllforests[33].DuringtheElNiñoeventof2002and2003,firesencroachedintorainforestareas.IncreasesinthefrequencyofdroughtsassociatedwithElNiñoeventswill

Feral pigs

Miconia calvescens

increasethefrequencyandseverityofunusualfireyearsandmayleadtolargechangesinthedistributionofrainforestandsclerophyllcommunities.TheWetTropicsregioncanexpectmorefrequentandmoreintensefiresdueto:

hottertemperatures•moredroughts•lessrainfallinwinter/spring•longerperiodsoflowhumidity•CO• 2inducedincreasesinbiomasssmallerwindowsofopportunityfor•prescribedburns.

3.2 Effects of warming on higher altitude habitats in the Wet Tropics

ManyWetTropicsendemicspeciesliveonlyinthecooler,higheraltitudepartsoftheregion[30].Figure 1modelshowclimatechangemayaffectthespatialextentandpatternofcoolhabitatswheretheaveragetemperatureislessthan22ºC.Thisapproximatesthetemperaturethresholdformostarborealleaf-eatingmammalssuchaspossumsintheWetTropics[31].

Figure 1.AreasintheWetTropicswithmeanannualtemperatureslessthan22.0ºC(black)intoday’sclimate(left)andafter2.0ºCwarming[31].

Hot fire

3.3 Effects of warming on Wet Tropics higher altitude vertebrate fauna

BioclimaticmodelsdevelopedbyresearchersfromJamesCookUniversityandCSIROsuggestthatclimatechangeislikelytohavecatastrophiceffectsonmanyoftheregion’sendemicvertebratespecies.

Anincreaseinregionalaveragetemperatureof1.0ºCcouldpotentiallyproduceadecreaseof60%inthedistributionalrangeoftheregion’sendemicvertebratespecies[21]basedonthesespecies’currentdistributionalrangelimits.Amid-rangeclimatechangepredictionof3.5ºCcouldfurtherreducethedistributionofendemicvertebratestoapproximately5%oftheircurrentrange.Projectedwarmingofthismagnitudealsosimulatedalossofapproximately65%oftheendemicvertebratescurrentlyfoundintheregion.Thiswouldimplyastronglikelihoodofapproximately50speciesbecominggloballyextinctfromtheWTQWHAwithonlyamoderateaveragetemperatureincrease.Mostuplandendemicvertebratespecieswilldisappearundertheworst-casescenarioswithtemperatureincreasesof5.0ºCormore[21].Witheachmodelledincreaseintemperature,itisalsoevidentthatpatchesofclimaticallysuitablehabitatbecomesmaller,fragmentedandmoreisolated.AnyofthedescribedscenarioswouldbecatastrophicwithrespecttotheconservationofthevaluesforwhichtheAreawaslisted.

Table 1liststhoseWetTropicsendemicvertebratespeciespredictedtolosegreaterthan50%oftheircurrentareaofcoreclimaticenvironmentwithonlya1.0ºCincreaseintemperature.Figure 2illustratesthesequentialdeclineindistributionofspeciesrichnessofWetTropicsendemicterrestrialvertebratesastheclimategetsprogressivelywarmer.

Northern barred frog

Daintree ringtail possum

Table 1.WetTropicsendemicvertebratefaunapredictedtobemostatriskfromclimatechange[19,21].

Thornton Peak nursery-frog Cophixalus concinnusMagnificent broodfrog Pseudophryne covacevichaePipping nursery-frog Cophixalus hosmeriNorthern barred frog Mixophyes carbinensisTangerine nursery-frog Cophixalus neglectusBloomfield nursery-frog Cophixalus exiguusMountain top nursery-frog Cophixalus rheophilusNorthern tinker-frog Taudactylus rheophilus

Mammals

Atherton antechinus Antechinus godmaniMahogany glider Petaurus gracilisDaintree River ringtail possum Pseudochirulus cinereusLemuroid ringtail possum Hemibelideus lemuroidesHerbert River ringtail possum Pseudochirulus herbertensisSpotted-tailed quoll Dasyurus maculatus

Golden bowerbird Prionodura newtonianaAtherton scrubwren Sericornis keriMountain thornbill Acanthiza katherina

Skinks

Thornton Peak skink Calyptotis thorntonensisBartle Frere skink Techmarscincus jigurruCzechura’s litter skink Saproscincus czechuraiskink (no common name) Saproscincus lewisiskink (no common name) Lampropholis robertsiskink (no common name) Eulamprus frereiskink (no common name) Glaphyromorphus mjobergi

Figure 2.Thedeclineindistributionofspeciesrichnessofregionallyendemicterrestrialvertebrateswithincreasingtemperature(thedarkertheshadeofgreythegreaterthespeciesrichness)[21].

Predictedeffectscouldconceivablyhavebeengreaterifclimatevariablesotherthantemperaturewereconsidered.IncreasedCO2concentrations,forexample,mayreducethenutritionalvalueandincreasethelignincomponentoffoliagewithdetrimentaleffectsontheabundanceofleaf-eatingfauna.Inaddition,changes

Golden bowerbird

Mahogany glider

ingeographicdistributionmaypushspeciesoffnutrient-richbasalticsoils(atmidaltitudes)andontoincreasinglypoorergraniticsoilsathigherelevations[25].Forestsonthesepoorersoilsgenerallysupportlowerpopulationdensitiesofleaf-eatingfauna[25].Ontheotherhand,thesemodelsarebasedsolelyonthedegreetowhichthecurrentmacrohabitatoftheseanimalsislikelytochange(exposure)andignorespossibleintrinsicadaptiveandbehaviouraltraitsofthespecies,orextrinsicmicrohabitatfactorsthatmayhelpincounteringtheextentofthepredictedimpact.Refinementofthesemodelsisacurrentfocusofresearchefforts.

3.4 Environmental goods and servicesClimatechangeisexpectedtonotonlyresultinsevereadverseimpactsonhabitatsandwildlifewithintheWTQWHA,butalsoimpactupontheenvironmentalgoodsandservicestheAreaprovides(Table 2).Theregion’spopulationreceivesgreatvaluefromtheseecologicalgoodsandservices,manyofwhichsupporteconomicactivities.Forexample,thesupplyofasecureandsafewatersupplysupportsthequalityoflifeofresidents,ensuresgoodpublichealth,andfosterstheeconomicgrowthanddevelopmentoftheregion.

