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Climate Change and Displacement: Data for a Difficult SubjectIFMS 2020 Session A.1Sunday, 19 January 2020
www.internal-displacement.orgPANTONEP 108-16 C
DECEMBER 2019
METHODOLOGICAL PAPER
INTRODUCTION
A number of attempts have been made to estimate the
future scale of climate-related migration, but relatively few
peer-reviewed studies examine the risk as it applies to displace-
ment.1 The latter lack of evidence is surprising for at least
three reasons.
First, the impacts of unplanned or spontaneous mass displace-
ment would inevitably be disruptive and may trigger human-
itarian crises, something that is not expected in the case of
planned or adaptive migration.2
Second, the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) calls for “ recom-
mendations for integrated approaches to avert, minimize and
address displacement related to the adverse impacts of climate
change” .3 If the risk of future displacement is to be addressed,
it must first be measured and its drivers identified.
Third, displacement associated with disasters is already a
significant global challenge. Climate and weather-related
hazards force tens of millions of people to flee their homes
every year.4 Floods trigger just over half of these displace-
ments, and storms more than a third (see figure 1).5
Geo
physic
al 12.73% Weather-related 87.27%
Dry massmovements
Wet massmovements
Extremetemperatures
Volcanicerupt ions
Wildfi resDrought
Earthquakes
(incl. tsunamis)
StormsFloods
50.62%34.54%
12.23%
0.77% 0.61% 0.46% 0.40% 0.34% 0.03%
Source: IDMC
Disaster displacement at a glance
What data is collected? By whom?
Challenge 1: Conceptual clarity
Migration / migration as
adaptation
Planned relocation
Displacement
Voluntary Forced/Involuntary
Challenge 1: Conceptual clarity
Typology of pastoralist movements
Challenge 2: Monitoring displacement over time
Filling gaps in observational data
Universal decay rate (Source: IDMC)Displacement est imates from Cyclone Fani in parts of India(Source: Facebook and IDMC)
Challenge 3: Attributing impacts of climate change
Challenge 3: Attributing impacts of climate change
Estimating displacement risk
Short-term variations between decades are the result of natural climate variability. The light lines show the different combinations of climate and hydrological models.
The darker lines show their average.
Relative change in global
displacement risk compared with the 1976 – 2005 baseline (RCP 2.6 + SSP 1 and RCP 6.0 +
SSP 4)
Estimating future flood displacement risk scenarios
Estimating the impact of global warming
Short-term variations between decades are the result of natural climate variability. The light lines show the different combinations of climate and hydrological models.
The darker lines show their average.
Relative change in global
displacement risk compared with the 1976 – 2005 baseline (Constant population and
RCPs 2.6 and 6.0)
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