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Climate change

Source: IPCC Assessment Report,

2007

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Boiling frog effect

Al Gore - 45th Vice President of the United States from 1993 to 2001

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Lifespan of a frog & the time for boilingwaterLifespan of human & the time forclimate change

If the time for boiling wateris 6 or 7 years, should the

same frog care about beingboiled or starving to deathin the pot?

=> Cost Benefit Analysis(CBA)

B L 2 1 T

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Basic greenhouse effect (pp. 259 to 260)

B orn Lom org, 2 1 T e ept caorn om org, e ep caenvironmentalistenvironmentalist

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How much does CO2 affect thetemperature?

- Particles

- Water vapour

,,environmentalistenvironmentalistHow much does CO2 affect the temperature?

(pp.265 to 266)

j b ( ) h k i lBj L b (2001) Th Sk ti l

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Bjorn Lomborg, (2001) The SkepticalBjorn Lomborg, (2001) The Skeptical

environmentalistenvironmentalist

- Land ice melts contributes

of SLR- Thermal expansion of

water within the oceans

contributes of SLR

Consequences: sea level rise(pp. 289 to 291)

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The number of people at riskis unreasonable:

IPCC neglected theimprovement in sea

protection and so thenumber of people in riskareas increases with thetotal population.

The IPCC assumptionevolving protection only

includes measures thatwould be implementedwithout sea level rise is notreasonable

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Debates

The experts continued arguing about the Greenland and WestAntarctica.

80% of 300 million people live less than 5 meters above sea levelare in developing countries. The high-risk red zone such as

Egypt and Vietnam and low-lyingisland nations and coastal areas ofother countries.

In Vietnam, 38% of the countryspopulation, 36% of its GDP, and 87%of its wetlands located at less than 5meters above sea level.

The IPCC Debate on Sea Level Rise: Critical Stakes for Poor Countries (DavidThe IPCC Debate on Sea Level Rise: Critical Stakes for Poor Countries (David

Wheeler, Feb 2, 2007), Page 1:Wheeler, Feb 2, 2007), Page 1:

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GPS Aids in Sea Level Rise Debate, World Climate ReportGPS Aids in Sea Level Rise Debate, World Climate Report

February 9, 2010February 9, 2010

IPCC with Glacial-Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) corrected: Over

the 1961 to 2003 period, the average rate of global mean sealevel rise is estimated from tide gauge data to be 1.8 0.5mm yr1.

Wppelmann with GPS corrected: Sea level rise of 1.61 0.19 mm/yr over the past century

Measuring sea level changes is more difficult than one mightthink, and uncertainties abound

The origin of the differences lies in the methods used tocorrect the tide gauge records for vertical displacements ofthe land upon which they are located.

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Decadal rate of sea level rise from satellites (red curve) appended to the decadal rate of global sea level rise

as determined from a 9-station tide gauge network for the period 1904-2003 (blue curve) and from a 177-

station tide gauge network for the period 1948-2002 (adapted from Holgate, 2007).

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The change in the net relative sea level trend in mm/year between June2008 and June 2009 (National Tidal Centre, Bureau of Meteorology,Australian Government, 2009)

li h

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Response to climate changeand SLR

Source: Copenhagen Consensus

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Case study: Mekong Delta inVietnam

Adaptation to Sea Level Rise

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Six Climate ThreatsTop 12 Countries Most at Risk

Drought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Agriculture

Malawi Bangladesh Philippines All low-lying

Island states

Sudan

Ethiopia China Bangladesh VietnamVietnam Senegal

Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Zimbabwe

India Cambodia VietnamVietnam Tunisia Mali

Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Zambia

Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Morocco

Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Niger

Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico India

Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Malawi

Chad VietnamVietnam China Bangladesh Algeria

Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Ethiopia

Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Pakistan

Source: World Bank, 2008

S l l i i i

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Sea level rise scenarios inMekong Delta

Source: Ministry of Natural Resourcesand Environment, Vietnam, 2009

Sea LevelRise

Inundatedareas

Scenario 1 65 cm 5,133 km2

(12.8%)Scenario 2 75 cm 5,780 km2

(19%)

Scenario 3 100 cm 15,116 km2

(37.8%)

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Adaptation to Sea Level Rise

Governmentsresponses:

- Policies: Law,

strategy, legaldocument

- Living with flood

policy

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- Dyke systems- Technology andknowledge support for

weather forecast, newseeds, climate changescenarios.

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Adaptation to Sea Level Rise

Farmers responses:

- Shifting from Agriculture to Aquaculture

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- Bamboo stilts and mangroveplanting

oo scap ng

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oo - scap ngCommunities or People

Clusters

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The story of a monkey

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