Table 2.ExamplesofecosystemgoodsandservicesprovidedbytheWTQWHA[29]

Maintenance of the environment

Utilitarian uses

Personal enjoyment Ethics

carbon cycles• water cycles• water quality• regional • climates and microclimate flood mitigation• groundwater • rechargepollination• pest control• habitat• refugia• water • regulationwaste • breakdown

water supply• tourism• recreation• genetic • resourcesscientific • discoveryeducation• horticulture • food• pharmaceutical • products

enjoyment• aesthetic • pleasureinspiration• serenity• leisure • activities (photography, bushwalking, bird watching, camping)lifestyle• sense of place• national • identity

ethical/moral • valuesintrinsic • natural values and importancecultural values• historic values• existence • values

Rainfall and water supplyAreliablewatersupplyisoneofthemostvaluedenvironmentalservicessuppliedbytheArea.WhileitispredictedtheWetTropicsregionwillfaremuchbetterthanmanyotherregionsinAustraliawithrespecttoavailabilityofwaterwiththeonsetofclimatechange,nevertheless,impactsinthisregionareexpectedtooccur.Thesearesummarisedbelow:

AnincreaseinthefrequencyofElNiñoyearswillreducesummerwet•seasonstreamflows.

Reducedrainfallinthewinterdryseasonasaresultofincreasedevapo-•transpirationanddecreasedcloudstrippingwillreducedryseasonstreamflows.

Therewillbegreaterseasonalityinstreamflows(morevariableinthewet•season,lowerinthedryseason).

Therewillbegreateryeartoyearvariabilityinflows(duetogreater•frequencyofextremeevents).

The combination of low •elevation,decreasesinfreshwaterflowsandrisingsealevelsincreasestheriskofsaltwaterincursionsthatmayaffectthequalityoffreshwatersourcescurrentlytappedforurbanandagriculturalpurposes[18].

Rainforest creek

Mountain stream Pho

Cloud stripping and water supplyHighaltituderainforestswhichareimmersedincloudforalargeproportionofthetimestripconsiderableamountsofmoisturefrompassingclouds.ResearchersfromCSIROhavefoundthat,insomemonthsoftheyear,upto40%morewaterisharvestedoutofthecloudsthanismeasuredasrainfallinaraingauge.Theyfoundthattheregion’shighaltituderainforestsbehavelikegiantsponges,capturinglargevolumesofwaterdirectlyfromclouds,whichtheythenreleaseslowlythroughouttheyear.Thisprocessisnowbelievedtobeofgreatimportanceinmaintainingstreamflowsthroughoutthedryseason.

Theprocessisconsideredsignificanttotheoverallwaterbudgetoftheregion,especiallyintermsofwaterrechargeduringthedryseason.Fortheuplandrainforest,cloud-strippingcontributesupto70%ofthetotalwaterinputintotheforestsystemduringthedriermonths.Duringthewetseason,highrainfallmaskstheimportanceofcloudstrippingwhichnonethelessstillcontributes10-20%ofthetotalwaterinputintotheregion’suppercatchments[16].

Undercurrentclimateconditions,cloudstrippingoccursinrainforestsmorethan600masl(abovesealevel).Witheverydegreeofwarmingthebaseofthecloudcondensationlayerispredictedtorisebyanaverageof100m.By2050wemayexpecttemperaturestobebetween1.0ºCto3.0ºCwarmerthanatpresentwhichequatestoariseintheeffectivecloudstrippingcondensationlayerfrom600maslto900masl.With3.0ºCofwarming,theeffectivecloudstrippingareaintheWetTropicswilldecreasebyasmuchas40%[16].Whatthiswillmeanforabsolutewateryieldsremainsunknown,excepttoconcludethatwateryieldswillbesignificantlylower,especiallyinthedryseason.Theimplicationsofclimatechangeonthisprocesswillinclude:

reductionintheareasuitableforthecloudstrippingprocess•

lesscloudstrippinginthedryseasonandgenerallyreducedcloudcover•

changestovegetationcharacteristicswhichmayreducethewaterstripping•capacityofuplandrainforest.

Behana Creek water supply

4. Management responses

Managementinvolvesallocatingresourcesamongstcompetinginterests.Therelativeimportanceofdifferentissuesmaychangeasaresultofclimatechange.Therefore,resourceallocationsneedtobeadaptive,activelyseekinginformationwheretherearedataandunderstandinggaps,andtakingaccountofnewinformationasitbecomesavailable.

Changestoecosystemswillinevitablyaffecthumancommunitiesandindustriesthatdependonthem.RegionalcommunitiesaredependentontheWTQWHAasamajorsourceofincomeandanimportantdeterminantoflifestyle.Themagnitudeoftheimpactsofclimatechangeonthenaturalvaluesoftheregionwilldepend,inlargepart,onthewillingnessandcapacityofthelocalcommunitytomodifythosepracticesthatreducetheecologicalresilienceofnaturalandsemi-naturalhabitats.Effectivemanagement,therefore,requirestheemploymentofstrategiesthataresociallyandeconomicallysustainable[34,35,36].

Althoughthereremainuncertaintiesaboutthetiming,magnitudeandgeographicdistributionofclimatechangeimpacts,itisevidenttheresultwillbeawarming,drying,morevariableclimatewithmorefrequent,extremeweatherevents.TheseclimatechangesarelikelytointeractwithabroadrangeofotherpressuresontheArea.Tworecentclimateeventscanhelptoillustratethenatureofstressesanddisruptionstonatural,socialandeconomicsystemsbyaclimatedrivenbywarmertemperatures:theseverestormsofCycloneLarryin2006;andtheseveredroughtconditionswhichaffectedtheregionin2002and2003andtheassociatedpenetrationofbushfiresintorainforestareas.

