Climate Change: Globally and In Iowa

Climate Change:Globally and In Iowa

Climate Change:Globally and In Iowa

Eugene S. TakleDirector, Climate Science Initiative

Professor of Atmospheric Science

Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences

Professor of Agricultural Meteorology

Department of Agronomy

Iowa State University

Ames, Iowa 50011

gstakle@iastate.edu

Eugene S. TakleDirector, Climate Science Initiative

Professor of Atmospheric Science

Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences

Professor of Agricultural Meteorology

Department of Agronomy

Iowa State University

Ames, Iowa 50011

gstakle@iastate.edu

PEOAmes, Iowa 

22 June 2010

Base period 1961-90

Observations: global mean temperature andcarbon dioxide are rising together since 1860

Global average sea level is rising from expansion of water due to warming and melting glaciers

www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/

Since 1992 sealevel has risen 55mm(2.2 inches)

Models: Natural processes do not account forobserved 20th century warming after 1965

Observed Trends in Iowa Precipitation

Observed Trends in Iowa Precipitation

State-Wide Average Data

State-Wide Average Data

31.5”

37.5”

19% increase

State-Wide Average Data

Totals above 40” 8 years2 years

State-Wide Average Data

Cedar Rapids Data

28.0” 37.0”32% increase

Cedar Rapids Data

7.8” 51% increase 11.8”

Cedar Rapids Data

20.2” 34% increase 26.8”

“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “

Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Cedar Rapids Data

4.2 days 57% increase 6.6 days

Cedar Rapids Data

4.2 days 57% increase 6.6 days

2

11Years having more than 8 days

Great Flood of 1993 in the US Midwest:A New “Great Lake”

Lakshmi, V., and K. Schaaf, 2001: Analysis of the 1993 Midwestern flood using satellite and ground data. IEEE Trans. Geosci & Remote Sens., 39, 1736-1743.

Historical Data indicate this should happen about once every 500 years

Projected Future Trends in Iowa Precipitation

Projected Future Trends in Iowa Precipitation

“The future isn’t what it used to be”

Yogi Berra

Global Carbon Emissions (Gt)

Actual emissions are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 1990

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

Limit to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic Interference” with the climate system

Energy intensiveBalanced fuel sourcesMore environmentally friendly

2oC limit

Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Low confidence

Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Trend of increase in occurrence of heavy precipitation over the 20th C is consistent with increasing GHG concentrations.

Frequency of intense precipitation events is likely to increase in the future.

Relationship of Streamflow to Precipitation in Current and Future Climates

Relationship of Streamflow to Precipitation in Current and Future Climates

SWAT (RegCM2): 21 % increase in precip -> 50% increase in streamflow

DrainMod (RegCM2): 24 % increase in precip -> 35% increase in tile drainage

DrainMod (HIRHAM): 32 % increase in precip -> 80% increase in tile drainage

Iowa Agricultural Producers’ Adaptations to Climate Change

Iowa Agricultural Producers’ Adaptations to Climate Change

Longer growing season: plant earlier, plant longer season hybrids, harvest later

Wetter springs: larger machinery enables planting in smaller weather windows

More summer precipitation: higher planting densities for higher yields

Wetter springs and summers: more subsurface drainage tile is being installed, closer spacing, sloped surfaces

Fewer extreme heat events: higher planting densities, fewer pollination failures

Higher humidity: more spraying for pathogens favored by moist conditions. more problems with fall crop dry-down, wider bean heads for faster harvest due to shorter harvest period during the daytime.

Drier autumns: delay harvest to take advantage of natural dry-down conditions

Longer growing season: plant earlier, plant longer season hybrids, harvest later

Wetter springs: larger machinery enables planting in smaller weather windows

More summer precipitation: higher planting densities for higher yields

Wetter springs and summers: more subsurface drainage tile is being installed, closer spacing, sloped surfaces

Fewer extreme heat events: higher planting densities, fewer pollination failures

Higher humidity: more spraying for pathogens favored by moist conditions. more problems with fall crop dry-down, wider bean heads for faster harvest due to shorter harvest period during the daytime.

Drier autumns: delay harvest to take advantage of natural dry-down conditions

HIGHER YIELDS!!Is it genetics or climate? Likely

some of each.

For More InformationFor More Information

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website: http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/

Contact me directly: gstakle@iastate.edu

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website: http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/

Contact me directly: gstakle@iastate.edu