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Climate Change and Disaster Risk 1
Implications for policy and practice
Session 2World Bank Institute
Maarten van Aalst
Climate Change and Disaster Risk 2
Global warming
and global disaster impacts
What will global warming mean for disaster impacts?
Climate Change and Disaster Risk 3
The poorest people and poorest countries are most vulnerable
Source: ISDR/CRED
Climate Change and Disaster Risk 4
Developing countries most vulnerable
(1) Susceptibility to impacts
Closer to margin of tolerance for temperature and precipitation changes (more drought- and flood- prone areas)
Poorer nutrition and health infrastructure and therefore higher losses of human life
Coastal vulnerability 49 out of 50 countries with shore protection costs due to climate change above 0.5% of GDP are less developed countries
Economic structure Larger share of the economy in climate sensitive sectors, such as agriculture
Climate Change and Disaster Risk 5
Developing countries most vulnerable
(2) Lower capacity to adapt
Know-how and Education
Institutional Capacity
Availability of Technology
Wealth
Climate Change and Disaster Risk 6
Climate change is a socio-economic concern
Climate change is not just an environmental issue
Economic development and poverty alleviation are at risk
Climate Change and Disaster Risk 8
Risks to development
Direct physical threats
Risk of underperformance
Risk of maladaptation(development that creates or exacerbates vulnerabilities)
In addition, projects may fail to take advantage of opportunities related to climate change
Climate Change and Disaster Risk 9
From macro to micro
Kiribati: 33 atolls, rarely more than 3 meters above sea level
2100 Worst Case Scenario with Storm Surge
2100 Worst Case Scenario
Present Times
Economic damages in the absence of adaptation: 17-34% of GDP by 2050
Climate Change and Disaster Risk 10
Impacts on livelihoods right now
A dying pandanus forest due to saltwater intrusion after a storm surge
Climate Change and Disaster Risk 11
Integrated climate risk management
The way to address these concerns is not to separate management of risks related climate change from other issues (for instance through stand-alone projects)but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, sector programs, projects and other activities.
Climate Change and Disaster Risk 12
Climate risk management as an opportunity
Enhanced climate risk management
Guards investments and livelihoods in a changing climate,
but also enhances resilience to current climate variability and extreme weather events,
and improves the impact of development efforts and sustainability of local livelihoods right now.
Climate Change and Disaster Risk 13
Climate risk management at the national level
Climate risk management should be integrated in regular plans, programs and policies (including budgetary processes)
Attention is needed for measures as well as policies and regulations (including enforcement)
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