Whileclimatechangehassignificantly‘uppedtheante’withrespecttoregionallanduseplanningandmanagementissues,theoverlapandcloserelationshipbetweentheapplicationofbestpracticelandmanagementmeasuresandconstructiveclimatechangeadaptationmeasuresissignificant.Thisprovidesconsiderablereassuranceandopportunitiesfortheregiontotakeuseful,‘no

SummaryEffectiveactioncanbetakennowtobuildresilienceintheWetTropicslandscapetothethreatofclimatechange.Theactionsneededtocombatclimatechangeinclude:

on-groundworkstoimproveforesthealth1.

increasingcommunityawarenessandmobilisingbehaviouralchange2.

improvingandcommunicatingourknowledgeoftheeffectsof3.climatechange

improvingregionalplanningandcoordination.4.

regrets’climatechangeresponsemeasures–thetypeofmeasuresthatwillhavecomplementarybenefitsformaintainingthehealthandconditionoftheAreatogetherwithlong-termflow-onbenefitstotheregionaleconomyandqualityoflife.Muchofwhatneedstobedoneisalreadybeingdone–itjustneedsacommitmenttodothesethingsbetter,moreoften,overalargerareaandinamorecoordinatedandprioritisedway.Itwillalsorequireacommitmentfromtheregionalcommunitytoembracethesechangesandadaptationinitiatives.Livinginaninternationallyrecognisedbiologicalhotspotentailsresponsibilitiestoensureitisconservedforallpeopleandforfuturegenerations.

Therearetwobroadcategoriesofclimatechangeresponses:mitigation(avoidingorreducinggreenhousegasemissionsandincreasingsequestrationofgreenhousegases);andadaptation(copingwithclimatechangeimpacts).Thefollowingpracticalstepsareaimedatreducingtheimpactsofclimatechangeontheregion’sbiodiversity,primarilythroughadaptiveresponses.Thiswillbeachievedthroughinsituconservationofspeciesandecologicalcommunitiesbyfacilitatingtheirnaturaladaptationbymeansofimprovingtheoverallecologicalresilienceoftheregion.

4.1 ResilienceEcologicalresiliencecanbedefinedasthecapacityofanecosystemtotolerateorrecoverfromdisturbancewithoutcollapsing.Aresilientecosystemcanwithstandshocksandrebuilditselfwhennecessary.Forecosystemstopersistinthelong-term,successfulrecoveryafterdisturbanceisfundamental.Naturalsystemsarecharacterisedbyenvironmentalthresholdsthat,ifcrossed,mayleadtolarge-scaleandrelativelyabruptshiftsinstate,includingchangesinecosystemprocessesandstructure[37,38].Onceathresholdiscrossedandashiftinstateorakeyprocessoccurs,itmaybedifficult,orevenimpossible,toreversetheshift.

Amajorbenefitofmanagingnaturalsystemsforoverallresilienceisthatitprovidesthebestgeneralinsuranceagainstcurrentandemergingthreats[38,

Drought at Lake Tinaroo in 2003

39].Itisinevitablethatcurrentlyunrecognisedthreatswillemergewithintheregion,sothebestlong-termmanagementstrategyistoaimforasystemwiththeresiliencetorecoverfromaswidearangeofanticipatedchallengesaspossible.Factorscontributingtoecologicalresilienceinclude:

Biological diversity• –Ecologicalsystemswithhighbiologicaldiversitywillgenerallyhavegreaterinherentresilience,largelybecausetheywillhavemorediverseresponsesandcapacitiesavailabletothem,whichcanprovidethebasisforadaptation[40].Diversityofhabitatsalsoincreasesthelikelihoodofsomehabitatsbeingmoreresilienttoimpactsfromparticularstressesordisturbances[40].

Connectivity• –Connectivityreferstotheextentoftheconnectionsbetweenpopulations.Thecapacityofnaturalsystemstorecoverafteradisturbance,ortoreorganiseinthefaceofneworintensifiedpressures,dependstoalargeextentontheabilityofplantandanimalpopulationsandecologicalprocessestodisperseormoveacrossthelandscape.

Wet sclerophyll forest

Donaghy’s corridor, Atherton Tableland

Refugia• –Refugiaareareaswithinthelandscapewhereecosystemsarebufferedfrompressuresordisturbancesthatwouldotherwiseresultinreducedresilienceelsewhere.Refugiaserveassecuresourceareaswhichareimportantforthereplenishmentofdisturbedpopulationsandserveassteppingstonesformaintainingpopulationconnectivityacrosslargerscales.Importantfeaturesofrefugiaincludeadequateextenttoprovidesufficientsourcepopulationsandinclusionofadiverseandcomprehensivesampleofmanydifferenthabitattypes.

Conservingorcreatinggreaterlandscapeconnectivitybetweenareasrichinbiodiversity,inconjunctionwithrefugia,providesgreateropportunitiesforspeciesandecologicalprocessestorecover,re-establishandrelocateortoadaptandevolve.Thefollowingfoursectionsoutlinearangeofpracticalstepsthattheregioncantaketohelpachieveamoreresilientnaturalenvironment.

4.2 Regional planning, coordination and leadership

4.2.1 Integrating climate change into managementRespondingtoclimatechangeisunlikelytosucceedifitisdoneinisolationfromotherlandmanagementactivitiesandotheragenciesinvolvedinlandmanagement.Theclimatechangechallengeisoccurringatallscales,fromspeciestocatchmenttolandscapescales,andacrossindustries,propertyboundariesandlandtenures.Foraregionalresponsetobemeaningful,allthoseaffectedneedtobebroughttogethertodeliverintegratedapproachestonaturalresourceandlandmanagementproblems.Thismustinvolvegovernmentagencies,industriesandregionalcommunities.

Mountain refuge

Manymanagementresponsestoclimatechange,suchaspestmanagementandcreatingwildlifecorridors,arealreadybeingundertakentoenhanceWetTropicsconservation.Suchconservationactivitieswillbecomemoreurgentandprioritiesmayalterinthelightofclimatechangetoensureadditionalenvironmentalorsocioeconomicbenefits.

What can be done?DevelopaWetTropicsBioregional•ClimateChangeActionPlanaimedatconservingtheoutstandinguniversalvaluesandintegrityoftheAreaandthebiodiversityoftheoverallregion.

Coordinatewithclimatechange•responsesinothersectorssuchasurbanandregionalplanning,wateruse,coastalmanagementandGreatBarrierReefplanningandmanagement.

Developandimplementa•communicationsstrategytoraiseawarenessofclimatechangeimpactsandtheadvantagesofearlyattentiontoadaptation.

4.2.2 Coordination and alignmentClimatechangethreatswillintroducearangeofsocialandethicalissuesthatwillneedtobeaddressed.Acommonapproachbyregionallandmanagementorganisationsandtheresearchcommunitywillhavebenefits.

What can be done?ContinuetodeveloptheNorthQueenslandClimateAllianceasanetworkof•climatechangeinterestgroupsataregionallevel.

