Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

Dr. Armi Susandi, MT.

Bandung Institute of Technology

National Council on Climate ChangeRepublic of Indonesia

OUTLINE

Background Objective Basic Concept Data and Methodology Result Analysis Conclusions

Background

Global climate change causes many areas in Indonesia to be vulnerable on its impacts.

Jakarta is projected to be a vulnerable region with high magnitude as compared with the other Indonesia regions.

Up to recent, disaster frequently occurred in Jakarta as impact of pattern change in rainfall.

Objective

Building model to make map of vulnerable index to climate change impacts in Jakarta.

Performing analysis regarding to Jakarta vulnerable index to find the solution as adaptation planning to climate change.

Basic Concept

(IPCC, 2001)

CLIMATE CHANGE

Including VariabilityHuman Interference

MITIGATION

Of Climate Change via

GHG Sources and Sinks

Exposure

Initial Impacts

Of Effects

Autonomous

Adaptations

Residual or

Net Impacts

Planned ADAPTATION

To the Impacts and Vulnerability

Policy Responses

IMP

AC

TS

VU

LNE

RA

BILIT

IES

Vulnerability

‘The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effect of climate change, including climate

variability and extremes’

Adaptive Capacity AC

‘The ability of a system to adjust to climate change to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope

with consequences’

Potential Impacts PI

‘All impacts that may occur given a projected change in climate, without

considering adaptation’

Exposure E

‘The nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic

variations’

Sensitivity S

‘The degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-

related stimuli.

+ -

+ +

Components of Vulnerability

Data and Methodology

Data required:1. Projection of rainfall, land use change, sea level rise, subsidence, and distribution of population.2. Map of rivers, prosperity

Methodology:1. Projection using Fast Fourier Transform and Least Square Non-Linear on variable parameters. 2. Overlay and analysis using GIS software (Geographical Information System)

Flow of the Work

Variable Parameters -1 Prediction Model

Model Output

Building Spatial Map

Overlay

Variable Parameters -2

Variable Parameters -3

Variable Parameters -4

Variable Parameters -5

Vulnerability Index

Building map of climate change vulnerability

Constant Parameters -1

Constant Parameters -2

Rainfall Variable

Subsidence Variable

Land-use Change Variable

Rivers Constant

Population Distribution Variable

Sea Level Rise

Variable

Prosperity Constant

Projection of Mean Rainfall in Wet Months over Jakarta

Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2010)

100

136

172

208

244

280

316

352

388

424

460

496

532

568

600

mm

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

Projection of Rainfall inJakarta (Wet Months 2015)

100

136

172

208

244

280

316

352

388

424

460

496

532

568

600

mm

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta(Wet Months 2020)

100

136

172

208

244

280

316

352

388

424

460

496

532

568

600

mm

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta(Wet Months 2025)

100

136

172

208

244

280

316

352

388

424

460

496

532

568

600

mm

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta(Wet Months 2030)

100

136

172

208

244

280

316

352

388

424

460

496

532

568

600

mm

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta(Wet Months 2035)

100

136

172

208

244

280

316

352

388

424

460

496

532

568

600

mm

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

Projection of Sea Level Rise at North of Jakarta

2010

Tanjung Priok

Cilincing

North

Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

2015

PademanganTanjung Priok

Koja

Cilincing

North

Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

2020

PademanganTanjung Priok

Koja

Cilincing

North

Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

2025

Penjaringan

PademanganTanjung Priok

Koja

Cilincing

North

Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

2030

Penjaringan

PademanganTanjung Priok

Koja

Cilincing

Soekarno-Hatta AirportNorth

Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

2035

Penjaringan

PademanganTanjung Priok

Koja

Cilincing

Soekarno-HattaAirportNorth

Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

Subsidence in 1982 - 1991

(Hasanuddin, 2008)

Subsidence in 1991 - 1997

(Hasanuddin, 2008)

Population in Jakarta (1972)

AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI

Population in Jakarta (1983)

AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI

Population in Jakarta (1993)

AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI

Population in Jakarta (1998)

AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI

Population in Jakarta (2002)

AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI

Projection of Population in Jakarta (2010)

Sum up of population:8,981,200 people

Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005

AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI

Sum up of population:9,168,500 people

Projection of Population in Jakarta (2015)

Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005

AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI

Sum up of population:9,262,600 people

Projection of Population in Jakarta (2020)

Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005

AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI

Sum up of population:9,259,900 people

Projection of Population in Jakarta (2025)

Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005

AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI

Sum up of population:9,533,550 people

Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005

Projection of Population in Jakarta (2030)

AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI

Projection of Population in Jakarta (2035)

Sum up of population:9,715,575 people

Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005

AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI

Map of Rivers in Jakarta

(Hasanuddin, 2008)

Map of Prosperity in Jakarta

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Index of Prosperity

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

Result:“Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta”2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035

Climate Change Vulnerability in Southeast Asia

Flood

Drought

Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Percentage of Index Range:

0.0 – 0.2 = 50 %

0.2 – 0.4 = 20 %

0.4 – 0.6 = 30 %

0.6 – 0.8 = 0 %

0.8 – 1.0 = 0 % (Susandi et. al, 2009)

2010

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

2015

(Susandi et. al, 2009)0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Percentage of Index Range:

0.0 – 0.2 = 30 %

0.2 – 0.4 = 20 %

0.4 – 0.6 = 50 %

0.6 – 0.8 = 0 %

0.8 – 1.0 = 0 %

Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Percentage of Index Range:

0.0 – 0.2 = 0 %

0.2 – 0.4 = 20 %

0.4 – 0.6 = 40 %

0.6 – 0.8 = 40 %

0.8 – 1.0 = 0 % (Susandi et. al, 2009)

2020

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Percentage of Index Range:

0.0 – 0.2 = 0 %

0.2 – 0.4 = 5 %

0.4 – 0.6 = 30 %

0.6 – 0.8 = 65 %

0.8 – 1.0 = 0 % (Susandi et. al, 2009)

2025

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Percentage of Index Range:

0.0 – 0.2 = 0 %

0.2 – 0.4 = 0 %

0.4 – 0.6 = 10 %

0.6 – 0.8 = 70 %

0.8 – 1.0 = 20 % (Susandi et. al, 2009)

2030

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Percentage of Index Range:

0.0 – 0.2 = 0 %

0.2 – 0.4 = 0 %

0.4 – 0.6 = 5 %

0.6 – 0.8 = 20 %

0.8 – 1.0 = 75 % (Susandi et. al, 2009)

2035

Adaptation to Climate Change

From North Area

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

2010Mangrove 30 % of the distance

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

2015

(Susandi et. al, 2009)0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

From North AreaMangrove 60 % of the distance

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

2020

From North AreaMangrove 100 % of the distance

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

2025

From North AreaSea Wall 30 % of the distance

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

2030

From North AreaSea Wall 60 % of the distance

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

2035

From North AreaSea Wall 100 % of the distance

From South Area

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

2010

Development:

1. Water Resource

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

2015

(Susandi et. al, 2009)0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

From South Area

Development:

1. Water Resource

2. Water Collector

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

2020

From South Area

Development:

1. Water Resource

2. Water Collector

3. Polder

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

2025

From South Area

Development:

1. Water Resource

2. Water Collector

3. Polder

4. Networking Pipes

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

2030

From South Area

Development:

1. Water Resource

2. Water Collector

3. Polder

4. Networking Pipes

5. More Pipes & Polder

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

2035

From South Area

Development:

1. Water Resource

2. Water Collector

3. Polder

4. Networking Pipes

5. More Pipes & Polder

Combination From North and South Area

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

2010Mangrove 30 % of the distance

Development:

1. Water Resource

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

2015

(Susandi et. al, 2009)0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Mangrove 60 % of the distance

Combination From North and South Area

Development:

1. Water Resource

2. Water Collector

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

2020Mangrove 100 % of the distance

Combination From North and South Area

Development:

1. Water Resource

2. Water Collector

3. Polder

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

2025Sea Wall 30 % of the distance

Combination From North and South Area

Development:

1. Water Resource

2. Water Collector

3. Polder

4. Networking Pipes

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

2030Sea Wall 60 % of the distance

Combination From North and South Area

Development:

1. Water Resource

2. Water Collector

3. Polder

4. Networking Pipes

5. More Pipes & Polder

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

2035Sea Wall 100 % of the distance

Combination From North and South Area

Development:

1. Water Resource

2. Water Collector

3. Polder

4. Networking Pipes

5. More Pipes & Polder

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armi@geoph.itb.ac.id

www.armisusandi.com (Click)

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