climate change and sustainable development

climate change and sustainable development

Julian MorrisVice President for Research, The Reason Foundation

Overview

What is “sustainable development”? What are the likely impacts of climate change? How to address climate change in a way that is

consistent with sustainable development:– Addressing today’s problems first– Promoting economic development

A question of morality

Sustainable Development is …

“development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”

Brundtland Commission, 1997

Likely Impacts of Climate Change

Hypothesised Impact Evidence?Increased precipitation YESIncreased incidence of storms, hurricanes

?

Increased rate of reduction in glaciers ?Increased rate of sea-level rise ?More hot days, fewer cold days YESIncreased disease NOChange in ranges of species YES

Is cutting carbon emissions a sensible way to address climate

change?

Source: Lomborg 2001

Assumes:

1. IPCC SAR Median warming scenario

2. Kyoto restrictions applied until 2100

Adapting to ChangeProblem Adaptive ResponsesMalaria, dengue, etc. Pesticides, air conditioningDiarrhoeal diseases Clean water, sanitationFlooding – increased precipitation

Flood barriers, houses on stilts, migration

Heat exhaustion – increase in hot days

Fans, air conditioning, building structures

Crop damage – aridity New crop varieties (GM)Change in ranges of species

Improved incentives for sustainable management

Overall, Wealthier is Healthierlife expectancy at birth and GNI/cap (PPP) - 2003

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000

GNI per cap PPP

Life

exp

ecta

ncy

at b

irth

Data: World Bank

Wealth and Access to Potable Water

Access to Potable Water, GNI -- 2004

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000

GNI/cap (US$ PPP)

Acc

ess

to 'i

mpr

oved

' wat

er

Data: World Bank

Economic Growth

Economic Growth 1AD - 2005 AD

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

0 500 1000 1500 2000

YEAR

GD

P/c

apita

(Con

stan

t US

$, P

PP

)

Data: Angus Maddison

Falling Proportion of Poor

Source: Martin Wolf

Technology, Trade and Health

Improvements in Nutrition 1960 - 2000

Daily Calorific Intake by Region 1960 - 2000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s

Period

Dai

ly c

alor

ies

per

capi

ta

EUROPE

U.S.

S. AMERICA

ASIA

AFRICA

WORLD

As GDP Rises, Deaths from Extreme Weather Events Fall

Death Rates from Extreme Weather Events and GDP per capita, 1920 - 2007

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1920-29 1930-39 1940-49 1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-07

Deat

hs p

er m

illio

n

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

GDP

Per

Cap

ita, C

onst

ant U

S$ P

PP

Death Rates GDP/cap

Data: EM-DAT, World Bank

=> Rising Life Expectancy

life Expectancy at Birth 1960 - 2005

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Ave

rage

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

(yea

rs)

 High income

 Low income

 Middle income

 World

if we are really serious about reducing all these problems, our focus should not be on reducing climate change, or even, for the

most part, on addressing the problems directly.

instead, our focus should be on enabling economic development

But with carbon control … Resources will be diverted into lower-carbon

technologies – and away from other technologies and wealth enhancing activities.

Carbon control legitimises the imposition of the very barriers that currently hold people in poor countries back!

So, people in the future will be less wealthy, will continue to suffer diseases, drought and other problems that would likely otherwise be solved.

Indoor Air Pollution in India

In 2001, more than two thirds of the Indian population relied on “biomass” fuels.

Sources: Indian Council of Medical Research & Census of India 2001

Annual Deaths from IAP (2000)

Children Under 5 (Thousands)

Total (Thousands)

India 290 420

China 50 420

World 910 1,600

Source: WHO

Is it morally defensible to divert money, human effort and other

resources away from real problems that exist today and from

investments that might enable our descendants to adapt to a changing

world?

Contact me:

julian.morris@reason.org