SupportthebidbyJamesCookUniversity’sCentreforTropical•BiodiversityandClimateChangetohosttheNationalClimateChangeAdaptationResearchFacility-TerrestrialBiodiversityHubinTownsville.Thisfacilitywouldestablishanational/internationalnetworkofclimatechangeinterestgroups.

Wet Tropics coastline

WTMA, Main Roads and Terrain NRM brochure

PromotetheWetTropicsConservationStrategy[49]asthesourceof•conservationprioritiesforregionallandandenvironmentdecision-makers.

4.2.3 Reducing emissionsAnauditofgreenhousegasemissionscommissionedbytheAuthorityin2007[48]showedthatpercapitaemissionsintheWetTropics(23.6tonnesCO2orequivalent)in2005weresignificantlylowerthanaverageemissionsforQueenslandandAustralia.However,theyremained70%greaterthanaverageemissionsforindustrialisedcountriessubjecttoemissiontargetsundertheKyotoProtocol.LowstationaryenergyemissionsintheWetTropicsweredueprimarilytohydro,windandbagassepowerandtheabsenceofenergyintensiveindustries.Higherthanaveragetransportemissionswerepartlyduetouseofaviationfuel.AsinmanyotherareasofAustralia,localresidentsareincreasinglyawareoftheneedtoconserveresourcesanduselessenergy.Thereareecologicalandsocioeconomicbenefitsfromwiseandsparinguseofenergyandournaturalassetssuchaswaterandforests.

What can be done?Usetheregionalgreenhouse•gasauditasabaselineforfuturemonitoringofemissions.

Provideregionalleadershipin•measurestoreducegreenhousegasemissions.

PromotetheCitiesforClimate•Protectionprograminregionalcouncils.

Launch of the Wet Tropics greenhouse gas emissions audit

Wind farm at Ravenshoe

4.2.4 Planning and developmentTheFarNorthQueenslandDraftRegionalPlan2025[11]promotesastronger,moreliveableandsustainablecommunity.Itacknowledgesthatthelikelyimpactsofclimatechangearesignificantfortheregion’senvironment,economyandcommunities.TherehasbeenstrongcommunitysupportforbiodiversityconservationintheregionandtheneedforwildlifecorridorsthatwillhelptobuildresilienceintheWetTropicslandscape.

What can be done?SupportimplementationofpoliciesintheFNQDraftRegionalPlan2025•[11]thatwillhelptomitigategreenhouseemissionsandsupportmeasurestobuildenvironmentalandcommunityresilience.

Ensurethatclimatechangeimpactsareconsideredinallmajorplanningand•developmentdecisions.

4.2.5 Wet Tropics tourismTheregion’seconomyreliesheavilyonasustainablenaturebasedtourismindustry.TheprincipalnaturalresourcesonwhichthisindustrydependsaretheWTQWHAandtheGreatBarrierReefWorldHeritageArea.TheimpactofclimatechangeonthesetwoWorldHeritageAreasastouristattractionshasthepotentialtosignificantlyaffectthetourismindustry,withconsequentialsocialandeconomicimpacts.

What can be done?Supportregionalcleanandgreeninitiativesbythetourismindustry.•

Supportmovesbythetourismindustrytobuildrainforestresilienceand•promotegreentourismthroughtheuseofregionalbiodiversityoffsets.

Clearing for development, Mission Beach

Developregional•adaptationstrategiesfornaturebasedtourism.

Continuetoassess•theimpactsofclimatechangeontourismandtourismvalues(physical,socialandeconomic)andontherelativeimpactofclimatechangeonthedifferentformsoftourism.

4.2.6 Maximising carbon market opportunitiesWithcarbontradingproposednationallyforAustralia,significantopportunitiesexistforbiodiversityconservationtobejointlyplannedforaspartofproposalsforthebiosequestrationofcarbon.Opportunitiesforcombininggreenhouseandbiodiversityobjectivesrangefromtheselectionofnativespeciesmixesforforestplantationestablishmenttothecreationofstrategiccorridors,therestorationoflandscapeconnectivityandthebufferingofintactnaturalareas.Thesemultipleenvironmentalbenefitscouldhaveadditionalcorporateappealintermsofdisplayingacompany’scommitmenttobroaderenvironmentalprotection.

What can be done?Explorethespectrumofcarbontradingandothereconomicincentives•whichareavailabletohelpachieveorfundeffectiveclimateadaptationresponsestobuildresiliencefortheWTQWHA.

Daintree River cruise

Daintree Cassowary Care Group

4.3 Improving and communicating our knowledge of the effects of climate change

4.3.1 Building regional capability and reducing uncertaintyWhiletheWetTropicsregionisrecognisedasbeingaleaderinclimatechangeresearchforthetwoWorldHeritageAreas,thereremainsubstantialgapsinourknowledgeofclimatechange,itsimpactsandappropriateresponsestotheseimpacts.Thereisalsoaneedtoimprovethesynthesisanddisseminationofinformationsothatitismorerelevantandunderstandabletodecision-makersandthegeneralcommunity.Keycomponentsofadaptivecapacityincludetheabilitytogenerate,accessandinterpretinformationaboutclimatechangeanditslikelyimpacts;suitablemethodsforidentifyingandassessingpotentialadaptationstrategies;adequatefinancialandotherresources;andawillingnesstoadapt.

Theregion’sscientistshavegeneratedanimpressivebaseofinformationabouthowtheclimateischangingandthebroadphysicalimpactsthesechangesmayhave.However,theAuthority,othergovernmentagenciesandthecommunityrequireimprovedinformationabouttheprojectionsofclimatechange,particularlyofextremeeventsandtheirimpactupontheArea’svaluesandintegrity.

What can be done?Supportresearchandeducational•institutionswhichplacerainforestandreefWorldHeritagemanagementissuesandconcernshighontheirresearchandteachingagendas.

SupporttheCSIROandJamesCook•UniversityprojectsfundedthroughMTSRFwhicharestartingtoprovideclimatechangeprojectionsandregionalscenariosatscalesrelevanttodecision-makers.

Increaseandpromotepostgraduate•researchonthethermaltolerancesofthreatenedspeciesandonpossiblemitigationmeasures.

Developimprovedregionalclimate•changeprojections,extremeclimateeventprojectionsandimprovedregionalclimatemodellinganddownscalingtechniques.

Researcher at work

4.3.2 Understanding social resilienceSocialandeconomictrendsthataffecttheregion’svulnerabilitytoclimatechangeandthesocialandeconomicimpactsofclimatechangeontheregionareverypoorlyunderstood.Itisimportantforfacilitatingsocialandeconomicresiliencethattheregionsupportsmoresocialresearch.

