View
26
Download
2
Category
Tags:
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
Climate Change Goals for the Metropolitan Washington Area. Climate Change Steering Committee February 27, 2008 Joan Rohlfs, MWCOG/DEP. Regional Goals & Ways to Get There. Propose Short-Term Goal (2012) Low Hanging Fruit Interim Goal for 2020: 20% Below 2005 Actions to Reach Goal - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
1
Climate Change Goals for the
Metropolitan Washington Area
Climate Change Steering CommitteeFebruary 27, 2008
Joan Rohlfs, MWCOG/DEP
2
Regional Goals & Ways to Get Regional Goals & Ways to Get ThereThere
Propose Short-Term Goal (2012)Propose Short-Term Goal (2012) Low Hanging FruitLow Hanging Fruit
Interim Goal for 2020: 20% Below Interim Goal for 2020: 20% Below 20052005 Actions to Reach GoalActions to Reach Goal
Adoption of Long Term Goals (2050)Adoption of Long Term Goals (2050) Policies to Reach GoalPolicies to Reach Goal
3
Projected Emissions and Proposed Reduction Targets
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO
2e E
mis
sio
ns
(mil
lio
n M
T)
2005 Base Year
BAU
Reduction Targets70%
20%
4
Regional Short Regional Short Term Goal: Term Goal:
20122012
5
Long Term and Short Long Term and Short Term GoalsTerm Goals
Long Term Goals Needed to Stabilize Long Term Goals Needed to Stabilize ClimateClimate
Spur investment in new technologySpur investment in new technology Incentive for technological innovationIncentive for technological innovation
Short Term GoalsShort Term Goals to Insure Immediate to Insure Immediate ProgressProgress Analyze strategies using existing Analyze strategies using existing
technologytechnology Nearer term year is easier to comprehend, Nearer term year is easier to comprehend,
anticipateanticipate
6
Local Government Short Local Government Short Term GoalsTerm Goals
Cool Counties agreement : Cool Counties agreement : Stop Stop emissions growth in 2010emissions growth in 2010
Mayors’ Agreement: Reduce 7% Mayors’ Agreement: Reduce 7% below 1990 by below 1990 by 20122012
7
Proposed Short Term Proposed Short Term Goal: 2012Goal: 2012
Proposed goal: Reduce 7% by 2012Proposed goal: Reduce 7% by 2012
2005-2012 Emissions expected to 2005-2012 Emissions expected to increase by 7%increase by 7%
Achievement of 7% reduction goal by Achievement of 7% reduction goal by 2012 would return regional emissions 2012 would return regional emissions to 2005 levelsto 2005 levels
8
Low Hanging FruitLow Hanging Fruit
9
Individual ActionsIndividual Actions
Individuals contribute an estimated Individuals contribute an estimated 7 tons CO2e per year7 tons CO2e per year Residential energy use (37%)Residential energy use (37%)
Appliance use, AC and heatingAppliance use, AC and heating Transportation (63%)Transportation (63%)
Personal car use, mass transit, air travelPersonal car use, mass transit, air travel
Source: M. Vandenbergh, “Carbon Neutral Individual,” 2007
10
Total use per Total use per householdhousehold
Metric Metric tons tons CO2CO2 %%
HeatingHeating 1.581.58 24%24%
Electricity.Electricity. 0.870.87 13%13%
Transp/Auto/AirTransp/Auto/Air 4.134.13 63%63%
TOTALTOTAL 6.586.58 100%100%
Individual Contribution to GHG Emissions
11
Individual GHG EmissionsIndividual GHG Emissions
Individuals contribute about 1/3 of CO2 Individuals contribute about 1/3 of CO2 emissions in the U.S.emissions in the U.S.
Individuals can play an important role Individuals can play an important role in achieving short and long term targetsin achieving short and long term targets
Some behaviors can be modified to Some behaviors can be modified to generate large emission reductions generate large emission reductions (“low hanging fruit”)(“low hanging fruit”)
12
TransportationTransportation
Buy more efficient carBuy more efficient car Carpool w/ 2 othersCarpool w/ 2 others Cut shopping trips in Cut shopping trips in
½½ Alter driving habitsAlter driving habits Get frequent tune-upsGet frequent tune-ups Maintain tire Maintain tire
pressurepressure
Subtotal:Subtotal:
20%20%
4%4%
2%2%
2%2%
2%2%
1%1%
31%31%
Reduction
13
Household Energy ReductionHousehold Energy Reduction Weatherize houseWeatherize house Install efficient HVACInstall efficient HVAC Reduce inside temp to Reduce inside temp to
6868oo
Install efficient water Install efficient water heater, reduce by 20heater, reduce by 20oo
Install efficient Install efficient appliancesappliances
Change bulbs to CFLChange bulbs to CFL
10%10% 8%8% 4%4% 3%3% 2.5%2.5% 1.0%1.0%
SUBTOTAL: 28.5%
Reduction
14
//Illustration of Impact of Consumer Reductions on Overall CO2
Emissions (2012)
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
BAU 60% Reduction
CO
2e E
mis
sio
ns
(mil
lio
n M
T)
All Else
Consumers
Impact of 60% Reduction in Consumer Emissions
by 2012
15
60% Reductions from 60% Reductions from ConsumersConsumers
Assumes 2012 BAU emissionsAssumes 2012 BAU emissions 33 percent are consumers33 percent are consumers Consumers can reduce by 60%Consumers can reduce by 60% BAU is 82.3 million MTBAU is 82.3 million MT Reductions would be 16.3 million Reductions would be 16.3 million
MTMT Equivalent to about 20 percent from Equivalent to about 20 percent from
overall BAU.overall BAU.
