Cities in European territorial development Cities of Tomorrow Workshop 1: Urban Challenges Brussels,...

Cities in European territorial development

Cities of TomorrowWorkshop 1: Urban Challenges

Brussels, June 28-29, 2010

Moritz LennertIGEAT-ULB

THE EUROPEAN SPATIAL PLANNINGOBSERVATION NETWORK

Challenge: Balancing the territory

Source: http://creativeclass.com

The permanence of spatial structures

The localisation ofprint shops and of universities in thelate 15th century

Source: Foucher (1994),represented in Vandermotten (2008)

Cities are the result of agglomeration

Source: Haliczer (1934), represented in Vandermotten (2008)

European populationaround1720, 1820, and 1930

It's the (agglomeration) economy, stupid !

• Agglomeration economies are an undeniable fact proven by the mere existence of cities...

• ...but we have no idea which ones and how they play out exactly

• Agglomeration diseconomies are also observable...

• ...but we have no idea if there is any threshold beyond which these diseconomies outweigh the economies...

• => political choice between growth and diseconomies

Challenge: big cities as motors of European growth

Source: http://www.hottr6.com/triumph/TR6motor.html

Big cities as motors of EU growth

Differences between growth rates of largest cities and EU or national average

Source: ESPON FOCI

Cities and the crisis

Source: national statistical offices and unemployment agenciesCartography: Pablo Medina-Lockhart

Evolution of unemployment between 2007 and 2009 as compared to national means(for each country, national average = 100)

Big cities are......central hubs of the post-industrial knowledge economy:

Big cities are......locations of command and control

Big cities are......gateways to the global economy:

Big cities are...…connecting nodes in networks of innovation:

Are cities autonomous economies ?

Decomposition of variance of GDP growth of cities:

EU variance =

intra-national variance + inter-national variance

NUTS3 approximations of Urban Audit cities, n=224

Challenge: ensuring the global competitiveness of Europe's cities

Source: GaWC, http://www.lboro.ac.uk/gawc/world2008c.html

Big cities are...…often fairly closed economies

Proportion of subsidiaries owned by a firm in the same city

European cities' position in the global city network

Relative location quotient of different advanced producer services in different continental blocks (all services=100)

Source: Taylor (2010), “Advanced Producer Service Centres in the World Economy”, in P.J. Taylor, P. Ni, B. Derudder, M. Hoyler, J. Huang and F. Witlox (eds), Global Urban Analysis: A Survey of Cities in Globalization London: Earthscan, accessed at http://www.lboro.ac.uk/gawc/rb/rb349.html;

Some cities are less connected than others

Based on air and rail time tables Contactability as indicator of connectivity of cities in networks

Europe's cities are losing the global race for agglomeration forces

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook November 2009

Number of cities per continental block in top 100 of total GDP in 2008 and 2025 (PPS 2008)

Europe's cities are losing out – really ?

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook November 2009, and UNPD Urban population projections

Number of cities per continental block in top 100 of GDP/capita in 2008 and 2025 (PPS 2008)

Challenge: social polarisation

Urban growth in the knowlegde economy: for whom ?

The evolution of the Gini coefficient in 5 large Belgian cities

Source: IGEAT, Growth and Social Exclusion, project for the Belgian Federal scientific policy, draft final report; cities are approximated by NUTS 3

Urban growth in the knowlegde economy: for whom ?

The evolution of the income of the lowest decile in 5 large Belgian cities

Source: IGEAT, Growth and Social Exclusion, project for the Belgian Federal scientific policy, draft final report; cities are approximated by NUTS 3

Urban growth in the knowlegde economy: for whom ?

The evolution of the number of qualified and manual jobs 1991 – 2001in 5 Belgian cities:

Thank you !

Moritz LennertIGEAT – ULB

moritz.lennert@ulb.ac.be