What can be done?Collectandanalysesocialandeconomicdataandtrendstoassesshowthese•factorsarelikelytoinfluencevulnerabilitytoclimatechange.

Identifysocialandeconomiccostsofclimatechangeandmanagement•responseoptions,includingthecostofnottakingadaptationaction.

4.3.3 Establishment of climate change research centresUniversitiesandresearchinstitutionshaveaspecialroletoplayineducatingandbuildingregionalcapacitythroughestablishingcentresforclimateresearch,fosteringinternationalnetworksofcollaboratingscientistsandinstitutions,andprovidingtrainingandcareerdevelopmentopportunitiesforyoungscientists.

Theresearchcapabilityoftheregionhasincreasedsignificantlyinthelastdecade,especiallywithrespecttoresearchontheimpactsofclimatechangeonbiodiversityandecosystemprocesses.However,thereisstillaneedforfurtherresearchonclimatechangeimpactsintheWetTropicsandhowtointegratethisresearchintothemanagementofthreateningprocessessuchasfragmentation,pestsandfire.Thisincludestheneedtoidentifycriticalthresholdsfornaturalecosystemsandapproachestoincreasingtheirresiliencetotheimpactsofclimatechange.

ArecentbidbyJamesCookUniversitytoestablishanational‘CentreforClimateChangeAdaptation’wouldprovideabroaderexaminationofthesocial,economic,

Sunbird, an energy efficient house, Cairns

agriculturalandenvironmentalimpactsofclimatechangeandhowbesttomanagethem.Thiswouldcoordinateandintegrateresearchanddecision-makingaboutclimatechangeimpactsonvariouscommunitysectors.Thecentremayalsobecomeafundingbodytobrokerresearchpartnershipsanddevelopnewresearch.

What can be done?Supportanexpansionofthe•establishedregionalresearchbaseintoaninternationalhubforresearchintoclimatechangeanditsimpactsonterrestrial,aquaticandestuarineecosystemsandbiodiversity.

Supportthebidtoestablish•aCentreforClimateChangeAdaptationintheWetTropics.

Incorporatetheimplicationsofclimatechangeintoexistingregional•managementplans,strategies,guidelinesandpolicies.

4.3.4 Monitoring Monitoringclimate,climateimpactsandmanagementresponsesiscriticalgivenclimatechangeentailssomanyuncertainties.Monitoringisnecessarytodetectpopulationchangesandspeciesdeclinesorincreases.Monitoringshouldfocusonspeciesatspecialrisk,butbeflexibleenoughtodetectotherchanges.

Theclimatechange/biodiversitymonitoringplotswhichhavebeenestablishedintheWetTropicsbyJamesCookUniversityandCSIROresearchers,withfundingfromMTSRF,SmartStateandothersources,hasprovidedAustraliawithanopportunitytojoinaworldwidenetworkofrainforestmonitoringplots.TheWetTropicsplotnetworkhasthepotentialtoprovidethemostcomprehensivestudyofbiologicalcommunitieseverundertakeninAustralia.Theynotonlyprovidethebaselineforlong-termmonitoringforaverylargeproportionofallthespeciesandbioclimatesintheWetTropics,butalsoalargeproportionofQueensland’sandAustralia’stotalbiodiversity.

TheWetTropicshasthepotentialtobecomeacentralhubofaglobalnetworkofbiodiversity/climatechangemonitoringsites.Fromatopographicalandclimaticbasis,Queensland’sWetTropicshasaffinitieswithuplandtropicalforestlocalitiesintheupperreachesoftheAmazonandCongobasinsandintheuplandsoftheeastcoastofMadagascar,BrazilandNewGuinea[2,41].Together,theseforests

Setting up data loggers in boulder fields

containaverylargeproportionoftheworld’stotalbiodiversity.However,whatsetstheWetTropicsapartisthatitcontainstropicalrainforestsattheirlatitudinalandclimaticlimits.ThispotentiallymakestheAreaanearlywarningsiteforalertingothervulnerabletropicalforesthotspotstotheemergingeffectsofclimatechange.

What can be done?Supporttheestablishedregionalclimatechange/biodiversitymonitoring•programsbeingundertakenbyJamesCookUniversityandCSIRO.

Expandthescopeofthismonitoringtofurtherdevelopmethodstoassess•andmonitorspecies,communitiesandecosystemsoverthelong-term;monitorecosystemresponsetohelpdevelopandverifypredictivemodels;measureresponsestomanagementactions;andassesswhetherthestrategiesareeffectiveinprotectingbiodiversityandecosystemfunction.

Advocatefortheincreaseduseanddevelopmentofremotesensingmethods•formonitoringsuchastheuseofsatellitetechnology,non-destructivetechniquesandtheuseofsimulationtoolstopredicttheimpactofclimatechange.

4.4 On-ground works to improve forest healthThefollowingoutlinesarangeofactionsthatcanbeimplementedtoincreasetheecologicalresilienceoftheregion’snaturalsystems.Manyarerelevantforimplementationatbothlargeandsmallscales,buttheirefficacywillbeincreasediftheyarepartofacoordinatedeffortbyalllandandnaturalresourcemanagers.

Downloading data in the field

4.4.1 Managing environmental stress created by climate change

Existing threatsClimatechangewillinteractwithmanyexistingthreatstotheoutstandinguniversalvaluesandintegrityoftheWTQWHAandothernaturalandsemi-naturalareasoftheregion,resultinginevengreaternegativeimpactsontheenvironment.Reducingotherexistingthreatsorpressurestobiodiversitywillhelpbuildresilienceintonaturalsystemsandspecies.Naturalsystemsthatarealreadystressedorsufferingfrommultiplepressuresaremorelikelytosuccumbtotheadditionalstressesofimpactsbyclimatechange.

Invasive speciesInvasivepestspeciesaregenerallyexpectedtobeclimatechangewinnersbecausetheytendtobecolonisersoradaptableopportunistsandareamongthefirsttooccupyneworexpandingenvironmentalnichesafterdisturbanceorwithinstressedecosystems.Aparticularchallengeinthisareaisthepotentialfor‘sleeper’weedsandferalanimalstobegintoexpandtheirrangesuddenlyanddramaticallyinresponsetoevenmoderateshiftsinclimateorinresponsetochangesinthefrequencyofextremeeventssuchasfiresorcyclones.