16
Midterm Goal: Midterm Goal: 20202020
How to get How to get there…there…
17
Example: Transportation Example: Transportation Scenario for 2020Scenario for 2020
Transportation EmissionsTransportation Emissions 2005 to 20202005 to 2020 Increase 24.6%Increase 24.6% Reduction Goal:Reduction Goal: Reduce: 20% below Reduce: 20% below
20052005
Reduction MeasuresReduction Measures CAFÉ Standards CAFÉ Standards Reduce 20.0%Reduce 20.0% 55 mpg by 202055 mpg by 2020 Reduce 5.1%Reduce 5.1% VMT limit (?)VMT limit (?)
18
Measures to Reduce Regional GHGMeasures to Reduce Regional GHG
RGGIRGGI
RPSRPS
Biomass Fueled Power PlantsBiomass Fueled Power Plants
Green BuildingsGreen Buildings
Energy ConservationEnergy Conservation
Low Carbon FuelLow Carbon Fuel
Low Emission VehiclesLow Emission Vehicles
Smart Growth/Reduced VMTSmart Growth/Reduced VMT
CAFE/CAL LEVCAFE/CAL LEV
Tree Canopy ConservationTree Canopy Conservation
2%2%
3%3%
3%3%
2%2%
5%5%
1%1%
1%1%
2%2%
4%4%
Apply to DC/MD/VAApply to DC/MD/VA
10% RPS, applied to all 10% RPS, applied to all electricity, electricity,
MD 8%MD 8%
40 % buildings 10-30 % 40 % buildings 10-30 % reduction, reduction,
Assume 15%, double counts with Assume 15%, double counts with GBGB
Displace 0.8 to 1.6% by 2012Displace 0.8 to 1.6% by 2012
Above and beyond CAFÉAbove and beyond CAFÉ
Between 2% and 10%Between 2% and 10%
14% based on COG DTP14% based on COG DTP
AssumptionMeasure %
19
How to Get 20 % Reduction by 2020
Emission Reduction Opportunities (2005-2020)
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
2005 Emissions 2020 Emissions/Reductions
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(mill
ion
met
ric
ton
s)
CAFE/CAL LEV
Smart Growth/Reduced VMT
Low Emission Vehicles
Low Carbon Fuel
Energy Conservation
Green Buildings
Biomass Fueled Power Plants
RPS
RGGI
Uncontrolled
20% Reduction
Goal
20
Long Term Goal:Long Term Goal: 2050 2050
21
IPCC Stabilization IPCC Stabilization Scenario- 2050Scenario- 2050
IPCC recommends reduction in IPCC recommends reduction in global CO2 emissions in 2050 of global CO2 emissions in 2050 of 50-50-8585 %% (of 2000 emissions (of 2000 emissions
Stabilization defined as CO2-eq Stabilization defined as CO2-eq concentration at 445-490 ppm, concentration at 445-490 ppm,
Global mean temperature increase Global mean temperature increase kept at 2.0-2.4kept at 2.0-2.4oo C C
22
Proposed Long Term Proposed Long Term Regional Regional
GHG Reduction GoalGHG Reduction Goal
Based on science in IPCC Report and Based on science in IPCC Report and consistent with the Warner consistent with the Warner Lieberman bill’s reduction goalsLieberman bill’s reduction goals
70% below 2005 by 2050
23
Regional Greenhouse Emissions (2005)
Source: MWCOG estimates.
CO2 Emissions by Sector for the Washington, DC-MD-VA Region
Transportation30%
Electricity41%
Fuel Use25%
Others4%
Transportation
Electricity
Fuel Use
Others
24
Estimated Washington Region CO2 Emissions, 2005-2030 (Business As Usual)
MWCOG Dept. of Environmental Programs, Sept. 2007
Draft CO2e Emissions Projections for the Washington, DC-MD-VA Region
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
2005 2010 2020 2030
CO
2e E
mis
sio
ns
(mil
lio
n M
T)
Other
Fuel Use
Electricity
Transportation
25
List of Actual and Potential List of Actual and Potential Government Programs to Government Programs to Reduce GHG EmissionsReduce GHG Emissions
Federal MeasuresFederal Measures Energy Bill of 2007 (CAFÉ standards, EEE)Energy Bill of 2007 (CAFÉ standards, EEE) Energy Efficient appliance standardsEnergy Efficient appliance standards Establish price and trading for carbon Establish price and trading for carbon
emissionsemissions Limit CO2 emissions from power plants, motor Limit CO2 emissions from power plants, motor
vehiclesvehicles Invest in Renewable energy technology (solar, Invest in Renewable energy technology (solar,
wind, hydro)wind, hydro) Support nuclear energy researchSupport nuclear energy research
State Measures:State Measures: CAL LEV limits on mobile CO2 emissionsCAL LEV limits on mobile CO2 emissions RGGIRGGI Renewable Porfolio Standards (RE as % of Renewable Porfolio Standards (RE as % of
Energy Efficiency goals)Energy Efficiency goals) Require GHG emissions analysis as part of Require GHG emissions analysis as part of
Environmental Impact analysesEnvironmental Impact analyses
LocalLocal Purchase of alternative/renewable energyPurchase of alternative/renewable energy Increase tree canopyIncrease tree canopy LED traffic lightsLED traffic lights Incentives to build to LEED standards (green Incentives to build to LEED standards (green
buildings)buildings) Education and OutreachEducation and Outreach
Federal
State
Local
26
RecommendationsRecommendations
Adopt Regional Climate Change Adopt Regional Climate Change Goals:Goals: 20122012Reduce GHG emissions by 7%Reduce GHG emissions by 7% 20202020Reduce GHG emissions by 20% Reduce GHG emissions by 20%
below 2005below 2005 20502050Reduce GHG emission by 70% Reduce GHG emission by 70%
below 2005below 2005
Recommended