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Climate Change: The Role of Technology and Transport in Mitigation. Brian S. Fisher CRA International. Greenhouse gas stabilisation scenarios. Source: IPCC WGIII Fourth Assessment Report. World transport energy use in 2000, by mode. Projected growth in vehicles. million. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Climate Change: The Role of Technology and Transport in
Mitigation
Brian S. Fisher
CRA International
Greenhouse gas stabilisation scenariosScenarioCategory
Radiative Forcing
CO2
Conc.
CO2-eq
Conc.
Global mean temp rise above
pre-industrial
Peaking year for
CO2
emissions
No. of assessed scenarios
W/m2 ppm ppm °C Year
I 2.5 – 3.0 350 – 400 445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 – 2015
6
II 3.0 – 3.5 400 – 440 490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 – 2020
18
III 3.5 – 4.0 440 – 485 535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 – 2030
21
IV 4.0 – 5.0 485 – 570 590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 – 2060
118
V 5.0 – 6.0 570 – 660 710 – 855 4.0 – 4.9 2050 – 2080
9
VI 6.0 – 7.5 660 – 790 855 – 1130 4.9 – 6.1 2060 – 2090
5
Total 177Source: IPCC WGIII Fourth Assessment Report
World transport energy use in 2000, by mode
Projected growth in vehicles
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990 2000 2010 2020
million
Vehicle ownership as a function of per capita income
Data Source: World Bank 2004
Note: plotted years vary by country depending on data availability
Projections for transport GHG emissions in 2020 for some cities of developing countries
Source: Sperling & Salon, 2002
Historical & projected CO2 emission from transport by modes, 1970 - 2050
Source: IEA, 2005; WBCSD, 2004b
Projection of transport energy consumption by region & mode
Source: WBCSD, 2004a
The effect of a scenario postulating the market penetration of all technologies
Source: WBCSD, 2004a
Key conclusions
• Global energy consumption will grow rapidly over the coming 50 years– Much of this growth will occur in developing countries
• Rapid advances in energy technology and diffusion are necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
• Global greenhouse gas emissions will only peak by 2050 if global income growth slows substantially or with the deployment of unforeseen amounts of non-carbon energy
• Technological change and deployment of new energy technologies together with unprecedented global political cooperation are the keys to the solution of the climate change problem
• All transport modes have a part to play but road transport will need to be a major focus
Partnership technologyMajor technical advances in energy efficiency in energy intensive industries in Partnership economies by 2050
- thermal efficiency of black coal power stations 65%- thermal efficiency of gas fired power stations 74%- 80% of motor vehicle fleet non-conventional engines- 45% reduction in energy intensity in cement industry- 18% reduction in energy intensity in aluminium- 30% reduction in energy intensity in pulp and paper- 30% reduction in energy intensity in iron and steel
Partnership technology + CCSAs above plus all new coal and gas fired power stations fitted with carbon capture and storage from 2015 in Australia, Japan and United States and from 2020 in China, India and South Korea
Source:ABARE
Definition of scenarios
Global technologyMajor technical advances in energy efficiency in energy intensive industries as set out for Partnership economies fully diffused throughout the world
Global technology + CCSAs above plus all new coal and gas fired power stations fitted with carbon capture and storage from 2015 in Annex B countries and from 2020 in China, India and South Korea
Source: ABARE
Definition of scenarios
Source: ABARE
Source: ABARE
Source: ABARE
Source: ABARE
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