PrioritytargetsforeradicationeffortsshouldbethosespeciesthathaveahighpotentialtoinvadetheAreaandthosethatarecurrentlyrareincultivationandrareinthewild.Invasiveintroducedgrassesareanothergroupofweedsthatjustifyspecialattention.Introducedflammablegrassesarealreadyaseriousenvironmentalthreatevenwithoutconsideringclimatechange.Guineagrassandmolassesgrass,forexample,growtallerthannativegrassesandalsogrowinmuchthickerstandspreventingnativetreerecruitment,bothbyshadingouttheirseedlingsandfuellinghotfiresthatdestroythem.

Pond apple

FireLandmanagerswillneedtoacceptthatanewclimateregimemaybringapermanentchangetofireregimesforvariousnativeecosystemsthroughoutthenon-rainforestedpartsoftheregion.Regionallandmanagerswillneedtoconsiderinvestingmoreinfiremanagementtoreflectanyincreasedfireriskandidentifyandprotectfirerefugiawherenaturalfireregimescanfeasiblyberetained.

What can be done?Reduceother(non-climate)environmentalpressures.•

Eradicatenewlyemerginginvasivepestspeciesandcontrolorcontainmore•widespreadinvasiveplant,animalanddiseaseoutbreaks.

Assessandmodeltheimplicationsandsynergiesbetweenclimatechange,•firemanagementandecosystemalterations.

4.4.2 Managing landscape health in the face of climate change

Landscape connectivityConnectivityreferstothemaintenanceorrestorationofkey,large-scaleecologicalphenomena,flows,andprocessescriticaltothelong-termconservationofbiodiversity[42].Thismayrangefromlarge-scaleecologicalprocessessuchaswatercyclesandflowregimestothetransferofgenesfromlowlandareastouplandareas.Animportantconnectivityprocesswithrespecttoclimatechangeistheroleofdispersivespecies.Dispersivespeciesarethosespeciesthatarecapable

Controlled burn

oftravellinglargedistancesandmaybeimportantinmovingpollenandseedoverlargedistances.Whilethecapacityofdispersivespeciesforlongdistancetravelwillbeadvantageousinthefaceofclimatechange,habitatfragmentationanddegradationmaypresentsignificantbarrierstospeciesthatmayneedtomovetonewhabitatsandrefugia.

Ecological corridorsAwildlifecorridorreferstoaswathoflandorawatercourseintendedtoallowpassagebyidentifiedwildlifespeciesbetweentwoormoreforestedareas.Wildlifecorridorsaregenerallyconsideredatalocalscaleandforindividualspecies.Theirprimarypurposeistolinkotherwiseseparatedpopulationsandformitigatingotherimpactsofhabitatfragmentationonwildlifepopulations[43,44].Designingacorridornetworkinvolvesidentifyingspecificlandsthatwillbestmaintaintheabilityofwildlifetomovebetweenforestedblocks,eveniftheremaininglandbecomesinhospitabletowildlifemovement.Climatechangeaddsgreatlytotherationaleforconservingorcreatingecologicalcorridors.Althoughthemostimportantcorridorsarethosethatrunlongdistancesorwhichcaptureanaltitudinalgradient[45],allcorridorspromotegeneticexchangeandlinkpopulations,whichinturnfostersadaptationtoclimatechange.Strengtheningandextendingnetworksofcorridorsbyplantingtreeswillalsoprovideacarbonsink.Aregionalcorridornetworkwillbenefitandincreasetheresilienceofmanyspeciesofwildlifeandvegetationcommunitiesbymitigatingsomeofthedetrimentalecologicalimpactsarisingfromsurroundinglandusesandbyprovidingconduitsthroughwhich:

wildlifecandispersefrom•areaswhichhavereachedmaximumcarryingcapacityand/orcompetition,andrecoloniseotherfavourablehabitats,potentiallyimprovingtheresilienceofapopulationtostress

wildlifecanfolloworescape•localorlonger-termseasonalchangesinenvironmentalconditions

wildlifecanaccesspreviously•separatedpopulationswithwhichbreedingmaytakeplace,bettermaintainingandpossiblyimprovinggeneticvariability.

Cassowary

RefugiaInevolutionaryterms,refugiaarepartsofthelandscapeinwhichcertaintypesorsuitesoforganismsareabletopersistduringperiodsinwhichmostoftheiroriginalgeographicrangebecomesuninhabitablebecauseofclimaticchange.Theresultingrefugiacontainhighfrequenciesofendemicspeciesbecausethespeciesinthemtendtorespondtothecontractionofrangebyevolvingdifferencesfromtheiroriginal,widespreadstock[46].

Refugia,therefore,areimportantastheyrepresentthoseareaswherefavourablehabitatwillpersistordevelopastheclimatechanges.Asconditionsoutsiderefugiabecomehostilewithchangingclimate,aspecieswillbelostfromthewiderrangeandpersistlargelyintherefugia.Locationsthathaveservedasrefugiaduringpastclimatechangesmayserveasrefugiaforthepresentperiodofclimatechange.However,refugiamayalsodevelopoutsideofthecurrentrangeofaspeciesasclimatezonesshiftandecosystemsshiftwiththem.Inthiscase,itwillbecrucialtoalsoidentifyandprotectthesenewrefugiaandmigrationcorridorstothem.

Habitat replicationReplicate,securehabitatsareavitalformofinsuranceastheyprotectmultiplesourcepopulations,climaterefugiaandmigrationcorridors.Thesmallerandmoreisolatedahabitat,themorelikelyitistolosespeciesovertimeandthemorevulnerableitistostressfuleventssuchascyclones,droughts,firesorfloods.Withsufficienthabitatreplication,aspecieshasagreaterlikelihoodofremainingviablewithagreatercapacitytoadapttoenvironmentalchange.AlthoughtheWTQWHAcapturesagreatdiversityofhabitats,refugiaandmigrationcorridorsduetoitspossessionofsignificantenvironmentalgradients,therearemanylowlandandtablelandhabitatsthatarepoorlyrepresentedwithintheArea.

Bellenden Ker mountaintop vegetation

What can be done?Maintainandenhancelandscape-scaleecologicalconnectivity.•

Identify,conserveandcreatewildlifecorridors.•

Identifyandprotectclimaticallystablerefugia.•

Ensurehabitats,speciesandotherenvironmentalvaluesarereplicatedinthe•protectedareaestatewhereverfeasible.

