Climate change and the future of world agriculture MARTHA ANNE DEBERRY SYDNEY FOGLE RACHEL...

Climate change and the future of world agriculture

MARTHA ANNE DEBERRYSYDNEY FOGLE

RACHEL HIMMELSTEINLEIGH SNELGROVE

None Like it Hot

General Information

Effects

Regions

Agriculture

Food Production

North America

North America Climate Change

Increase in Temperature Increase in temperature 1-2°C from 2010-2039 Greatest in winter at high latitudes and greatest in the

summer in the south-west U.S

Precipitation Decrease in the south-west of the U.S Yet increase over the rest of the continent Greater risk of flooding with high precipitation Risk of droughts because of greater temporal

variability in precipitation

North America Freshwater Resources

Surface Water Melting and significant reductions in snowpack in the

western mountains by the middle of the 21st century Water sheds dominated by snowmelt will lead to

snowmelt runoff advances, winter and early spring flows increase (raising flooding

potential), summer flows decrease substantially

Effects to Columbia River Effects to the Great Lakes

North America Agriculture

Moderate climate change will likely increase yields of North American: Rain-fed agriculture, but with smaller increases and

more spatial variability

Areas with decreased precipitation would restrict the availability of water for irrigation At the same time increasing water demand for

irrigated agriculture and urban and ecological uses

Latin America

Extreme Weather Events from 2004-2006

Latin America Climate Change

DJF= December/January/February, JJA= June/July/August.

Latin America Freshwater Resources

Almost 13.9% of the Latin American population (71.5 million people) have no access to a safe water supply; 63% of these (45 million people) live in rural areas

Severe stress can be expected in Eastern Central America Eastern and Western regions of El Salvador Central valley and Pacific regions of Costa Rica Northern, central and western inter-montane regions

of Honduras Peninsula of Azuero in Panama

Latin America Agriculture

Predicted 2000-2010 South American and Central American deforestation hotspots and diffuse deforestation areas .

Europe and Climate Change

Difference between Northern and Southern Europe

Northern Europe will benefit from the climate change.

Southern Europe will suffer more from the climate change.

Human Health in Europe

Impact on Socioeconomics

Climate Change and Asia

Impact on Asia’s Agriculture

Asia’s Rice Supply

“No one eats more rice than Asia,” -Deputy Director-General for Research at IRRI (International Rice Research Institute)

Mongolia

•ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE INCREASE OF 0.4-2.0 °C BY 2030•ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE INCREASE OF 1.0-6.0°C BY 2070

•SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA RAINFALL DECLINE BY 5-20% BY 2030•SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA RAINFALL DECLINE BY 5-10% BY 2070

•INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME EVENTS

Predicted Effects of Climate Change on

Australia

Predicted Effects of Climate Change on

Australia

Reduction inwheat yields0-5 per cent5-10 per cent10-15 per cent15-20 per cent> 20 per cent

CHANGE IN NATIONAL GROSS VALUE OF THE WHEAT CROP IN YEAR 2070 (A) WITHOUT ADAPTATION (B)

WITH ADAPTATION

Predicted Effects of Climate Change on

Australia

MURRAY-DARLING BASIN

Predicted Effects of Climate Change on

Australia

GOYDER’S LINE WHEAT BELT

Predicted Effects of Climate Change on

Australia

•FARM READY

•CLIMATE CHANGE ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM

•TRANSITIONAL INCOME SUPPORT

•FARM BUSINESS ANALYSIS AND FINANCIAL ASSESSMENT

Australia’s Farming Future: Department of Agriculture, Fisheries

and Forestry

Predicted Effects of Climate Change in Africa

•NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY ISSUES

•SOUTH AFRICAN HIGHVELD REGION

Climate Change in Africa: Cause for Concern

•DIFFERENT CROPS

•IRRIGATION SYSTEMS

•SOIL CONSERVATION

•CHANGING PLANTING DATES

•CHANGING AMOUNT OF LAND UNDER CULTIVATION

•IMPLEMENTING NEW TECHNOLOGY

Farmer Adaptations toClimate Change in Africa

Barriers to Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa

Responses

PreventativeAdaptiveTechnological

Preventative Measures

The “Greening Hypothesis”

Adaptation

Technological

Questions?

Resources

“4 Examples of Genetically Modified Crops.” BIONET. 2002. <www.bionetonline.org/English/Content/ff_cont4.htm>. 30 Apr 2010.

Agriculture and Climate Change in Europe-Regional Facts and Challenges. Univeristy of Rostock, Germany: 2007. Agriculture and Rural Development Department. “Climate Change and Agriculture: A Review of Impacts and Adaptations”.

June 2003. <http://www.c-ciarn.uoguelph.ca/documents/World_Bank_Paper.pdf>. 13 Mar 2010.Australian Government: Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry. “Australia’s Farming Future.”

<http://www.daff.gov.au/climatechange/australias-farming-future>. 10 Feb 2010.Bryan, E. et. al. “Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: options and constraints.” Environmental Science &

Policy. Vol. 12:2009. Dume, Belle. “How could climate change affect farming in Europe?”. Science of the Total Environment, 2009. <

http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/40689>. 20 Apr 1010. Fowler, Cary. “One Seed at a Time: Protecting the Future of Food.” TED. 2009. <http://www.ted.com

cary_fowler_one_seed_at_a_time_protecting_the_future_of_food.html>. 30 Apr 2010.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2010. <http://www.ipcc.ch/>. 20 Apr 2010.Kingwell, Rob. Department of Africulture, Western Australia and University of

Western Australia. “Climate change in Australia: agricultural impacts and adaptation.” Australian Agribusiness Review. Vol. 14:2006. <http://www.agrifood.info/review/2006/Kingwell.pdf>.

National Science Federation. Global Climate Change. 2002. <http://www.exploratorium.edu/climate/>. 15 Mar 2010Shulze, R.E. and N.J. Walker. “Climate change impacts of agro-ecosystem sustainability

across three climate regions in the maize belt of South Africa.” Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. Vol. 124:2008.“South Asia and Climate Change: A Development and Environmental Issue”. The World Bank Group, 2010. <

http://go.worldbank.org/0XAV4BYO60>. 26 Apr 2010.Tang, Penny. “Climate Change and Asia’s Rice Supply”. Asia Society Hong Kong Center, 2010. <http://www.asiasociety.org>.

20 Apr 2010.The Academy of Natural Sciences, Asia Center. Climate Change at Hövsgöl ILTER. 2010. 20 Apr 2010.