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Value of Non-Violent Action as a Political Strategy
Ryan Prior
Puzzle: Two Tipping Points
1930, India Salt
Satyagraha Government
non-interference
1935, Government of India Act
1960, South AfricaPass Law ProtestPolice kill 69 people
ANC commences terrorism, 1961
Why did non-violent action succeed in British India (1930) but fail in British South Africa (1960)?
Success and FailureGandhi is Man of the Year (1930)
South Africans Are Massacred (1960)
Research Question
Why did mass organized disobedience to an unjust law (or laws) fulfill political objectives in India (1930) but not fulfill similar objectives in South Africa (1960)?
Definitions
Non-violent action: Organized events of civil disobedience, strikes, and boycotts undertaken to compel government policy change
Efficacy
Success: Degree of socio-economic disruption: ▪ GDP▪ Participation▪ Number of Arrests
Stated goals are achieved:▪ Polity IV Democracy Trends (Post-1946)▪ Policy Changes and Legislative Victories
Sustainment of non-violent action toward bigger goals:▪ Future non-violent action▪ Violent actions (Global Terror Database—START, post-
1960)
Literature Review
Gene Sharp, Gandhi as a Political Strategist
Classic work that posits Gandhi’s strategic genius was of greater relevance than his moral and philosophical beliefs
Peter Ackerman and Chris Kreugler, Strategic Non-Violent Conflict
Rates various non-violent movements on their fulfillment of 12 principles of success
Literature Review
Steven Zunes, “The Role of Non-Violent Action in the Downfall of Apartheid” Non-violent success in 1980s
Revolutionary and Dissident Movements of the World
BackgroundLong Walk to Freedom, Nelson MandelaThe Story of My Experiments With Truth,
Mohandas Gandhi
Hypothesis
If a civil disobedience campaign lacks precisely articulated methods and organizational discipline (“coherent strategic vision”), then it will fail.
Units of Analysis (“Coherent Strategic Vision”)
Setting Functional Objectives Non-Violent Discipline
Number and size of riots Protesters:
Total Members of Organizing Organizations▪ % of national population participating
Total Number of Chapters Economic or Racial Barriers to Entry
Confounding Variables
Racist Ideology/Authoritarianism of Regime South African Republic Referendum (1960) British Colony vs. British Commonwealth
Legal status ANC/PAC were banned in SA, 1960
Singular, charismatic leadership Ideology of pacifism (present/not present) Non-Violent Tradition (Number of Past Protests) International Opinion
Soviet Influence in ANC British dragging their feet on international sanctions
Causal Mechanism(s)
Boycotts, civil disobedience, marches
Bargaining, negotiations Policy Change
Social Disruption
Findings
Specific literature of non-violent protest as a strategy
Specified rubrics for analyzing the strength and quality of a non-violent campaign
Analysis of effects. Need more analysis of conditions leading to start of non-violent events.
Conclusions and Implications
Testing Hypothesis—Could be wrong? Lessons of 1960 Failure Explain
Success of “Ungovernability” in the 1980s?
Implications for success of Arab Spring movements and for 21st century revolutions
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