Increaselandscapeandhabitatheterogeneitywithinprotectedareas,•includingaltitudinal,latitudinal,topographicandvegetationdiversity.

4.4.3 Ecological site management

Tree plantingsOneofthebiggestopportunitiestoimprovelandscapeconditionandconnectivityisthroughprogramsofstrategictreeplantingsandhabitatrestoration.Frombothabiodiversityandnaturalresourcemanagementperspective,riparianrevegetationisahighpriorityasithasmultipleenvironmentalandeconomicbenefitssuchasstabilisingstreambanks,filteringrunoff,shadingstreams(thuskeepingwatertemperatureswithintheirnaturalrange),andcontributingtothefoodwebforin-streambiota.Replantingschemesalsoofferopportunitiesforreintroducinggenestoisolatedpopulations,increasingthepopulationsizeofthreatenedspeciesandprovidingkeystoneresourcestoincreasetheecologicalfunctionalityofwildlifecorridors.

Revegetation

Thermal refuge sitesEcologistsusetheterm‘refuge’tomeanalocationinwhichaspeciesorsuiteofspeciescanpersistforshortperiodswhenlargepartsoftheirpreferredhabitatsbecomeuninhabitablebecauseofunsuitableclimaticorecologicalconditions.

Deepgullies,rockoutcropsandsouth-facingslopesarelandscapefeaturesthataregenerallycoolerthantheirsurroundings,therebyprovidingsitesthatofferthermalrelief.Specialconsiderationandpriorityshouldbegiventotheseandotherlandscapefeaturesthatcreateamildmicroclimate.Habitatscanalsobeenhancedtoincreasecoolmicroclimates.Forexample,riparianvegetationcanberestoredtoshadewatercourses,logsandrocksinstalledaspartofrevegetationprojectsorinsemi-naturalareastoprovidecoolsitestoassistnativespecies.Ingeneral,treeplantingssignificantlycoolandinsulatesites.Thelossofshadyriparianvegetation,siltingupofdeeppoolsandtheloweringofwaterlevelsallleadtohigherstreamtemperaturesthatmaybeintolerableforsomeaquaticwildlife.Improvingstreamhabitatqualitymightincludethemaintenanceofcoolingfeaturessuchastherestorationofripariancoverorrestrictionsonwaterextraction.

What can be done?Revegetateclearedanddegradedareas.•

Identify,conserve,createandenhancecoolclimaterefuges/siteswithinthe•landscape.

Identify,conserveandcreateaquaticrefuges.•

Thornton Peak

4.4.4 Species management

Species at risk AlargeproportionofthespeciesidentifiedinthelistingoftheWTQWHAashavingoutstandinganduniversalvaluehaveoneormoreofarangeofcharacteristics.Theyare:

restrictedtohigh-altitudeenvironments•

havesmalland/orisolatedorboundeddistributions•

havesmallrestrictedranges•

havepoordispersalcapabilities•

arephysiologicallysusceptibletoextremetemperatures•

areconsideredtopossessextremehabitat/nichespecialisation•

showclose,co-evolved,orsynchronousrelationshipswithotherspecies•

displayinflexiblephysiologicalresponsestoclimaticvariables•

areatthelimitsoftheirlatitudinaloraltitudinalrange.•

Insomecasesitislikelythatclimaterefugiaorcorehabitatscannotbemaintained,areunlikelytopersist,ormigrationmaynotbepossible.

Key functional groups Recoveryprocessesarefrequentlyhighlysensitivetodisturbance,highlightingtheimportanceofidentifyingandprotectingthefunctionsthatareessentialforrecovery.Onefunctionofcentralimportancetotheresilienceofrainforestecosystemsisdispersal,particularlyseedandpollendispersal.

Spotted-tailed quoll

Theconservationoflong-rangeseeddispersalandpollinatorfaunaisimportanttopromotegeneticadaptation.Sometreeshavehighlymobilepollinatorsandthetransferofpollenfromwarmeradaptedand/ormorestresstolerantpopulationsofaspeciestolesswelladaptedortolerantindividualswillhelpthemproduceoffspringbetteradaptedforawarmerormoreenvironmentallystressfulfuture.

WhiletheimportanceofdispersaltothefunctioningofWetTropicsrainforestecosystemshasbeenafocusofresearchinrecentyears,manyotherspeciesgroupsarealsolikelytoplayanimportantroleinresilience.Althoughlessstudied,highertrophicspeciessuchaspredatorsexertimportanttop-downcontrolsontrophicsystems.Thesepredators,whichgenerallyrequirelargeterritoriesforsurvival,selectivelyremoveindividualsfrompreypopulationsthatarelesswelladaptedtotheirenvironment.Withoutthisselectivepressure,itispossiblethatmanylower-trophicspecieswilltakelongertoadapttochangesinconditionsassociatedwithclimatechange.

TranslocationsTranslocationofspeciesoutsidetheirnaturalrangeentailsrisks.TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange[47]warnsthat‘movingspeciestoadapttothechangingclimatezonesisfraughtwithscientificuncertainties.Theconsequencesofinvasiveorganismscannotbepredicted;manysurpriseswouldbeexpected.’Becauseoftheinherentrisks,translocationisidentifiedhereasapolicyoflastresort,assomethingtoaddressinthefuture,exceptperhapswiththeselectionofprovenancesoftreesforreplantingprojects.Translocationassumesthat:

appropriatehosthabitatsareavailable,correctlyidentifiedandwillnotbe•disrupted

ecologicalrelationshipsarefullyunderstoodandcanbecateredfor•

resourceswillbeavailableforallindividualsofthetranslocatedandresident•species.

Massplantingsbasedonclimaticpredictionsassumecompleteclimaticandbiologicalknowledge,whichisusuallylacking.Plantingsshouldfocusonkeyareassuchasriparianstripswherenaturalresiliencehasbeenlost.Elsewhere,naturalregeneration,perhapsinconjunctionwithweedcontrol,islikelytobeamoreeffectiveapproachtorecoveringresilienceoverlargeareas.Incontrasttoplantings,naturalregrowthcanbeachievedoverlargeareas,islesscostly,andselectsforgenotypesadaptedtotheprevailingclimatetrends.

Spectacled flying fox

Captive breeding and cultivationCaptivebreedingpopulationscouldbeestablishedforspeciesathighriskofextinction.Botanicgardensandherbariacouldplayaroleinthepreservationofspeciesandgeneticmaterialovertimeandcouldplayanimportantroleineducatingthepublicaboutclimatechangeimpacts.

What can be done?Identifysignificantspeciesatriskandplantheirrecoveryandresearchneeds.•

Identify,conserveandencouragekeyfunctionalgroupssuchaslong-range•animaldispersalvectors(seedandpollen).

Developpoliciesandguidelinesregardingthetranslocationofspecies(asa•lastresort).

4.5 Increasing community awareness and mobilising behavioural changeCommunityinvolvementwillbevitaltoameliorateclimatechangeimpactsandreducegreenhousegasemissionsintheWetTropics[49].Whilethepotentialimpactsmaybesevere,theWetTropicsisalsofortunatetohavesignificantcapacitytoreduceemissionsandcreateahealthyandresilientlandscape.Theregionisalsowellplacedtopotentiallybenefitecologicallyandeconomicallyfromcarbonoffsetsthroughtreeplantingprogramswithexceptionallyhighbiodiversityvalue.

Tree planters from TREAT

Community awareness TheAuthorityandarangeofothergovernmentagenciesandcommunitygroupsactivelypromotepubliceducationaboutclimatechangeandhowitsimpactsmaybeaddressed.Communityeducationpromotesthebenefitsofbiodiversityconservationforthecommunity’squalityoflife.Itrangesfromgeneralpublicawarenessabouttheneedtoreduceenergyandresourceusetotheneedtoincorporatebiodiversityconservationintoasustainableregionalcommunity.Forinstance,manyschoolshaveadoptedprogramstominimiseelectricityuseattheschoolandarealsoplantingtreesorbuildingwetlandsinthegroundstoattractwildlife.Landholdersarealsotargetedforeducationabouthowtocontrolweedsandferalanimals,fenceanimalsoutofareasrichinbiodiversityorplanttreestopreventerosionandpromotehabitatforwildlife.

Community engagementTheWetTropicsConservationStrategy[49]advocatescooperativemanagementandcommunityengagementtoaddresspressuresontheWTQWHA.ThereisalreadyastronglocalcultureofconservationandsupportfortheWetTropicsandGreatBarrierReefWorldHeritageAreas.Largesectorsofthecommunityarealreadyactivelyengagedinconservationmeasuressuchasplantingwildlifecorridors,wildlifecareandweedcontrol.Suchactivitiesarenotrestrictedtoconservationistsandnowincludesuchdiversegroupsasprimaryproducers,thetourismindustry,infrastructureproviders,RainforestAboriginalpeopleandlocalbusinesses[49].Forinstance,thecreationoftheBarronRiverGreenCorridor

Media relations

Climate Alliance brochure

Projecthasbeenfundedandimplementedbyalllevelsofgovernmentandarangeofbusinesses,landholdersandvolunteers.Increasingly,localresidentsareseeingthesocialandeconomicbenefitsthatflowfromcommunityconservation.Themajorityofthesemeasuresarealsovitaltohelpaddressclimatechangeimpacts.

What can be done?Continuetoraiseawarenessofclimatechangeandadaptationoptions.•

Developanddistributeeducationalmaterialspecificallyaboutclimate•changeanditsimpactsontheWetTropics.

Enhanceexistingcommunitycapacitytoundertakeconservationworksto•reconnecthabitatandcontrolweedsandferalanimals.

Ensurecommunityinvolvementinregionalplanning.•

Provideincentivesforlandholderstoengageinbiodiversityconservationon•privatelands.

Facilitate,supportandchampioncoordinatedactiononadaptationinvolving•landmanagers,communitiesandgovernmentagencies.

Supportandchampioninitiativestoincreaseregionalcapacitytodealwith•thechallenge.

Promotecommunityinvolvementinclimatechangeandconservation•research.

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POBox2050,Cairns,Qld4870

Tel:0740520555 Fax:0740311364

Email:info@wettropics.gov.au Website:www.wettropics.gov.au

Climate Change - Wet Tropics

Documents

bush Tucker Of The Wet Tropics · traditionally provided a rich source of food, ... Cape York, WA, NT, ... Bush Tucker of the Wet Tropics

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About us | Wet Tropics Management Authority

Rainforest Birds of the Southern Wet Tropics Rainforest Birds Lres.pdfRainforest Birds of the Southern Wet Tropics ... Grandis Forest – About 8km west of Paluma Village, ... long

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TRANSLOCATED FISHES IN STREAMS OF THE WET TROPICS …rainforest-crc.jcu.edu.au/publications/translocated_fishes.pdf · Translocated Fishes in Streams of the Wet Tropics Region 1 1.0

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2012 - Wet Tropics Management · PDF fileRoad Maintenance Code of Practice for the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area 2012 4 What is the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area? The Wet Tropics

naturalised schedule master list Oct 2007 - Wet Tropics

ANNUAL REPORT 2014-2015 - Wet Tropics of Queensland · I am pleased to present the Annual Report 2014-2015 for the Wet Tropics Management Authority. Under the Wet Tropics World Heritage

ANNUAL REPORT & STATE OF THE WET TROPICS REPORT …

ACCEPT ACT ADAPT - Wet Tropics

Wet Tropics World Heritage Protection and Management Act 1993

Adaptation Pathways and Opportunities for the Wet Tropics ...researchonline.jcu.edu.au/38719/1/38719 Marshall 2014.pdf · Adaptation Pathways and Opportunities for the Wet Tropics

DEVELOPING THE WET TROPICS ABORIGINAL CULTURAL …rainforest-crc.jcu.edu.au/publications/plan_proceedings_prelim.pdf · DEVELOPING THE WET TROPICS ABORIGINAL CULTURAL AND NATURAL

CARDWELL - Wet Tropics

Rainforest Birds of the Southern Wet Tropics · Rainforest Birds of the Southern Wet Tropics orange-footed Scrubfowl Megapodius reinwardt DESCRiPTion: Size 40-60cm. Sexes similar

MEDIA RELEASE: EMBARGO UNTIL 7 - Wet Tropics of … … · Web viewThe Wet Tropics Management Authority worked with the Queensland Tourism Industry Council, ... world-heritage values,

Bush Tucker of the Wet Tropics · 2017-08-04 · Bush tucker has also become big business. ... ... Bush Tucker of the Wet Tropics Wet Tropics Management Authority - Rainforest Explorer